000
FXUS62 KCAE 091123
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
723 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE SE TODAY...AND STALL TO OUR 
SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ONLY INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS OR
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR FA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER GA...WHICH APPEAR WILL AFFECT OUR FA
LATER TODAY. SO...THINK LIKELY POPS FOR LATER TODAY/THIS AFTERNOON
STILL GOOD...BUT WILL KNOCK DOWN THE MORNING POP TO CHANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ALA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. LATEST VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT APPROACHING THE WESTERN FA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATING MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
FA...MOVING EAST. MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENING TODAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT
THINK LIKELY POPS STILL IN ORDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITIES
PLUS STILL SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE UPPER LOW TO OUR S 
AND SE FRIDAY INTO SAT. BACK DOOR FRONT TO MOVE DOWN INTO NC BY 
FRIDAY...AND GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH OUR FA SAT/SAT NT. WILL CONTINUE 
CHANCE POPS...TRENDING HIGHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH CLOSER TOP THE 
SYSTEM ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE 
SYSTEM...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND PUSH WEST OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO 
OUR REGION. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS 
DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER AREA NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR
THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 12Z-16Z THEN
MVFR CONDITIONS 16Z-06Z. BECOMING IFR AGAIN 06Z-12Z.

WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07