Tropical Storm ERNESTO

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

APPARENTLY...THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI HAS DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO.  THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 1004 MB...AND THE HIGHEST OBSERVED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 42 KT.  IT IS PRESUMED THAT STRONGER WINDS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR
THE COASTLINE OF HAITI.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS
GENEROUSLY...AT 50 KT.  SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ERNESTO WEAKENING AGAIN AS IT
MOVES OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CUBAN LAND MASS AND THEN
RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  BECAUSE IT
IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
WIND SPEED FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE HAS MADE CENTER FIXING RATHER
DIFFICULT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
310/7.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DROPS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES IN
THE STEERING PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE
TRACKS TO THE WEST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKS TO THE EAST.  THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED EAST FROM THE EARLIER RUN AND THIS MODEL HAS NOT
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN THUS FAR.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL.  THIS NHC FORECAST
IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.  

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 18.0N  74.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.1N  75.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.7N  77.2W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 22.1N  79.1W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 23.5N  80.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 26.5N  82.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     31/1800Z 30.0N  82.0W    60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     01/1800Z 34.0N  79.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN