December 12, 2004

EU: Winter Planting Fares Well

Summary

This year, winter grains and oilseeds planting in the European Union (EU) has progressed well.  In addition,  crop emergence and development has occurred under mostly beneficial weather and they should also be in good shape at the onset of winter. At the very beginning of the 2005/06 season, there has been no large-scale weather event to significantly limit yields. In several countries however, above-average, autumn precipitation slowed-down an already late summer harvest. This delay created a narrower-than-normal fall planting window.  For the most part, however, farmers were able to adapt to conditions, managing to squeeze their field operations in between rain events, thereby getting their crops sown.

Weather

Precipitation

Abundant autumn rainfall has created adequate soil moisture levels for winter grain development in almost all member countries.  During early fall, above-average to excessive precipitation was received in areas of northwest Germany, France, and the Benelux countries, as well as much of the British Isles. Portugal and the western two-thirds of Spain also saw excessive precipitation. There have been no references to crop damage in recent news stories, but the frequency of rain events surely reduced the length of the autumn planting window. This shortened planting calendar likely resulted in less seeded area in the affected parts of these countries. As a result of the heavy rainfall, increased subsurface soil moisture  reserves should aid crops during the period of low-moisture needs this winter. Specifically, precipitation mapped for August until October depicts developing dryness in southern Spain, and Greece, while precipitation mapped for the month of November shows continued dryness in Spain and Greece, but also spreading into France. Heavy precipitation returned in early December to these southern countries, alleviating the dryness concerns. All areas now have adequate levels of topsoil moisture, but additional rainfall would be beneficial to improve subsoils in Spain and Greece. 

Charts

Seasonal Percent of Normal Precipitation from August until the end of October reveals high precipitation levels along the Atlantic Coast and British Isles.
November Percent of Normal Precipitation  shows that monthly precipitation was concentrated in the east, while dry  weather prevailed in the west.
Early December Precipitation fell mostly on the Iberian Peninsula, where it was most needed.

 
Temperatures

A mild fall with mostly above-average temperatures (1 – 2 ºC above normal) benefited germinating and emerging crops. A brief period of freezing temperatures in the northeast occurred about two weeks early, during mid-October. More recently, cold but seasonable temperatures have returned, triggering the hardening of winter grains. Temperatures dipped further below freezing during mid-November, ending the growing season in much of the central region, including Germany and France.  The crops in Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and parts of Germany and Hungary have begun to enter dormancy (with minimums in central Europe between -5 and -10 ºC), while crops in France should follow in another week or two. 

Charts

Selected Minimum Temperature Graphs.
November Temperature Anomalies

Preliminary Reports

The US agricultural office in Madrid reported that since mid-October, wet weather hampered planting in most winter grain areas of Spain. At a time when 70 percent of the Spanish crop should have been planted, only 50 percent had been sown. News reports gathered from Hungary have also stated autumn planting was progressing slowly because of rainy weather.  Hungary however, has an additional problem this season concerning a severe lack of storage facilities.  According to news reports, this year's bumper grain crops have filled all the silos and warehouses, and have prevented 2005/06 winter grain sowings. Remnants of the corn crop have been left in the fields unharvested, while producers wait until storage becomes available.  In November, USDA's attaché in Berlin reported that Germany's winter rapeseed area is projected to increase only marginally in 2005/06.  The small area increase is somewhat of a surprise because the demand from both biodiesel needs, and food sources has been high.  Again, the primary reason for less-than-expected area in 2004/05 is the late harvest of the previous crop.  The German wheat crop lingered in the field longer than usual this year, preventing some farmers from sowing autumn's first planted crop, typically rapeseed.  Finally, news reports gathered from the United Kingdom cite high area planted in winter rapeseed, and that the crop is currently in very good condition.

Charts

Topsoil Moisture map shows no immediate dryness problems for crops, but Greece and the Romania-Bulgaria border area have low moisture levels. 
Surface Wetness map  contrasts dry areas with areas that have had recent rain events.

Initial USDA estimates for 2005/06 grains will be released on May 12, 2005.  Current area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available at PSD Online.  

USDA's previous three-year harvest data for the EU's crops of wheat, barley and corn.

For more information, contact Bryan Purcell
  with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 690-0138