000
FXUS64 KLIX 241510 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1010 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.UPDATE...

SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUE IN
THIS AREA UNTIL 7 PM.

THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 1 PM
TODAY. WATER LEVELS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE BORGNE.  25


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008/

SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
LINGER THIS MORNING UNDER A LOW CLOUD DECK. THE COLD FRONT THAT
WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS HARD TO FIND
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA AND THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE GONE ON THE SLOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW CLOUDS
CLEARING GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING
DECREASING CLOUDS LATE MORNING...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST CLEARING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY PUSHED TIDE
LEVELS UP TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THESE TIDES WILL BE FALLING WITH THE NORTH
WINDS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING TO GET THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND ACCOUNT FOR WATER PILING ON NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FACING SHORES.

THE DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO COOL NIGHTS AND MILD TO WARM AFTERNOONS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LONG TERM...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE GFS APPEARS A BIT
FAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE MAX 250 MB WIND CORE ON THE BACK SIDE...SO THIS SHOULD
ALLOW A NICE SURGE OF COOLER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW THE MEX GUIDANCE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE
FOR SOME SINCE AREAS OF BATON ROUGE AND THE NORTHSHORE HAVE ONLY
RECEIVED .25 TO .50 INCH SINCE THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER.

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
TO ALL TAF SITES MUCH OF THE MORNING. STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION
AND SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE 15-18Z...ALLOWING FOR A RAPID CLEARING.
EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FEET THROUGH 16-18Z...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER 18Z FOR ALL TERMINALS.

MARINE...
EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR INNER WATERS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FLAGS FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT STILL A BIT
ON THE BREEZY SIDE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT/COOL SURGE WILL LIKELY BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  44  76  44 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  75  46  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  74  55  76  54 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  75  50  76  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ038-040-
     049-050-057-058-060-061-068.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ570-575.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ080.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ575.

&&

$$