Hurricane VINCE

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TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005
 
THE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT BEGAN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AT ABOUT THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DID
NOT LAST LONG... AND THE CONVECTION IS JUST ABOUT GONE.  SSTS NEAR
22C AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A STEADY
DECLINE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... WHICH LEANS
WEAKER THAN A BLEND OF THE 18Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS...
2.5/3.0... DUE TO THE NEARLY COMPLETE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. 
EVEN WITHOUT THE CONVECTION... THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MIGHT STILL BE
JUST LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 35 KT.  VINCE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER BUOY
44743... OPERATED BY THE EUROPEAN GROUP ON OCEAN STATIONS... WHICH
MEASURED A PRESSURE NEAR 997 MB AT 14Z... WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN HAD BEEN ESTIMATED AT THE TIME.  HOWEVER... VINCE IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY AND NOT LONG AFTER THAT
DEGENERATE INTO A REMANT LOW LATER TONIGHT.

VINCE IS RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 22 KT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE HEADING
AND SPEED ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE LANDFALL OF THE REMNANT LOW. 
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BEFORE THE FRONT CAN ABSORB IT.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 35.9N  11.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 37.5N   8.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 
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