000 FXUS62 KJAX 170734 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 334 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WILL TRIGGER STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING MAX HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ONCE SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT MORE ON THE ORDER OF GARDEN VARIETY TSTM ACTIVITY ON THU AND FRI...AND AGAIN MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TODAY BUT WILL TURN A BIT COOLER ON THU/FRI AS ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE AND ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVES ALOFT TO PROMOTE RAINFALL IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER FORECASTS TO REFINE. && .HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS ARE SUPPORTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER INLAND AREAS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL AREAS. && .AVIATION...ANTICIPATE TEMPO LIFR DUE TO BKN005 CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR THIS MORNING AT SSI...JAX AND CRG WITH LOW CIGS FOLLOWING FROPA. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REACH GNV BY MID-MORNING. VCTS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTN. && .MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC LEVELS THU OVER OUR GA WATERS...WITH SCA LIKELY OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 65 84 62 / 40 20 30 20 SSI 82 71 82 72 / 40 30 40 30 JAX 86 70 83 68 / 50 30 40 20 SGJ 86 74 83 73 / 50 40 50 30 GNV 88 69 85 67 / 50 30 40 20 OCF 89 69 86 67 / 60 40 40 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ HESS/ENYEDI