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FXUS62 KJAX 241343
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008
.PUBLIC UPDATE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN NOTED
ACROSS JAX AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH LOW PRESSURE NOTED JUST SOUTH OF
PENSACOLA. TIGHT EASTERLY GRADIENT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA...
WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE. STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET-
STREAM WILL FORCE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH PASSAGE OF THIS LOW
AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIMITED DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S. NONETHELESS...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY WITH WARM CONVEYOR
BELT ALIGNED OVER THE AREA. SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KGNV-KSGJ
LINE WHERE LIFTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALIGN COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND
UPDATES ARE NOT PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL YIELD EITHER MVFR CEILINGS OR
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF TODAY TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
CROSSES/NEARS THE AREA AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN TAFS THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...BUOYS REPORT EAST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNINGS AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. OBS SHOW SEAS HAVE LEVELED OFF IN 8
TO 10 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND BEGIN
TO DECREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. SEAS WILL BE
SLOWER TO FALL AS EASTERLY SWELLS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH BREAKERS
OF 6 TO 8 FEET OBSERVED ON THURSDAY. TIDAL LEVELS ARE 1 TO 2 FEET
HIGHER THAN NORMAL BUT COASTAL FLOODING NOT EXPECTED THANKS TO LOW
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LOWERING RH`S TO CRITICAL VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DURATIONS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST SO WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-DUVAL-
FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
NASSAU-ST JOHNS.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
COASTAL GLYNN.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...
TODAY...LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN THIS MORNING WITH ISOLD
EMBEDDED TSTMS AT TIMES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES AND AS LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON IT WILL BRING THE WARM SECTOR NORTHWARD INTO NERN FL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SVR TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. MAX TEMP FCST
WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH WARM SECTOR CAN
PENETRATE THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS IS WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG
THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
TONIGHT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH TRAILING FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION. WINDS AND RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BUT SKIES WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FINALLY BECOMING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH INSOLATION TO KICK MAX
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S EACH
MORNING WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACRS NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
OF INLD SERN GA AND SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
PATCHY FROST IN SOME LOCATIONS.
&&
$$
ECZ