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000 FXUS64 KLIX 241510 AAA AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1010 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008 .UPDATE... SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUE IN THIS AREA UNTIL 7 PM. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 1 PM TODAY. WATER LEVELS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE BORGNE. 25 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008/ SHORT TERM... ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THIS MORNING UNDER A LOW CLOUD DECK. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS HARD TO FIND THIS MORNING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA AND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE ON THE SLOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW CLOUDS CLEARING GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING DECREASING CLOUDS LATE MORNING...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST CLEARING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY PUSHED TIDE LEVELS UP TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THESE TIDES WILL BE FALLING WITH THE NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING TO GET THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND ACCOUNT FOR WATER PILING ON NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORES. THE DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO COOL NIGHTS AND MILD TO WARM AFTERNOONS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LONG TERM... A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE GFS APPEARS A BIT FAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MAX 250 MB WIND CORE ON THE BACK SIDE...SO THIS SHOULD ALLOW A NICE SURGE OF COOLER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW THE MEX GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST PACKAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE FOR SOME SINCE AREAS OF BATON ROUGE AND THE NORTHSHORE HAVE ONLY RECEIVED .25 TO .50 INCH SINCE THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER. AVIATION... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF SITES MUCH OF THE MORNING. STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE 15-18Z...ALLOWING FOR A RAPID CLEARING. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET THROUGH 16-18Z...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER 18Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. MARINE... EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR INNER WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FLAGS FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT STILL A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT/COOL SURGE WILL LIKELY BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN ON MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 44 76 44 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 75 46 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 74 55 76 54 / 10 0 0 0 GPT 75 50 76 48 / 10 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ038-040- 049-050-057-058-060-061-068. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ570-575. MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ080. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ575. && $$