000 FGUS72 KRAH 021544 CCA ESFRAH NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-070000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1200 PM EST FRI MAY 2 2008 ...DROUGHT/WATER RESOURCE AND FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PAST 4 WEEKS. THIS IS DUE TO A MORE TYPICAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERN WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MIGRATORY LOW PRESSURE AREAS IMPACTING THE AREAS ON AT LEAST A WEEKLY BASIS. THESE MORE FREQUENT SYSTEMS HAVE RESULTED IN RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES (150 TO 200 PERCENT) ABOVE NORMAL SINCE APRIL FIRST. THIS RELATIVELY WET SPELL HAS BROUGHT YEAR-TO-DATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA UP TO NEAR NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL RUNNING A LONG TERM DEFICIT WHICH IS EVIDENT MAINLY IN DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE/GROUNDWATER INDICATORS. THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY TABLE (IN INCHES) OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DEFICITS FOR THE RALEIGH DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU)...THE PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO)...AND THE FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY). SITE RAINFALL RAINFALL DEFICIT RAINFALL RAINFALL DEFICIT YEAR TO DATE YEAR TO DATE SINCE 1/1/07 SINCE 1/1/07 RDU 13.87 -0.56 49.68 -7.80 GSO 13.36 -0.68 44.83 -12.47 FAY 15.42 -1.25 44.76 -17.35 DROUGHT IMPACTS EASED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST MONTH... PARTICULARLY STREAM FLOWS AND WATER SUPPLY STORAGE IN RESERVOIRS. STREAMS...WHICH HAD BEEN FLOWING AT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL...HAVE REBOUNDED TO NORMAL LEVELS AND HAVE BEGUN TO FALL AT A SLOWER RATE AFTER RAINFALL ENDS...WHICH INDICATES SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE. PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS...WHICH HAD BEEN OF GREAT CONCERN...HAVE COMPLETELY FILLED...AND NORMAL OUTFLOW HAS RESUMED FROM POWER GENERATION AND FLOOD CONTROL DAMS. THE LESSENED IMPACTS RESULTED IN A TWO CATEGORY DOWNGRADE IN DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE AREA IS NOW CATEGORIZED AS D0 (EXCEPTIONALLY DRY)...WITH D1 (MODERATE DROUGHT) CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY THE UPPER CAPE FEAR AND YADKIN RIVER BASINS. SHORT TERM FLOOD OUTLOOK TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN DURING THE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...MAY 3RD...PRODUCING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. NEITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING. LONG TERM RAINFALL OUTLOOK THERE IS NO CLEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL INDICATOR THAT MIGHT PRODUCE A RAINFALL ANOMALY...EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL...EARLY THIS SUMMER. AS A RESULT...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR JUNE AND JULY. ANTECENDENT CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MOIST...BUT IT WOULD STILL REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON MAINSTEM RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AN INDIVIDUAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING IN URBANIZED AREAS OR SOME MINOR SHORT TERM RIVER FLOODING...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL RECEIVE ENOUGH RAIN TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT OR LONG TERM FLOODING DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. $$