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000 FXUS62 KTAE 180134 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 934 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008 .UPDATE...COLD FRONT IS WELL DEPICTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WITH WIND SHIFT/PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATION FROM NEAR AUGUSTA TO ALBANY TO DESTIN AT 01Z. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BAND OF SHOWERS PERSISTS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE OVER LAST FEW HOURS. OVERALL...EXPECT THIS DIMINISHING TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BEST LIFT PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES BELOW 60 PERCENT WITH 30S AND 40S ELSEWHERE. OTHER THAN UPDATING THE POPS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS OR ZONES. && .AVIATION...A LARGE AREA...ABOUT 100 NM WIDE...OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. UPDATED TIMING FOR THE WEATHER AT TAF SITES ARE AS FOLLOWS...DHN 00-04Z...ABY 01-05Z...PFN 02-06Z...TLH 05-09Z AND VLD 06-10Z. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ZONES BY 12-13Z SATURDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW AT ALL TAF SITES. && .MARINE...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CHANGE WITH FROPA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. WILL ADD THIS HEADLINE TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 60 80 51 78 49 / 40 10 0 0 0 PANAMA CITY 62 81 54 78 54 / 40 10 0 0 0 DOTHAN 56 78 49 75 48 / 50 0 0 0 0 ALBANY 57 78 50 76 47 / 50 10 0 0 0 VALDOSTA 61 79 51 76 49 / 40 10 0 0 0 CROSS CITY 64 81 52 79 49 / 20 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN... GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR... WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON... JACKSON...WASHINGTON. GM...NONE. && $$ CAMP/WATSON