000 FGUS72 KMHX 130441 ESFMHX NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-202200- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1240 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2008 ...DROUGHT/WATER RESOURCE STATEMENT FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... .SYNOPSIS... RECENT RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE...WATER TABLE LEVELS...AND STREAM FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THESE FACTORS...THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED FROM SEVERE TO MODERATE DROUGHT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...AND ARE CLASSIFIED ONLY AS ABNORMALLY DRY ALONG THE COAST ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR. ...DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION... THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT WITHIN ONE OF THESE FIVE CATEGORIES: D0) ABNORMALLY DRY D1) MODERATE D2) SEVERE D3) EXTREME D4) EXCEPTIONAL THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON APRIL 8 SHOWS A CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A D1 ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...WITH A D0 TO THE COAST. A MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED IN ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DUPLIN, LENOIR, GREENE, PITT, MARTIN. *DATA PROVIDED BY U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ...PRECIPITATION... .LAST WEEK/MONTH-TO-DATE... RAINFALL REPORTS OF 150-300% OF NORMAL SINCE THE FIRST OF APRIL HAVE DRASTICALLY IMPROVED THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN PRODUCED FROM SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS. ...PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX & NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR... SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS MEASURED BY THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PDSI) COMPILED FROM DATA THROUGH APRIL 5 SHOWED A DRASTIC IMPROVEMENT TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EVENTS SINCE THE LATEST PDSI EXPECT THE NEXT UPDATE TO SHOW A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT. THE PDSI INDICATES THE PROLONGED AND ABNORMAL MOISTURE DEFICIENCY OR EXCESS. THE REGIONS ARE CLASSIFIED BY THEIR CLIMATE DIVISION. THE NUMBERS ARE AS FOLLOWS: AREA PDSI CATEGORY RAINFALL TO END DROUGHT SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS -0.78 NA 1.97 CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS -0.31 NA NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS -1.95 ABNORMALLY DRY 4.92 ........................................................................... PDSI MODERATE DROUGHT: -2 TO -2.9 SEVERE DROUGHT: -3 TO -3.9 EXTREME DROUGHT: -4 OR LESS ............................................................................ ...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW... RIVER FLOWS HAVE IMPROVED STATEWIDE. IN THE EAST MANY GAGE SITES ARE RETURNING TO NORMAL...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING FLOOD STAGE VALUES. WITH IMPROVED WATER TABLE LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE AND UPSTREAM BASINS EXPECT STREAM FLOWS TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL LEVELS...IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ...SOIL MOISTURES... SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY BY ABOUT 25 TO 50 MM FROM THE 5TH OF APRIL...WHICH HAS IMPROVED OUR SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT FROM -80 TO -100 MM, TO -40 MM TO -0 MM. THE OUTLOOKS BY THE GFS FORECAST MODEL FOR SOIL MOISTURE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN SOIL MOISTURE OF UPWARDS OF 20 MM OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ...CLIMATE OUTLOOK... CLIMATE REGIME...A MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA EVENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED AND HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY RESULTS IN BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE SOME MODERATION IN THIS PATTERN IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS SPRING, FOR THE MOST PART, IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL. THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH JUNE CLASSIFIES THE SOUTHEAST AS "DROUGHT ONGOING, SOME IMPROVEMENT" ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE EAST. THE DROUGHT STATEMENTS WILL NOT BE RE-ISSUED UNLESS A SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) HAS BEEN RE-CLASSIFIED IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST. WITH A FORECAST OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS NO ADDITIONAL DROUGHT STATEMENTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. $$