Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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000 FXUS63 KIND 281653 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1253 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON AS 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. MIXING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS INDITE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION TAF SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF MD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING NEARLY DUE S OFF THE ERN SHORE. IR SAT PIC SHOWS SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ACRS THE FA BUT CLR SKIES IN IL. TEMPS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 AND NWLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS. FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS/CLD CVR TODAY AND TEMPS THRU WED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PATRN SO A BLEND WAS USED. FOR TEMPS/POPS GUIDANCE WAS VERY SIMILAR SO A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED EXCEPT FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS NOTED BELOW. TODAY...WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVR MUCH OF THE FA AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE N. GUIDANCE POPS ARE NIL BUT THINK A SLT CHC IN THE N THRU 18Z IS WARRANTED BASED ON CURRENT OBS...FCST H8 WINDS AND NAM12 PRECIP FCST. BASED ON H8 TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE LAKE ESP IN THE NE HALF OF THE FA WL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY. THIS IS COLDER THAN EITHER GUIDANCE...BUT GIVE ABOVE INFO AND CONTINUED COOL NW FLOW SEE NO REASON WHY TODAY SHUD BE WARMER. TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD BE CLEARING OUT BUT NOT NECESSARILY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PD ESP IN THE NE. WINDS WILL DROP SOME...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T GO CALM WITH A PRES GRADIENT STILL ACRS INDIANA WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE SW. WITH WIND NOT GOING CALM WL STILL SEE A LITTLE MIXING SO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS WL BE GOOD BUT NOT IDEAL. H8 WARM ADVECTION WL START UP BY 6Z. GUIDANCE HAS WARMED TO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. THINK THE NORMAL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR COULD BE MAKING GUIDANCE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THIS CIRCUMSTANCE. WITH OLD GUIDANCE POSSIBLY TOO COOL GIVEN WAA AT H8 AND SFC WINDS...WL USE NAM12 SFC TEMPS WHICH SEEM TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND YIELDS LOWS FROM 29 TO 33. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL ABOUT WHERE THE LOWS WL END UP AND COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES WL KEEP THE FREEZE WATCH GOING. WED ON...WL SEE A WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...HIGH PRESSURE BLDING IN AND MOVING E...AND H8 WAA. BIG H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE MIDWEST AND KEEPS THE WX WARMER THAN SEASONAL AND DRY THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PD. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ AVIATION...AB PUBLIC...CP
