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000 FXUS63 KIND 290415 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1215 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ARND 14 KTS ARND 14Z BUT CONTINUE FROM THE WEST. THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT DECREASE IN STRENGTH SO THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS. && .UPDATE... CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HAVE BUMPED MINS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO MOST LOCATIONS. APPROACHING SFC TROF SHOULD VEER WINDS TO THE SW AND KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS AS TROF APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SO WILL CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING AS IS...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS GOING BELOW FREEZING BEFORE 200 AM. && .DISCUSSION... FCST FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DIVING SW OUT OF ONTARIO. THIS DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH TONIGHT/WEDS. STRATUS HAS NOW JUST STARTED TO MIX EASTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND PUSHES THE LAKE ENHANCED CLDS EAST. SFC RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS OK WITH THE AXIS ACROSS MO/IA INTO MN. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND. TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP LIGHT WEST WINDS AROUND 5KTS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE AT LEAST SOME MID OR HIGH CLDS STREAM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND SFC TROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD NOT FALL TOO FAR INTO THE 20S GIVEN THE ABOVE HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LOCATIONS COULD AGAIN FALL TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING SO WE ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. WEDS/THU...SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FCST TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. WE SHOULD HOWEVER WARM UP INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY THU. FRI AND BEYOND...CONDS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FRI/SAT. TRENDS HAVE POINTED TOWARD A WEAKER SYSTEM/FRONT WITH LESS COOLING SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVG WITH WARMER THAN AVG TEMPS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A MAJOR LONGWAVE TROUGH/STORM SYSTEM FOR THE PLAINS. MAGNITUDE OF THE JET HAS PRODUCED PROBLEMS FOR THE VARIOUS LONG RANGE MODELS WITH MAJOR DISCREPANCIES IN THE DETAILS. FOR NOW WE WILL STAY CLOSER TO A GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION OF DRY BUT MILD CONDS INTO TUES WITH BETTER CHCS FOR RAIN BY WEDS/THU OF NEXT WEEK. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT && $$ UPDATE...CS AVIATION...SH PUBLIC...LJ/CO
