Cui J, Law M, McDonald A, Kaldor J; Australasian Society for HIV Medicine. Conference.

Annu Conf Australas Soc HIV Med. 1997 Nov 13-16; 9: 71 (abstract no. IS 52).

National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Australia.

OBJECTIVE: Current trends in AIDS incidence are useful for health decision makers. However, due to reporting delays, information about AIDS patients diagnosed most recently is usually not available in the AIDS registry. This paper corrects the effect of reporting delays and assesses current trends in AIDS incidence in Australia. METHODS: Influential factors on reporting an AIDS diagnosis are adjusted by a regression method, the proportional retro-hazards model. AIDS incidences are obtained by inflating each reported individual by a factor which depends on these covariates. RESULTS: After adjusting for reporting delays, we found that the AIDS incidence in Australia is declining from the peak of about 240 cases per quarter in 1994 to about 180 cases per quarter in 1996. Although the cumulative number of AIDS cases reported by 30 June 1997 was 7407, we estimate that the true number is around 7800. Detailed trends are illustrated for each State/Territory, exposure category and AIDS-defining illness. CONCLUSIONS: The AIDS incidence in Australia is declining slowly from the mid-1990's, which is a result of the availability of treatment of the HIV anti-infectives and the natural consequence of the declining HIV incidence since the mid-1980's.

Publication Types:

• Meeting Abstracts

Keywords:

• Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
• Australia
• HIV Infections
• HIV Seropositivity
• Humans
• Incidence
• Physical Examination
• Proportional Hazards Models
• Registries
• epidemiology
• methods
• organization & administration

Other ID:

• 98095118

UI: 102226230

From Meeting Abstracts