Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33 34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
000 FXUS63 KIND 241730 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008 .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR 241800Z TAFS. A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PLAGUE THE AVIATION FORECAST. WITH ITS SLOW MOVEMENT AND ALL THE MOISTURE IT CONTINUES TO BRING INTO THE AREA...CIGS WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE. IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 22Z BUT THEN THE MVFR WILL REMAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY 14Z SATURDAY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS ABOUT 15KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-22KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED. VFR CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER 14-15Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008/ PREV DISCUSSION...FCST CHALLENGE WL BE POPS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH TEMPS. H20 VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN UPR LVL LOW ACRS ERN KS EARLY THIS AM. MEANWHILE...OCCLUDED FNT EXTENDED FM THE SFC REFLECTION ACRS NERN KS TO SWRN INDIANA...AND RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A SOLID AREA OF RN SPREADING N AND E ACRS SWRN INDIANA WITH UPSTREAM RN ACRS WRN PARTS OF TN AND KY. WL GO MOSTLY WITH THE GFS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE ERN KS SYS AS THE GFS WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER LONG TERM MODELS THAN THE NAM. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...OCCASIONAL POPS THE WAY TO GO THIS MRNG. MEANWHILE...DRY SLOT ACRS ERN MO AND AR EXPECTED TO SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SO...WL DROP POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN...UPR LOW PROGGED TO MOV INTO NWRN INDIANA BY 12Z SATURDAY. MODEL TIME SECS AND PLAN VIEWS WERE BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THIS EVE WHICH WL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RW`S. WENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NRN SECTIONS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER 850-500 MB QVEC DVRG ARE FORECASTED. ONE FINAL ROUND OF RW`S POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACRS OUR NRN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT MOVE ACRS AS THE UPR LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES ACRS THE ERN GT LKS BY 00Z SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STG CD FNT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. MOS TEMPS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE...SO JUST WENT WITH A BLEND. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ AVIATION...JOHNSON
