Rava L, Downs AM, Heisterkamp SH, Houweling H, Pasqualucci C, Rossi C, Schinaia G; International Conference on AIDS.
Int Conf AIDS. 1998; 12: 941-2 (abstract no. 43487).
Ctr. Rif Aids IRCCS L. Spallazani, Rome, Italy.
Study for the EU Concerted Action on Multinational AIDS Scenarios (BMH1-CT94-1723). OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and forecast the spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Italy. To compare and validate two statistical methods both developed to estimate HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence, while focusing attention on different aspects of the epidemic. METHODS: An Empirical Bayesian Back-Calculation (EB-BC), and the Mover Stayer (M-S) model, a stochastic dynamic compartmental model, have both been applied to incident AIDS cases reported up to September 1997 and diagnosed until March 1997 among adults in Italy. In order to obtain comparable results, the two methods were applied using homogeneous and updated input parameters describing the natural history and the surveillance aspects of the epidemic in Italy. RESULTS: Through the M-S model the cumulative incidence of HIV infections and AIDS cases until the end of 1997 were estimated, respectively at 103,965 and 46,380, and the estimated HIV infection curve peaked in 1988 with 14,942 infections. For the same period the EB-BC provided estimates of the cumulative incidences of HIV infection and AIDS diagnosis respectively as 133,087 and 39,819, and the estimated peak of the HIV infection curve is located in 1986 with 18,165 infections. Moreover the EB-BC suggested that the HIV epidemic reached its maximum spread between 1986 and 1989 in each transmission category, except for heterosexually-infected women among whom, the estimated HIV incidence was still increasing at the end of the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The consistency of the results suggests that the two methods, while focusing on different aspects of the epidemic, are both able to correctly estimate the HIV/AIDS spread. The synergic use of the EB-BC and of the M-S model is therefore encouraged since, by providing reliable HIV/AIDS stage-specific estimates by transmission category, can be useful for targeting and planning the prevention interventions, and provide a valuable source of information for developing and evaluating the effectiveness of therapies.
Publication Types:
Keywords:
- Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
- Adult
- Disease Outbreaks
- Female
- HIV Infections
- HIV Seropositivity
- Humans
- Incidence
- Italy
- Models, Biological
- Prevalence
Other ID:
UI: 102231650
From Meeting Abstracts