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000
FXUS64 KBMX 062002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
302 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A MESSY PICTURE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...WITH A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS TO NEGOTIATE. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS
ARE UP FOR GRABS TO SOME EXTENT...FAIRLY CONFIDENT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME OF THE MUCH NEEDED RAIN IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK...WEATHER PATTERN IS A BIT
LACKADAISICAL...BEFORE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A
DEEP TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT
TRYING TO FORM/GENERATE SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL LIFT AND MOVING THE AREA INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER LOW. I MAY
BE JUST A TAD FAST ON PRECIP ONSET...BUT BELIEVE MOST AREAS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. CERTAINLY...ONE WAY OR THE OTHER... MOISTURE IS ON
THE INCREASE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. GFS HAS COME MORE
IN LINE WITH NAM WITH REGARDS TO GENERATING PRECIP DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...AND BY TOMORROW NIGHT IS CATEGORICAL. BELIEVE WE WILL
SEE A TIGHT EAST TO WEST GRADIENT IN POPS TOMORROW...WITH NIL
EAST/CATEGORICAL WEST. TUESDAY NIGHT...MAV IS TOUGH TO BEAT WHEN
IT GOES CATEGORICAL WITHIN THE FIRST 3 FORECAST PERIODS...SO I
WILL NOT TRY TO DO SO.

ONE SIGNIFICANT QUESTION IS WITH REGARDS POSSIBILITY FOR
THUNDER...AND ANY CONCERNS FOR STRONG STORMS. AT THIS POINT...
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. BAROTROPIC STRUCTURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT DYNAMIC PARAMETERS. WHILE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. THAT SAID...THE
STORM PREDICTION HAS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA HIGHLIGHTED BY A SEE
TEXT IN THEIR DAY 2 AND DAY 3 OUTLOOKS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET.

STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
SHOULD BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN SO THE RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA LOOKS UNLIKELY.  THE BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL RESIDE FARTHER SOUTH.  LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...IF
DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO PUSH IN QUICKER THAN MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...A
FEW ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCING STORMS COULD BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN ALABAMA.  THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE 850 TROUGH LAGGING ONLY BY A FEW HOURS MARKING
THE END OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
WEAKENING REMNANT LOW...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND EURO EVENTUAL BUILD
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE EURO IS
TENDING TO LET SOME POPS LEAK IN UNDER THE RIDGE...GFS IS NOT
QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AND KEEPS THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...SHUNTING
ANY PRECIP TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GFS POPS ARE MARGINAL...SO AT
THIS POINT...INCLINED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OF NOTE...12Z MEX GUIDANCE GOES CRAZY ON
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL
TEMPER THOSE HIGHS DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

JD/81
12/SIRMON


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MID AND SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT THAT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SO MAY NOT HAVE VIS
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME HAZE MAY RETURN DUE TO THE
MOISTURE INFLUX.  OTHER THAN THAT...NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS.

17/KLAWS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  77  59  71  55 /   0  10  90  80  40
ANNISTON    61  77  64  73  56 /   0  10  90  80  40
BIRMINGHAM  63  77  64  73  57 /  10  60  90  70  30
TUSCALOOSA  62  77  64  76  59 /  10  90  90  50  20
CALERA      62  78  64  74  57 /  10  70  90  70  30
AUBURN      60  74  63  71  59 /  10  20  90  80  30
MONTGOMERY  65  78  65  76  59 /  20  80  90  60  20
TROY        64  75  67  74  59 /  20  80  80  70  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

81/81/17