8:15 a.m. - 8:30 a.m.
Welcome and Opening Remarks
Guy F. Caruso
Administrator, Energy Information Administration
8:30 a.m. - 9:00 a.m.
Overview of the Annual Energy Outlook 2003
Mary J. Hutzler
Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, Energy Information
Administration
9:00 a.m. - 9:45 a.m.
Keynote Address: Analysis and Policy for Electricity Markets
Bill Hogan
Professor of Public Policy and Administration, Harvard University
9:45 a.m. - 10:30 a.m.
Break
10:30 a.m. - 12:00 noon
Concurrent Sessions AProjecting Future Liquefied Natural Gas Imports
Moderator: Philip Budzik
Oil and Gas Division, Energy Information Administration
• What role will LNG play in meeting natural gas demand growth between
now and 2025?
• What economic environment would favor the construction of new LNG
terminals to serve U. S. markets?
• What are the determining factors in the decision to build new facilities?
• Where are new terminals most likely to be built?
Presentation 1: Phyllis Martin, Senior Energy Analyst, Energy Information Administration
“LNG’s Role in Meeting Future Natural Gas Demand”
Presentation 2: David Nissen, Director, Center for Energy, Marine Transportation, and Public Policy, Columbia University
“LNG Trade Prospects in the Atlantic Basin”
Presentation 3: Richard W. Foley, Regulatory Gas Utility Specialist, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
“Regulatory Issues Surrounding Development of Import
Terminals in the U.S.”
Analyzing The Impacts of Multi-Pollutant Strategies
Moderator: Scott Sitzer
Director, Coal and Electric Power Division, Energy Information Administration
• What are the industry and consumer impacts of proposed
multi-pollutant programs?
• How will electricity and natural gas prices be affected?
• Will coal-fired generating units retrofit or be retired?
• What kinds of uncertainties will affect the analysis?
Presentation 1: Alan Beamon, Economist, Energy Information Administration
“EIA Multi-Pollutant Analyses”
Presentation 2: John Kinsman, Director, Air Quality Programs, Edison Electric Institute
“Reaction to Multi-Emissions Legislative Proposals”
Presentation 3: Sam Napolitano, Acting Director, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
“EPA’s Analysis of the Clear Skies Act”
• How much will world oil demand increase in the next
25 years and what does that imply for OPEC crude oil production and strength?
• How quickly will world economies grow and what does that imply for
primary energy consumption?
• What does the future hold for renewable energy?
• Will any fuel dethrone coal as the king of electricity generation?
Presentation 1: Linda Doman, Energy Analyst, Energy Information Administration
"Trends in World Energy Demand: Projections from the International Energy Outlook 2003"
Presentation 2: Fridtjof Unanader, Principal Administrator,
International Energy Agency
Carmen Difiglio, Divisions Head, International Energy Agency
“Energy Technology Perspectives: Long-Term Scenarios to Investigate”
Presentation 3: Mark Finley, Senior Economist, BP America, Inc.
“The Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook: Implications for the Demand for OPEC Oil”
12:00 p.m. – 1:15 p.m.
Break
1:15 p.m. - 2:45 p.m.
Concurrent Sessions B
The Challenges of Restructured Electric Transmission Markets
Moderator: Robert Eynon
Coal and Electric Power Division, Energy Information Administration
• Will Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) Benefit Consumers?
• How will Standard Market Design (SMD) affect Markets?
• What data are needed for market monitoring?
• Will incentives be sufficient to assure that transmission gets built?
Presentation 1: Douglas Hale, Senior Economist, Energy Information Administration
“Data for Electricity Transmission Analysis: Is there a Connection?”
Presentation 2: Udi Helman, Economist, Office of Policy Analysis and Rulemaking, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
“FERC’s Standard Market Design Proposal: Background and Data Implications”
Presentation 3: Russell Tucker, Manager for Public Policy and Analysis, Edison Electric Institute
“Facilitating Infrastructure Development: A Critical Role for Electric Restructuring”
Domestic Refining Capacity or Product Imports?
Moderator: James M. Kendell
Director, Oil and Gas Division, Energy Information Administration
• Ever-increasing demand for petroleum products
• Can domestic refining capacity expand indefinitely?
• Availability of product imports with particular specifications
• Other factors: transportation bottlenecks, environmental regulations,
etc.
Presentation 1: Han Lin-Lee, Refining Forecast Analyst, Energy Information Administration
“Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports from Annual Energy Outlook 2003”
Presentation 2: Michael A. Lobue, Refining Issues Manager, American Petroleum Institute
“Challenges Facing U.S. Refiners”
Presentation 3: Gloria Appell, Regional Economist, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
“Corps of Engineers Navigation Economics, Analytical
Issues and Constraints”
Improving Mid-Term Energy Forecasts for Buildings
Moderator: Steve Wade
Demand and Integration Division, Energy Information Administration
• Background on historical data, projected technology
inputs and assumptions for NEMS
• Review of EIA end-user survey data for buildings: methods, enhancements,
and issues
• Developing technology cost and performance projections through 2025
• Description of an alternative hybrid end-use and statistical approach
Presentation 1: Robert Latta, Consumption Analysis and Methodology Team Leader, Energy Information Administration
“Developing Energy Consumption Estimates by End Use for EIA’s Buildings Surveys”
Presentation 2: C. Edward Barbour, Senior Engagement Manager, Navigant Consulting
“Developing Energy Efficiency and Cost Projections of Future Building Technologies for NEMS”
Presentation 3: Dr. Frank A. Monforte, Vice President-Forecasting, Regional Economic Research/Itron
“Leveraging NEMS to Produce State-Level Commercial End-Use Forecasts”
02:45 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.
Break
3:00 p.m. - 4:30 p.m .
Concurrent Sessions C
Challenges/Issues for Controlling Energy-Related Emissions in The Midterm
Moderator: Andy S. Kydes
Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, Energy Information Administration
• The outlook for energy related multi-pollutant legislation - issues
and challenges
• Flexibly designed coal repowering projects–maintaining competitiveness
with potential environmental constraints
• Carbon mitigation and sequestration technologies
Presentation 1: Dallas Burtraw, Senior Fellow, Resources For The Future
“The Outlook for Energy Related Multi-Pollutant Legislation Issues and Challenges”
Presentation 2: Dale Simbeck, Vice President, SFA Pacific Inc.
“Gasification Repowering, The Innovation Option for Old Existing Coal-Fired Power Plants”
Presentation 3: Dr. Helen Kerr, CO2 Capture JIP Program Manager, BP Americas
“Overview of the CO2 Capture and Storage Joint Industry Project”
Air Transportation Demand - Are There Constraints?
Moderator: John Maples
Demand and Integration Division, Energy Information Administration
• Will infrastructure growth be adequate to meet future demand?
• The role of low cost carriers in highly competitive markets.
• Will the hub and spoke system survive?
• Impact of 9/11 and Middle East conflict on projections of air
travel.
Presentation 1: Amar Mann, Energy Analyst, Energy Information Administration
“Air Travel Demand Through 2025: Recovery and Factors Influencing Long-Term Growth”
Presentation 2: Bill Swedish, Principal Staff, Mitre Corporation
“Airport Capacity Benchmarks: Trends and Issues in Airport Utilization”
Presentation 3: Roger Schaufele, Industry Economist, Federal Aviation Administration
“FAA Forecasts 2003-2014: Slow Recovery and an Uncertain Outlook”
Renewables - What Affects Their Penetration?
Moderator: Tom Petersik
Coal and Electric Power Division, Energy Information Administration
• Representing intermittent generators in High Penetration Scenarios
• Actual and projected cost and performance for grid-serving renewables
• Challenges introducing renewables in integrated power markets
Presentation 1: Chris Namovicz, Operations Research Analyst, Energy Information Administration
“Recent Updates to the NEMS Wind Model”
Presentation 2: Dr. Chuck McGowin, Technical Leader, Wind Power, Electric Power Research Institute
“Renewable Energy: Opportunity or Challenge?”
Presentation 3: Jeff King, Senior Resource Analyst, Northwest Power Planning Council
“Pacific Northwest Renewables: Recent Experience and Future Prospects”