000 FGUS72 KCAE 291439 ESFCAE GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041- 121400- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1038 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2008 ...SOME DETERIORATION IN THE DROUGHT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. RAINFALL ANALYSIS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GEORGIA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS ENDING ON MAY 28 INDICATED THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WAS A NARROW BAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NORMAL. ISOLATED SPOTS HAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GROWING SEASON IS NOW IS FULL SWING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. RAPIDLY GROWING VEGETATION WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE A GREAT DEMAND ON SOIL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD FURTHER INCREASING DEMANDS ON SOIL MOISTURE. THE STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA DROUGHT RESPONSE COMMITTEE CONTINUES TO DECLARE THE UPSTATE REGION TO BE IN A SEVERE DROUGHT INCLUDING LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER AND LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN SOUTH TO HAMPTON AND COLLETON AND NORTH TO ORANGEBURG TO SALUDA COUNTIES AND EAST TO KERSHAW COUNTY ARE IN A MODERATE DROUGHT. THE REST OF THE STATE WAS DESIGNATED TO BE IN AN INCIPIENT DROUGHT. FOR A MAP OF THE DROUGHT AREA IN SOUTH CAROLINA AND FOR OTHER DROUGHT INFORMATION GO TO THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS: WWW.DNR.SC.GOV/CLIMATE/SCO ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS. ... LOCAL CLIMATE TABLE... PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH MAY 28 2008 STATION PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PERCENT OF NORMAL COLUMBIA SC 15.17 INCHES MINUS 3.68 INCHES 80 PERCENT AUGUSTA GA 16.88 INCHES MINUS 1.99 INCHES 89 PERCENT PRECIPITATION FROM MAY 1 THROUGH MAY 28 2008 COLUMBIA SC 1.78 INCHES MINUS 1.00 INCHES 64 PERCENT AUGUSTA GA 2.46 INCHES MINUS 0.25 INCHES 91 PERCENT ... SOIL MOISTURE... SOIL MOISTURE AS MEASURED BY THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SHOWED SOME DETERIORATION IN SOIL MOISTURE IN MOST AREAS...BUT THIS DETERIORATION HAS BEEN SLOW IN NATURE SO FAR. THE NUMBERS ARE CALCULATED FOR DATA THROUGH MAY 24 ARE AS FOLLOWS: AREA PDSI CATEGORY CHANGE NC SOUTH CAROLINA MINUS 3.30 SEVERE DROUGHT BETTER NE SOUTH CAROLINA MINUS 1.95 DRY SIDE OF NORMAL LTL CHG WC SOUTH CAROLINA MINUS 2.66 MODERATE DROUGHT WORSE C SOUTH CAROLINA MINUS 0.75 NORMAL BETTER S SOUTH CAROLINA MINUS 0.91 NORMAL LTL CHG NE GEORGIA MINUS 1.25 DRY SIDE OF NORMAL WORSE EC GEORGIA MINUS 1.18 DRY SIDE OF NORMAL WORSE LEGEND A READING: BETWEEN PLUS 1. 00 AND PLUS 1. 99 MOIST SIDE OF NORMAL BETWEEN PLUS 0. 99 AND MINUS 0. 99 NORMAL BETWEEN MINUS 1. 00 AND MINUS 1. 99 DRY SIDE OF NORMAL BETWEEN MINUS 2. 00 AND MINUS 2. 99 MODERATE DROUGHT BETWEEN MINUS 3. 00 AND MINUS 3. 99 SEVERE DROUGHT LESS THAN MINUS 4. 00 EXTREME DROUGHT THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT WHERE THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX WILL BE REPORTED. IN THE FUTURE THE ONLY DROUGHT MEASURE REPORTED WILL BE FROM THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE DROUGHT MONITOR USES SEVERAL MEASURES OF DROUGHT INCLUDING THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX. THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX DATA CAN BE FOUND ON THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/CDUS/PALMER_ DROUGHT ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON MAY 27 SHOWS: D3...EXTREME DROUGHT...CONTINUING TO COVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH THE SOUTHERN BORDER FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA ACROSS SOUTHERN ABBEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY AND NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST YORK COUNTY. D2...SEVERE DROUGHT...WAS IN A NARROW STRIP SOUTH OF THE D3 AREA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS SOUTHERN MCCORMICK COUNTY SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NEWBERRY COUNTY AND NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST CHESTERFIELD COUNTY. D1...MODERATE DROUGHT...COVERED MUCH OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO EAST CENTRAL AND PART OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA THERE WAS A NARROW STRIP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ACROSS WEST ALLENDALE COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL HAMPTON COUNTY AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL COLLETON AND CENTRAL DORCHESTER COUNTIES. FROM THERE THE LINE MOVED NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST LEXINGTON COUNTY AND THEN NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST MARLBORO COUNTY. D0...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...COVERED THE REST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTH OF THE D1 AREA. NO AREAS IN SOUTH CAROLINA WERE CONSIDERED TO HAVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE. ...RIVER AND STREAMFLOW... OVER THE PAST 14 DAYS ENDING ON MAY 27 2008 RECORD LOW FLOW WAS RECORDED ON THE BROAD...WATEREE AND THE CONGAREE RIVERS...SEVERE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT. FLOWS IN THE 6 TO 9 PERCENTILE RANGE...MODERATE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT...WERE FOUND ON THE LYNCH AND BLACK CREEK. FLOWS IN THE 10 TO 24 PERCENTILE RANGE...BELOW NORMAL FLOW...WERE FOUND ON THE EDISTO...PEE DEE AND SAVANNAH RIVERS. A SNAPSHOT OF 34 RANKED GAGES IN SOUTH CAROLINA ON THE MORNING OF MAY 28 2008 SHOWED THAT 15 PERCENT WERE REPORTING RECORD LOW FLOW...47 PERCENT WERE REPORTING FLOW IN THE LESS THAN 10 PERCENTILE RANGE...29 PERCENT WERE REPORTING FLOW IN THE 10 TO 24 PERCENTILE RANGE. ONLY 9 PERCENT OF THE GAGES WERE REPORTING FLOWS IN THE 25 TO 90 PERCENTILE RANGE. DATA PROVIDED BY THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. ...RESERVOIR LEVELS... AS OF MAY 28...AREA RESERVOIRS WERE REPORTING STEADY TO FALLING LEVELS. ONLY LAKE WATEREE HAD A RISE SINCE MAY 1. LAKES THURMOND... MARION AND GREENWOOD SHOWED FALLING LEVELS SINCE MAY 1. LAKE MURRAY REPORTED LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. LAKES THURMOND AND RUSSELL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LAKE RUSSELL WAS ABOUT 0.7 FEET BELOW NORMAL AND LAKE THURMOND 7.8 FEET BELOW NORMAL. DATA PROVIDED BY THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE U.S. ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS. ...CLIMATE OUTLOOK... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT FRIDAY AND MONDAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR. THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM JUNE 3 TO JUNE 7 2008 CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM JUNE 5 TO JUNE 11 2008 CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2008 ALSO CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE... BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THE 3 MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST 2008 CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF SOUTH CAROLINA. ...OUTLOOK FOR THE DROUGHT... SHORT AND LONG TERM OUTLOOKS ARE INCONCLUSIVE CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPIATION EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH AUGUST. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. HOWEVER STREAMFLOWS STILL INDICATE GREAT STRESS ON GROUND WATER SYSTEMS. THIS CONDITION WILL ONLY IMPROVE WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REDUCE EVAPORATION RATES ACROSS THE AREA RELIEVING SOME STRESS ON SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUND WATER SYSTEMS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SUMMER. THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT OR DETERIORATION IN THE DROUGHT IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY JUNE 12 2008 UNDER THE NEW PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST OF CAEDGTCAE. AFTER JUNE 12 2008...THESE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON A MONTHLY BASIS AS LONG A DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST AND UPDATED FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CONDITIONS. $$ $$