Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31 32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
000 FXUS63 KIND 242230 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 630 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008 .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE. VORT LOBE ROTATING ARND UPPR LO CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD ACRS IL WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING BANDS OF SHWRS ALONG/AHEAD OF FEATURE. MODELS PROG THIS FEATURE ACRS THE TAF SITES LTR THIS EVEN...PASSING E OF KIND ARND 250400Z-250500Z. QUITE A BIT OF SHWR ACTVTY OUT THERE AND LIFT ALONG THIS FEATURE FAIRLY SIG BASED ON MODEL DATA...SO WOULD XPCT ROUGHLY A THREE HR PD OF TEMPO SHWR ACTVTY OVR THE TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF VORT LOBE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGEST ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION WL REMAIN ACRS NRN IL. MOST OF THE LWR CLD COVER HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NE...WITH CIGS AOA 040 GENERALLY XPCTD OVERNIGHT BASED ON WHAT IS UPSTREAM...HOWEVER SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDS PROBABLE IN THE HEAVIER SHWRS THIS EVEN. && .DISCUSSION... FCST FOCUS ON TEMPS/PRECIP CHCS FIRST 24 HRS THEN TEMPS BEYOND SAT. AGAIN...NO SIG DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS/NAM WITH REGARD TO MAIN FCST FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS SAT/SUN. UPPER SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING NE TOWARD THE REGION. DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING BUT SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LEAD TO MUCH OF THE REGION CLOUDING OVER IN LOW CLDS. TONIGHT...DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN CONTINUED SW SFC FLOW AND EXPECTED CLDS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV TEMPS OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA EARLY SAT. HOWEVER...CLDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LATE DAY SUN POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL AND GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE 50S. STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. WINDY CONDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING DAYTIME TEMPS TO MILD READINGS HOWEVER TIMING AND EXTENT OF CAA REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD COOLER METMOS HIGHS WHICH AGREE WITH GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SFC TEMPS. NO CHANGES TO NEXT WEEK/S FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MONDAY/TUES WITH SFC RIDGE AND UPPER RIDGE FCST TO MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY MID WEEK WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE AVG TEMPS BY LATE WEEK. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...JAS PUBLIC...CO
