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Climate of 2002 - October Southwest Region
Drought National Climatic Data Center, 14 November 2002
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Overview /
Paleo Perspective
Overview
The last two months have been wetter than normal, regionwide, for the Southwest. However, long-term moisture deficits are so severe that the region experienced the fourth driest November-October in the 108-year record, and several states have had record dryness during this period (February-October and other seasons for Nevada and Colorado, and January-October for Arizona).
The persistent dryness has had significant impacts in the area. Lake levels in Lake Mead, along the Arizona-Nevada border, have been severely depleted. According to research in the area by the High Plains Regional Climate Center (Dr. Ken Dewey),
In mid-October, Lake Mead was at 62% of capacity, about 35 feet below normal, or 74 feet below capacity. Photos of the lake level show a "bathtub ring" of salt deposits left behind when the water was at its normal level. The lake has actually reached capacity twice since it was built.
Lake Alamo, Arizona, was 138 feet below capacity, and Lake San Carlos, Arizona, was 104 feet below capacity. They are respectively, at only 7% and 4% of capacity.
According to media reports (10/20 Reno Gazette-Journal), a water shortage is forcing fast-growing southern Nevada to plan price hikes and cut deals with other states.
The regional water authority has launched a $1.3 million conservation drive in response to a drought that has Lake Mead at two-thirds of its capacity. The lake on the Colorado River can fill most of the region's water needs for another two years but is low enough to spark concern, scientists and officials said.
"This is the worst drought ever since they recorded water flows on the river," said Pat Mulroy, general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority.
"The people in Nevada should be concerned and alarmed about running out of water," said Colorado Attorney General Ken Salazar, a water law expert. "The situation we have in Colorado is a disaster-emergency."
Residents of the newest sections of Keystone, Colo., and Golden, Colo., have had their water turned off, forcing them to truck water in for drinking and bathing.
Lawn watering restrictions are in place throughout the Denver region. Washoe County officials are considering temporary growth limits to protect the Reno area's water supply. Municipalities in the Phoenix area have also placed limits on lawn watering.
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Paleoclimatic Perspective
The graph to the right shows northern Arizona October-July precipitation as measured (blue curve) for the period, 1895-2002, and reconstructed (red curve) for the period, 570-1989. The curves shown in the graph are 10-year moving averages to filter out the considerable year-to-year variability. Three 1400-year long lower elevation tree-ring chronologies, developed from both living trees and wood from archaeological sites on the Colorado Plateau, were calibrated with instrumental precipitation data from NOAA Climate Division Two (Northeast) for Arizona (1896-1989) to reconstruct October�July precipitation. The regression model explains 74% of the variance in the precipitation.
This analysis indicates that the intensity of the current drought in this area is comparable to the worst droughts of the last 1400 years.
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larger image (60 K)
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Reference:
Salzer, Matthew W. 2000. "Dendroclimatology in the San Francisco Peaks Region of Northern Arizona, USA." Ph.D. dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson, University Microfilms International, Ann Arbor.
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http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2002/oct/st107dv00pcp200210.html
Downloaded Wednesday, 24-Sep-2008 15:27:45 EDT
Last Updated Tuesday, 19-Jul-2005 08:28:42 EDT by Richard.Heim@noaa.gov
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