Hurricane VINCE

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TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005
 
WELL... THE LONG AND STRANGE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES AS
TROPICAL STORM VINCE BEARS DOWN ON THE SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA
AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AND WERE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT AT 00Z FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES. HOWEVER... A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TOPS
TO -50C HAS REDEVELOPED SINCE THEN ABOUT 50 NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALSO... A LATE ARRIVING 10/2100Z
OBSERVATION FROM SHIP V2ON3 LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41 KT. QUALITY-CONTROL CHECKS
BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA
WERE VIABLE... SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT AS IT
WAS 18Z SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD
PATTERN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME. THE
34-KT AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON THE REPORT FROM
SHIP V20N3 AND OTHER NEARBY SHIPS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/20. VINCE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR VINCE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
TO NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN
PORTUGAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN BETWEEN 06-12Z. AFTER
MOVING INLAND... VINCE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER INTERIOR SPAIN. HOWEVER... WINDS MAY STILL BE
NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN 12-HOURS IN THE STRAIT OF GILBRATAR
DUE TO THE STRONG FUNNELING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE... WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THAT AREA WITH
EASTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS... EVEN IF VINCE IS AN
EXTREMELY RARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD.
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 36.4N   9.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 37.9N   6.1W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     12/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND OVER SPAIN
  
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