Characterized by clear, cool nights and
sunny, mild days, October can be an ideal month for outdoor events. The
thunderstorm season has waned and the jet stream is usually still situated to
our
north. However, on rare occasions,
remnants of land-falling tropical systems from the eastern Pacific or western
Gulf of Mexico can bring
surges of moisture into the state, particularly early in the month. Also,
weather systems moving far enough south through the Rocky Mountain region can
and do bring strong
winds, cooler than normal temperatures and widespread precipitation, including
snow! Severe weather, while not common, can occur as it did in 2004.
Always check the latest NWS forecast for the Albuquerque
Metro Area prior to attending an outdoor event.
A feature know as the "Albuquerque
Box" produces an atmospheric wind pattern that results in balloons remaining
over the park during the morning hours. Read more about the Albuquerque
Box in the explanation below.
Temperature
and Precipitation Facts For October 1-15
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The data listed below includes 34 years of minimum
and maximum temperatures, precipitation days and percent of sunshine for the
first
fifteen days of October at the Albuquerque International Sunport.
Note: Due its valley location, morning low temperatures
at Balloon Fiesta Park are often 5 to 10 degrees cooler than at the airport,
while daytime maximum temperatures are 2 to 3 degrees warmer.
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Average minimum
temperature at the airport: 47.9 degrees (upper 30s at Balloon
Fiesta Park)
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The coldest morning low
recorded at the airport was
30 degrees in 1976, while the warmest morning temperature was 63 degrees in 2003.
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Average maximum
temperature at the airport: 74.6 degrees (mid to upper 70s at Balloon Fiesta
Park)
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The coolest afternoon
high recorded at the airport was 38 degrees in 1986 and the warmest was 91
in
1979.
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Average number of
days with precipitation (trace or more) during the first
15 days of October: 3.6 days.
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Most number of days
with precipitation (trace or more): 9 days (in 2005), 8 days (in 1974 and 2000),
7 days (in 1986, 2003 and 2004).
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1974, 1984, 1986,
1997, 2000, 2005 and 2006 were particularly wet years for the Balloon Fiesta. Meanwhile
only
a trace of rain was reported on two separate occasions in 2002, and 1995 was
the
last year in which no precipitation fell during the first 15 days of October. In
2006, 1.47 inches of rain was recorded at the Albuquerque Sunport on October
9. It was the third consecutive day of rain, leaving the metro area quite wet.
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Snow,
although rare, has been reported
during the Balloon Fiesta. Snow
fell on October 12th in both 1986 (3.2 inches) and 1997 (trace).
October 4-5, 2004 was especially memorable
along the Middle Rio Grande Valley, including the Albuquerque Metro Area, as numerous
severe thunderstorms struck the region between 10:00
pm -1:30 am on the 4th/5th and again in the afternoon of
the 5th. One of the more damaging storms hit northwest Albuquerque
and Rio Rancho at 12:30 am on the 5th. Paradise Hills was especially
hard hit with significant hail accumulation.
Temperature
Extremes, Precipitation and Sunshine Data For October 1-15
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Year |
Coolest
Morning Low |
Warmest
Morning Low |
Coolest
Afternoon High |
Warmest
Afternoon High |
# of
days with precip. (T or >) |
% of
possible sunshine |
1974 |
41 |
56 |
59 |
80 |
8 |
60 |
1975 |
34 |
48 |
66 |
83 |
0 |
100 |
1976 |
30 |
59 |
60 |
81 |
2 |
80 |
1977 |
38 |
60 |
63 |
82 |
2 |
75 |
1978 |
38 |
57 |
67 |
89 |
1 |
95 |
1979 |
38 |
58 |
78 |
91 |
1 |
89 |
1980 |
38 |
55 |
64 |
90 |
3 |
94 |
1981 |
43 |
56 |
65 |
76 |
4 |
61 |
1982 |
31 |
51 |
58 |
83 |
2 |
87 |
1983 |
42 |
54 |
65 |
78 |
4 |
74 |
1984 |
34 |
54 |
47 |
78 |
6 |
56 |
1985 |
40 |
54 |
63 |
81 |
6 |
67 |
1986 |
31 |
51 |
38 |
80 |
7 |
62 |
1987 |
44 |
54 |
69 |
85 |
2 |
90 |
1988 |
43 |
54 |
67 |
81 |
5 |
78 |
1989 |
45 |
58 |
55 |
85 |
4 |
65 |
1990 |
36 |
56 |
61 |
80 |
2 |
89 |
1991 |
42 |
54 |
75 |
86 |
0 |
96 |
1992 |
35 |
53 |
69 |
84 |
0 |
94 |
1993 |
43 |
52 |
69 |
87 |
4 |
84 |
1994 |
41 |
57 |
62 |
85 |
4 |
74 |
1995 |
40 |
53 |
65 |
82 |
0 |
98 |
1996 |
50 |
56 |
60 |
83 |
3 |
85 |
1997 |
35 |
59 |
67 |
85 |
5 |
88 |
1998 |
36 |
59 |
55 |
83 |
1 |
89 |
1999 |
43 |
57 |
62 |
83 |
2 |
90 |
2000 |
38 |
57 |
42 |
89 |
8 |
61 |
2001 |
33 |
58 |
62 |
83 |
5 |
84 |
2002 |
42 |
58 |
62 |
80 |
2 |
91 |
2003 |
45 |
63 |
66 |
82 |
7 |
66 |
2004 |
34 |
56 |
61 |
77 |
7 |
88 |
2005 |
43 |
62 |
59 |
81 |
9 |
72 |
2006 |
43 |
61 |
62 |
82 |
5 |
73 |
2007 |
40 |
56 |
64 |
83 |
3 |
90 |
Average |
39.1o |
56.1o |
62.0o |
82.9o |
3.6
days |
80.7% |
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Weather
Patterns Associated with the "Albuquerque Box" |
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The Albuquerque box is essentially
a valley wind pattern which develops under certain "stable" conditions.
During the nighttime hours, the air near the ground is cooled
by the process of radiational cooling. This process
is most efficient with clear skies, low humidity and light
wind. Cooler, and therefore more dense, air flows downslope
and pools at lower elevations such as along arroyos and river
valleys - as depicted in by the white arrows in the figure
below. The cool air that pools in the Rio Grande valley
is shallow (generally
no more
than
a few
hundred
feet
in depth). During the early morning hours this "drainage
wind" flows from north to south down the valley from
higher to lower
elevations much as any fluid flows downhill. In much of the
Albuquerque metro area, including the balloon park, a north
wind of generally less than 10 mph can result.
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Above
the surface, the flow of the air is controlled by synoptic
patterns in the atmosphere. The figure to the right
depicts the 700 millibar heights, or pressure pattern around
5000 feet above the surface, on October 5th, 2002. High
pressure over the southeast states has resulted in a weak
southerly flow
over central New Mexico. |
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The
stable "river of air" or drainage wind described
above occurs below a temperature inversion which separates
it from warmer,
less dense
air above the inversion, just as vinegar is separated from
oil by differences in density. The wind direction
in the airmass above the shallow inversion can be different than
that below the inversion.
In an "ideal" box pattern, the wind blows
in exactly the opposite direction, with a north wind at
the surface (blue
arrow) and a south wind above the surface (red arrow),
as shown in the figure to the right. A
skillful pilot can bring a balloon back to near the point of
takeoff by changing altitudes to ride wind currents in different
directions. Upon takeoff the pilot first
heads south toward downtown, then ascends higher where the winds
will take the balloon back north toward the Balloon Fiesta
grounds. |
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This
wind pattern for which the Albuquerque area is well known
occurs under stable conditions during the fall season when
no strong
weather systems are affecting the area. A local study using data
from the Albuquerque Sunport found that on average the
"box" circulation occurs about 3 days out of the first 15 days
of October. A more recent check of the past 10 years (same site) found that
the "box"
occurs on average about twice between October 5th and 15th. However, north
drainage winds are more likely at the Balloon Fiesta Park, and the box could
occur more frequently there. Even on days when the "box" occurs,
it dissipates by mid morning as the sun heats the ground, resulting in thermal
turbulence
which
mixes
the
lower
layers
of air and eliminates the low level inversion.
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Wind roses can help to illustrate the difference
in wind patterns from morning to afternoon. The wind roses
below depict the frequency and speed of the wind from 12 compass
directions. It is important to note that they represent wind
measured at the Albuquerque Sunport. |
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This wind rose depicts the
distribution of the wind in October 1985 through 2005,
during the early to mid
morning hours (9:00 am to 11:00 am MDT).
This wind rose illustrates the persistence of the nocturnal
drainage wind in the Rio Grande Valley. Cooler surface air
becomes more dense and flows downvalley. While this graphic represents
the wind data from the Albuquerque Sunport, the wind at
the Balloon Fiesta grounds is similar though the drainage
wind
is likely
stronger, due to the lower elevation and proximity to the
Rio Grande. |
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This wind rose is also for October, but
represents the afternoon hours 1:00 pm through 5:00 pm MDT.
By afternoon, the drainage
wind is gone, having been mixed out.
The winds
tend
to become
more
southwesterly,
and
usually have higher speeds than the north drainage wind.
Both wind roses illustrate that while winds from the east
do not occur frequently during the morning or afternoon,
when they do occur the wind speeds are generally strong,
often reaching speeds greater than 20 knots.
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