000 FXUS62 KFFC 090930 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO ADD AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 530 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2008 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ALABAMA WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS PARKED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHWARD INITIALLY ALONG THE AL AND GA STATE LINE...THEN CURVING ACROSS NORTH GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINA'S. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...JUST EAST OF ATLANTA...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE NOTED ELSEWHERE. GFS INITIALIZED VERY WELL AT 06Z AND CONTINUES TO BE MODEL OF CHOICE. GFS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING OVER THE STATE TODAY AND SHOULD SHUNT THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. AMPLE FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITIES...WITH 500 TO 1500 CAPES AND -1 TO -3 LI'S SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALL SUGGEST HOLDING ONTO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS TODAY. WILL SHIFT THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE STATE. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW PARKS OFF THE GA COAST AND WEAKENS...WHILE SURFACE TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SETS UP A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD INTO THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEST INSTABILITIES SUGGEST HOLDING ONTO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE CAPES APPROACH 1000 J/KG. FOR SATURDAY... THE UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITIES SOUTHWARD...WARRANTING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH. OTHERWISE...MET AND MAV TEMPS ARE CLOSE AND LOOK REASONABLE SO LEANED TOWARD THE MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COOL...CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTH GA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE... ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AT BEST. && .AVIATION... AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. MOST SITES REPORTING LIFR CEILINGS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AHN WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS APPROACHING. WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH 15-16Z. WHEN THEY WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR THROUGH PEAK HEATING HOURS. AFTER 00Z...WITH SURFACE LOW STILL OVER SOUTH GEORGIA...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN AND REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY DEVIATION FROM LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL BE IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITE. AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ABD SOUTH GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER ANY OF THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN BETTER THAN FORECAST THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL STAY MVFR...EXCEPT THE USUAL SUSPECTS AHN/FTY...WITH IFR POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 7KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN DIMINISHING TO 3KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 74 60 77 62 78 / 50 40 30 20 20 ATLANTA 76 62 78 63 77 / 30 10 10 5 10 BLAIRSVILLE 73 57 77 55 77 / 20 20 20 10 10 CARTERSVILLE 76 59 80 62 81 / 20 10 5 5 10 COLUMBUS 79 63 83 66 82 / 20 5 10 5 20 GAINESVILLE 72 61 76 61 78 / 40 20 20 10 10 MACON 79 62 83 65 81 / 50 20 20 10 20 ROME 80 61 82 61 82 / 20 5 10 5 10 PEACHTREE CITY 75 60 80 59 77 / 20 10 10 5 10 VIDALIA 79 65 82 64 80 / 60 40 30 20 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 39