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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS62 KCAE 241324
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
924 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER LOW NEAR MKC WITH DRY AIR WRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE LOW
ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. VWP WIND PROFILES SHOW
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST...AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC IN THE
LAYER BETWEEN 1 KM AND 5 KM.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF
THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME
REINFORCED THROUGH THE DIABATIC COOLING PROCESS. WENT BELOW ALL
MOS GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO LOCAL WEDGE SCHEME.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED DURING THE 18Z TO 06Z
TIME FRAME AND QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL
POPS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT POPS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ON AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH
SOME LOCATIONS REACHING NEAR AN INCH IN TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
THE DRY SLOT BENEATH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD...EXPECT ANY LINGERING RAIN TO MOVE OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS MAINTAIN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A COOL
DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF FROST AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

CONTINUED WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$