1.4.1 A 10,000 Year Integration
1.4.2 Two Stable Equilibrium Climates
1.4.3 An Ensemble of R15 Scenario Integrations
1.4.4 A Scenario Integration Without Water Vapor Feedback
1.4.5 Comparison of the Fully Coupled and Mixed-Layer Models
1.4.6 Detection of Global Warming Trends
1.4.7 Decadal to Multi-Decadal Variability

1.5 HYDROLOGY AND CLIMATE

1.5.1 Summer Dryness in a R15 Scenario Integration
1.5.2 Changes in Flood Frequency and Trends in River Discharge
1.5.3 Sensitivity of the Global Water Cycle to Stomatal Resistance
of Vegetation

1.6 PALEOCLIMATE MODELING

1.6.1 Tropical Cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum
1.6.2 Climate Variations During the Last Glacial Cycle
1.6.3 Paleohydrological Analysis of the Lake Victoria Basin

1.7 LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS

1.7.1 Extratropical Forcing of Tropical Interhemispheric Asymmetry
1.7.2 Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations
1.7.3 Atmospheric Test of a Method for Estimating Oceanic Eddy Diffusivities
1.7.4 Linear Stochastic Models of the Midlatitude Storm Tracks
1.7.5 Zonally Asymmetric Wave-Mean Flow Interaction Theory
1.7.6 The Surface Branch of the Zonally Averaged Mass Transport Circulation

1.8 PLANETARY FLUID DYNAMICS

[ Section omitted at author's request ]

2. ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES

2.1 RADIATIVE TRANSFER

2.1.1 Solar Benchmark Computations
2.1.2 Characteristics of Solar Fluxes
2.1.3 Parameterization
2.1.4 Clear-Sky Shortwave Radiative Flux

2.2 CONVECTION-CLOUDS-RADIATION-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS

2.2.1 Cumulus Parameterization
2.2.2 Limited-Area Nonhydrostatic Models
2.2.3 Radiative-Convective Equilibria with Explicit Moist Convection
2.2.4 Physical Parameterization Tests in Single Column Models
2.2.5 Predicted" Cloud Distributions in SKYHI

2.3 ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND TRANSPORT

2.3.1 Tropospheric Photochemistry
2.3.2 Fast Photochemical Solver Development
2.3.3 Tropospheric Carbon Monoxide
2.3.4 Tropospheric Reactive Nitrogen
2.3.5 Tropospheric Ozone
2.3.6 GCM Simulation of Carbonaceous Aerosol Distribution

2.4 ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND CIRCULATION

2.4.1 SKYHI Model Development
2.4.2 SKYHI Control Integrations and Basic Model Climatology
2.4.3 Spontaneous QBO-like Tropical Wind Oscillations in SKYHI Simulations
2.4.4 Low-Frequency Variability of Simulated Stratospheric Circulation
2.4.5 Horizontal Spectra from High-Resolution SKYHI Integrations
2.4.6 Parameterized Gravity Wave Drag in the SKYHI Model
2.4.7 Effect of Advection Schemes in Simulating Stratospheric Transport
2.4.8 GCM Chemical Simulation with an Imposed Tropical
Quasi-biennial Oscillation
2.4.9 GCM Simulation of Long-Term Variations in Stratospheric
Tracer Concentration
2.4.10 Observational Studies Using Radiosonde Data
2.4.11 Review Papers on Middle Atmospheric Dynamics
2.4.12 Dynamics of the Martian Atmosphere

2.5 CLIMATIC EFFECTS DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC SPECIES

2.5.1 Lower Stratospheric Ozone and Temperature Trends
2.5.2 Radiative Forcing Due to Tropospheric Aerosols and Ozone
2.5.3 Radiative Effects of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions
2.5.4 Radiative Forcing due to Stratospheric Aerosols

3. EXPERIMENTAL PREDICTION

3.1 FLEXIBLE/MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM

3.1.1 Atmospheric Model Development
3.1.1.1 Global Atmospheric Grid Point Model
3.1.1.2 Flexible Spectral Model
3.1.1.3 Modular Physics Parameterizations
3.1.1.4 Spectral Model Parallelization
3.1.2 Coupled Model Development
3.1.3 Support Tools for Modular Models

3.2 MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR SEASONAL/INTERANNUAL PREDICTION

3.2.1 Sensitivity to Subgrid-Scale Parameterizations
3.2.2 Ocean Model Simulations
3.2.3 Hybrid Coupled Model
3.2.4 Correction of Systematic Errors in Coupled GCM Forecasts

3.3 ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PREDICTION AND PREDICTABILITY

3.3.1 Coupled Model Ensemble Prediction Experiments (CMEP)
3.3.2 Interannual and Interdecadal Predictability of Tropical Storms
3.3.3 Tropical Intraseasonal variability
3.3.4 Relationship Between Tropical Convection and SST
3.3.5 Coupled Model Equatorial Response to Different Specifications
of Low Clouds
3.3.6 Predictable Component Analysis

3.4 DATA ASSIMILATION

3.4.1 Nonlinear Filter for Ensemble Data Assimilation
3.4.2 Ocean Data Assimilation

3.5 OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS

4. OCEANIC CIRCULATION

4.1 WORLD OCEAN STUDIES

4.1.1 The ACC and the Ocean's Large-Scale Circulation
4.1.2 Thermohaline Circulation in Isopycnal Coordinates
4.1.3 Sea Ice Studies and Model Development
4.1.4 Bottom Boundary Layers in Coarse-Resolution Ocean Models
4.1.5 Thermally Driven Circulations from a Level Model (MOM)
and a Layer Model
4.1.6 High-Resolution North Atlantic Studies
4.1.7 Biogeochemistry in the Water-Planet Model

4.2 MODEL DEVELOPMENT

4.2.1 MOM 3
4.2.2 Isopycnal-Coordinate Model Development

4.3 COASTAL OCEAN MODELING AND PREDICTION

4.3.1 Princeton Ocean Model Development
4.3.2 Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiments
4.3.3 The Coastal Ocean Forecast System
4.3.4 Atlantic Ocean Climate Variability Studies

4.4 CARBON SYSTEM

4.4.1 Anthropogenic CO₂4.4.2 Modelling Ocean Biology
4.4.3 Observational Studies
4.4.4 Ocean Inverse Models
4.4.5 Global Nitrogen Cycle
4.4.6 Carbon-13 Cycle

5. CLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS

5.1 DEVELOPMENT AND ANALYSIS OF DATASETS BASED ON
RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS

5.1.1 Archiving of Atmospheric General Circulation Statistics
5.1.2 Enhancing the Information Content of Radiosonde Temperature Data
5.1.3 Development of a Temporally Homogeneous Tropical Radiosonde
Temperature Dataset
5.1.4 Comparison of the Hadley Circulation Inferred from Reanalysis and
Radiosonde Datasets

5.2 ANALYSIS OF DATASETS BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS

5.2.1 Sensitivity of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle to ENSO
5.2.2 Interannual Variations in Upper Tropospheric Moisture and
Circulation Patterns

5.3 ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY

5.3.1 Westward Traveling Atmospheric Patterns
5.3.2 "Step-Function Like" Nature of the Extratropical Seasonal Cycle

5.4 AIR-SEA INTERACTION

5.4.1 Completion of SST Sensitivity Experiments with R30 Climate GCM
5.4.2 Midlatitude Responses and the Atmospheric Bridge Mechanism in
R30 Experiments
5.4.3 Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in the Atlantic Basin
5.4.4 Analysis of the Global Precipitation Variability Associated with ENSO
5.4.5 Coupling a New Ocean Mixed-Layer Model with an
Atmospheric GCM

5.5 DIAGNOSIS OF CLOUD PROPERTIES IN OBSERVED AND MODEL ATMOSPHERES

5.5.1 Comparison of Simulated Cloud Patterns in Extratropical Cyclones
with Observations
5.5.2 Simulation of Frontal Cloud Patterns in Very High Resolution Models
5.5.3 Coupling Between Low Cloud Type and Vertical Motion
5.5.4 Sensitivity of a GCM to Observed Cloud Properties

5.6 GFDL/UNIVERSITIES COLLABORATIVE PROJECT FOR MODEL DIAGNOSIS

6. HURRICANE DYNAMICS

6.1 HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM

6.1.1 Performance in the 1997 Hurricane Season
6.1.2 Analysis of the Forecast Results
6.1.3 The 1998 Hurricane Season

6.2 HURRICANE PREDICTION CAPABILITY

6.2.1 Extended Prediction
6.2.2 Ensemble Forecast
6.2.3 Improvements in Initialization

6.3 BEHAVIOR OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

6.3.1 Hurricane Intensity in a High-CO₂ Climate
6.3.2 Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Interaction

6.4 COMPARE PROJECT

6.5 MODEL IMPROVEMENT

7. MESOSCALE DYNAMICS

7.1 ANALYSIS OF MIDLATITUDE CYCLONES AND STORM TRACKS

7.1.1 Observed Cyclone Evolution Along Winter Storm Tracks
7.1.2 Seasonal Variability of Cyclone Activity in Storm Tracks
7.1.3 Interannual Variability of Cyclone Activity in Storm Tracks

7.2 THE EVOLUTION OF MIDLATITUDE CYCLONES

7.2.1 The Evolution and Feedback of Cyclones in Storm Track Simulations
7.2.2 Baroclinic Wave Equilibration in Zonal Flows

7.3 TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES IN ATMOSPHERIC FLOWS

7.3.1 Interaction of Fronts and Orography
7.3.2 Gravity Wave Parameterizations over the Rockies

7.4 MODEL DEVELOPMENT

7.4.1 Improvements to the Hydrostatic Zeta Model
7.4.2 Improvements to the Nonhydrostatic Compressible Zeta Model

8. TECHNICAL SUPPORT

8.1 COMPUTER SYSTEMS

8.2 DATA MANAGEMENT

8.3 DATA VISUALIZATION

8.4 INFORMATION AND PRESENTATION RESOURCES

8.5 PUBLIC INFORMATION DISSEMINATION

APPENDIX A GFDL STAFF MEMBERS AND AFFILIATED PERSONNEL
DURING FISCAL YEAR 1998

APPENDIX B GFDL BIBLIOGRAPHY

APPENDIX C SEMINARS GIVEN AT GFDL DURING FISCAL YEAR 1998

APPENDIX D TALKS, SEMINARS, AND PAPERS PRESENTED OUTSIDE GFDL
DURING FISCAL YEAR 1998

APPENDIX E ACRONYMS

*Portions of this document contain material that has not yet been formally published and may not be quoted or referenced without explicit permission of the author(s).