[Printable]
Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here
000 FXUS64 KHGX 241519 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1019 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008 .DISCUSSION... CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST REASONING IN THE OVERNIGHT DISCUSSION. PLAN ON NO FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AREAWIDE. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008/ DISCUSSION... DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN SE TX. A FEW SPOTS LIKE CONROE AND CROCKETT MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S BY SUNRISE. A GREAT DAY IN STORE FOR TODAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPS BEING THE MAIN FCST CONCERN. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU ON SUNDAY AFTN. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND WILL DEVELOP RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BY LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY OVER SW ZONES. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A WIDE DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPS...WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP EACH DAY. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW WITH FRONT (PWS AROUND 1 INCH). HAVE 10 PCT POPS WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED -SHRA WITH FROPA AND EVEN THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE UNIFORMLY SHIFTED THE TROUGH FURTHER AWAY FROM TEXAS AND TAKEN THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIRMASS WELL NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. MODELS FORECAST LITTLE DROP IN THE 850 MB TEMPS BEHIND FRONT...AND KEEP 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE 585-588 DM RANGE. THINK DAYTIME PERIODS WILL STAY MILD NEXT WEEK AND HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMS. HOWEVER... MIN TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. LARGE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY THURSDAY. WILL SEE A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGINNING THIS PERIOD. 35 AVIATION... CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TAF SITES. SOME TAF SITES INLAND MAY GET PATCHY SHALLOW FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 37 MARINE... PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP DOWN CONSIDERABLY THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. NO FLAGS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER REGION TODAY. WINDS BECOMING EAST IN DIRECTION LATE TODAY AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BUT SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS WATERS MONDAY. MODELS DISAGREE IN STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING THIS FRONT. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT FRONT AND GRADIENT BEHIND THIS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. WE SHALL SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW. WE DID TWEAK WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD BUT SCA STILL LIKELY DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 37 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 48 83 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 HOUSTON (IAH) 77 48 81 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 GALVESTON (GLS) 74 62 79 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...39/38