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000 FXUS63 KIND 251048 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 648 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2008 .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS. WHILE OTHER SITES ARE STARTING CLR KLAF IS CLOSE ENUF TO UPR LOW TO KEEP CIGS IN PLACE. SOME OBS UPSTREAM OF KLAF HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR OR IFR SO WL INCLUDE A TEMPS GROUP FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SOME LOWER VALUES AND THINK KLAF WILL JUMP AROUND A LITTLE THEN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN IN CLEAR AREAS AT REST OF SITES AS MID/UPPER COLD PCKET MOVES ACRS INDIANA THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHUD REMAIN VFR BUT AN MVFR DECK IS POSSIBLE. WINDS SHUD BE UP AOA 12KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS AS PRES GRADIENT INCREASES AND MIXING OCCURS. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET BUT WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KTS WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG. && .PREV DISCUSSION... MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FCST WL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS ALONG WITH THE WINDS ON SUNDAY. RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING AN AREA OF RW`S LIFTING NE ACRS ECNTRL INDIANA EARLY THIS AM AHEAD OF A SFC TROF ACRS WRN INDIANA AND A DOUBLE BARREL UPR LOW ACRS NERN WI AND NRN IL. GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTANT WITH THE MAJOR PLAYERS THIS TIME AROUND...SO WL LEAN THAT WAY. MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS FAVOR REMOVING POPS TODAY AS THE UPR LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES TO THE ERN GT LKS. SATELLITE TRENDS...MODEL RH PROGS AND MODEL TIME SECS FAVOR A MIX OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG AS DRY SLOT MOVES ACRS. THEN...CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS HINT AT BKN-OVC CU N AND SCT-BKN SW. MOS TEMPS CLOSE AND APPEAR TO HANDLE THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA WELL. TNGT...SHOULD START OF MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND INCRSG LOW LVL MOISTURE TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY HINTS AT AN INCRS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. STG CD FNT EXPECTED TO SWEEP SE ACRS CNTRL INDIANA ON SUNDAY. SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUITE A BIT AND MODEL TIME SECS AND SOUNDINGS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL THAT 40+ KT GUSTS COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BEING THE THIRD PERIOD...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED HEADLINES ESP FOR OUR NRN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SS AND TEMPS JUST BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. WL PULL POPS SUNDAY NGT AS BEST RH REMAINS TO THE N OF THE FA. SFC PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT SUNDAY...SO WL KEEP GUSTS TO 30 MPH GOING DURING THE EVE. REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND COLDER EARLY IN THE WEEK AS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES DROP TO 5220 M BY MONDAY MRNG. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...CP PUBLIC...MK
