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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
October 22, 2004
The USDA October estimate for 2004/05 Ukraine corn production is 6.6 million tons, down slightly from last year's harvest of 6.85 million. The 2004 growing season for corn was marked by cool, wet weather which delayed planting and development but resulted in high "green yield" (the potential yield of the standing crop). Due to the crop's late maturation, harvest began later than usual this year. Production forecasts vary widely, with some observers legitimately questioning whether Ukrainian farmers will be able to harvest all, or even most, of the planted area. UkrAgroConsult, one of Ukraine's leading commodity analysts, forecasts that farmers will be able to harvest only 1.5 million hectares of corn--roughly 60 percent of the planted area --and estimates output at 4.25 million tons. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture recently increased its production estimate from 7 to 8 million tons, following reports of outstanding early yields. As of mid-October, with harvest 27 percent complete, average yield was 3.84 tons per hectare, compared to 3.44 tons per hectare by the same date last year.
Although corn harvest began later than usual, nothing has occurred to date to significantly reduced the harvest potential. According to official data cited by APK-Inform, 33 percent of the planted corn area was harvested as of October 18, against 57 percent by approximately the same date last year. In Poltava, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts (the three highest-area oblasts), harvest was only 8, 12, and 20 percent complete, respectively. A late harvest, however, does not automatically translate to a drop in production, as indicated by the 1997 crop year. Conditions in 1997 were strikingly similar to 2004: cool, wet weather during the growing season, high green yield, and late harvest. By mid-October, less than 25 percent of the planted corn area had been harvested compared to 50 to 60 percent in a typical year. Harvest continued well into November and final production reached 5.3 million tons (the second highest output since 1990 not including the current-year forecast), with a record yield of 3.96 tons per hectare.
Nevertheless, late maturation and delayed harvest can have negative effects even if production and yield are high. One potential consequence of harvesting corn at a high-than-usual moisture content -- which some farmers are electing to do this year -- is that the grain will require post-harvest drying and farmers will incur additional fuel expenses. Furthermore, a late harvest increases the likelihood that the mature standing crop will be subject to wet weather, thereby reducing grain quality. Since corn is used strictly as a feed grain, however, it typically is not subject to the same stringent quality concerns as wheat.
With the sunflowerseed harvest nearly complete, an increasing number of combines will be available for gathering corn. Barring inclement weather, the pace of corn harvest will likely accelerate in late October and early November. The threat of snow-related harvest problems is minimal. Light snow would not cause a significant disruption in the harvest campaign, and sustained snow cover typically does no establishes itself until late December or early January.
