[top]
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200537 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AT KHSV/KMSL. LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE SERN SECTOR OF
AN UPR TROF IS GENERATING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN ERN MISS/WRN AL
TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST WHERE
MOIST AXIS AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN. BUFR SOUNDINGS/OBS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RELATIVELY DRY LYR UP THRU ~800MB...BUT BRIEF
CONVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR -SHRA OR VIRGA AT OR INVOF KMSL DURING
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE WITH -SHRA AT KMSL UNTIL
09Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE SERN FLANK OF PARENT UPR TROUGH IS
HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY IN E MISS/WRN AL
THIS EVENING. OVERALL...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
UPR-LVL PVA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND LOW- LVL THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN OUR WRN AREAS. THUS...HAVE ONLY RAISED TO
20-30 POPS FOR LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...FRANKLIN...AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES AT THIS POINT. THINK THAT THE BETTER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST. NEVERTHELESS...WILL WATCH TRENDS AND MAKE
ANY FURTHER UPDATES AS NECESSARY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...SL/KDW
DISCUSSION...KDW.03
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200446
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.
THE ACTIVITY SHOWS NO SIGN OF DIMINISHING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE
NW COUNTIES AND RAISED POPS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WEST
ALABAMA. BMX SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDS UPWARD TO
850MB AND DO NOT EXPECT RAIN OVER WEST ALABAMA TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A MID CLOUD
DECK MOVING IN BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z. WINDS WILL RELAX BY 2Z AND WILL
PICK BACK UP BY 18Z TO AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL SEE SOME BKN
CUMULUS AS WELL AFTER 18Z. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES. WINDS CALM DOWN AFTER SUNSET. DID ADD
VCSH FOR TCL OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z...AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WEST.
16
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMOB 200354 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1052 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 20/06Z...A BIT OF LIGHT FOG AROUND THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH AN OCCASIONAL POCKET OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MOST ANY WHERE. SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH MTR`S REPORTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER DECKS AND A
FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING NORTH JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
BEFORE DAYLIGHT WILL LIKELY BE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL...MAINLY
AL/MS BORDER FROM MOBILE TO CHOCTAW COUNTY. MVFR AFTER SUNRISE WILL
SCATTERED OUT UNTIL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. /11
******************************PREVIOUS****************************
.UPDATE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WAS DRAPED OVER THE GULF WITH
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL ENERGY MAXIMUM WAS LIFTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY NOTED ON
RADAR IMAGERY. WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE SLOW
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER FORCING...FORECASTERS HAVE
TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
OVERNIGHT TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN ZONES. /10
&&
.AVIATION...VFR SKIES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
PATCHY MIST. STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...BUT MORE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.................FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.........................
.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...SURFACE RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY. BUT ANOTHER WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY FORMING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A REX
BLOCK...BUT MOVES RATHER UNLIKE ONE. WITH THE WEAK FRONT REMAINING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA TO SHOOT THROUGH THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND
INTO THE ISENTROPIC CONVEYOR BELT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GULF STATES.
WHEN THE RESULT OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES
NORTHWARD REACHES THE COAST BY SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE...AND THIS COULD HAPPEN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. WE DO NOT
BELIEVE IT WILL MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN WITHIN 10 OR 20 MILES
OF THE BEACH. OTHERWISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THICK MULTIPLE CLOUD
DECKS AND EVAPORATIVELY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER.
.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL DECREASE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SEVERAL COUNTIES INLAND AS WELL. A
REBOUNDING UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /77 DALY
&&
.MARINE...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ON AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE SURFACE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS MUCH WEAKER IN THE LATEST GFS RUN. HAVE OPTED
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND CURRENT PACKAGE AND GO WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE STUBBORN WEDGE WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
/29 EVERSOLE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER THE
AREA. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AIR IN
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN FREE PERIOD. HOWEVER
DISPERSION WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE IN THE 20S TO 40S FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE
WEEK.
/77 DALY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 65 80 64 82 / 30 50 40 40
PENSACOLA 67 82 66 84 / 20 40 30 30
DESTIN 73 79 72 80 / 20 30 20 30
EVERGREEN 59 80 59 82 / 20 30 20 30
WAYNESBORO 60 80 59 80 / 30 40 30 40
CAMDEN 59 81 59 81 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200314
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1010 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND TRACK NORTHWARD.
THE ACTIVITY SHOWS NO SIGN OF DIMINISHING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE
NW COUNTIES AND RAISED POPS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WEST
ALABAMA. BMX SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER EASTERLY FLOW EXTENDS UPWARD TO
850MB AND DO NOT EXPECT RAIN OVER WEST ALABAMA TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A MID CLOUD DECK MOVING
IN BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. WINDS WILL RELAX BY 2Z AND WILL PICK BACK UP
BY 18Z TO AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL SEE SOME BKN CUMULUS AS WELL
AFTER 18Z. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF TAF
SITES. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ANY TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT.
16
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200243 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
943 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...ADDED CHANCE/SLGT CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
FOR OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES...INCLUDING LAWRENCE. RAISED TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST TOO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE SERN FLANK OF PARENT UPR TROUGH IS
HELPING TO GENERATE SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY IN E MISS/WRN AL
THIS EVENING. OVERALL...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY THUS FAR. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT UPR-LVL PVA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND LOW- LVL
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN OUR WRN AREAS.
THUS...HAVE ONLY RAISED TO 20-30 POPS FOR
LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...FRANKLIN...AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AT THIS
POINT. THINK THAT THE BETTER LIFT/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
WEST. NEVERTHELESS...WILL WATCH TRENDS AND MAKE ANY FURTHER
UPDATES AS NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES FOR THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN DECKS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MO/IL WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AL OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THOUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER SO DON`T EXPECT ANY OTHER ACTIVITY
OTHER THAN A FEW TO SCT CU THAT MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KDW.03
AVIATION...AMP.24
000
FXUS64 KMOB 200211 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
911 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WAS DRAPED OVER THE GULF WITH
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL ENERGY MAXIMUM WAS LIFTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY NOTED ON
RADAR IMAGERY. WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE SLOW
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER FORCING...FORECASTERS HAVE
TRIMMED BACK THE COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OVERNIGHT TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN ZONES. /10
&&
.AVIATION...VFR SKIES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
PATCHY MIST. STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...BUT MORE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.................FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.........................
.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...SURFACE RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY. BUT ANOTHER WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY FORMING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A REX
BLOCK...BUT MOVES RATHER UNLIKE ONE. WITH THE WEAK FRONT REMAINING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
VORTICITY MAXIMA TO SHOOT THROUGH THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND
INTO THE ISENTROPIC CONVEYOR BELT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GULF STATES.
WHEN THE RESULT OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES
NORTHWARD REACHES THE COAST BY SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE...AND THIS COULD HAPPEN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. WE DO NOT
BELIEVE IT WILL MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN WITHIN 10 OR 20 MILES
OF THE BEACH. OTHERWISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THICK MULTIPLE CLOUD
DECKS AND EVAPORATIVELY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER.
.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL DECREASE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SEVERAL COUNTIES INLAND AS WELL. A
REBOUNDING UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /77 DALY
&&
.MARINE...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ON AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE SURFACE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS MUCH WEAKER IN THE LATEST GFS RUN. HAVE OPTED
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND CURRENT PACKAGE AND GO WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE STUBBORN WEDGE WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
/29 EVERSOLE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER THE AREA.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AIR IN THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN FREE PERIOD. HOWEVER
DISPERSION WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE IN THE 20S TO 40S FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE
WEEK.
/77 DALY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 65 80 64 82 / 30 50 40 40
PENSACOLA 67 82 66 84 / 20 40 30 30
DESTIN 73 79 72 80 / 20 30 20 30
EVERGREEN 59 80 59 82 / 20 30 20 30
WAYNESBORO 60 80 59 80 / 30 40 30 40
CAMDEN 59 81 59 81 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200000 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES FOR THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN DECKS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MO/IL WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AL OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THOUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER SO DON`T EXPECT ANY OTHER ACTIVITY
OTHER THAN A FEW TO SCT CU THAT MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... PCPN CURRENTLY
HUGGING THE MS/AL LINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A VORT
MAX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF ENERGY NW OF THE CWA.
THIS WAVE IS ONE OF SEVERAL WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER NRN AR/SRN MO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MOISTURE CAN
BE NOTED ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE IN THE W
AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
I-65...SO HAVE LEFT 20 POPS IN FOR THIS AREA UNTIL ~03Z OR
SO....UNTIL PCPN DISSIPATION OCCURS ARND SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD...MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS SRN MO
ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA...SO
HAVE LEFT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CNTRL CONUS AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG OUT WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE FRONT THAT IS DRAGGED ALONG AS
THE LOW IS EJECTED EASTWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL
FIZZLE AND WASH OUT BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SO
HAVE KEPT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRY AS WELL. MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST THAT DEVELOPS
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER HERE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WENT WITH CLIMO FOR TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME...AND KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED DRY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...AMP
DISCUSSION...MP
000
FXUS64 KBMX 192331
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROF JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK IMPULSES WILL PASS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA.
NET OVER-ALL EFFECT WILL BE TO INCLUDE SMALL POPS EACH DAY ACROSS
THE EXTREME WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AND KEEP THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BUT THIS WILL NOT EVEN WET THE SURFACE.
MOST SECTIONS WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEASONAL READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS 80 TO 85.
READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUIET WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. PREDOMINATE LOW
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS
TO BELOW ONE INCH AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AREA-WIDE...
WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 80
TO 85 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. READINGS ACROSS
THE EAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A MID CLOUD DECK MOVING
IN BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. WINDS WILL RELAX BY 2Z AND WILL PICK BACK UP
BY 18Z TO AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS. WILL SEE SOME BKN CUMULUS AS WELL
AFTER 18Z. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF TAF
SITES. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ANY TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT.
16
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 192026
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
326 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...DEEPENING 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE CONVECTIVE FORCING WITH
A BAROTROPIC WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES. THE FEATURE COULD BE SEEN TODAY
ON VISIBLE...WATER VAPOR...AND INFRARED IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR. THE
INFRARED IS INDICATING COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH INCREASING CONVECTION
WHICH WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE REBOUNDING BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS MORNING RADAR IMAGES SHOWED
SPIRAL-LIKE BANDING BUT BELIEVE THE BEAM OVERSHOT THE WEST SECTION OF
WHAT IS CHEVRON-LIKE BANDING...TEXTBOOK TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF
DISTURBANCE. HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN A DEEP WATER VAPOR POOL
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
WILL BE FOUND IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS WEATHER.
AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH WE MENTIONED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
REMAIN THERE THIS WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN. BUT ANOTHER WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY FORMING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A REX BLOCK...BUT
MOVES RATHER UNLIKE ONE. WITH THAT INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO SHOOT THROUGH THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND INTO THE
ISENTROPIC CONVEYOR BELT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GULF STATES. WHEN THE
RESULT OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES NORTHWARD
REACHES THE COAST BY SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE...AND
THIS COULD HAPPEN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. WE DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL MOVE
MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN WITHIN 10 OR 20 MILES OF THE BEACH.
OTHERWISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND WILL BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THICK MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS AND
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER.
/77 DALY
.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL DECREASE TO MAINLY
ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SEVERAL COUNTIES INLAND AS WELL. A
REBOUNDING UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTION FAVORED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MOB AND BFM THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP
A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FOR
LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE
AREA WITH SMALL POPS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF CONVECTION IN
TAF`S FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA BUT RISK
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ON TAFS.
/29 EVERSOLE
&&
.MARINE...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ON AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE SURFACE WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS MUCH WEAKER IN THE LATEST GFS RUN. HAVE OPTED
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND CURRENT PACKAGE AND GO WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE STUBBORN WEDGE WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
/29 EVERSOLE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER THE AREA.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING IN DRY AIR
IN THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN FREE PERIOD.
HOWEVER DISPERSION WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE IN THE 20S TO 40S FOR
THE WEEKEND...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE ABOVE THE 50S THROUGH
THE WEEK.
/77 DALY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 65 80 64 82 / 60 50 40 40
PENSACOLA 67 82 66 84 / 60 40 30 30
DESTIN 73 79 72 80 / 20 30 20 30
EVERGREEN 59 80 59 82 / 30 30 20 30
WAYNESBORO 60 80 59 80 / 60 40 30 40
CAMDEN 59 81 59 81 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191942
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
240 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROF JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK IMPULSES WILL PASS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA.
NET OVER-ALL EFFECT WILL BE TO INCLUDE SMALL POPS EACH DAY ACROSS
THE EXTREME WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AND KEEP THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BUT THIS WILL NOT EVEN WET THE SURFACE.
MOST SECTIONS WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEASONAL READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS 80 TO 85.
READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUIET WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. PREDOMINATE LOW
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS
TO BELOW ONE INCH AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AREA-WIDE...
WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 80
TO 85 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. READINGS ACROSS
THE EAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A CUMULUS CLOUD
DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT ANB BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 00Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A MID CLOUD DECK MOVING IN BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT SHOULD DROP OFF TO BELOW 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ANY TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 56 81 57 80 54 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 60 82 58 83 59 / 10 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 61 81 60 81 60 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 62 83 60 82 59 / 20 20 20 20 10
CALERA 61 81 61 81 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 61 80 61 82 62 / 10 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 62 85 62 83 63 / 10 20 20 20 10
TROY 61 83 62 83 62 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
50
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191919
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
219 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND PUSH EASTWARD AS A CTIR /COASTAL TROUGH
INLAND RIDGE/ PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OUT WEST. CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON ARE
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE 80 DEGREE MARK. SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA HAVE HUGGED THE MS/AL STATE LINE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE EVER SO SLOWLY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
PCPN CURRENTLY HUGGING THE MS/AL LINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF ENERGY
NW OF THE CWA. THIS WAVE IS ONE OF SEVERAL WHICH WILL ROTATE AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN AR/SRN MO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MOISTURE CAN BE NOTED ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E
RIDGE IN THE W AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF I-65...SO HAVE LEFT 20 POPS IN FOR THIS AREA UNTIL
~03Z OR SO....UNTIL PCPN DISSIPATION OCCURS ARND SUNSET THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD...MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS SRN MO
ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA...SO
HAVE LEFT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRY.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CNTRL CONUS AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG OUT WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE FRONT THAT IS DRAGGED ALONG AS
THE LOW IS EJECTED EASTWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL
FIZZLE AND WASH OUT BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SO
HAVE KEPT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRY AS WELL. MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST THAT DEVELOPS
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER HERE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WENT WITH CLIMO FOR TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME...AND KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 60 81 59 82 59 / 10 10 10 10 10
SHOALS 60 81 59 82 58 / 20 10 10 10 10
CULLMAN 60 79 60 80 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 57 79 58 79 56 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 60 78 60 80 59 / 10 10 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 56 78 55 79 56 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
12
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191750
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1032 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE GOT HERE A TAD FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SAID
SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING ISENTROPIC CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MS AND SW AL. INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE INSULATED US TO THE
POINT THAT TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY RISING ACROSS THE WEST. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY/COOL AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE EAST.
FOR THE MOMENT...WE`RE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...THE DRY/COOL
AIR WILL EVENTUALLY DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE WEEKEND PLAYS
OUT... SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW BOLTS
OF LIGHTING TO BE HELD WEST OF I-65 INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S.
THE WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...ALIGNING
WITH LOWER BOUNDARY RIDGING. THIS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...SHUTTING DOWN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
KEEPING US UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
JONES/90
AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A CUMULUS CLOUD
DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT ANB BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 00Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A MID CLOUD DECK MOVING IN BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT SHOULD DROP OFF TO BELOW 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ANY TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
19
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
07/07/07
000
FXUS64 KMOB 191750
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION [18Z ISSUANCE]...CONVECTION FAVORED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT MOB AND BFM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
AFFECT PNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE AREA WITH SMALL POPS
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF CONVECTION IN TAF`S FOR REMAINDER OF
PERIOD. /29
** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION **
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER COLORADO
MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO OUR
WEST...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. AN EASTERLY WAVE SEEN ON
INFRARED IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EASTERLY
WAVE...PRECIPITATION COVERAGES WILL DECREASE SOME LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA CLOSER THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFTING. CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE FEWER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. /13
.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...AXIS OF UPPER THROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED OVER-RUNNING...NUMEROUS UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT...WILL KEEP
SCATTERED TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD AND MAY REACH THE COAST BY SUNDAY...BUT NOT
MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER AND A
RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL DECREASE TO MAINLY ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SEVERAL COUNTIES INLAND AS WELL. A REBOUNDING UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /22
&&
.MARINE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...ON AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH
MONDAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE SURFACE WAVE FOLLOWING
ALONG THE OLD FRONT AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTS IN EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY SATURDAY...WHICH THEN DECREASES ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
WAVE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH
CAUSES THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. /13
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ON TAP THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. A
REBOUNDING UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 83 66 81 65 / 60 50 60 40
PENSACOLA 85 67 82 65 / 40 30 50 40
DESTIN 84 68 83 66 / 20 20 40 30
EVERGREEN 82 62 79 59 / 40 20 40 30
WAYNESBORO 82 61 78 59 / 50 30 60 40
CAMDEN 83 60 79 59 / 30 20 30 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191750
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1032 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE GOT HERE A TAD FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SAID
SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING ISENTROPIC CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MS AND SW AL. INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE INSULATED US TO THE
POINT THAT TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY RISING ACROSS THE WEST. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY/COOL AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE EAST.
FOR THE MOMENT...WE`RE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...THE DRY/COOL
AIR WILL EVENTUALLY DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE WEEKEND PLAYS
OUT... SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW BOLTS
OF LIGHTING TO BE HELD WEST OF I-65 INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S.
THE WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...ALIGNING
WITH LOWER BOUNDARY RIDGING. THIS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...SHUTTING DOWN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
KEEPING US UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
JONES/90
AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A CUMULUS CLOUD
DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT ANB BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 00Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A MID CLOUD DECK MOVING IN BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT SHOULD DROP OFF TO BELOW 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ANY TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
19
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
07/07/07
000
FXUS64 KMOB 191750
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION [18Z ISSUANCE]...CONVECTION FAVORED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT MOB AND BFM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
AFFECT PNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE AREA WITH SMALL POPS
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF CONVECTION IN TAF`S FOR REMAINDER OF
PERIOD. /29
** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION **
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER COLORADO
MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO OUR
WEST...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. AN EASTERLY WAVE SEEN ON
INFRARED IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EASTERLY
WAVE...PRECIPITATION COVERAGES WILL DECREASE SOME LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA CLOSER THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFTING. CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE FEWER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. /13
.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...AXIS OF UPPER THROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED OVER-RUNNING...NUMEROUS UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT...WILL KEEP
SCATTERED TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD AND MAY REACH THE COAST BY SUNDAY...BUT NOT
MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER AND A
RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL DECREASE TO MAINLY ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SEVERAL COUNTIES INLAND AS WELL. A REBOUNDING UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /22
&&
.MARINE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...ON AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH
MONDAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE SURFACE WAVE FOLLOWING
ALONG THE OLD FRONT AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTS IN EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY SATURDAY...WHICH THEN DECREASES ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
WAVE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH
CAUSES THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. /13
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ON TAP THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. A
REBOUNDING UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 83 66 81 65 / 60 50 60 40
PENSACOLA 85 67 82 65 / 40 30 50 40
DESTIN 84 68 83 66 / 20 20 40 30
EVERGREEN 82 62 79 59 / 40 20 40 30
WAYNESBORO 82 61 78 59 / 50 30 60 40
CAMDEN 83 60 79 59 / 30 20 30 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191741
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS
UPPER LOW OVER MO WILL PUMP MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE TN VALLEY
DURING THE FCST PERIOD. ATTM A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS ALONG THE
MS/AL BORDER...THIS COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO NW
ALABAMA THIS AFTN/EVENING. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH FOR
PCPN OVER THE MSL TAF SITE....WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PCPN.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
UPDATE...
CENTER OF UPPER LOW OVER SW MO WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE LOW...MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY. VORT MAX ALONG THE MS/AL
BORDER IS MOVING NORTH AND COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER NW AL
THIS AFTN/EVENING. NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED ONLY SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT WOULD
FORM. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FROM THE HUN AREA AND POINTS
EAST...DUE TO MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE/LOWER DEWPOINTS/TRACK OF
CURRENT PCPN. CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY WHICH WOULD
EFFECT TEMPS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE NWRN ZONES MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. DID TWEAK THE WIND SPEEDS IN GRIDS A
LITTLE BUT REST OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY SENT AND ZONES WILL SOON FOLLOW.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SS
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191532
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1032 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING DESPITE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA STATE LINE WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70. JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST...TUSCALOOSA HAS ALREADY
WARMED TO 77 DEGREES...WITH MIDDLE 70S COMMONPLACE ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN THIS TREND...ELECTED TO RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHT 3-5 DEGREES
AREA WIDE DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP TO TRANSPORT WARM AIR FROM THE EAST INTO
THE AREA RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AREA WIDE.
&&
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE GOT HERE A TAD FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SAID
SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING ISENTROPIC CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MS AND SW AL. INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE INSULATED US TO THE
POINT THAT TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY RISING ACROSS THE WEST. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY/COOL AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE EAST.
FOR THE MOMENT...WE`RE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...THE DRY/COOL
AIR WILL EVENTUALLY DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE WEEKEND PLAYS
OUT... SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW BOLTS
OF LIGHTING TO BE HELD WEST OF I-65 INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S.
THE WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...ALIGNING
WITH LOWER BOUNDARY RIDGING. THIS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...SHUTTING DOWN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
KEEPING US UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
JONES/90
AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS IN EXTREME WEST ALABAMA. HOWEVER
DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO AREA FROM NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS
MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF TAF SITES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
INTERMITTENT MID OR HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AT ANY ONE OF THE TAF SITES IS VERY LOW SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY
15Z...THEN DROP OFF TO BELOW 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
41
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
07/07/07
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191523
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1023 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...
CENTER OF UPPER LOW OVER SW MO WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE LOW...MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY. VORT MAX ALONG THE MS/AL
BORDER IS MOVING NORTH AND COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER NW AL
THIS AFTN/EVENING. NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED ONLY SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT WOULD
FORM. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FROM THE HUN AREA AND POINTS
EAST...DUE TO MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE/LOWER DEWPOINTS/TRACK OF
CURRENT PCPN. CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY WHICH WOULD
EFFECT TEMPS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE NWRN ZONES MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. DID TWEAK THE WIND SPEEDS IN GRIDS A
LITTLE BUT REST OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY SENT AND ZONES WILL SOON FOLLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/...
SYNOPSIS...LATEST WV SATL IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF UPR LVL
CIRCULATIONS DRIFTING EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF LEAD
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS ATTM. CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC /AROUND 5KTS/ KEEPING TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH IN SOME AREAS. 08Z TEMPS RANGED FROM 57F AT KMDQ
/MERIDIANVILLE/ TO 70F AT K3A1 /CULLMAN/.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE SOMEWHERE OVER
AR/MO TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA SEEN NICELY BY THETA-E RIDGE AT 320K. AFTER 18Z...
SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS MS/WRN TN AND AR. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
ENERGY/MOISTURE TO APPROACH NW AL THIS AFTN...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW /20/ POPS GENERALLY WEST OF I-65. WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF
SUFFICIENT LOW LVL FORCING WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF ANY TSTMS.
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
AIRMASS STABILIZES...OTHERWISE P/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND
SE MO. WEAKER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...SO
HAVE LEFT FCST DRY ATTM. CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS AROUND 80F BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS MON/TUE IN RESPONSE TO
UPR TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL
FINALLY KICK CUT-OFF UPR LOW EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MAINLY IN CONTROL...DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OFF THE CAROLINA/MID
ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ATTM.
NADLER.83
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SS
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191147 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE GOT HERE A TAD FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SAID
SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING ISENTROPIC CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MS AND SW AL. INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE INSULATED US TO THE
POINT THAT TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY RISING ACROSS THE WEST. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY/COOL AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE EAST.
FOR THE MOMENT...WE`RE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...THE DRY/COOL
AIR WILL EVENTUALLY DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE WEEKEND PLAYS
OUT... SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW BOLTS
OF LIGHTING TO BE HELD WEST OF I-65 INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S.
THE WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...ALIGNING
WITH LOWER BOUNDARY RIDGING. THIS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...SHUTTING DOWN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
KEEPING US UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
JONES/90
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE HAS SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS IN EXTREME WEST ALABAMA. HOWEVER
DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO AREA FROM NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS
MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF TAF SITES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
INTERMITTENT MID OR HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AT ANY ONE OF THE TAF SITES IS VERY LOW SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY
15Z...THEN DROP OFF TO BELOW 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
41
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 191121 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KHSV
AND KMSL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE REGION. ISOLD TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NW AL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO KEEP BR FROM FORMING
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/...
SYNOPSIS...LATEST WV SATL IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF UPR LVL
CIRCULATIONS DRIFTING EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF LEAD
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS ATTM. CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC /AROUND 5KTS/ KEEPING TEMPS FROM
FALLING MUCH IN SOME AREAS. 08Z TEMPS RANGED FROM 57F AT KMDQ
/MERIDIANVILLE/ TO 70F AT K3A1 /CULLMAN/.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE SOMEWHERE OVER
AR/MO TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA SEEN NICELY BY THETA-E RIDGE AT 320K. AFTER 18Z...
SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS MS/WRN TN AND AR. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
ENERGY/MOISTURE TO APPROACH NW AL THIS AFTN...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW /20/ POPS GENERALLY WEST OF I-65. WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF
SUFFICIENT LOW LVL FORCING WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF ANY TSTMS.
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
AIRMASS STABILIZES...OTHERWISE P/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND
SE MO. WEAKER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...SO
HAVE LEFT FCST DRY ATTM. CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS AROUND 80F BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS MON/TUE IN RESPONSE TO
UPR TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL
FINALLY KICK CUT-OFF UPR LOW EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MAINLY IN CONTROL...DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OFF THE CAROLINA/MID
ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ATTM.
NADLER.83
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 85 61 84 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 10
SHOALS 84 62 83 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 10
CULLMAN 83 62 82 59 80 / 0 0 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 84 59 83 57 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 82 62 82 61 80 / 0 0 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 83 60 82 57 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...SL
DISCUSSION...DJN/83
000
FXUS64 KMOB 191000
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE OVER COLORADO
MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO OUR
WEST...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. AN EASTERLY WAVE SEEN ON
INFRARED IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EASTERLY
WAVE...PRECIPITATION COVERAGES WILL DECREASE SOME LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA CLOSER THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFTING. CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE FEWER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. /13
.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...AXIS OF UPPER THROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED OVER-RUNNING...NUMEROUS UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT...WILL KEEP
SCATTERED TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD AND MAY REACH THE COAST BY SUNDAY...BUT NOT
MOVE MUCH FURTHER INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER AND A
RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL DECREASE TO MAINLY ISOLATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SEVERAL COUNTIES INLAND AS WELL. A REBOUNDING UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /22
&&
.MARINE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROF IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...ON AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH
MONDAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE SURFACE WAVE FOLLOWING
ALONG THE OLD FRONT AND WEAKENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTS IN EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS BY SATURDAY...WHICH THEN DECREASES ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
WAVE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH
CAUSES THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. /13
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ON TAP THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. A
REBOUNDING UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 83 66 81 65 / 60 50 60 40
PENSACOLA 85 67 82 65 / 40 30 50 40
DESTIN 84 68 83 66 / 20 20 40 30
EVERGREEN 82 62 79 59 / 40 20 40 30
WAYNESBORO 82 61 78 59 / 50 30 60 40
CAMDEN 83 60 79 59 / 30 20 30 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190945
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE GOT HERE A TAD FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SAID SHORTWAVE
IS PRODUCING ISENTROPIC CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MS AND SW AL. INCREASING CLOUDS HAVE INSULATED US TO THE POINT
THAT TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY RISING ACROSS THE WEST. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY/COOL AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE EAST.
FOR THE MOMENT...WE`RE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE. HOWEVER...THE
DRY/COOL AIR WILL EVENTUALLY DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA. AS THE
WEEKEND PLAYS OUT... SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...
WITH A FEW BOLTS OF LIGHTING TO BE HELD WEST OF I-65 INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S.
THE WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...ALIGNING
WITH LOWER BOUNDARY RIDGING. THIS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...SHUTTING DOWN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
KEEPING US UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
JONES/90
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A BIT OF A CURVE BALL TONIGHT...AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORMING/
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA AS WELL. NET RESULT MAY BE
FOR BETTER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR MOST AVIATION CONCERNS...AS
THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO INHIBIT ANY SERIOUS MVFR BR DEVELOPMENT.
BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL MAR THE EARLY MORNING SKIES WITH MULTIPLE VFR
LAYERS BETWEEN FL120 AND FL220. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER AROUND
SOMEWHAT INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
LIMITS TO AVIATION ARE NOTED.
JD/81
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 79 58 77 55 80 / 0 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 77 57 79 59 82 / 0 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 79 57 78 61 81 / 10 10 10 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 78 61 81 62 82 / 20 20 20 20 20
CALERA 80 58 79 60 80 / 10 10 10 20 20
AUBURN 78 57 77 60 79 / 0 10 10 10 20
MONTGOMERY 82 61 79 62 83 / 10 10 20 20 30
TROY 81 59 78 61 80 / 10 10 20 10 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
07/07/07
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190824
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV SATL IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF UPR LVL CIRCULATIONS
DRIFTING EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF LEAD WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS ATTM. CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SFC /AROUND 5KTS/ KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH IN SOME
AREAS. 08Z TEMPS RANGED FROM 57F AT KMDQ /MERIDIANVILLE/ TO 70F AT
K3A1 /CULLMAN/. &&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE SOMEWHERE OVER
AR/MO TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA SEEN NICELY BY THETA-E RIDGE AT 320K. AFTER 18Z...
SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS MS/WRN TN AND AR. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
ENERGY/MOISTURE TO APPROACH NW AL THIS AFTN...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW /20/ POPS GENERALLY WEST OF I-65. WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF
SUFFICIENT LOW LVL FORCING WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF ANY TSTMS.
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
AIRMASS STABILIZES...OTHERWISE P/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND
SE MO. WEAKER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...SO
HAVE LEFT FCST DRY ATTM. CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS AROUND 80F BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS MON/TUE IN RESPONSE TO
UPR TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL
FINALLY KICK CUT-OFF UPR LOW EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MAINLY IN CONTROL...DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OFF THE CAROLINA/MID
ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER ATTM.
NADLER.83
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 84 60 81 59 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
SHOALS 83 60 81 59 82 / 20 20 10 10 10
CULLMAN 82 60 79 60 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 82 57 79 58 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 82 60 78 60 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 82 56 78 55 79 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DJN.83
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190529 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES. MVFR VIS POSSIBLE WITH BR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BY ~10-11Z. HOWEVER...INCRSG MID
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY AND FOG FROM BECOMING TOO
DENSE. FOG WILL EVAPORATE BY 13-15Z WITH SUNRISE. EXPECTING FAIRLY
PERSISTENT MID-CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW AS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/...TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY SO FAR TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...
DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S AND PATCHY CLOUDINESS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER. SO...THINK LOWS IN THE UPR 50S/LOW
60S LOOK FINE. SHARP LOW-LVL INVERSION WILL AGAIN PUT THE HIGHEST
TEMPS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH MOST LOWS THERE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S. AREA OF MID/UPR LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLOUD CHARACTER SHOULD BE PARTLY OPAQUE...SO HAVE
GONE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY IN GRIDS/ZONES.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...SL/KDW
DISCUSSION...03
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190458
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRIER AIR HAS
AND CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE EAST...SO WOULD EXPECT THE STRATUS
TO STAY AWAY FOR THE MOST PART...AND DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE THE STRATUS DECK IMPACT AREAS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERALL
A FEW DEGREES AREAWIDE. WITH THAT SAID AND THE GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOOK FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED IN FORECAST...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
16
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A BIT OF A CURVE BALL TONIGHT...AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORMING/
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA AS WELL. NET RESULT MAY BE
FOR BETTER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR MOST AVIATION CONCERNS...AS
THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO INHIBIT ANY SERIOUS MVFR BR DEVELOPMENT.
BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL MAR THE EARLY MORNING SKIES WITH MULTIPLE VFR
LAYERS BETWEEN FL120 AND FL220. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER AROUND
SOMEWHAT INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
LIMITS TO AVIATION ARE NOTED.
JD/81
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
10/ARM
000
FXUS64 KMOB 190418 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1115 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 19/06Z...SCATTERED SSHOWERS ALONG COAST WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST. WILL BE
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR DUE TO CIGS/VSBY MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING. MVFR PSBL/BRIEF IFR DUE TO TSRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.
/11
.UPDATE...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND A LOW LEVEL TAP OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE WEST
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND UPDATED GRIDDED WEATHER/POP TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10
.................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.......................
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...CONVEYOR BELT IS
BEING SUGGESTED ONCE THE RETURN FLOW COMMENCES AND FORCES WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFTING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHEN THAT HAPPENS DRY
WEATHER WILL RETREAT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE BY FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. MOIST AIR IN LOW LEVELS WILL LIFT AS CYCLOGENESIS
STARTS IN AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF. EAST WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NOCTURNAL GRAVITY CURRENT OFTEN
FOUND IN NORTHEAST FLOW REGIMES IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE AL/NW
FL COASTAL COUNTIES. WEAKENS DURING THE DAY BUT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SINCE WE SEE THIS AS AN ISENTROPIC LIFTING
EVENT WILL WORD THE FORECAST AS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES FIRST DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY
MORNING MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD
EAST TO COVER ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AVERAGES 1.5 INCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY.
/77 DALY
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...NO CHANGES. PW TO AVERAGE 1.5
INCHES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. GFS BRINGS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY PERIOD
LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BACK DOOR FRONTS
WITH THEIR SHALLOW WEAK LIFT HAVE A HABIT OF LEAVING CONSIDERABLE
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS SO SUSPECT THE MOS WOULD BE PICKING UP ON THAT
PREDICTOR.
/77 DALY
&&
.MARINE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING A WEDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS BETTER RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROF OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF...ON AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
FOLLOWING ALONG THE OLD FRONT AND MEANWHILE WEAKENING. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS BY SATURDAY...WHICH THEN DECREASES ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH IN TURN INCREASES THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT.
/29 EVERSOLE
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...WILL HAVE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS OVER PNS
AND BFM WHICH IMPROVE TO SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA....WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR MOB. THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN SUPPORTS RETURN AND EXPANSION OF
THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT. HAVE
GONE WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST NIGHT...WITH DECK MOVING IN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MOB AND BFM DURING
THE MID MORNING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT PNS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY MORNING.
/29 EVERSOLE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FRIDAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RH WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/77 DALY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 83 65 79 / 10 50 50 60
PENSACOLA 68 84 67 80 / 20 40 40 50
DESTIN 74 81 72 78 / 20 30 30 50
EVERGREEN 63 84 60 79 / 10 30 30 40
WAYNESBORO 61 82 61 79 / 10 50 40 40
CAMDEN 62 84 60 79 / 10 30 30 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 190318 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1017 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND A LOW LEVEL TAP OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE WEST
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE LOOK TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND UPDATED GRIDDED WEATHER/POP TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10
.................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.......................
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...CONVEYOR BELT IS
BEING SUGGESTED ONCE THE RETURN FLOW COMMENCES AND FORCES WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFTING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHEN THAT HAPPENS DRY
WEATHER WILL RETREAT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE BY FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. MOIST AIR IN LOW LEVELS WILL LIFT AS CYCLOGENESIS
STARTS IN AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF. EAST WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NOCTURNAL GRAVITY CURRENT OFTEN
FOUND IN NORTHEAST FLOW REGIMES IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE AL/NW
FL COASTAL COUNTIES. WEAKENS DURING THE DAY BUT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SINCE WE SEE THIS AS AN ISENTROPIC LIFTING
EVENT WILL WORD THE FORECAST AS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES FIRST DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY
MORNING MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD
EAST TO COVER ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AVERAGES 1.5 INCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY.
/77 DALY
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...NO CHANGES. PW TO AVERAGE 1.5
INCHES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. GFS BRINGS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY PERIOD
LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BACK DOOR FRONTS
WITH THEIR SHALLOW WEAK LIFT HAVE A HABIT OF LEAVING CONSIDERABLE
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS SO SUSPECT THE MOS WOULD BE PICKING UP ON THAT
PREDICTOR.
/77 DALY
&&
.MARINE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING A WEDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS BETTER RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROF OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF...ON AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
FOLLOWING ALONG THE OLD FRONT AND MEANWHILE WEAKENING. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS BY SATURDAY...WHICH THEN DECREASES ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH IN TURN INCREASES THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT.
/29 EVERSOLE
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...WILL HAVE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS OVER PNS
AND BFM WHICH IMPROVE TO SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA....WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR MOB. THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN SUPPORTS RETURN AND EXPANSION OF
THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT. HAVE
GONE WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST NIGHT...WITH DECK MOVING IN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MOB AND BFM DURING
THE MID MORNING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT PNS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY MORNING.
/29 EVERSOLE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FRIDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM RH WILL NOT
DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/77 DALY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 83 65 79 / 10 50 50 60
PENSACOLA 68 84 67 80 / 20 40 40 50
DESTIN 74 81 72 78 / 20 30 30 50
EVERGREEN 63 84 60 79 / 10 30 30 40
WAYNESBORO 61 82 61 79 / 10 50 40 40
CAMDEN 62 84 60 79 / 10 30 30 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 190234 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
934 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
INCREASED CLOUDS SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY SO FAR TONIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
AND PATCHY CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER. SO...THINK
LOWS IN THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S LOOK FINE. SHARP LOW-LVL INVERSION
WILL AGAIN PUT THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS...WITH MOST LOWS THERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S. AREA OF MID/UPR
LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLOUD CHARACTER
SHOULD BE PARTLY OPAQUE...SO HAVE GONE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY IN
GRIDS/ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
NO CHANGES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY BETWEEN 1000 AND 1400 UTC. A LOW PROBABILITY OF BKN CU
(4-5 KFT AGL) POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFT 1600 UTC.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...15
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190210
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
910 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRIER AIR HAS
AND CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE EAST...SO WOULD EXPECT THE STRATUS
TO STAY AWAY FOR THE MOST PART...AND DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE THE STRATUS DECK IMPACT AREAS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERALL
A FEW DEGREES AREAWIDE. WITH THAT SAID AND THE GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOOK FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED IN FORECAST...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
16
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A BIT OF A DECREASE IN MOISTURE
AT AND BELOW 5KFT TONIGHT...AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR HAS AND
CONTINUES TO WORK IN DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALSO OF
NOTE...PREVIOUSLY INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD...AND NOW WEAK RIDGING IS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. COMPARING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO SURFACE MOISTURE TONIGHT...SHOWS A MARKED
DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE
LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/STRATUS...IT APPEARS SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASE...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR BR ACROSS THE AREA.
RUC/NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF MODELS ARE ALL IN THE SAME CAMP HERE...SO
FOR THIS ISSUANCE...WITH JUST SLIGHT APPREHENSION...PULLED MENTION
OF STRATUS FROM ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CONCERN FOR ANYTHING
BELOW MVFR BR WOULD BE AT TCL...AND INCLUDED BCFG GROUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR RIVER EFFECTS THERE.
ONLY OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS WATCHING THE OVERRUNNING OFF TO THE
WEST...WHICH MAY SPILL SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT LEAST INTO TCL BY
TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO ERODE A BIT ON THE EASTERN
EDGE...BUT EITHER WAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW ACROSS THE
BOARD.
APOLOGIES FOR DELAYED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
JD/81
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
10/ARM
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190056
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
755 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...JUST OF THE COAST OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS IN
TURN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE ENHANCE LIFT...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
SATURDAY`S RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF A QUESTION MARK.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE BATTLING AGAINST A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH SHOULD AT LEAST STABILIZE THE AREA ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS COULD NOT BE DISCOUNTED. LEANING WITH THE DRIER NAM AS THE
GFS TENDS TO OVER DO PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT POPS ON SUNDAY. AGAIN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
ARE COMING IN MUCH WETTER THAN THE NAM. THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SINCE IT SHOWS 3 HOUR QPF VALUES OF AN
INCH OF MORE. I THINK RAINFALL AMOUNT...IF ANY...WILL BE LIGHT.
THOSE RAIN CHANCES WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MONDAY AS SOME OF THE
LEFTOVER MOISTURE REMAIN IN THE AREA. BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REGAIN CONTROL AND IT WILL KEEP CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK KEEPING THE CWA RAIN FREE.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A BIT OF A DECREASE IN MOISTURE
AT AND BELOW 5KFT TONIGHT...AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR HAS AND
CONTINUES TO WORK IN DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALSO OF
NOTE...PREVIOUSLY INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD...AND NOW WEAK RIDGING IS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. COMPARING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO SURFACE MOISTURE TONIGHT...SHOWS A MARKED
DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE
LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/STRATUS...IT APPEARS SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASE...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR BR ACROSS THE AREA.
RUC/NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF MODELS ARE ALL IN THE SAME CAMP HERE...SO
FOR THIS ISSUANCE...WITH JUST SLIGHT APPREHENSION...PULLED MENTION
OF STRATUS FROM ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CONCERN FOR ANYTHING
BELOW MVFR BR WOULD BE AT TCL...AND INCLUDED BCFG GROUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR RIVER EFFECTS THERE.
ONLY OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS WATCHING THE OVERRUNNING OFF TO THE
WEST...WHICH MAY SPILL SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT LEAST INTO TCL BY
TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO ERODE A BIT ON THE EASTERN
EDGE...BUT EITHER WAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW ACROSS THE
BOARD.
APOLOGIES FOR DELAYED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
JD/81
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
10/ARM
000
FXUS64 KHUN 182341 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY BETWEEN
1000 AND 14OO UTC. A LOW PROBABLY OF BKN CU (4-5 KFT AGL) POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AFT 1600 UTC.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS WE APPROACH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ON
MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S...RATHER SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. MORE OF
THE SAME IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DRIER DEWPOINTS SHOULD FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN...AND
EASTERN GA. WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTING AROUND THE STRONG NEW
ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
AND SO LOWS SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.
NEXT OUR EYES TURN TO THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE
AREA...AND A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE 60S
DEWPOINTS AND THE 40S DEWPOINTS...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP. THE QUESTION IS WHERE THAT
DISCONTINUITY WILL BE. GUT FEELING IS IT WILL BE WEST OF HERE BUT I
AM NOT PREPARED TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE IDEA THAT IT COULD BE
FARTHER EAST. SO WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED MENTION...MAINLY WEST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 43 IN NW ALABAMA...FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH RAIN
CHANCES NEAR ZERO ALONG THE GEORGIA BORDER. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM
GUIDANCE ON TEMPS BUT I DID TAKE A WIDER DIURNAL RANGE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A RENEWED PUSH OF DRIER AIR WOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THAT TO HAPPEN...IF IT OCCURS.
EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND KEEPS PUSHING DRY AIR DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL GO
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...YIELDING HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST OF THE TIME. AS IT
STANDS NOW...DO NOT SEE ANY APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
FAST FACT...
LAST YEAR AT HUNTSVILLE...0.01 INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE ENTIRE
SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER. WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST...COULD THE
SAME THING HAPPEN THIS YEAR? ONLY SIX TIMES ON RECORD HAS THERE BEEN
ABSOLUTELY NO RAIN IN THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER...LAST IN 1945.
BUT 33 TIMES (ALMOST A THIRD OF OUR PERIOD OF RECORD) THERE WAS LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THAT TIME PERIOD. SO THIS DRY WEATHER
IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...15
DISCUSSION...23
000
FXUS64 KMOB 182045
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...DRY IN THE SHORT
TERM. SINCE THE SITUATION WITH THE COLD SURGE STRATUS HAS SEEMINGLY
NOT CHANGED...EXPECTING A REPEAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH. SOME MODELS OUTPUTS SHOW A SMALL PROBABILITY THIS WILL
HAPPEN. CONVEYOR BELT IS ALSO BEING SUGGESTED ONCE THE RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES AND FORCES WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFTING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHEN THAT HAPPENS DRY WEATHER WILL RETREAT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE BY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MOIST AIR IN LOW LEVELS WILL
LIFT AS CYCLOGENESIS STARTS IN AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
GULF. EAST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
GULF FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NOCTURNAL GRAVITY CURRENT OFTEN
FOUND IN NORTHEAST FLOW REGIMES IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE AL/NW
FL COASTAL COUNTIES. WEAKENS DURING THE DAY BUT WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SINCE WE SEE THIS AS AN ISENTROPIC LIFTING
EVENT WILL WORD THE FORECAST AS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES FIRST DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY
MORNING MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS AREA WILL SPREAD
EAST TO COVER ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL LIGHT TO MODERATE
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AVERAGES 1.5 INCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
/77 DALY
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...NO CHANGES. PW TO AVERAGE 1.5
INCHES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. GFS BRINGS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY PERIOD
LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BACK DOOR FRONTS
WITH THEIR SHALLOW WEAK LIFT HAVE A HABIT OF LEAVING CONSIDERABLE
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS SO SUSPECT THE MOS WOULD BE PICKING UP ON THAT
PREDICTOR.
/77 DALY
&&
.MARINE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING A WEDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS BETTER RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROF OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF...ON AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
FOLLOWING ALONG THE OLD FRONT AND MEANWHILE WEAKENING. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS BY SATURDAY...WHICH THEN DECREASES ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN STATES ON MONDAY...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH IN TURN INCREASES THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT.
/29 EVERSOLE
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...WILL HAVE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS OVER PNS
AND BFM WHICH IMPROVE TO SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA....WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR MOB. THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN SUPPORTS RETURN AND EXPANSION OF
THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT. HAVE
GONE WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST NIGHT...WITH DECK MOVING IN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MOB AND BFM DURING
THE MID MORNING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT PNS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY MORNING.
/29 EVERSOLE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FRIDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM RH WILL NOT
DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/77 DALY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 83 65 79 / 10 50 50 60
PENSACOLA 68 84 67 80 / 10 40 40 50
DESTIN 74 81 72 78 / 10 30 30 50
EVERGREEN 63 84 60 79 / 10 30 30 40
WAYNESBORO 61 82 61 79 / 10 50 40 40
CAMDEN 62 84 60 79 / 10 30 30 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 182002
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
302 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...JUST OF THE COAST OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS IN
TURN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE ENHANCE LIFT...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
SATURDAY`S RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF A QUESTION MARK.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE BATTLING AGAINST A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH SHOULD AT LEAST STABILIZE THE AREA ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS COULD NOT BE DISCOUNTED. LEANING WITH THE DRIER NAM AS THE
GFS TENDS TO OVER DO PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT POPS ON SUNDAY. AGAIN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
ARE COMING IN MUCH WETTER THAN THE NAM. THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SINCE IT SHOWS 3 HOUR QPF VALUES OF AN
INCH OF MORE. I THINK RAINFALL AMOUNT...IF ANY...WILL BE LIGHT.
THOSE RAIN CHANCES WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MONDAY AS SOME OF THE
LEFTOVER MOISTURE REMAIN IN THE AREA. BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REGAIN CONTROL AND IT WILL KEEP CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK KEEPING THE CWA RAIN FREE.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VERY MOIST LAYER EXISTS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL IN EASTERLY FLOW. MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KMGM AND KTOI THRU 21Z AND THEN LIKELY RISE
ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THRU
THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD. SCATTERED CUMULUS
EXPECTED AT MOST SITES BY 23Z. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD INTO EAST ALABAMA AFTER 09Z. LOW CLOUDS
WITH CIGS 1000-1500 FEET AGL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON WESTERN SIDE OF
BOUNDARY...BUT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW FAR DRY WEDGE WILL BE BEFORE
STRATUS BEGINS TO FORM. AT THIS TIME...INCLUDED LOW CLOUDS AT SITES
TCL...MGM...AND TOI. CIGS SHOULD RISE ABOVE MVFR AFTER 15Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 58 82 56 79 55 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 61 83 59 79 59 / 10 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 63 83 63 80 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 63 84 63 82 62 / 10 20 20 20 10
CALERA 63 83 62 78 60 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 60 80 60 77 60 / 10 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 64 83 62 81 62 / 10 20 10 20 20
TROY 63 82 60 79 61 / 10 20 10 30 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
10/ARM
000
FXUS64 KHUN 181928
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS WE APPROACH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ON
MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S...RATHER SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. MORE OF THE
SAME IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DRIER DEWPOINTS SHOULD FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN...AND
EASTERN GA. WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTING AROUND THE STRONG NEW
ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
AND SO LOWS SHOULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS.
NEXT OUR EYES TURN TO THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE
AREA...AND A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE 60S
DEWPOINTS AND THE 40S DEWPOINTS...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP. THE QUESTION IS WHERE THAT
DISCONTINUITY WILL BE. GUT FEELING IS IT WILL BE WEST OF HERE BUT I
AM NOT PREPARED TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE IDEA THAT IT COULD BE
FARTHER EAST. SO WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED MENTION...MAINLY WEST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 43 IN NW ALABAMA...FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH RAIN
CHANCES NEAR ZERO ALONG THE GEORGIA BORDER. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM
GUIDANCE ON TEMPS BUT I DID TAKE A WIDER DIURNAL RANGE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A RENEWED PUSH OF DRIER AIR WOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THAT TO HAPPEN...IF IT OCCURS.
EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND KEEPS PUSHING DRY AIR DOWN
THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL GO
CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...YIELDING HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST OF THE TIME. AS IT
STANDS NOW...DO NOT SEE ANY APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
FAST FACT...
LAST YEAR AT HUNTSVILLE...0.01 INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE ENTIRE
SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER. WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST...COULD THE
SAME THING HAPPEN THIS YEAR? ONLY SIX TIMES ON RECORD HAS THERE BEEN
ABSOLUTELY NO RAIN IN THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER...LAST IN 1945.
BUT 33 TIMES (ALMOST A THIRD OF OUR PERIOD OF RECORD) THERE WAS LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THAT TIME PERIOD. SO THIS DRY WEATHER
IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 59 83 60 83 57 / 5 10 10 5 5
SHOALS 58 84 61 82 56 / 10 20 10 10 5
CULLMAN 58 82 60 82 57 / 5 10 10 10 5
FAYETTEVILLE 59 82 59 81 56 / 0 5 5 0 0
ALBERTVILLE 62 83 60 82 58 / 0 10 5 5 0
FORT PAYNE 59 81 57 81 56 / 0 5 0 0 0
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JE/23
000
FXUS64 KMOB 181747
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1247 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...WILL HAVE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS OVER PNS
AND BFM WHICH IMPROVE TO SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA....WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR MOB. THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN SUPPORTS RETURN AND EXPANSION OF
THE LOW STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT. HAVE
GONE WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST NIGHT...WITH DECK MOVING IN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MOB AND BFM DURING
THE MID MORNING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT PNS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY MORNING. /29
&&
** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION **
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TO
TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH CLOUD COVER/TEMPS THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM. COLD SURGE STRATUS WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST. THE GENERALLY EASTERLY
MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURGE WILL COME...AND THE
AREAS AFFECTED BY THE REDUCED INSOLATION TODAY. MODELS HINT AT THIS
SURGE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT ONLY A SMALL HINT. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETTING UP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT...WITH
REDUCED COOLING EXPECTED. FOR TODAY...WENT WITH THE BETTER
PERFORMING GFS/MAV SOLUTION...WITH LITTLE SEEN TO DEVIATE. /16
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS GOING TO BE REPLACED BY A WETTER PATTERN
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...OVER-RUNNING OF MOIST AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS (MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) WILL OCCUR AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO STRENGTHENS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...AIDED
BY NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
CONTENT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
1.5+ INCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
GFS MODEL BRINGS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO AN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. /22
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO
OFF THE COAST OF THE CA MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS POSITION IS
A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN A MORE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS ALSO ADVERTISING A SURFACE SYSTEM TRYING
TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND (GFS IS
ADVERTISING A LOW TRYING TO FORM OFF THE TX COAST AND ANOTHER OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE). WHEN COMBINED WITH DRAINAGE COMPONENT OFF THE
LAND...AN ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY OVER THE AL/NW FL COAST
(A BIT STRONGER DUE TO THE LOW OFF THE TX COAST IF THE GFS SOLUTION
VERIFIES). THIS EASING DURING THE DAY...STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK. /16
&&
.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...STRATUS DECK WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY. AM EXPECTING MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETS UP
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MINIMUM RH
VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 84 67 83 68 / 00 05 50 40
PENSACOLA 86 72 84 68 / 00 05 40 20
DESTIN 84 71 85 68 / 05 05 30 20
EVERGREEN 82 66 84 62 / 00 05 30 20
WAYNESBORO 81 65 83 63 / 00 05 50 40
CAMDEN 82 66 84 62 / 00 05 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 181745 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1245 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS AREA THANKS TO MOIST LAYER BELOW
850MB AND WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED TROF MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORECAST. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VERY MOIST LAYER EXISTS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL IN EASTERLY FLOW. MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KMGM AND KTOI THRU 21Z AND THEN LIKELY RISE
ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THRU
THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD. SCATTERED CUMULUS
EXPECTED AT MOST SITES BY 23Z. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD INTO EAST ALABAMA AFTER 09Z. LOW CLOUDS
WITH CIGS 1000-1500 FEET AGL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON WESTERN SIDE OF
BOUNDARY...BUT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW FAR DRY WEDGE WILL BE BEFORE
STRATUS BEGINS TO FORM. AT THIS TIME...INCLUDED LOW CLOUDS AT SITES
TCL...MGM...AND TOI. CIGS SHOULD RISE ABOVE MVFR AFTER 15Z.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 181738
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTN FOR SCT/BKN CU. AFTER SUNSET...WITH LOST OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER RIDGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z FOR BOTH TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ARE BURNING OFF FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I65. TEMPS ARND
THE CWA WERE IN THE LOW 70S WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TODAY PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTN HIGHS
BETWEEN 80 AND 85.
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR SKY
WORDING..OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST ON TRACK ATTM.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SS
000
FXUS64 KBMX 181552 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1050 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...TODAYS WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS AREA THANKS TO MOIST LAYER BELOW
850MB AND WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED TROF MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORECAST. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
STRATUS HAS MADE IT INTO MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS 1000-2000 FEET...BUT LOCALLY BELOW 1000 ESPECIALLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MGM. AROUND ANB CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
5000 FEET AND THIS EXTENDS INTO WESTERN GEORGIA SO DO NOT LOOK FOR
ANB TO LOWER MUCH IF ANY THIS MORNING. IN ANY EVENT STRATUS SHOULD
BE LIFTING/DISPERSING ACROSS THE AREA 15-18Z TIME FRAME GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN NE TO E WIND FLOW AND SPREAD
DRIER AIR INTO AREA...SO DO NOT LOOK FOR REPEAT OF LOW CEILINGS
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL HAVE MVFR VSBYS
(3-5 MI) AFTER 06Z.
41
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 181459
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
959 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ARE BURNING OFF FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I65. TEMPS ARND
THE CWA WERE IN THE LOW 70S WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TODAY PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTN HIGHS
BETWEEN 80 AND 85.
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR SKY
WORDING..OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST ON TRACK ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VCNTY OF KHSV WHERE
MVFR BR VIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 13Z. THIS IS DUE TO A
DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SOME
SCT SC/AC IS STILL PRESENT IN THE MID SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AL.
EXPECTING THIS LAYER TO DISSIPATE AROUND 16-18Z.
DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
SYNOPSIS...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGING
FROM 55F AT KMSL TO 66F AT K4A9 /AS OF 08Z/. STILL DEALING WITH A
NARROW BAND OF STRATUS THAT STRETCHES ACROSS CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND DE
KALB COUNTIES...BUT CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY BTWN 3-5KFT. TEMPS ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5-10F DEG WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...MAINLY
EAST OF I-65 THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE AND WARMER
AFTN TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR NORTH. LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD BURN
OFF BY MID MORNING AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PUSH ANY CU FIELD MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER BY THIS AFTN. WITH
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS AND A WEAK UPR RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...TEMPS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING BACK INTO THE LWR/MID 80S WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
UPR LVL S/W CURRENTLY EJECTING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WILL
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THIS FEATURE ENCOUNTERS BETTER
GULF MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LVL CONVG...EXPECT AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP FRIDAY ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY. DRIER E/SE FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM AFFECTING THE
AREA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW -SHRA APPROACH THE
AL/MS BORDER FRI AFTN. FRI NGT INTO SAT...SFC RIDGE WILL "WEDGE"
ITSELF DOWN ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MOVING MUCH AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS...TEMPS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/UPR TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND BEST FORCING REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY MID
WEEK...AN ELONGATED UPR RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THEN UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH/WEST. ATTM HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ANY SIGNF
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NADLER.83
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SS
000
FXUS64 KHUN 181130 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VCNTY OF KHSV WHERE
MVFR BR VIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 13Z. THIS IS DUE TO A
DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SOME
SCT SC/AC IS STILL PRESENT IN THE MID SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AL.
EXPECTING THIS LAYER TO DISSIPATE AROUND 16-18Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
SYNOPSIS...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGING
FROM 55F AT KMSL TO 66F AT K4A9 /AS OF 08Z/. STILL DEALING WITH A
NARROW BAND OF STRATUS THAT STRETCHES ACROSS CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND DE
KALB COUNTIES...BUT CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY BTWN 3-5KFT. TEMPS ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5-10F DEG WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...MAINLY
EAST OF I-65 THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE AND WARMER
AFTN TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR NORTH. LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD BURN
OFF BY MID MORNING AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PUSH ANY CU FIELD MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER BY THIS AFTN. WITH
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS AND A WEAK UPR RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...TEMPS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING BACK INTO THE LWR/MID 80S WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
UPR LVL S/W CURRENTLY EJECTING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WILL
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THIS FEATURE ENCOUNTERS BETTER
GULF MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LVL CONVG...EXPECT AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP FRIDAY ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY. DRIER E/SE FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM AFFECTING THE
AREA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW -SHRA APPROACH THE
AL/MS BORDER FRI AFTN. FRI NGT INTO SAT...SFC RIDGE WILL "WEDGE"
ITSELF DOWN ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MOVING MUCH AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS...TEMPS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/UPR TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND BEST FORCING REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY MID
WEEK...AN ELONGATED UPR RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THEN UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH/WEST. ATTM HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ANY SIGNF
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NADLER.83
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 85 61 84 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 10
SHOALS 84 62 83 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 10
CULLMAN 83 62 82 59 80 / 0 0 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 84 59 83 57 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 82 62 82 61 80 / 0 0 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 83 60 82 57 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...SL/77
DISCUSSION...DJN/83
000
FXUS64 KBMX 181108 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
608 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AGAIN WITH WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...SOME THICK ENOUGH EVEN TO
PRODUCE SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE. THIS MORNING`S CLOUDS HOWEVER
SHOULDN`T HANG ON AS LONG AS YESTERDAY. ONCE CLOUDS LIFT AND
SCATTER...SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.
IN THE BIG PICTURE...A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY BRINGS BACK THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY TO BE ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE FLUCTUATING LOWER BOUNDARY RIDGE TO OUR NORTH.
BY MONDAY THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD
IN. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN ANY CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MID-WEEK.
TEMP WISE EXPECTING NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JONES/90
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
STRATUS HAS MADE IT INTO MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS 1000-2000 FEET...BUT LOCALLY BELOW 1000 ESPECIALLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MGM. AROUND ANB CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE
5000 FEET AND THIS EXTENDS INTO WESTERN GEORGIA SO DO NOT LOOK FOR
ANB TO LOWER MUCH IF ANY THIS MORNING. IN ANY EVENT STRATUS SHOULD
BE LIFTING/DISPERSING ACROSS THE AREA 15-18Z TIME FRAME GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN NE TO E WIND FLOW AND SPREAD
DRIER AIR INTO AREA...SO DO NOT LOOK FOR REPEAT OF LOW CEILINGS
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL HAVE MVFR VSBYS
(3-5 MI) AFTER 06Z.
41
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 180950
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TO
TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH CLOUD COVER/TEMPS THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM. COLD SURGE STRATUS WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST. THE GENERALLY EASTERLY
MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURGE WILL COME...AND THE
AREAS AFFECTED BY THE REDUCED INSOLATION TODAY. MODELS HINT AT THIS
SURGE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT ONLY A SMALL HINT. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
ADVERTISING SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETTING UP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT...WITH
REDUCED COOLING EXPECTED. FOR TODAY...WENT WITH THE BETTER
PERFORMING GFS/MAV SOLUTION...WITH LITTLE SEEN TO DEVIATE. /16
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS GOING TO BE REPLACED BY A WETTER PATTERN
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...OVER-RUNNING OF MOIST AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS (MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) WILL OCCUR AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO STRENGTHENS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND EASTWARD TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...AIDED
BY NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
CONTENT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
1.5+ INCHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
GFS MODEL BRINGS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO AN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. /22
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO
OFF THE COAST OF THE CA MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS POSITION IS
A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN A MORE
EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS ALSO ADVERTISING A SURFACE SYSTEM TRYING
TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND (GFS IS
ADVERTISING A LOW TRYING TO FORM OFF THE TX COAST AND ANOTHER OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE). WHEN COMBINED WITH DRAINAGE COMPONENT OFF THE
LAND...AN ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY OVER THE AL/NW FL COAST
(A BIT STRONGER DUE TO THE LOW OFF THE TX COAST IF THE GFS SOLUTION
VERIFIES). THIS EASING DURING THE DAY...STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK. /16
&&
.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...STRATUS DECK WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY. AM EXPECTING MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETS UP
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MINIMUM RH
VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 84 67 83 68 / 00 05 50 40
PENSACOLA 86 72 84 68 / 00 05 40 20
DESTIN 84 71 85 68 / 05 05 30 20
EVERGREEN 82 66 84 62 / 00 05 30 20
WAYNESBORO 81 65 83 63 / 00 05 50 40
CAMDEN 82 66 84 62 / 00 05 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 180949
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
449 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
AGAIN WITH WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...SOME THICK ENOUGH EVEN TO
PRODUCE SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE. THIS MORNING`S CLOUDS HOWEVER
SHOULDN`T HANG ON AS LONG AS YESTERDAY. ONCE CLOUDS LIFT AND
SCATTER...SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.
IN THE BIG PICTURE...A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY BRINGS BACK THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY TO BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE FLUCTUATING LOWER BOUNDARY RIDGE TO OUR NORTH. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD IN.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN ANY CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MID-WEEK.
TEMP WISE EXPECTING NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JONES/90
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
STRATUS FUN AND GAMES UNDERWAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY FORMING
AND SPREADING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN SECTIONS. WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR
AND BEFORE STRATUS ARRIVES...EXPECT TO SEE SOME MVFR BR AT MOST
SITES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE TCL...WHERE RIVER PROXIMITY MAY LOWER VIS
TO VFR...AND BHM WHERE BR IS LESS FAVORED.
OTHERWISE...MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER
STRATUS EVENT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING...MAINLY AT
ANB...WHERE STRATUS IS ALREADY KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP. EXPECT
STRATUS DECK TO FL015 AT MGM AND TOI BY 10Z WITH TEMPO IFR DECK AT
FL008 AT THOSE TWO SITES. EXPECT CLEARING/LIFTING TO VFR AT ALL
SITES BY ABOUT 17Z TOMORROW...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE...TOMORROW NIGHT LOOKS MORE LIKE A TYPICAL MVFR
BR NIGHT...AND WILL HINT AT SUCH WITH LAST LINE WHERE POSSIBLE.
JD/81
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 81 58 82 56 79 / 0 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 81 61 83 59 79 / 0 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 82 63 83 63 80 / 0 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 84 63 84 63 82 / 0 10 10 20 20
CALERA 82 63 83 62 78 / 0 10 10 10 20
AUBURN 78 60 80 60 77 / 0 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 83 64 83 62 81 / 0 10 10 10 20
TROY 80 63 82 60 79 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 180758
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
258 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGING
FROM 55F AT KMSL TO 66F AT K4A9 /AS OF 08Z/. STILL DEALING WITH A
NARROW BAND OF STRATUS THAT STRETCHES ACROSS CULLMAN/MARSHALL AND DE
KALB COUNTIES...BUT CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY BTWN 3-5KFT. TEMPS ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5-10F DEG WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...MAINLY
EAST OF I-65 THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE AND WARMER
AFTN TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR NORTH. LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD BURN
OFF BY MID MORNING AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PUSH ANY CU FIELD MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER BY THIS AFTN. WITH
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS AND A WEAK UPR RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD...TEMPS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING BACK INTO THE LWR/MID 80S WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
UPR LVL S/W CURRENTLY EJECTING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WILL
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THIS FEATURE ENCOUNTERS BETTER
GULF MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LVL CONVG...EXPECT AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP FRIDAY ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY. DRIER E/SE FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM AFFECTING THE
AREA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW -SHRA APPROACH THE
AL/MS BORDER FRI AFTN. FRI NGT INTO SAT...SFC RIDGE WILL "WEDGE"
ITSELF DOWN ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM MOVING MUCH AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS...TEMPS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/UPR TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND BEST FORCING REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY MID
WEEK...AN ELONGATED UPR RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE
NORTHEAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THEN UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH/WEST. ATTM HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ANY SIGNF
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NADLER.83
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 85 61 84 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 10
SHOALS 84 62 83 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 10
CULLMAN 83 62 82 59 80 / 0 0 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 84 59 83 57 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 82 62 82 61 80 / 0 0 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 83 60 82 57 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DJN.83
| 
