000
AGUS72 KALR 291704
HMDALR
ALR

HYDROLOGIST FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER / ATLANTA, GA
1122 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006 

ATTENTION/ AREA AFFECTED WFO: AKQ CAE CHS GSP ILM 
MHX RAH RNK 

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR RIVERS IN THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA: 

... UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT ERNESTO'S TRACK ...

THE SERFC IS USING 48 HOURS OF QPF IN TODAY'S
MODEL RUNS. PER POLICY... TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY IN ERNESTO'S TRACK... QPF FOR THE
24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD WAS REDUCED BY 40 PERCENT.
NO FLOODING IS FORECAST USING THESE AMOUNTS. THE
00Z MODEL RUN TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE EVENT QPF
WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS... SO IT IS LIKELY SOME
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE REVISED UPWARD.
-------------------------------------------------
THE SERFC IS INTERESTED IN THE USEFULNESS OF THIS
PRODUCT AND WELCOMES YOUR COMMENTS OR FEEDBACK ON 
HOW THIS WAS USED IN YOUR OPERATIONS. PLEASE SEND
ANY COMMENTS TO....JOHN.FELDT@NOAA.GOV


...SERFC...




$$