Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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000 FXUS63 KIND 232243 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 640 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008 .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 240000Z TAF ISSUANCE. AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST W OF THE STATE LINE...WITH RADAR TRENDS INDICATING ONLY A SLIGHT SHFT EWD WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THERE WL BE PDS OF VERY LT RAIN LTR THIS EVEN...ESPECIALLY OVR THE WRN TERMINALS...MODEL DATA SUGGEST BETTER LIFT WL BE MOVG INTO THE AREA AFT 240700Z...SO THE MORE SIG PCPN XPCTD AFT THAT TIME. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGEST LTL THREAT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. CIGS GENERALLY ABV 050 XPCTD UNTIL SIG PCPN ARRIVES. SOME AREAS OF IFR CONDS PROBABLE IN THE HEAVIER PCPN AREAS...BUT DUE TO ADVECTION OF LO LVL DRIER AIR FM THE E...NOT XPCTG A WIDESPREAD DETERIORATION IN CONDS THRU 241200Z. && .DISCUSSION... FCST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN ON STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WERE LOCATED ACROSS KS AT MIDDAY. OCCLUDED SFC FRONT WAS ACROSS MO/IA WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. VIS SAT PICS SHOW A LARGE DRY SLOT ACROSS MO/AR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS LIMITED TO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THIS REGION. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AXIS OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL. GFS/NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH PRECIP CHCS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A BLEND WITH REGARD TO BOTH THROUGH SAT WITH GFS TEMPS PREFERRED SUN AND COLDER MEXMOS TEMPS MON/TUES. IN A NUTSHELL NO SIG CHANGES WILL BE MADE THE FCST THROUGH SAT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT ENE. LIKELY RAIN CHCS LOOK GOOD FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT. AXIS OF RAIN WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE AREA MAINLY FROM 09Z THROUGH 16Z FRI BEFORE THE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO SOME PART OF THE AREA ENDING THE STEADY PRECIP AND PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A PEAK OF SUN OR TWO ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF DRY SLOT AND ADDITIONAL SCT PRECIP RE-DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DRY SLOT DEMANDS SOME MENTION OF PRECIP INTO THE PM HOURS. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS. FRI NIGHT/SAT...AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD POCKET WILL RE-DEVELOP FRI PM ACROSS IL AND WORK NE THROUGH INDIANA. BEST PRECIP CHCS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOWER SOUTH. CLDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF SAT DESPITE THE FACT THAT RAIN CHCS SHOULD END BY MIDDAY ACROSS MOST SPOTS IN CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS. DRY CONDS SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AM BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND PRODUCES AT LEAST SMALL CHCS FOR PRECIP LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. FCST 850MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -7C SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 40S MON/TUES WITH EXACT NUMBERS BASED UPON HOW MUCH SUN IF ANY OCCURS. FOR NOW WILL SHOTGUN LOWER 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH BOTH MON/TUES. QUIET WX/WARMER TEMPS SHOULD RETURN BY WEDS/THU AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS EAST. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...JAS PUBLIC...CO
