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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KBMX 241600
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1059 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

BEGINNING TO WONDER IF THE CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T A BIT TOO
OPTIMISTIC...REGARDING THE ENDING OF THE RAIN AND THE BEGINNING OF
THE CLEARING. THE RAIN DID TAKE ITS SWEET TIME GETTING TO NORTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLY TYPE RAIN COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOWED LARGE AERA OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT STRETCHED BEYOND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
WHILE THIS RELATIVELY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ERODE ON ITS
BACK AS THE WHOLE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE EAST...IT IS GOING TO HAVE
TO COME EAST PRETTY QUICKLY TO START CLEARING THINGS OUT HERE IN THE
AFTERNOON (AS CURRENTLY FORECAST).

THEREFORE...I PLAN ON UPDATING THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE LIGHT
RAIN A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO DELAY THE ONSET OF
CLEARING AS WELL.  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES...LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.

/61/

INTERESTING SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS FOR POPS TONIGHT...
RANGING FROM 1 TO 100 AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...WITH STANDARD
DEVIATIONS OF 36 PERCENT AROUND THE MEAN. NOT MUCH HELP THERE. ALSO
OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM...LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS HAVE SETTLED
DOWN...SO ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST IS LARGELY ON UNCHANGED AND ON
TRACK...ALBEIT A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS HERE AND THERE. STRONG DRY
REINFORCING COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY IN
AMPLIFYING PATTERN...DEFINITELY USHERING THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE
FALL SEASON. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE WIND SETTLES DOWN MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FROST IS AND TEMPS APPROACHING
FREEZING ARE CONCERNS AND CONSIDERATIONS ON THE TABLE. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT CALM WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FROST
A CONCERN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS IS AN OUTLIER BRINGING DOWN YET
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DOWN OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF A TROUGH...BUT PATTERN IS TENDING TO
DEAMPLIFY A BIT. NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE...SO
FOR NOW WENT WITH THE CONCEPT THAT THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. STILL...END RESULTS ARE MINIMAL
DIFFERENCES...MAINLY IMPACTING TEMPERATURES...AS NEITHER SOLUTION
HAS ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INDICATE GFS IS CLEARLY A BIT MORE UNSETTLED
THAN USUAL...ALL THE MORE REASON TO DOUBT THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION.

81

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING ALONG WITH PERIODIC AREAS OF RAIN. LOOK FOR SOME
IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS THE WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS
LIFT TO VFR AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT EARLY EVENING. DUE TO
HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE EAST...FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ANB, MGM AND TOI
OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AT THE OTHER SITES AS WELL. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE IF ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS.

88

&&


.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$