Smith R, Mortimer D, Coast J; International Society of Technology Assessment in Health Care. Meeting (19th : 2003 : Canmore, Alta.).
Annu Meet Int Soc Technol Assess Health Care Int Soc Technol Assess Health Care Meet. 2003; 19: abstract no. 34.
University of East Anglia_School of Medicine, Health Policy and Practice, Norwich, NR4 7TJ Norfolk UK Tel: +44 1603 593617, Fax: +44 1603 593604, E-mail: Richard.Smith@uea.ac.uk
OBJECTIVES: The emergence and spread of anti-microbial resistant disease across a large number of infectious bacteria and viruses poses the threat of a 'post-antibiotic era', with potentially catastrophic implications for health outcomes and treatment costs. There are many possible policies that could be used to contain the emergence and transmission of resistance, but the evidence base is weak and the acquisition of strong empirical evidence is likely to be difficult. Although one option for assessing the impact of different strategies is the use of models, epidemiological models are typically highly specific to particular diseases and thus of limited assistance in assessing the value of policies to reduce resistance across a variety of micro-organisms. METHODS: This paper describes the development of a flexible micro-economic model linking total consumption of anti-microbials and treatment failure to the development and spread of anti-microbial resistant disease, as a first step in the formation of a model for use in choosing between alternative policies. The model is disease-based, allowing for greater precision in determining the value of particular policies, developed using three disease/context combinations to identify similarities and differences between disease-specific models as a basis for this more general anti-microbial resistance disease model. RESULTS: Results will be presented for the contexts of drug-resistant falciparum malaria in Cambodia, and drug-resistant TB in the UK. Predictions for total health care expenditure and disease incidence are reported under various scenarios. DISCUSSION: The micro-economic model described can be adapted for different disease, geographical and policy contexts, thus aiding comparative assessment of strategies to tackle AMR.
Publication Types:
Keywords:
- Anti-Bacterial Agents
- Bacteria
- Cambodia
- Health Care Costs
- Incidence
- Models, Biological
- Models, Economic
- economics
- hsrmtgs
Other ID:
UI: 102275952
From Meeting Abstracts