Tropical Depression GUSTAV Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 020839
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER LOUISIANA INDICATE THAT GUSTAV HAS
WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN
DOWN BUT AT A MORE GRADUAL RATE..IN GENERAL ACCORDANCE WITH THE
EXPONENTIAL INLAND DECAY MODEL.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GUSTAV
OR ITS REMNANTS WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MERGE WITH
THAT FEATURE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THEREFORE THE FORECAST SHOWS
DISSIPATION BY DAY 5. 

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 315/9.  ADDITIONAL DECELERATION IS LIKELY
AS THE STEERING CURRENT WEAKENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
THEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM SEVERE LOCAL STORMS...THE THREAT FROM GUSTAV HAS SHIFTED
TO HEAVY RAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED INLAND FLOODING.  THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON GUSTAV FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/0900Z 31.7N  93.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 32.4N  94.2W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 33.0N  94.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 33.5N  95.2W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 34.1N  95.2W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 35.0N  94.0W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 35.5N  92.5W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH