Press Release - Dec 19, 2007
OFFICE OF GOV. BILL RITTER, JR.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
WEDNESDAY, DEC. 19, 2007
CONTACT
Evan Dreyer, 720.350.8370, evan.dreyer@state.co.us
GOV. RITTER'S BUDGET OFFICE RELEASES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST
Gov. Bill Ritter's Office of State Planning and Budgeting released its December 2007 economic and revenue forecast today, the third forecast since the Ritter administration took office in January.
The five-year forecast period covers the current fiscal year (2007-08) through fiscal year
2011-12. The complete forecast document is available on the Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting website click here for the document.
"Modest, but steady growth has been the story for much of 2007 for the Colorado economy," said Todd Saliman, director of Gov. Ritter's Office of State Planning and Budgeting. "The economy continues to be on track. To the extent to which there is weakness in the national economy it will likely begin to impact Colorado toward the end of 2008. Thankfully, our economy is in a better economic position compared to earlier this decade, so any impacts will likely be mild.
"Of note in the December forecast is that lower natural gas prices during the fall have resulted in a nearly 25 percent reduction in the forecast for state severance tax collections in FY 2007-08."
Highlights from the Revenue Forecast:
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There was little change in the outlook for General Fund revenue, as the forecast was increased by approximately $62 million (0.8 percent) for FY 2007-08, signaling continued health in the Colorado economy.
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The consensus forecast for severance taxes conducted with Legislative Council Staff was lowered by almost $42 million for FY 2007-08, largely a result of low natural gas prices that characterized much of the last quarter.
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Total General Fund revenues for 2006-07 increased 8.3 percent, but are expected to grow at slower rates over the forecast period as moderate slowing in the national economy influences the Colorado economy, particularly through tourism.
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The forecast shows transportation revenue through SB 97-1 and HB 1310 transfers totaling nearly $1.5 billion for the five-year forecast period, after receiving $394.7 million in FY 2006-07.
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Revenue for capital construction for fiscal 2006-07 was $229 million, with an additional $212.9 million expected over the five-year forecast period.
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Under the provisions of Referendum C, the state is projected to retain $6.21 billion from fiscal 2005-06 through 2009-10. The $220 million increase in this figure over September forecast figures is almost entirely due to increases in the forecasts for unemployment insurance taxes and other fee revenue. Expected slower growth in cash fund revenue will mean there will not be a TABOR refund in FY 2010-11 or FY 2011-12.