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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Sep 15, 2008
Updated: Mon Sep 15 08:46:03 UTC 2008
Note:
A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period
indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
| D4 | Thu, Sep 18, 2008 - Fri, Sep 19, 2008 |
D7 | Sun, Sep 21, 2008 - Mon, Sep 22, 2008 |
| D5 | Fri, Sep 19, 2008 - Sat, Sep 20, 2008 |
D8 | Mon, Sep 22, 2008 - Tue, Sep 23, 2008 |
| D6 | Sat, Sep 20, 2008 - Sun, Sep 21, 2008 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150845
SPC AC 150845
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2008
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A DECIDEDLY LOW AMPLITUDE
TRANSITION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BOTTLED UP S OF THE CURRENT FRONT THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SFC
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE COUNTRY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH AN EVOLUTION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERNS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH WITH THE
HANDLING OF N PAC BASIN TROUGHS INTO THE PAC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN W.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE ALONG 155W AT 08Z MONDAY IS FCST TO REACH THE PAC
NW CST ON FRIDAY...BUT AFTER THAT TIME...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY VARIED ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVE AS IT
TRANSLATES EWD. 00Z NAEFS AND LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LESS
AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS
REACHING THE NRN ROCKIES/HI PLNS OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS APT
TO BE MODEST AT BEST OWING TO AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE BLOCKING
ROBUST RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE...A HIGHER END SVR EVENT IS NOT
LIKELY...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN MODEL PERFORMANCE RENDERS A LOW
PREDICTABILITY SVR OTLK.
..RACY.. 09/15/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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