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000 FXUS64 KLCH 241535 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1035 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008 .UPDATE... MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE DEALING WITH THE SHALLOW BUT LOW CLOUD DECK (JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO AROUND 1300FT)...WHICH THE WESTERN EDGE CONTINUES JUST EAST OF THE TX/LA SABINE RIVER BORDER. WHILE ALL MODELS...EVEN 12Z NAM 975MB RH...SHOWS CLEARING BEFORE LUNCHTIME...REAL TIME SFC AND VIS SAT ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS IS NOT HAPPENING VERY QUICKLY. THUS...FORCED TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER RETREAT/EROSION OF THIS CLOUD DECK. POP/WIND FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. UPDATES ALREADY OUT. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008/ UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO ZONES AND GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER. LOW OVC LAYER...LESS THAN 1000 FT...ACRS THE SW AND CENT LA PARISHES HAS SPREAD WESTWARD A BIT AND IS NOW APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER. DON`T EXPECT THIS TO PROGRESS MUCH MORE WEST...SO KEPT SUNNY WORDING FOR SE TX. REMAINDER OF AREA TO SEE CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING...BECOMING SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 24 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008/ SYNOPSIS... SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING SW INTO CENT TX...WHILE THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS ERN MS TO THE COASTLINE OF SE LA. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N CENT GULF IS PRODUCING SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ACRS SE LA AND MS...RESULTING IN SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN IS BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF THESE PER KLCH RADAR. NICE COOL NIGHT FOR WRN AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS MORNING. CLOUDS OVER ERN AREAS HAVE INHIBITED COOLING A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S...A LITTLE WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACRS THE MIDWEST WITH A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE ERN US WHILE RIDGING IS SEEN OVER THE WRN US. SHORT TERM... LOW OVER THE NRN GULF AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING MOISTURE AWAY AND ALLOWING EASTERN ZONES TO CLEAR BY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVERHEAD TODAY PROVIDING FOR PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH MILD BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED TONIGHT. LONG TERM... YET ANOTHER WEEKEND COMING UP THAT LOOKS TO BE NICE. UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NE WITH TROUGH AXIS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WITH NWRLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME RETURN FLOW IS POSSIBLE...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT FROPA SO EXPECT MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY COOL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS OVER ERN TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS AT KAEX WITH CIGS AROUND 100 FT AND FOG PRODUCING VARIABLE VISBYS BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3 SM. EXPECT TO SEE CIGS AND FOG LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BECOMING VFR BY 15Z THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN STEADILY IMPROVING AT KLFT AND KARA...BUT COULD SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH CIGS BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 FT AT THESE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FT NEAR KLCH AS WELL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A SCT LAYER AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TODAY. MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDING AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 73 48 76 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 KBPT 73 50 79 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 KAEX 71 43 75 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 KLFT 70 48 76 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$