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NASA Statement on Student Asteroid Calculations
April 16, 2008
The Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not changed its current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000) of an Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036.
Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.
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Asteroid 2007 TU24 Zooms by Earth
January 29, 2008
As expected, Asteroid 2007 TU24 made its closest approach to Earth at 12:33 a.m. today, Jan. 29 (3:33 a.m. Eastern time), and is now headed away from our planet. At its closest point, the asteroid was 554,209 kilometers (344,370 miles) from Earth, or roughly 1.4 times the distance between the moon and Earth.
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2007 WD5 Mars Collision Effectively Ruled Out - Impact Odds Now 1 in 10,000
January 9, 2008
Since our last update, we have received numerous tracking measurements
of asteroid 2007 WD5 from four different observatories. These new data
have led to a significant reduction in the position uncertainties during
the asteroid's close approach to Mars on Jan. 30, 2008. As a result, the
impact probability has dropped dramatically, to approximately 0.01% or 1
in 10,000 odds, effectively ruling out the possible collision with Mars.
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Near-Earth Object Testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives
Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics
November 2007
On November 9, 2007, two NASA representatives and four outside
witnesses provided oral and written testimony to the House
Subcommittee and responded to several questions from Subcommittee
members. Most of the discussion centered upon the status of NASA's
ongoing near-Earth object search program, NASA's March 2007 Report to
Congress on the next generation search for so-called potentially
hazardous asteroids (PHAs) larger than 140 meters in diameter and the
utility of the Arecibo planetary radar in refining PHA orbits and
characterizing their physical natures. The NASA witnesses were Dr.
James Green (Director, Planetary Science Division, Science Mission
Directorate) and Dr. Scott Pace (Associate Administrator, Program
Analysis and Evaluation). The outside witnesses were Dr. Donald
Yeomans (Near-Earth Object Program Office manager at JPL), Dr. Don
Campbell (Professor of Astronomy, Cornell University), Dr. Anthony
Tyson (Professor of Physics at the University of California, Davis)
and Russell Schweickart (Chairman, B612 Foundation).
These testimonies can be accessed at:
http://www.science.house.gov/publications/hearings_markups_details.aspx?NewsID=2033
See also the NASA's March 2007 Report to Congress.
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Predicting Apophis' Earth Encounters in 2029 and 2036
October 2007
Researchers at NASA/JPL, Caltech, and Arecibo Observatory have released the results of radar observations of the potentially hazardous asteroid 99942 Apophis, along with an in-depth analysis of its motion. The research will affect how and when scientists measure, predict, or consider modifying the asteroid's motion. The paper has been accepted for publication in the science journal "Icarus" and was presented at the AAS/DPS conference in Orlando, Florida in October of 2007.
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