Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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000 FXUS63 KIND 240501 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 100 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008 .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE. AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE IL/IND STATE LINE...WITH RADAR TRENDS INDICATING A SLIGHT SHFT EWD WITH TIME. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN BAND WL SLOWLY DRFT EWD ACRS THE TERMINALS THRU THE LT MORN HRS ON FRI...ROUGHLY IN THE 240700Z-241600Z TIME FRAME. UA OBS/ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGEST LTL THREAT OF CONVECTION. DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF LO LVL DRY AIR FM THE E...NOT XPCTG WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS TO DVLP...BUT RATHER BRIEF PDS OF IFR CONDS PROBABLE IN THE HEAVIER PCPN AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN BAND. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...XPCTG CIGS TO GRADU LWR AND SETTLE TO ARND 015-025 NR THE BACK EDGE OF PCPN AREA...WITH THESE CONDS LINGERING BYD 241800Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... FCST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN ON STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WERE LOCATED ACROSS KS AT MIDDAY. OCCLUDED SFC FRONT WAS ACROSS MO/IA WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. VIS SAT PICS SHOW A LARGE DRY SLOT ACROSS MO/AR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS LIMITED TO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THIS REGION. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AXIS OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL. GFS/NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH PRECIP CHCS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A BLEND WITH REGARD TO BOTH THROUGH SAT WITH GFS TEMPS PREFERRED SUN AND COLDER MEXMOS TEMPS MON/TUES. IN A NUTSHELL NO SIG CHANGES WILL BE MADE THE FCST THROUGH SAT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT ENE. LIKELY RAIN CHCS LOOK GOOD FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT. AXIS OF RAIN WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE AREA MAINLY FROM 09Z THROUGH 16Z FRI BEFORE THE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO SOME PART OF THE AREA ENDING THE STEADY PRECIP AND PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A PEAK OF SUN OR TWO ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF DRY SLOT AND ADDITIONAL SCT PRECIP RE-DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DRY SLOT DEMANDS SOME MENTION OF PRECIP INTO THE PM HOURS. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS. FRI NIGHT/SAT...AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD POCKET WILL RE-DEVELOP FRI PM ACROSS IL AND WORK NE THROUGH INDIANA. BEST PRECIP CHCS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-70 WITH LOWER SOUTH. CLDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF SAT DESPITE THE FACT THAT RAIN CHCS SHOULD END BY MIDDAY ACROSS MOST SPOTS IN CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS. DRY CONDS SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AM BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND PRODUCES AT LEAST SMALL CHCS FOR PRECIP LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. FCST 850MB TEMPS OF -5 TO -7C SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 40S MON/TUES WITH EXACT NUMBERS BASED UPON HOW MUCH SUN IF ANY OCCURS. FOR NOW WILL SHOTGUN LOWER 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH BOTH MON/TUES. QUIET WX/WARMER TEMPS SHOULD RETURN BY WEDS/THU AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS EAST. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...JAS/CP PUBLIC...CO
