[top]
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200536 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1236 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVN DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WITH DRY AIR ABOVE
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT W/ SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
OF LIFR ACROSS INLAND COASTAL PLAINS ALI-VCT AREA.
OTHERWISE...CRP AND LRD ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR/IFR VSBYS W/ BR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND ALL AREAS SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING WITH NO CONCERNS FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS REVEAL NEGATIVE SFC-BASED LI
VALUES OVR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND THE GFS PROGS THIS CONDITION
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MSAS REVEALS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR 60NM OFFSHORE. WL
RETAIN THE FCST FOR CONVECTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TNGT/
EARLY SAT. BOB HALL PIER WATER LEVEL JUST BELOW 2FT MSL...YET
CURRENTLY NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TAMUCC CBI/DNR PERSISTENCE
ANN MODELS SUGGEST THAT LVL AT BOB HALL WL QUICKLY FALL AFT TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. WATER LVLS AT OTHER LOCATIONS BELOW 1.5FT MSL. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW CONDITIONS. NEAR SFC
MSTR/DRIER ALOFT/LGT WIND WL RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA PRIMARILY AFT 06Z SAT...THUS WL RETAIN THE
FCST FOR SUCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...DRIER CONDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE INCREASE IN NEAR SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FOG AND HAZE EARLY SAT MORN. THE FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG
A VCT-BEA-ALI-NQI LINE. WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBLTYS IN BR XPCTD TO
DVLP AFTER 09Z ALONG THIS LINE. LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR VBSLTYS POSSB
11Z-13Z ALONG THIS LINE. VSBLTYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE 13Z-15Z
AS BR DISSIPATES...HWVR -HZ MAY RESULT IN 6SM MI VSBTLYS THRU 18Z
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AREA. FURTHER W...VFR CONDS
XPCTD COT-LRD-HBV-COT THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
SHORT TERM...A DRY AND TRANQUIL WX PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE BASE OF A
TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CWA WL MAINTAIN A DRY AND
SUBSIDENT WX REGIME. THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FNTL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE PD. THIS FEATURE WL LOCK UP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT OVERALL IT WL
REMAIN A DRY FCST. GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE AND DID NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY THRU TUE...HOWEVER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK THE MODELS DIVERGE ON JUST HOW STRONG THE RIDGE IS AND HOW FAR
EAST THE RIDGE IS LOCATED AS WELL AS HOW STRONG A TROF THAT IS PROGD
TO DIG SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND
FARTHER WEST WITH THE RIDGE WITH A TROF EXTENDING FARTHER SW ACROSS
E TX...THUS IS A MUCH WETTER SOLN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER E WITH THE RIDGE AND DRIER ACROSS S
TX. THE GFS DOES PLACE QPF JUST S AND E AT TIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER THE PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR
LESS. PLUS IT PROGS CONFLUENCE ALOFT. NEITHER MODEL SHOW ANY LOW
LEVEL FORCING/BDRIES FOR FOCUS. THEREFORE FOR WED THRU FRI HAVE GONE
WITH 10 TO 20 PERCENT BUT REMOVED MENTION OF 30 PERCENT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. AS FOR TEMPS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY
ABV NORM THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NE IN THE
MORNINGS TO E DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE...A WK TO MODERATE N/NE FLOW WL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD AS
A SFC RDG AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL TX. THE
ONLY INTERRUPTION IN THIS FLOW REGIME WL BE IN THE AFTN AND EVE AS
A WK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. SEAS WL GENERALLY AVG 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 88 69 90 68 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 88 66 90 66 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 92 70 94 71 94 / 0 0 10 10 10
ALICE 90 68 91 67 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 87 72 89 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 92 67 92 68 92 / 0 0 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 90 68 90 68 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 87 74 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MJG...AVIATION
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200528
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION FORECAST DETAILS PROVIDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF ALL
TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
21
[top]
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200458 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1158 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
THE AVIATION FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHOUT PROBLEMS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS...AND/OR
SCATTERED STRATO-CU IN THE EVENING AND MORNINGS...WILL HOLD.
26
&&
.UPDATE...
PACKAGE ON TRACK...MINOR GRID UPDATE FOR TRENDS ONLY. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF STATES
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE...BUT
OVERALL THE TREND FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FOR SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF LOW POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES..WHICH WERE
REMOVED GIVEN THE EXPECTED RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF FORCING
MECHANISM.
ANY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THAN THIS MORNING AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN GRIDDED OR TEXT FORECASTS.
07
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 88 66 90 67 / 0 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 59 90 63 92 66 / 0 5 5 0 5
PARIS, TX 60 86 61 88 63 / 5 5 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 57 89 62 90 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 57 87 59 89 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 64 88 68 89 69 / 0 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 61 88 62 89 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 89 63 89 65 / 0 5 5 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 89 63 91 63 / 0 0 5 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/84
[top]
000
FXUS64 KEWX 200450
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1150 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE VFR CATEGORY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING AT
AUS...BUT THINK IT WILL HOLD OFF ONE MORE NIGHT AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IT IN THIS TAF.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
APPEARS WE HAVE SETTLED INTO A DRY-BENIGN FALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS...STORM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WITH ONLY A SHALLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE
A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE SERN COUNTIES FOR LATE
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 90 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 90 61 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 89 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 89 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11/05
[top]
000
FXUS64 KSJT 200449 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1149 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. VFR FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
11/KEISER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW...
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LITTLE WIND OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. VFR FOR
FORECAST PERIOD.
11/KEISER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUILDS
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS REPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION YESTERDAY.
PREVIOUS SHIFT REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH LOOKS GOOD BASED ON THE 12Z MODELS.
GFS DOES HAVE 700-850MB MOISTURE RETURN WITH SE FLOW FROM GULF
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND NAM MODEL NOT SHOWING THIS. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV MOS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON NIGHTS AND
PERHAPS A DEGREES HIGHER DURING THE DAY TO COMPENSATE FOR FEWER
CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 58 85 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 54 86 57 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 53 89 57 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KAMA 200448 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIODS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER 15Z WITH DIURNAL MIXING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONAL WEAK STORMS ARE FORMING IN NE NEW MEXICO AND MAY
ALSO DRIFT INTO THE NW ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE INSERTED ISOLATED
PRECIP WORDING INTO THE ZONES FOR THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST
TOMORROW...BUT WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
RIDGE...COULD NOT RULE OUT MORE ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. SO INCREASED POPS ABOVE 10 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST BUT DID
NOT MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE JUST YET. ALSO...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST TOMORROW...MODELS SUGGEST LL TEMPS WILL INCREASE. GFS AND NAM
SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RISING BY 1 OR 2C WITH A SLIGHT RISE IN 700MB TEMPS
AS WELL. SO SHOULD ALSO SEE AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES AT THE SURFACE
AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THIS SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES DRIFTING EAST. UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON SUNDAY AND THE MODELS KEEP UPPER SUPPORT FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES HINT AT A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE A SPRINKLE...BUT DECIDED
AGAINST INCREASING POPS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE PANHANDLES BECOMES
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THUS THE PRECIP CHANCES
FALL OFF AS WELL.
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS HAS SPED
UP THE FRONT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS. HAD MIXED FEELINGS WITH JUMPING ON
THE NEW RUN...ESPECIALLY AS THE 00Z AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND THE 18Z DGEX HOLDS OFF ON THE FRONT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE GFS PAINTS A DEEPER AND FURTHER
SOUTH UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING THAN THE EURO. BASED ON RECENT
CLIMO SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG AS MODELS MAY
SUGGEST...DECIDED THAT THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEXT UPPER
LOW MAY BE ABLE TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. THUS...FELT THE GFS
MAY NOT BE THAT FAR OFF. EITHER WAY...THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE VERY
STRONG AND MAY EVEN STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY RETREATING TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SO CAME DOWN SLIGHTLY ON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA ON
TUESDAY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE FRONT APPEARS TO ENTER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GIVING PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE SOUTH TO WARM UP.
MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS EVEN TRY TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE POST FRONTAL PRECIP...WHICH MAY PAN OUT GIVEN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING BRIEF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING YET THOUGH AS THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES WHERE THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR STORMS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
ON WEDNESDAY MAY PREVENT HIGH TEMPS FROM INCREASING MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW DEGREES...IF ANY...FROM TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...THE
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY AND SET UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO THE PANHANDLES. EXPECTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. SO STUCK WITH THE GUIDANCE AND LEFT THE
PACKAGE DRY.
JJB
FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/15
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200249 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
950 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...
PACKAGE ON TRACK...MINOR GRID UPDATE FOR TRENDS ONLY. 84
&&
.AVIATION...
654 PM
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IDEAL FOR AVIATION PURPOSES...A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE. GOOD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
26
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF STATES
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE...BUT
OVERALL THE TREND FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FOR SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF LOW POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES..WHICH WERE
REMOVED GIVEN THE EXPECTED RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF FORCING
MECHANISM.
ANY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THAN THIS MORNING AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN GRIDDED OR TEXT FORECASTS.
07
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 88 66 90 67 / 0 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 59 90 63 92 66 / 0 5 5 0 5
PARIS, TX 60 86 61 88 63 / 5 5 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 57 89 62 90 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 57 87 59 89 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 64 88 68 89 69 / 0 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 61 88 62 89 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 89 63 89 65 / 0 5 5 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 89 63 91 63 / 0 0 5 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/84
[top]
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200247
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
947 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING GRIDS ATTM. ALL THE
PCPN OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT IN/NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT. OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DWPTS CREEP
UPWARD EVER SO SLOWLY THESE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...PATCHY
AREAS OF HAZE/FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
AVIATION...
CU CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...PATCHY AC NEAR THE
COAST...AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OFFSHORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND EAST OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. HAZY SKIES ALREADY
PRESENT THIS EVENING WITH LOWER VISBY AT MOST SITES COMPARED TO YDAY
AT THIS TIME. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE VISBY RESTRICTIONS OF HZ/BR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER AND LOWER...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE IT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOONER. SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY 13-14Z AS HEATING GETS
UNDERWAY.
45
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN HAVE MANAGED TO STAY OFFSHORE TODAY. THESE RAINS SHOULD
SHRINK IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH. SOME MOS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...NO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND ON INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 89 64 89 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 89 66 89 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 71 85 73 85 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200156
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
856 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS REVEAL NEGATIVE SFC-BASED LI
VALUES OVR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND THE GFS PROGS THIS CONDITION
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MSAS REVEALS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR 60NM OFFSHORE. WL
RETAIN THE FCST FOR CONVECTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TNGT/
EARLY SAT. BOB HALL PIER WATER LEVEL JUST BELOW 2FT MSL...YET
CURRENTLY NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TAMUCC CBI/DNR PERSISTENCE
ANN MODELS SUGGEST THAT LVL AT BOB HALL WL QUICKLY FALL AFT TIME
OF HIGH TIDE. WATER LVLS AT OTHER LOCATIONS BELOW 1.5FT MSL. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW CONDITIONS. NEAR SFC
MSTR/DRIER ALOFT/LGT WIND WL RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA PRIMARILY AFT 06Z SAT...THUS WL RETAIN THE
FCST FOR SUCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...DRIER CONDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE INCREASE IN NEAR SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FOG AND HAZE EARLY SAT MORN. THE FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG
A VCT-BEA-ALI-NQI LINE. WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBLTYS IN BR XPCTD TO
DVLP AFTER 09Z ALONG THIS LINE. LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR VBSLTYS POSSB
11Z-13Z ALONG THIS LINE. VSBLTYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE 13Z-15Z
AS BR DISSIPATES...HWVR -HZ MAY RESULT IN 6SM MI VSBTLYS THRU 18Z
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AREA. FURTHER W...VFR CONDS
XPCTD COT-LRD-HBV-COT THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
SHORT TERM...A DRY AND TRANQUIL WX PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE BASE OF A
TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CWA WL MAINTAIN A DRY AND
SUBSIDENT WX REGIME. THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FNTL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE PD. THIS FEATURE WL LOCK UP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT OVERALL IT WL
REMAIN A DRY FCST. GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE AND DID NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY THRU TUE...HOWEVER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK THE MODELS DIVERGE ON JUST HOW STRONG THE RIDGE IS AND HOW FAR
EAST THE RIDGE IS LOCATED AS WELL AS HOW STRONG A TROF THAT IS PROGD
TO DIG SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND
FARTHER WEST WITH THE RIDGE WITH A TROF EXTENDING FARTHER SW ACROSS
E TX...THUS IS A MUCH WETTER SOLN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER E WITH THE RIDGE AND DRIER ACROSS S
TX. THE GFS DOES PLACE QPF JUST S AND E AT TIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER THE PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR
LESS. PLUS IT PROGS CONFLUENCE ALOFT. NEITHER MODEL SHOW ANY LOW
LEVEL FORCING/BDRIES FOR FOCUS. THEREFORE FOR WED THRU FRI HAVE GONE
WITH 10 TO 20 PERCENT BUT REMOVED MENTION OF 30 PERCENT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. AS FOR TEMPS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY
ABV NORM THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NE IN THE
MORNINGS TO E DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE...A WK TO MODERATE N/NE FLOW WL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD AS
A SFC RDG AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL TX. THE
ONLY INTERRUPTION IN THIS FLOW REGIME WL BE IN THE AFTN AND EVE AS
A WK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. SEAS WL GENERALLY AVG 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 88 69 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 64 88 66 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 68 92 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALICE 66 90 68 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 70 87 72 89 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 64 92 67 92 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 72 87 74 88 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBRO 200053
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND
COULD CAUSE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS. A MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS STILL
DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK CAUSING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS ONCE
AGAIN. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. NO
UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 3.5 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 18 CDT/23 UTC. BROAD WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.AVIATION...ALTOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
PUBLIC/GRIDS...65
AVIATION/MARINE/MESO...66
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200033
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
728 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
CU CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY...PATCHY AC NEAR THE
COAST...AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OFFSHORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND EAST OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. HAZY SKIES ALREADY
PRESENT THIS EVENING WITH LOWER VISBY AT MOST SITES COMPARED TO YDAY
AT THIS TIME. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE VISBY RESTRICTIONS OF HZ/BR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER AND LOWER...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE IT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOONER. SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY 13-14Z AS HEATING GETS
UNDERWAY.
45
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN HAVE MANAGED TO STAY OFFSHORE TODAY. THESE RAINS SHOULD
SHRINK IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH. SOME MOS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...NO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND ON INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 42
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OVER LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE
UPPER TX COAST. NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 KTS FOR MOST
MARINE AREAS. WINDS MAY DROP OFF SOME AT NIGHT IN THE BAYS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AT THE 2-4FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN DROP
BELOW 3 FT AFTER THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 89 64 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 89 67 89 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 71 85 72 85 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...45
000
FXUS64 KFWD 192354
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
654 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IDEAL FOR AVIATION PURPOSES...A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE. GOOD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
26
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF STATES
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE...BUT
OVERALL THE TREND FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FOR SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF LOW POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES..WHICH WERE
REMOVED GIVEN THE EXPECTED RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF FORCING
MECHANISM.
ANY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THAN THIS MORNING AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN GRIDDED OR TEXT FORECASTS.
07
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 88 66 90 67 / 0 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 59 90 63 92 66 / 0 5 5 0 5
PARIS, TX 60 86 61 88 63 / 5 5 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 57 89 62 90 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 57 87 59 89 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 64 88 68 89 69 / 0 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 61 88 62 89 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 89 63 89 65 / 0 5 5 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 89 63 91 63 / 0 0 5 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/84
000
FXUS64 KCRP 192341
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...DRIER CONDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE INCREASE IN NEAR SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FOG AND HAZE EARLY SAT MORN. THE FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG
A VCT-BEA-ALI-NQI LINE. WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBLTYS IN BR XPCTD TO
DVLP AFTER 09Z ALONG THIS LINE. LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR VBSLTYS POSSB
11Z-13Z ALONG THIS LINE. VSBLTYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE 13Z-15Z
AS BR DISSIPATES...HWVR -HZ MAY RESULT IN 6SM MI VSBTLYS THRU 18Z
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AREA. FURTHER W...VFR CONDS
XPCTD COT-LRD-HBV-COT THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
SHORT TERM...A DRY AND TRANQUIL WX PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE BASE OF A
TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CWA WL MAINTAIN A DRY AND
SUBSIDENT WX REGIME. THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FNTL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE PD. THIS FEATURE WL LOCK UP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT OVERALL IT WL
REMAIN A DRY FCST. GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE AND DID NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY THRU TUE...HOWEVER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK THE MODELS DIVERGE ON JUST HOW STRONG THE RIDGE IS AND HOW FAR
EAST THE RIDGE IS LOCATED AS WELL AS HOW STRONG A TROF THAT IS PROGD
TO DIG SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND
FARTHER WEST WITH THE RIDGE WITH A TROF EXTENDING FARTHER SW ACROSS
E TX...THUS IS A MUCH WETTER SOLN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER E WITH THE RIDGE AND DRIER ACROSS S
TX. THE GFS DOES PLACE QPF JUST S AND E AT TIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER THE PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR
LESS. PLUS IT PROGS CONFLUENCE ALOFT. NEITHER MODEL SHOW ANY LOW
LEVEL FORCING/BDRIES FOR FOCUS. THEREFORE FOR WED THRU FRI HAVE GONE
WITH 10 TO 20 PERCENT BUT REMOVED MENTION OF 30 PERCENT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. AS FOR TEMPS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY
ABV NORM THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NE IN THE
MORNINGS TO E DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE...A WK TO MODERATE N/NE FLOW WL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD AS
A SFC RDG AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL TX. THE
ONLY INTERRUPTION IN THIS FLOW REGIME WL BE IN THE AFTN AND EVE AS
A WK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. SEAS WL GENERALLY AVG 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 88 69 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 64 88 66 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 68 92 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALICE 66 90 68 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 70 87 72 89 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 64 92 67 92 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 72 87 74 88 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KMAF 192327
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY HIGH
AND SOME MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR 10 MPH OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL HAVE A TEMPO RAIN SHOWER FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT CARLSBAD
FROM 00Z-01Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
NW MID LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF TROF AXIS IS SET-UP FROM CNTRL WYOMING
INTO W TX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE UPSLOPE FLOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL FAVOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NM HIGHLANDS AND DRIFTING SEWD.
MODEST LLJ DEVELOPS AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST STORMS MAY NEAR NRN
PARTS OF SE NM THIS EVENING. FCST HAS ISOLD POPS THERE AND WILL OPT
TO LEAVE AS IS. OVERNIGHT DWPNTS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK INTO
U40S TO N50 AND WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT ACRS MUCH OF THE CWFA. VERY SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SAT EXCEPT THAT NW FETCH SHORTENS AND 7H-5H LR/S DECREASE
TO NEAR 6.5 C/KM AND HIGHLANDS CONVERGENCE SEEMS WEAKER...THUS WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST. 85H BASED LI/S CONTINUE TO BE POSITIVE INTO
SUNDAY WITH 5H RIDGING OVERHEAD. 00Z 85H TEMPS EDGE UP TO 22C WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN M80 TEMPS FOR PB. ABUNDANT GRASS SEEMS TO HAVE
MODERATING AFFECT ON TEMPS...DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE. MID LEVEL WLY
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED MONDAY AS TROF MOVES
THRU THE ROCKY MTNS. THIS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE SFC PRESSURE FALLS
(INCREASED S-SE SFC WINDS) IN THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AND PUSH 85H
THERMAL RIDGE E MAINTAINING NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. DIFFERENCE
APPEARS BTWN ECMWF/GFS TUE WITH GFS FASTER WRT PASSAGE OF TROF AND
FARTHER S WITH FRONTAL POSITION. ECMWF SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE...
BETTER MSTR...AND INCREASED CHC OF RAIN. DIFFICULT ATTP TO DETERMINE
WHICH MODEL TO FAVOR...BUT BASED ON DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT OF 5H
RIDGE INTO FRI TEND TO SIDE WITH THE GFS. STILL MUST NOTE THAT WITH
THE LAST EXTENDED WET PATTERN THE ECMWF NOTABLY OUTPERFORMED THE GFS
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST.
HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THRU BIG BEND. AS OF LATE MORNING THE STAGE AT PRESIDIO
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS JUST ABOVE 27 FT. LEVELS CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO BREACHES ON THE LEVEE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE CONCHOS. ALSO IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT THE LEVEE
HAS BEEN BREACHED SE OF PRESIDIO AND OTHER SECTIONS ARE SHOWING
WEAKNESS AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THERE UNTIL 20/12Z.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 192325 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LITTLE WIND OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. VFR FOR
FORECAST PERIOD.
11/KEISER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUILDS
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS REPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION YESTERDAY.
PREVIOUS SHIFT REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH LOOKS GOOD BASED ON THE 12Z MODELS.
GFS DOES HAVE 700-850MB MOISTURE RETURN WITH SE FLOW FROM GULF
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND NAM MODEL NOT SHOWING THIS. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV MOS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON NIGHTS AND
PERHAPS A DEGREES HIGHER DURING THE DAY TO COMPENSATE FOR FEWER
CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 58 85 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 54 86 57 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 53 89 57 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KEWX 192321
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE VFR CATEGORY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING AT
AUS...BUT THINK IT WILL HOLD OFF ONE MORE NIGHT AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IT IN THIS TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
APPEARS WE HAVE SETTLED INTO A DRY-BENIGN FALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS...STORM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WITH ONLY A SHALLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE
A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE SERN COUNTIES FOR LATE
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 90 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 90 61 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 89 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 89 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11/05
000
FXUS64 KAMA 192313
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGIONS...THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. THESE
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KGUY AND KDHT...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS KAMA. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE...ONLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONAL WEAK STORMS ARE FORMING IN NE NEW MEXICO AND MAY
ALSO DRIFT INTO THE NW ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE INSERTED ISOLATED
PRECIP WORDING INTO THE ZONES FOR THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST
TOMORROW...BUT WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
RIDGE...COULD NOT RULE OUT MORE ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. SO INCREASED POPS ABOVE 10 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST BUT DID
NOT MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE JUST YET. ALSO...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST TOMORROW...MODELS SUGGEST LL TEMPS WILL INCREASE. GFS AND NAM
SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RISING BY 1 OR 2C WITH A SLIGHT RISE IN 700MB TEMPS
AS WELL. SO SHOULD ALSO SEE AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES AT THE SURFACE
AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THIS SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES DRIFTING EAST. UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON SUNDAY AND THE MODELS KEEP UPPER SUPPORT FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES HINT AT A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE A SPRINKLE...BUT DECIDED
AGAINST INCREASING POPS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE PANHANDLES BECOMES
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THUS THE PRECIP CHANCES
FALL OFF AS WELL.
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS HAS SPED
UP THE FRONT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS. HAD MIXED FEELINGS WITH JUMPING ON
THE NEW RUN...ESPECIALLY AS THE 00Z AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND THE 18Z DGEX HOLDS OFF ON THE FRONT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE GFS PAINTS A DEEPER AND FURTHER
SOUTH UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING THAN THE EURO. BASED ON RECENT
CLIMO SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG AS MODELS MAY
SUGGEST...DECIDED THAT THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEXT UPPER
LOW MAY BE ABLE TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. THUS...FELT THE GFS
MAY NOT BE THAT FAR OFF. EITHER WAY...THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE VERY
STRONG AND MAY EVEN STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY RETREATING TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SO CAME DOWN SLIGHTLY ON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA ON
TUESDAY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE FRONT APPEARS TO ENTER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GIVING PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE SOUTH TO WARM UP.
MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS EVEN TRY TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE POST FRONTAL PRECIP...WHICH MAY PAN OUT GIVEN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING BRIEF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING YET THOUGH AS THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES WHERE THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR STORMS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
ON WEDNESDAY MAY PREVENT HIGH TEMPS FROM INCREASING MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW DEGREES...IF ANY...FROM TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...THE
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY AND SET UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO THE PANHANDLES. EXPECTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. SO STUCK WITH THE GUIDANCE AND LEFT THE
PACKAGE DRY.
JJB
FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/16
000
FXUS64 KAMA 192045
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONAL WEAK STORMS ARE FORMING IN NE NEW MEXICO AND MAY
ALSO DRIFT INTO THE NW ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE INSERTED ISOLATED
PRECIP WORDING INTO THE ZONES FOR THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST
TOMORROW...BUT WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
RIDGE...COULD NOT RULE OUT MORE ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. SO INCREASED POPS ABOVE 10 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST BUT DID
NOT MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE JUST YET. ALSO...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST TOMORROW...MODELS SUGGEST LL TEMPS WILL INCREASE. GFS AND NAM
SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RISING BY 1 OR 2C WITH A SLIGHT RISE IN 700MB TEMPS
AS WELL. SO SHOULD ALSO SEE AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES AT THE SURFACE
AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THIS SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES DRIFTING EAST. UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON SUNDAY AND THE MODELS KEEP UPPER SUPPORT FOR
STORMS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES HINT AT A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE A SPRINKLE...BUT DECIDED
AGAINST INCREASING POPS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...THE PANHANDLES BECOMES
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THUS THE PRECIP CHANCES
FALL OFF AS WELL.
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS HAS SPED
UP THE FRONT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS. HAD MIXED FEELINGS WITH JUMPING ON
THE NEW RUN...ESPECIALLY AS THE 00Z AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND THE 18Z DGEX HOLDS OFF ON THE FRONT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE GFS PAINTS A DEEPER AND FURTHER
SOUTH UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING THAN THE EURO. BASED ON RECENT
CLIMO SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG AS MODELS MAY
SUGGEST...DECIDED THAT THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEXT UPPER
LOW MAY BE ABLE TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL US. THUS...FELT THE GFS
MAY NOT BE THAT FAR OFF. EITHER WAY...THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE VERY
STRONG AND MAY EVEN STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY RETREATING TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SO CAME DOWN SLIGHTLY ON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA ON
TUESDAY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE FRONT APPEARS TO ENTER THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GIVING PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE SOUTH TO WARM UP.
MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS EVEN TRY TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE POST FRONTAL PRECIP...WHICH MAY PAN OUT GIVEN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING BRIEF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING YET THOUGH AS THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES WHERE THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR STORMS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
ON WEDNESDAY MAY PREVENT HIGH TEMPS FROM INCREASING MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW DEGREES...IF ANY...FROM TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...THE
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY AND SET UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO THE PANHANDLES. EXPECTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED. SO STUCK WITH THE GUIDANCE AND LEFT THE
PACKAGE DRY.
JJB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 53 80 55 84 58 / 10 0 5 5 10
BEAVER OK 55 84 57 85 59 / 10 0 10 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 52 80 54 82 56 / 10 10 10 5 10
BORGER TX 54 84 57 87 63 / 10 0 10 5 10
BOYS RANCH TX 53 84 56 86 60 / 10 0 10 5 10
CANYON TX 52 81 55 84 57 / 10 0 5 5 5
CLARENDON TX 56 82 57 85 60 / 10 0 5 5 10
DALHART TX 53 81 53 83 56 / 10 5 10 5 10
GUYMON OK 53 83 55 85 59 / 10 0 10 10 10
HEREFORD TX 52 81 53 83 57 / 10 0 5 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 55 83 57 85 61 / 10 0 5 5 10
PAMPA TX 54 81 57 84 61 / 10 0 5 5 10
SHAMROCK TX 57 84 57 86 63 / 10 0 5 5 10
WELLINGTON TX 58 85 59 86 63 / 10 0 5 5 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
02/14
000
FXUS64 KFWD 192027
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF STATES
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE...BUT
OVERALL THE TREND FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FOR SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF LOW POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES..WHICH WERE
REMOVED GIVEN THE EXPECTED RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF FORCING
MECHANISM.
ANY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THAN THIS MORNING AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN GRIDDED OR TEXT FORECASTS.
07
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 88 66 90 67 / 0 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 59 90 63 92 66 / 0 5 5 0 5
PARIS, TX 60 86 61 88 63 / 5 5 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 57 89 62 90 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 57 87 59 89 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 64 88 68 89 69 / 0 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 61 88 62 89 64 / 0 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 89 63 89 65 / 0 5 5 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 89 63 91 63 / 0 0 5 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/07
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLUB 192024
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
324 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SHORT TERM...
NICE EARLY FALL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONVECTION OVER THE NM MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE HAS
TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS IT
WEAKENS...MOSTLY IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. THAT SAID...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME TSRA ALONG THE NM BORDER.
WITH NW FLOW OF ONLY 20 KTS AND LOW CAPES...EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
DIE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA KEEPING SKIES
MOSTLY SUNNY ONCE AGAIN. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
26
&&
.LONG TERM...
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY AS NEXT SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES
STEERS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
FLAT PATTERN WILL ALLOW FRONT TO DRAG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OR INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY OR SO. BUT LATEST VERSIONS OF BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC PRESSING THIS FRONT ANY
FURTHER SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD AND
NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. TRENDS SUPPORT
MAINTAINING A DRY AND MILD/WARM FORECAST...WITH SEASONALLY COOL
LOWS. MCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 51 82 52 80 55 / 20 10 10 10 10
TULIA 52 83 53 81 56 / 10 10 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 53 82 53 80 56 / 10 10 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 55 84 53 81 56 / 10 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 56 83 55 81 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 56 84 53 81 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 56 84 54 81 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 56 86 58 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 10
SPUR 57 84 55 82 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 58 86 56 86 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/05
[top]
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192022
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
221 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY COMBINE TO GENERATE
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WHILE THE LOWLANDS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS MAIN STORM
TRACK CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WARMING AND MINOR INSTABILITY...AND WEAK IMPULSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO KICK OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE CWA...BUT LIMITED MOSTLY TO MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND SUBTROPICAL HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH AND
REPLACES THE WESTERLIES WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
KEPT TOKEN MOUNTAIN POPS IN AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK
THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE.
LONGER RANGE...GFS SHOWS EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM TRYING TO
PUSH MOISTURE UP TOWARDS US BUT FOR NOW UPPER HIGH KEEPING THIS
SOUTH OF US. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 20/0000Z-21/0000Z...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWLAND AREAS THAT COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER AREA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWLAND AREAS THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR AND DRY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE GILA AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY
MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY EVENING. DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 60 86 61 87 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 57 84 55 84 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 57 86 58 86 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 85 55 83 55 / 10 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 69 40 70 41 / 10 20 20 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 84 56 85 56 / 10 10 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 53 79 53 81 53 / 10 10 10 0 0
DEMING 56 87 56 87 57 / 10 0 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 56 88 57 87 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/PARK
000
FXUS64 KCRP 192002
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
302 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SHORT TERM...A DRY AND TRANQUIL WX PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE BASE OF A
TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CWA WL MAINTAIN A DRY AND
SUBSIDENT WX REGIME. THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FNTL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE PD. THIS FEATURE WL LOCK UP THE DEEP MOISTURE AND KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT OVERALL IT WL
REMAIN A DRY FCST. GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE AND DID NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY THRU TUE...HOWEVER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK THE MODELS DIVERGE ON JUST HOW STRONG THE RIDGE IS AND HOW FAR
EAST THE RIDGE IS LOCATED AS WELL AS HOW STRONG A TROF THAT IS PROGD
TO DIG SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND
FARTHER WEST WITH THE RIDGE WITH A TROF EXTENDING FARTHER SW ACROSS
E TX...THUS IS A MUCH WETTER SOLN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER E WITH THE RIDGE AND DRIER ACROSS S
TX. THE GFS DOES PLACE QPF JUST S AND E AT TIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER THE PWAT`S ARE PROGD TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR
LESS. PLUS IT PROGS CONFLUENCE ALOFT. NEITHER MODEL SHOW ANY LOW
LEVEL FORCING/BDRIES FOR FOCUS. THEREFORE FOR WED THRU FRI HAVE GONE
WITH 10 TO 20 PERCENT BUT REMOVED MENTION OF 30 PERCENT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. AS FOR TEMPS...THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY
ABV NORM THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NE IN THE
MORNINGS TO E DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.AVIATION...DRYING ALOFT ALONG WITH A SUBTLE MOISTENING OF THE
SFC-BASED LAYER WL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS WL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INLAND PORTION
OF SOUTH TX BY 07Z TNT. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WL THEN SPREAD SOUTH
AND WEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ALICE AND VICTORIA BETWEEN 10Z
AND 13Z SATURDAY. EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD AND THICKER FOG IS EXPECTED
TMW NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...A WK TO MODERATE N/NE FLOW WL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD AS
A SFC RDG AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL TX. THE ONLY
INTERRUPTION IN THIS FLOW REGIME WL BE IN THE AFTN AND EVE AS A WK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. SEAS WL GENERALLY AVG 3-4 FT
THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 88 69 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 64 88 66 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 68 92 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALICE 66 90 68 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 70 87 72 89 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 64 92 67 92 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 72 87 74 88 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KSJT 191958
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
258 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUILDS
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS REPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION YESTERDAY.
PREVIOUS SHIFT REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH LOOKS GOOD BASED ON THE 12Z MODELS.
GFS DOES HAVE 700-850MB MOISTURE RETURN WITH SE FLOW FROM GULF
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND NAM MODEL NOT SHOWING THIS. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV MOS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON NIGHTS AND
PERHAPS A DEGREES HIGHER DURING THE DAY TO COMPENSATE FOR FEWER
CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 58 85 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 54 86 57 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 53 89 57 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191944
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN HAVE MANAGED TO STAY OFFSHORE TODAY. THESE RAINS SHOULD
SHRINK IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH. SOME MOS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...NO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND ON INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE TX WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OZARKS MOVES EAST. AGAIN TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR UTS AND CXO. FOG SHOULD
LIFT AROUND 14Z AND AGAIN LOOK FOR LOW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
39
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OVER LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE
UPPER TX COAST. NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 KTS FOR MOST
MARINE AREAS. WINDS MAY DROP OFF SOME AT NIGHT IN THE BAYS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AT THE 2-4FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN DROP
BELOW 3 FT AFTER THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 89 64 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 89 67 89 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 71 85 72 85 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39
000
FXUS64 KEWX 191942
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
242 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
APPEARS WE HAVE SETTLED INTO A DRY-BENIGN FALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS...STORM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WITH ONLY A SHALLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE
A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY NEXT WEEK.
HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE SERN COUNTIES FOR LATE
TONIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 89 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 91 61 92 64 / 0 0 0 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 89 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 89 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10/01
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191932
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
232 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
NW MID LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF TROF AXIS IS SET-UP FROM CNTRL WYOMING
INTO W TX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE UPSLOPE FLOW/MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL FAVOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NM HIGHLANDS AND DRIFTING SEWD.
MODEST LLJ DEVELOPS AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST STORMS MAY NEAR NRN
PARTS OF SE NM THIS EVENING. FCST HAS ISOLD POPS THERE AND WILL OPT
TO LEAVE AS IS. OVERNIGHT DWPNTS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK INTO
U40S TO N50 AND WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT ACRS MUCH OF THE CWFA. VERY SIMILAR
CONDITIONS SAT EXCEPT THAT NW FETCH SHORTENS AND 7H-5H LR/S DECREASE
TO NEAR 6.5 C/KM AND HIGHLANDS CONVERGENCE SEEMS WEAKER...THUS WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST. 85H BASED LI/S CONTINUE TO BE POSITIVE INTO
SUNDAY WITH 5H RIDGING OVERHEAD. 00Z 85H TEMPS EDGE UP TO 22C WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN M80 TEMPS FOR PB. ABUNDANT GRASS SEEMS TO HAVE
MODERATING AFFECT ON TEMPS...DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE. MID LEVEL WLY
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED MONDAY AS TROF MOVES
THRU THE ROCKY MTNS. THIS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE SFC PRESSURE FALLS
(INCREASED S-SE SFC WINDS) IN THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AND PUSH 85H
THERMAL RIDGE E MAINTAINING NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. DIFFERENCE
APPEARS BTWN ECMWF/GFS TUE WITH GFS FASTER WRT PASSAGE OF TROF AND
FARTHER S WITH FRONTAL POSITION. ECMWF SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE...
BETTER MSTR...AND INCREASED CHC OF RAIN. DIFFICULT ATTP TO DETERMINE
WHICH MODEL TO FAVOR...BUT BASED ON DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT OF 5H
RIDGE INTO FRI TEND TO SIDE WITH THE GFS. STILL MUST NOTE THAT WITH
THE LAST EXTENDED WET PATTERN THE ECMWF NOTABLY OUTPERFORMED THE GFS
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THRU BIG BEND. AS OF LATE MORNING THE STAGE AT PRESIDIO
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS JUST ABOVE 27 FT. LEVELS CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO BREACHES ON THE LEVEE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE CONCHOS. ALSO IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT THE LEVEE
HAS BEEN BREACHED SE OF PRESIDIO AND OTHER SECTIONS ARE SHOWING
WEAKNESS AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THERE UNTIL 20/12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 58 84 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 56 85 57 87 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 61 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 60 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 58 80 60 81 / 10 10 0 10
HOBBS NM 55 84 58 86 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA TX 48 80 49 81 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 57 84 59 87 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 59 86 61 87 / 10 0 0 0
WINK TX 59 88 61 91 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191847
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
147 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE VALLEY ANY TIME IN THE
NEAR FUTURE WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF A DRY FORECAST. GFS AND NAM
BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT IN KEEPING BULK OF MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEAK LOW THAT IS TRYING TO SHOW SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO ALSO STAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. ANY RAIN THAT MAY AFFECT THE REGION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION NEXT
WEEK. UPPER PATTERN INLAND SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
TEXAS NEXT WEEK AFTER A MID CONTINENT TROUGH TRACKS EAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER EAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH A CONTINUED CLIMB TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND
AND POSSIBLY GOING ABOVE NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VIS SATL TRENDS SHOW CU DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALONG WITH SOME MID AND HIGHER AC AND CI. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS OVER THE TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
FEATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING OUT OF THE LOWER CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TOWARDS EARLY EVENING AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS REMAIN
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...THE 1PM BUOY020 DATA REPORTS A NNE WIND AROUND 14 KTS AND
SEAS AROUND 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS HAVE REMAINED RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY. A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN
PRODUCING CONV ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE REGIONS. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND OUT OF OUR
COASTAL ZONES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS. CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE DAY INTO SATURDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 88 73 88 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 70 88 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 69 90 70 89 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 69 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 66 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 86 74 85 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
59/57
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191755
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND HARD TO NAIL DOWN A DIRECTION...BUT
KEPT TREND OF ENE GOING. SPEEDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS EXPECTED AT 5000 FT...WITH GENERALLY SKC TONIGHT. NO
REPEAT OF BR/HZ EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS MUCH LOWER
THAN EXPECTED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TX PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER EASTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. CURRENT GRIDS/TEXT FORECASTS COVER THIS
WELL...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL TEXAS LEFT
THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND IS NOW IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH BROUGHT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. THE FEATURE WILL
SKIRT THE RED RIVER TODAY...BUT WITH FEW CLOUDS TO SHOW FOR IT
NOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...IT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
TO NORTH TEXAS WITH MINIMAL ELEVATED MOISTURE TO LIFT.
THE TROUGH WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CU FIELD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS
EVIDENCE OF THE RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD...BUT ADEQUATE
MOISTURE IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL CONTEND
THAT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CWA.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDING MID-WEEK TROUGH
FURTHER NORTH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN EAST TEXAS AS
RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...AND WILL KEEP
MENTION IN EASTERN ZONES FOR DAYS 6-7 (WED-THURS).
EXTENDED MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF
SEPTEMBER. WITH WESTERLIES REMAINING WELL NORTH...COOL WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR A WHILE.
CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS KEEP NORTH TEXAS NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 66 87 67 88 / 0 0 5 5 0
WACO, TX 85 60 89 62 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
PARIS, TX 82 61 86 60 85 / 5 5 10 10 5
DENTON, TX 83 58 86 60 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
MCKINNEY, TX 85 57 85 58 86 / 0 0 5 5 0
DALLAS, TX 85 65 86 66 86 / 0 0 5 5 0
TERRELL, TX 84 61 86 61 86 / 0 0 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 85 62 86 62 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 84 60 87 62 88 / 0 0 5 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/07
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191753
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1253 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF DISC...
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE TX WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OZARKS MOVES EAST. AGAIN TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR UTS AND CXO. FOG SHOULD
LIFT AROUND 14Z AND AGAIN LOOK FOR LOW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
NOT AS MANY CLOUDS TODAY AS WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. IAH
IS ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OF YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING WHICH IS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.
READINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST INLAND
AREAS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL AFFECT RURAL AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CWA AND SWEEPING
THE BLANKET OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WE`VE HAD THE LAST FEW DAYS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. GPSMET DATA SHOWS PWS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND
AN INCH...SO WILL LIMIT MENTION OF PRECIP TO THE OFFSHORE AREAS.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD
WHICH WILL AID IN CLEAN UP EFFORTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS...OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT EACH DAY WITH
ONLY SOME THIN SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOONS. WILL
PROBABLY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
IT SHOULD STAY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED 5-10 POPS WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN RURAL AREAS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OF 87 TO 90 INLAND...MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE (60S) SO AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET HIGHER THAN THE 90 TO 93 RANGE.
TEMPS WILL STILL COOL TO THE 60S AT NIGHT MOST INLAND AREAS...BUT
WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. SFC WINDS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY BY MIDWEEK WHICH ALLOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS (PWS INCREASING TO 1.5-1.6 INCHES) WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT THESE DAYS.
ANOTHER SFC HIGH RIDGES WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS BEGINNING FRIDAY
WHICH WILL DRY THINGS OUT AGAIN...AND RESULT IN LOWER
HUMIDITIES/SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
35
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PREVAILING
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER REGION EXCEPT FOR NW ZONES INCLUDING CLL TAF
SITE WHERE AIR MASS STARTING TO BECOME SOMEWHAT DRIER AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM REGION. TEMPERATURES GETTING
CLOSER TO DEWPOINTS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION AND UTS HAS REPORTED
LIGHT FOG (MVFR) EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT COAST. 37
MARINE...
COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST
LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE ENE. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL FOR THE
MOST PART PREVAIL. NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4
FEET FARTHER OFFSHORE REGION OF MARINE CWFA. 37
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 62 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 65 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 71 85 72 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39
000
FXUS64 KAMA 191731 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1231 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL FOR THIS
TAF CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN AS ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
TAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT DISSIPATED
QUICKLY AND DID NOT AFFECT THE PANHANDLES SIGNIFICANTLY. RIGHT
NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO THE WEST LATER
TODAY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT UNTIL LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...LL SOUTHEAST FLOW COULD BRING
IN SOME MOISTURE WHICH COULD FUEL STORMS THAT MANAGE TO HOLD
TOGETHER. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.
THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES TO THE EAST BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND BRINGS SOME COOLER AIR TOWARD THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.
MAX TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FROPA
BUT DID NOT TRY TO GET FANCY WITH ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN THAT
FAR OUT.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHADED POPS HIGHER ACCORDINGLY. POPS REMAIN JUST
BELOW MENTIONABLE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT AS THE CHANCES
BECOME CLEARER.
WYNNE
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS BRIEFLY GUST AROUND
AIR MASS CHANGES.
WYNNE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191724
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS MAY WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BY
MID-HIGH BASED.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
32
000
FXUS64 KSJT 191712
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH
FURTHER EAST TODAY AND UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMO. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVES QUICKLY EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TRAILING FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL LEAN ON
THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE AND CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 85 60 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 86 55 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 87 56 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
12
000
FXUS64 KEWX 191710 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM THE E-NE UNDER
10 KTS. KDRT WILL HAVE E/SE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS. FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOONS...OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM MEXICO AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BROAD SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH MOSTLY A NELY DIRECTION. ONLY A FEW
AFTERNOON FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED; BRIEF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES
ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING..A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
WAS ANCHORING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND DRIER WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A LITTLE MORE DYNAMIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONTINUED COOL NIGHTS. UPPER DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY. A BELT OF WESTERLIES
PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST TOMORROW WILL SWEEP INLAND
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE U.S. PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH A
STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PATTERN FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY..BUT DUE TO THE
UPPER RIDGE..WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT..WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
LOWS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EASTERLIES OVER THE
GULF SHOULD BRING CONVERGENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COASTAL
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW DRIFTING INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES.
BY THURSDAY..CONTINUED BUILDUP OF GULF MOISTURE UNDER TROPICAL
EASTERLIES SHOULD ENHANCE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 86 64 91 66 92 / 0 0 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 58 91 61 92 / 0 0 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 62 90 66 92 / 0 0 - - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 63 89 65 91 / 0 0 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/10
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191611
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1111 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
NOT AS MANY CLOUDS TODAY AS WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. IAH
IS ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OF YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATE WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING WHICH IS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.
READINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST INLAND
AREAS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL AFFECT RURAL AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CWA AND SWEEPING
THE BLANKET OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WE`VE HAD THE LAST FEW DAYS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. GPSMET DATA SHOWS PWS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND
AN INCH...SO WILL LIMIT MENTION OF PRECIP TO THE OFFSHORE AREAS.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD
WHICH WILL AID IN CLEAN UP EFFORTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS...OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT EACH DAY WITH
ONLY SOME THIN SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOONS. WILL
PROBABLY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
IT SHOULD STAY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED 5-10 POPS WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN RURAL AREAS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OF 87 TO 90 INLAND...MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE (60S) SO AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET HIGHER THAN THE 90 TO 93 RANGE.
TEMPS WILL STILL COOL TO THE 60S AT NIGHT MOST INLAND AREAS...BUT
WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. SFC WINDS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY BY MIDWEEK WHICH ALLOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS (PWS INCREASING TO 1.5-1.6 INCHES) WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT THESE DAYS.
ANOTHER SFC HIGH RIDGES WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS BEGINNING FRIDAY
WHICH WILL DRY THINGS OUT AGAIN...AND RESULT IN LOWER
HUMIDITIES/SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
35
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PREVAILING
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER REGION EXCEPT FOR NW ZONES INCLUDING CLL TAF
SITE WHERE AIR MASS STARTING TO BECOME SOMEWHAT DRIER AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM REGION. TEMPERATURES GETTING
CLOSER TO DEWPOINTS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION AND UTS HAS REPORTED
LIGHT FOG (MVFR) EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT COAST. 37
MARINE...
COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST
LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE ENE. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL FOR THE
MOST PART PREVAIL. NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4
FEET FARTHER OFFSHORE REGION OF MARINE CWFA. 37
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 62 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 65 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 71 85 72 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191552
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1052 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TX PANHANDLE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER EASTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. CURRENT GRIDS/TEXT FORECASTS COVER THIS
WELL...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO 06Z TAF SET FOR N TX AIRPORTS WITH VFR CONDS TO
CONT...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS MAY BE REALIZED BEFORE 15Z.
S/W DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH UPPER LO CENTERED OVER
NRN OK/SRN KS AND OVER AREAS N OF I-20 CORRIDOR...LIKELY RESULTING
IN SOME SCT CLOUDINESS BY 18Z OVER D/FW SITES...LESS SO AROUND KACT
VCNTY. VRB WNDS 3-5 KTS THRU 16Z- 18Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
RIGHT OVER AREA...BUT MIXING TO RESULT IN E/NELY FLOW 6-9 KTS...THEN
BACK TO LGT/VRB WINDS TNGT AS DRY LOW LVL AIRMASS DECOUPLES QUICKLY.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL TEXAS LEFT
THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND IS NOW IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH BROUGHT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. THE FEATURE WILL
SKIRT THE RED RIVER TODAY...BUT WITH FEW CLOUDS TO SHOW FOR IT
NOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...IT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
TO NORTH TEXAS WITH MINIMAL ELEVATED MOISTURE TO LIFT.
THE TROUGH WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CU FIELD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS
EVIDENCE OF THE RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD...BUT ADEQUATE
MOISTURE IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL CONTEND
THAT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CWA.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDING MID-WEEK TROUGH
FURTHER NORTH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN EAST TEXAS AS
RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...AND WILL KEEP
MENTION IN EASTERN ZONES FOR DAYS 6-7 (WED-THURS).
EXTENDED MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF
SEPTEMBER. WITH WESTERLIES REMAINING WELL NORTH...COOL WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR A WHILE.
CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS KEEP NORTH TEXAS NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 66 87 67 88 / 0 0 5 5 0
WACO, TX 85 60 89 62 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
PARIS, TX 82 61 86 60 85 / 5 5 10 10 5
DENTON, TX 83 58 86 60 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
MCKINNEY, TX 85 57 85 58 86 / 0 0 5 5 0
DALLAS, TX 85 65 86 66 86 / 0 0 5 5 0
TERRELL, TX 84 61 86 61 86 / 0 0 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 85 62 86 62 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 84 60 87 62 88 / 0 0 5 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/07
000
FXUS64 KCRP 191441
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
941 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATES MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
ALOFT COMPARED TO YDA. WHILE THERE IS STILL A WK MID-LVL TROUGH
AXIS TO OUR WEST...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST GULF. PCPN IN ASSCTN WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSCTD FNTL BNDRY WL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THERE MAY
BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS TDA BUT THAT
WL BE ABOUT IT. GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS TDA...WL BE MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPS...WE SHOULD SEE A NICE
WARMING TREND OF 2-5 DEGREES COMPARED TO YDA GIVEN THE INCREASED
SOLAR INSOLATION. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL TDA FOR THE TAF SITES.
MODERATE NE FLOW OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY APPROACH CAUTIONARY
LVLS TDA BUT MOST AREAS WL REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WL
AVG 3-5 FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 67 89 67 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 86 64 89 65 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 90 68 93 70 94 / 10 0 0 0 10
ALICE 89 65 91 66 91 / 10 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 85 70 88 70 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 90 63 91 66 92 / 10 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 87 66 90 68 90 / 10 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 70 86 70 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191437
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
937 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING VERY STABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AT 1.36 INCHES...K INDEX AT -12 AND TT AT 1. DRY ATMOSPHERE
AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DIURNAL WARM UP
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. INCREASED FORECAST MAX TEMPS ONE CATEGORY
TODAY...MAINLY EAST. POPS OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS WERE SCALED
BACK WITH GREATEST POPS ACROSS THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. A GOOD
SWATH OF DRY AIR OVER TEXAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP. MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ARKANSAS WITH ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE OVER
WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST WITH DRY
AIR TO BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAK BOUNDARY WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD STAY OVER THE GULF MOVING
MORE SOUTHEAST THEN NORTHWEST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
FOR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES TO WARM NEAR OR
EVEN POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL FORE SOME LOCATIONS. MORE ON THIS IN
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...IR SATL TRENDS INDICATE SOME SCT HIGH CLDS PUSHING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SFC OBS IN THE AREA ARE
INDICATING SOME HAZY SKIES BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN DUE TO SCT CU DEVELOPMENT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS
AT THE TAF SITES TO REFLECT THIS. WILL MONITOR RADAR FOR POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL
AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY020 DATA REPORTS A NNE WIND AROUND 14 KTS AND
SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS. A BROAD
SURFACE TROF REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
HAS BEEN PRODUCING A LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE SURFACE FLOW WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. SEAS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE
LAST 24 HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE DAY AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 70 84 70 / 0 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 88 69 88 69 / 0 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 88 68 90 68 / 0 10 10 10
MCALLEN 90 68 91 69 / 0 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 92 66 93 67 / 0 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 72 82 73 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
59/57
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191158
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
658 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...JUST ADDED PRELIM TEMP/POP TABLE BELOW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS, CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY
EVENINGS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY TODAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...CURRENT BUOY020 DATA REPORTS AN ENE WIND AROUND 10 KTS
WITH SWELLS AROUND 4 FT. GWW GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ENE-NE SURFACE FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE TROFFING PREVAILS OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND THE WESTERN CARIB SEA. SWELLS WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW
THROUGHOUT THIS CURRENT CWF PERIOD AND THIS IS PRETTY WELL REFLECTED
IN THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST WORDING. THE PGF SHOWN IN THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS TIGHTENS UP SOME LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN
HIGHER SEAS ON AND AFTER THURSDAY.
AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SCT HIGH LEVEL CLDS ADVECTING OVER
THE LOWER RGV. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. DAYTIME HEATING LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SOME LOWER CEILINGS DUE TO SC/CU FORMATION. WILL REFLECT
THIS WITH SOME TEMPO REMARKS LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 70 84 70 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 86 69 88 69 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 86 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10
MCALLEN 88 68 91 69 / 10 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 66 93 67 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 72 82 73 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
59/51
000
FXUS64 KAMA 191131 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN AS ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
TAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT DISSIPATED
QUICKLY AND DID NOT AFFECT THE PANHANDLES SIGNIFICANTLY. RIGHT
NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO THE WEST LATER
TODAY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT UNTIL LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...LL SOUTHEAST FLOW COULD BRING
IN SOME MOISTURE WHICH COULD FUEL STORMS THAT MANAGE TO HOLD
TOGETHER. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.
THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES TO THE EAST BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND BRINGS SOME COOLER AIR TOWARD THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.
MAX TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FROPA
BUT DID NOT TRY TO GET FANCY WITH ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN THAT
FAR OUT.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHADED POPS HIGHER ACCORDINGLY. POPS REMAIN JUST
BELOW MENTIONABLE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT AS THE CHANCES
BECOME CLEARER.
WYNNE
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS BRIEFLY GUST AROUND
AIR MASS CHANGES.
WYNNE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/21
000
FXUS64 KEWX 191128
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BROAD SFC RIDGE
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH MOSTLY A NELY DIRECTION. ONLY A FEW
AFTERNOON FAIR WX CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED; BRIEF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES
ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING..A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
WAS ANCHORING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND DRIER WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A LITTLE MORE DYNAMIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONTINUED COOL NIGHTS. UPPER DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY. A BELT OF WESTERLIES
PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST TOMORROW WILL SWEEP INLAND
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE U.S. PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH A
STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PATTERN FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY..BUT DUE TO THE
UPPER RIDGE..WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT..WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
LOWS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EASTERLIES OVER THE
GULF SHOULD BRING CONVERGENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COASTAL
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW DRIFTING INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES.
BY THURSDAY..CONTINUED BUILDUP OF GULF MOISTURE UNDER TROPICAL
EASTERLIES SHOULD ENHANCE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 86 64 91 66 92 / 0 0 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 58 91 61 92 / 0 0 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 90 66 92 / - 0 - - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 63 89 65 91 / 0 0 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02/18
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191121
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THESE AREAS...TO NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
LIKELY PREVENT MUCH RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE GROUND...SO HAVE ONLY
INSERTED ISOLATED SHOWERS THERE TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...ONLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN MOST
AREAS...AND LIKELY CLOSE TO MAVMOS WHICH HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING OF
LATE. MINS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SATURDAY THAN THIS
MORNING TOO.
THE SAME SCENARIO APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY AS SAID UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE PLAINS. AGAIN...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD NEAR THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY AT THIS TIME DUE TO CONTINUED DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WHICH PORTENDS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY
MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...
THEN TRANSLATES EASTWARD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS...AND TUESDAY...WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN SLIM AS MOST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT
THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE BIG BEND. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE STAGE AT
PRESIDIO INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS DOWN TO 27.4 FT...BUT STILL IN
MAJOR FLOOD. THE RIVER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE DUE TO BREACHES ON THE LEVEE IN MEXICO ALONG THE
CONCHOS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED RELEASES FROM LAKE LUIS LEON
RESERVOIR IN MEXICO. CONSIDERING REPORTS OF THE LEVEE SOUTHEAST
OF PRESIDIO BEING BREACHED YESTERDAY...AND OTHER SECTIONS SHOWING
WEAKNESS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THERE UNTIL 20/00Z.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191117 CCA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED/CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO 06Z TAF SET FOR N TX AIRPORTS WITH VFR CONDS TO
CONT...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS MAY BE REALIZED BEFORE 15Z.
S/W DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH UPPER LO CENTERED OVER
NRN OK/SRN KS AND OVER AREAS N OF I-20 CORRIDOR...LIKELY RESULTING
IN SOME SCT CLOUDINESS BY 18Z OVER D/FW SITES...LESS SO AROUND KACT
VCNTY. VRB WNDS 3-5 KTS THRU 16Z- 18Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
RIGHT OVER AREA...BUT MIXING TO RESULT IN E/NELY FLOW 6-9 KTS...THEN
BACK TO LGT/VRB WINDS TNGT AS DRY LOW LVL AIRMASS DECOUPLES QUICKLY.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL TEXAS LEFT
THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND IS NOW IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH BROUGHT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. THE FEATURE WILL
SKIRT THE RED RIVER TODAY...BUT WITH FEW CLOUDS TO SHOW FOR IT
NOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...IT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
TO NORTH TEXAS WITH MINIMAL ELEVATED MOISTURE TO LIFT.
THE TROUGH WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CU FIELD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS
EVIDENCE OF THE RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD...BUT ADEQUATE
MOISTURE IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL CONTEND
THAT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CWA.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDING MID-WEEK TROUGH
FURTHER NORTH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN EAST TEXAS AS
RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...AND WILL KEEP
MENTION IN EASTERN ZONES FOR DAYS 6-7 (WED-THURS).
EXTENDED MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF
SEPTEMBER. WITH WESTERLIES REMAINING WELL NORTH...COOL WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR A WHILE.
CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS KEEP NORTH TEXAS NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 66 87 67 88 / 0 0 5 5 0
WACO, TX 85 60 89 62 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
PARIS, TX 82 61 86 60 85 / 5 5 10 10 5
DENTON, TX 83 58 86 60 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
MCKINNEY, TX 85 57 85 58 86 / 0 0 5 5 0
DALLAS, TX 85 65 86 66 86 / 0 0 5 5 0
TERRELL, TX 84 61 86 61 86 / 0 0 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 85 62 86 62 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 84 60 87 62 88 / 0 0 5 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
000
FXUS64 KSJT 191114
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
614 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMO. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVES QUICKLY EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TRAILING FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL LEAN ON
THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE AND CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 85 60 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 86 55 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 87 56 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
LACY
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191105 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO 06Z TAF SET FOR N TX AIRPORTS WITH VFR CONDS TO
CONT. S/W DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH UPPER LO CENTERED
OVER NRN OK/SRN KS AND OVER AREAS N OF I-20 CORRIDOR...LIKELY RESULTING
IN SOME SCT CLOUDINESS BY 18Z OVER D/FW SITES...LESS SO AROUND KACT
VCNTY. VRB WNDS 3-5 KTS THRU 16Z- 18Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
RIGHT OVER AREA...BUT MIXING TO RESULT IN E/NELY FLOW 6-9 KTS...THEN
BACK TO LGT/VRB WINDS TNGT AS DRY LOW LVL AIRMASS DECOUPLES QUICKLY.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL TEXAS LEFT
THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND IS NOW IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH BROUGHT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. THE FEATURE WILL
SKIRT THE RED RIVER TODAY...BUT WITH FEW CLOUDS TO SHOW FOR IT
NOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...IT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
TO NORTH TEXAS WITH MINIMAL ELEVATED MOISTURE TO LIFT.
THE TROUGH WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CU FIELD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS
EVIDENCE OF THE RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD...BUT ADEQUATE
MOISTURE IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL CONTEND
THAT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CWA.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDING MID-WEEK TROUGH
FURTHER NORTH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN EAST TEXAS AS
RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...AND WILL KEEP
MENTION IN EASTERN ZONES FOR DAYS 6-7 (WED-THURS).
EXTENDED MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF
SEPTEMBER. WITH WESTERLIES REMAINING WELL NORTH...COOL WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR A WHILE.
CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS KEEP NORTH TEXAS NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 66 87 67 88 / 0 0 5 5 0
WACO, TX 85 60 89 62 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
PARIS, TX 82 61 86 60 85 / 5 5 10 10 5
DENTON, TX 83 58 86 60 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
MCKINNEY, TX 85 57 85 58 86 / 0 0 5 5 0
DALLAS, TX 85 65 86 66 86 / 0 0 5 5 0
TERRELL, TX 84 61 86 61 86 / 0 0 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 85 62 86 62 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 84 60 87 62 88 / 0 0 5 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
000
FXUS64 KAMA 190930
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
430 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT DISSIPATED
QUICKLY AND DID NOT AFFECT THE PANHANDLES SIGNIFICANTLY. RIGHT
NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO THE WEST LATER
TODAY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT UNTIL LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...LL SOUTHEAST FLOW COULD BRING
IN SOME MOISTURE WHICH COULD FUEL STORMS THAT MANAGE TO HOLD
TOGETHER. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BY THE NEXT SHIFTS.
THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES TO THE EAST BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND BRINGS SOME COOLER AIR TOWARD THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.
MAX TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FROPA
BUT DID NOT TRY TO GET FANCY WITH ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN THAT
FAR OUT.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHADED POPS HIGHER ACCORDINGLY. POPS REMAIN JUST
BELOW MENTIONABLE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT AS THE CHANCES
BECOME CLEARER.
WYNNE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS BRIEFLY GUST AROUND
AIR MASS CHANGES.
WYNNE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 79 53 80 55 82 / 0 5 0 5 5
BEAVER OK 82 54 84 56 82 / 0 5 0 5 10
BOISE CITY OK 81 53 82 53 82 / 10 5 5 5 5
BORGER TX 82 53 83 55 83 / 0 5 0 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 82 53 83 54 84 / 5 5 0 5 5
CANYON TX 80 54 81 56 82 / 0 5 0 5 5
CLARENDON TX 79 56 80 58 83 / 0 5 0 5 5
DALHART TX 81 51 82 51 82 / 5 5 5 5 5
GUYMON OK 82 54 83 55 85 / 5 5 0 5 10
HEREFORD TX 79 54 80 55 82 / 0 5 0 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 81 53 83 56 82 / 0 5 0 5 5
PAMPA TX 79 53 80 56 82 / 0 5 0 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 80 56 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 80 58 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/21
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 190924
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY COMBINE TO
GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WHILE THE LOWLANDS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE MOUNTAINS. A MODERATE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SURFACE HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO ACT ON THE MOISTURE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WHILE THE LOWLANDS MAY SEE INCREASED CLOUDINESS...THE
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE TOO LIMITED FOR ANY REALISTIC CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE
TO AN INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS AND ABOVE. LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL
KEEP SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BUT NOT ENOUGH TO FORM SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 18/0012Z-19/0012Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING COULD GENERATE A FEW SHRA/TSRA
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHOWER COULD AFFECT TCS...BUT THE RISK
IS MINIMAL FOR MENTIONING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MAINLY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SACS/GILA REGIONS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND
SURFACE HEATING MAY GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY
FOR LOWLAND ZONES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT... AND FUEL AND SOIL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FROM SUMMER RAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 86 61 86 61 88 / 0 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 81 57 82 54 81 / 0 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 85 58 86 58 87 / 0 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 83 57 85 56 83 / 10 10 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 67 40 67 40 67 / 20 10 20 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 84 56 86 57 85 / 10 10 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 79 52 79 51 80 / 10 10 10 10 0
DEMING 86 56 87 57 87 / 10 10 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 87 56 88 58 87 / 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/04
000
FXUS64 KMAF 190904
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
404 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THESE AREAS...TO NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
LIKELY PREVENT MUCH RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE GROUND...SO HAVE ONLY
INSERTED ISOLATED SHOWERS THERE TONIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...ONLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN MOST
AREAS...AND LIKELY CLOSE TO MAVMOS WHICH HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING OF
LATE. MINS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SATURDAY THAN THIS
MORNING TOO.
THE SAME SCENARIO APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY AS SAID UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE PLAINS. AGAIN...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD NEAR THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED
ANY AT THIS TIME DUE TO CONTINUED DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY...WHICH PORTENDS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY
MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...
THEN TRANSLATES EASTWARD TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS...AND TUESDAY...WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN SLIM AS MOST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT
THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE BIG BEND. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE STAGE AT
PRESIDIO INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS DOWN TO 27.4 FT...BUT STILL IN
MAJOR FLOOD. THE RIVER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE DUE TO BREACHES ON THE LEVEE IN MEXICO ALONG THE
CONCHOS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED RELEASES FROM LAKE LUIS LEON
RESERVOIR IN MEXICO. CONSIDERING REPORTS OF THE LEVEE SOUTHEAST
OF PRESIDIO BEING BREACHED YESTERDAY...AND OTHER SECTIONS SHOWING
WEAKNESS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THERE UNTIL 20/00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 83 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 84 55 85 56 / 10 10 10 0
DRYDEN TX 82 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 83 58 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 77 59 78 60 / 10 10 10 0
HOBBS NM 82 54 84 56 / 10 10 10 0
MARFA TX 78 47 80 48 / 0 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 82 57 85 58 / 0 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 82 59 85 60 / 0 10 0 0
WINK TX 85 58 87 60 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
01/67
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190903
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
403 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TODAY. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS SUCH THAT PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVER THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS ON SATURDAY UNDER GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE
TO PROG MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT PROGGED TO RETURN TO
THE REGION BY THAT TIME WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW 1.5 INCHES. EARLY IN
THE WEEK AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF
THE THREE MODELS...YET HAVE GONE WITH A MORE DRY PATTERN EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS BY MIDWEEK AS A WEAK MID/UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH AN EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS PROVIDING MVFR VSBYS IN THE 09Z-14Z TIME FRAME
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR THIS
TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 67 89 67 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 86 64 89 65 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 90 68 93 70 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 89 65 91 66 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 85 70 88 70 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 90 63 91 66 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 87 66 90 68 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 85 70 86 70 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
RG/82...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190900
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL TEXAS LEFT
THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND IS NOW IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH BROUGHT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. THE FEATURE WILL
SKIRT THE RED RIVER TODAY...BUT WITH FEW CLOUDS TO SHOW FOR IT
NOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...IT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
TO NORTH TEXAS WITH MINIMAL ELEVATED MOISTURE TO LIFT.
THE TROUGH WILL SPIN A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CU FIELD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS
EVIDENCE OF THE RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD...BUT ADEQUATE
MOISTURE IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STILL CONTEND
THAT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CWA.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDING MID-WEEK TROUGH
FURTHER NORTH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN EAST TEXAS AS
RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...AND WILL KEEP
MENTION IN EASTERN ZONES FOR DAYS 6-7 (WED-THURS).
EXTENDED MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF
SEPTEMBER. WITH WESTERLIES REMAINING WELL NORTH...COOL WEATHER AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR A WHILE.
CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS KEEP NORTH TEXAS NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 66 87 67 88 / 0 0 5 5 0
WACO, TX 85 60 89 62 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
PARIS, TX 82 61 86 60 85 / 0 0 5 5 0
DENTON, TX 83 58 86 60 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
MCKINNEY, TX 85 57 85 58 86 / 0 0 5 5 0
DALLAS, TX 85 65 86 66 86 / 0 0 5 5 0
TERRELL, TX 84 61 86 61 86 / 0 0 5 5 0
CORSICANA, TX 85 62 86 62 87 / 0 0 5 5 0
TEMPLE, TX 84 60 87 62 88 / 0 0 5 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
000
FXUS64 KLUB 190837
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SHORT TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CO
THROUGH ARKANSAS WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST MOVES INLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INLAND...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF IT WILL SHIFT FROM
AZ/UT EAST TO NM/CO. THIS WILL ALLOW MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THURSDAY. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHWEST
STEERING FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STORMS THAT FIRE ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM TO MAKE IT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST FROM
THEIR SOURCE REGION THAN THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IT ALSO APPEARS
THE STEERING FLOW WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY INCREASED NORTHERLY COMPONENT
TO IT...THUS POTENTIALLY CANCELING OUT ANY INCREASED EASTWARD
PROGRESSION FROM THE INCREASED FLOW STRENGTH. ALL SAID...THERE IS A
SLIM CHANCE THAT A SHOWER/STORM COULD SNEAK INTO THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST/WEST CWA THIS EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A MENTION IN GRIDDED FORECAST ATTM.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL SEPTEMBER DAY...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY
/+1-3 DEGREES/ VERSUS THURSDAY GIVEN MINOR INCREASES IN PROGGED 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN EAST TEXAS WITH
RIDGING NOSING INTO THE WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE SHTWV RIDGE WILL
BE QUICKLY PUSHED ASIDE AS THE NEXT TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN/EVE
TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD APPROACH THE TX/NM BORDER LATE IN THE DAY BUT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND DECREASING INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK AS FLOW
ALOFT UNDERGOES A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH
FORMING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS
THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS TUE/WED. TSTM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALL ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING FRONT /COULD/ REACH THE SPLNS WED
EVE. IF SO...IT MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ON THU AS PREDICTED BY THE ECMWF. GFS STAYS DRY THOUGH
AND WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARING TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THE FRONT
EMERGES.
HAVE SLIGHTLY NUDGED HIGH/LOW TEMPS UP EACH DAY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
INCREASE IN MOS NUMBERS...BUT HAVE REMAINED ON COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE PER CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 79 51 80 52 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
TULIA 78 51 81 52 82 / 0 10 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 78 51 80 54 82 / 0 10 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 80 51 82 55 83 / 0 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 80 55 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 80 53 81 58 84 / 0 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 80 53 82 55 84 / 0 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 83 58 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 82 55 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 84 54 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/33
000
FXUS64 KSJT 190835
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
335 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMO. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVES QUICKLY EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. BEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A TRAILING FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL LEAN ON
THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE AND CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 85 60 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 86 55 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 87 56 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/15
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190824
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING..A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
WAS ANCHORING A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND DRIER WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A LITTLE MORE DYNAMIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CONTINUED COOL NIGHTS. UPPER DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY. A BELT OF WESTERLIES
PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST TOMORROW WILL SWEEP INLAND
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE U.S. PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH A
STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PATTERN FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY..BUT DUE TO THE
UPPER RIDGE..WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT..WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
LOWS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EASTERLIES OVER THE
GULF SHOULD BRING CONVERGENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COASTAL
SECTIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW DRIFTING INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES.
BY THURSDAY..CONTINUED BUILDUP OF GULF MOISTURE UNDER TROPICAL
EASTERLIES SHOULD ENHANCE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 86 64 91 66 92 / 0 0 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 58 91 61 92 / 0 0 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 62 90 66 92 / - 0 - - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 63 89 65 91 / 0 0 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
02/18
000
FXUS64 KHGX 190811
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
311 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING WHICH IS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.
READINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST INLAND
AREAS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL AFFECT RURAL AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CWA AND SWEEPING
THE BLANKET OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WE`VE HAD THE LAST FEW DAYS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. GPSMET DATA SHOWS PWS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND
AN INCH...SO WILL LIMIT MENTION OF PRECIP TO THE OFFSHORE AREAS.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD
WHICH WILL AID IN CLEAN UP EFFORTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS...OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT EACH DAY WITH
ONLY SOME THIN SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOONS. WILL
PROBABLY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
IT SHOULD STAY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED 5-10 POPS WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN RURAL AREAS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OF 87 TO 90 INLAND...MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE (60S) SO AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET HIGHER THAN THE 90 TO 93 RANGE.
TEMPS WILL STILL COOL TO THE 60S AT NIGHT MOST INLAND AREAS...BUT
WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. SFC WINDS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY BY MIDWEEK WHICH ALLOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS (PWS INCREASING TO 1.5-1.6 INCHES) WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT THESE DAYS.
ANOTHER SFC HIGH RIDGES WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS BEGINNING FRIDAY
WHICH WILL DRY THINGS OUT AGAIN...AND RESULT IN LOWER
HUMIDITIES/SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
35
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PREVAILING
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER REGION EXCEPT FOR NW ZONES INCLUDING CLL TAF
SITE WHERE AIR MASS STARTING TO BECOME SOMEWHAT DRIER AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM REGION. TEMPERATURES GETTING
CLOSER TO DEWPOINTS NORTHERN HALF OF REGION AND UTS HAS REPORTED
LIGHT FOG (MVFR) EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT COAST. 37
&&
.MARINE...
COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST
LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE ENE. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL FOR THE
MOST PART PREVAIL. NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4
FEET FARTHER OFFSHORE REGION OF MARINE CWFA. 37
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 62 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 65 89 67 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 71 85 72 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION/MARINE...37
000
FXUS64 KBRO 190716
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
218 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS, CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY
EVENINGS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY TODAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY020 DATA REPORTS AN ENE WIND AROUND 10 KTS
WITH SWELLS AROUND 4 FT. GWW GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ENE-NE SURFACE FLOW AS BROAD SURFACE TROFFING PREVAILS OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND THE WESTERN CARIB SEA. SWELLS WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW
THROUGHOUT THIS CURRENT CWF PERIOD AND THIS IS PRETTY WELL REFLECTED
IN THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST WORDING. THE PGF SHOWN IN THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS TIGHTENS UP SOME LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN
HIGHER SEAS ON AND AFTER THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SCT HIGH LEVEL CLDS ADVECTING OVER
THE LOWER RGV. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. DAYTIME HEATING LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SOME LOWER CEILINGS DUE TO SC/CU FORMATION. WILL REFLECT
THIS WITH SOME TEMPO REMARKS LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
PUBLIC/GRIDS...........63
AVIATION/MARINE/MESO...60
000
FXUS64 KMAF 190520
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1220 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
NW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACRS CWFA WITH TROF AXIS POSITIONED E.
NW MID LEVEL FLOW SEEMS PRETTY DRY AND WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH SFC DWPNTS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL AGAIN BE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
DIURNAL RANGES NEARING 25 DEGREES. INTO FRI NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND GFS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE CONVERGENT SE FLOW
INTO E-NE NM FOR SHRA/TSRA. MODEL QPF/S KEEP PRECIP N-NW OF CWFA
BUT 7H-5H LR/S STILL NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS WITH LIMITED SFC MSTR KEEPS
85H BASED LI/S POSITIVE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FCST. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN SOME MCLOUDY CONDITIONS THRU MIDNIGHT ACRS
NW. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EDGE EWD SAT WHICH WOULD TEND CUT
OFF PRECIP FROM GENERATION SOURCE OF NM MTNS AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRY FCST. NAM 85H TEMPS NEAR 22C OVER MAF SAT WHICH YIELDS
TEMPS LOWER TO UPPER 80S FRI/SAT. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD SUN THUS MAINTAINING DRY FCST AND 5H HGHTS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WILL TREND TEMPS UP SOME. 5H RIDGE AXIS MOVES E SUN WHICH
WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO HAVE MORE OF A WLY COMPONENT WHICH
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENHANCE LEE TROF SOME AND ASSOCD 85H THERMAL
RIDGE. THESE FEATURES LEE TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE MORE
PROMINENT MON AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO INTER MTN W SLOWLY
INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW ACRS SE NM/W TX. GFS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF BUT IN GENERAL TUE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MON BUT WARMER WITH MORE WIND. ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THRU W TX/SE NM LATE WED OR THUR AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
TROF MOVES E. PRE/POST FRONTAL PRECIP ISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING DEGREE OF MSTR RETURN AND DEPTH OF COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THRU BIG BEND. AS OF LATE MORNING THE STAGE AT PRESIDIO
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS JUST BELOW 28 FT. LEVELS CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO BREACHES ON THE LEVEE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE CONCHOS. ALSO IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT THE LEVEE
HAS BEEN BREACHED SE OF PRESIDIO AND OTHER SECTIONS ARE SHOWING
WEAKNESS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
99
000
FXUS64 KAMA 190454 AAC
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1154 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...INCREASING WITH DIURNAL MIXING
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
UPDATE...
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN
THE FIRST PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.
CLK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
UPDATE...
UPPER SPEED MAX PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS HAS
RESULTED IN SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...AND
CAN MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS...INSERTED ISOLD WORDING
IN ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. UPDATED
PUBLIC PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.
CLK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
TSTMS DVLPG IN PARTS OF ERN AND NERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROF
AND MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF PLUS ATTENDANT SPEED MAX.
DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES ACROSS FAR
NWRN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING IN CASE ONE OR TWO MOVE INTO THAT AREA.
NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS PSBLTY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THAT IS MAINLY
DRY WX DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME TSTMS
TO DVLP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR W...WHICH MAY DRIFT CLOSE TO OUR
FAR NWRN ZNS EITHER DAY. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS...MAINLY DURG AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AGAIN...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN RAISE THEM A BIT MORE IF
NECESSARY.
IT APPEARS THE SRN TAIL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIKELY GRAZE
NRN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RETAINED JUST
BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS SUN AFTN AND SUN NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW TO HANDLE WRN US TROF
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS OVERALL SLOWEST AND STRONGEST
WHILE ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER IN GENERAL. BECAUSE OF THESE
DISCREPANCIES...REATINED PREVIOUS FCST STRATEGY OF NOT MENTIONING
PRECIP AT THIS TIME PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 25 MPH WILL PRECLUDE MAJOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/05
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190451
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1151 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS 10-12K FEET WILL THIN OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...PATCHY SPRINKLES EXITING EAST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS TO
TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT...SO THINNING SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATE. NOT
TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE UPDATE OR GRIDS THIS EVENING...
JUST SOME MINOR WIND AND DEW POINT ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 87 66 90 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 61 86 63 90 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 65 91 67 94 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 62 89 65 91 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 68 85 69 89 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 60 90 63 92 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 63 88 65 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 69 84 69 88 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190438 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1138 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR AT BOTH KDFW AND KACT TRACONS. STILL FEEL WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT THEN RETURN EASTERLY ON FRIDAY.
HAVE HELD SPEEDS DOWN IN THE 3-7KT RANGE. 75
&&
.UPDATE...
935 PM CDT.
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WIND.
THE ONLY CHANGES NECESSARY WILL BE SOME MINOR HOURLY GRID UPDATES
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. .79...
&&
.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT.
NO AVIATION CONCERN FOR KDFW OR KACT TRACONS. SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST AND TAKE THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS FIELD TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH GENERALLY SKC TO
SCT AOA 15000FT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS MOST OF TONIGHT...
BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY 10Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TURNS A LITTLE
IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY GULF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE RIDGE
TO NORTH DRIFT. WINDS WILL COME BACK NORTHEASTERLY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
NOT SURE ABOUT 5-6SM BR OR HZ AROUND DAYBREAK AND AFTERWARD. FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAF. 75
&&
.DISCUSSION...
358 PM CDT.
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...
AND TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH FORECASTED HIGHS. ADJUSTED
FORECASTED HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOWN A FEW DEGREES. OVERALL...A
DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN TX TOMORROW AS A
WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE CLEARING ON
SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE NORTH TEXAS WILL MISS ANY
CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH...IT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH.
RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT
IT WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVES IN. INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON DAYS 6 AND 7.
GFS AND NGM WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
ONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEN DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO RAIN
AND CLOUD COVERAGE NEXT WEEK. 77/TLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 60 85 63 87 64 / 5 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 59 87 61 89 62 / 5 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 60 84 60 83 60 / 5 10 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 57 86 59 85 60 / 5 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 56 85 58 85 61 / 5 10 5 10 5
DALLAS, TX 62 85 63 86 64 / 5 10 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 59 86 61 84 61 / 5 10 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 85 62 85 63 / 5 10 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 86 61 87 61 / 5 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/77
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190437
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1137 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS TAF CYCLE. PACIFIC MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. CU BASES WILL BE AROUND 5K FT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA LOW THAT WAS TO THE WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LAST NIGHT HAS DRIFTED TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF TEXAS TONIGHT. THE MOMENTUM OF THE WEAK
WESTERLIES WILL SLOWLY TAKE THIS LOW FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND ON
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THIS TYPE OF TREND...SLOWLY DECREASED THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUED THIS TREND THRU FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK
700 TO 300 HPA TROF DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST...AND THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE AREA AS A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHT FIELD...A 500 HPA RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A PROGRESSIVE 500 HPA
TROF COMES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TO THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND STAY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL SIGNAL A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS. AS TROF FROM
THE ROCKIES MAKES IT TO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...THE HEIGHT
FIELD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN A TREND
THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS THEN SHOW A WEAK RIDGE FORMING
OVER THE AREA THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND OF SEP. 27 AND 28.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
THE 700MB LOW, WHICH HAS GENERATED THE SPRINKLES AND HIGH BASED
CLOUDS, WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT THEN LIFTS NORTH
FRIDAY LEAVING A WEAK TROF AXIS ALONG I-35 THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA WEST OF I-35 LATE TONIGHT THEN BEGIN
THINNING FRIDAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
NEAR THE PANHANDLE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WILL KICK IN AND SKIES WITH VARY BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THANKS TO THE WAVE ON
THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF.
UPPER HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.. THIS EFFECTIVELY KEEPS
RIDGING FIXED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE STATE OF TEXAS AND
OUR WINDS MOSTLY NORTHEAST AND EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - UPPER HEIGHTS DROP AS THE BROAD LONG WAVE
TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ELONGATES
N/S, NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXPECTED TO RISE TO OPTIMUM 1.3", INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO THE MEAN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 87 60 90 65 / - 0 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 90 58 90 61 / - 0 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 88 61 89 65 / 0 - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 88 61 89 65 / 0 0 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/13
000
FXUS64 KSJT 190407
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1107 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 58 85 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 53 86 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 54 87 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KAMA 190322 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1022 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
MAIN REASON FOR UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN
THE FIRST PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
.UPDATE...
UPPER SPEED MAX PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS HAS
RESULTED IN SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...AND
CAN MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS...INSERTED ISOLD WORDING
IN ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. UPDATED
PUBLIC PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.
CLK
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY IMPACT KDHT
BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED CIRRUS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
SFJ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
TSTMS DVLPG IN PARTS OF ERN AND NERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROF
AND MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF PLUS ATTENDANT SPEED MAX.
DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES ACROSS FAR
NWRN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING IN CASE ONE OR TWO MOVE INTO THAT AREA.
NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS PSBLTY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THAT IS MAINLY
DRY WX DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME TSTMS
TO DVLP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR W...WHICH MAY DRIFT CLOSE TO OUR
FAR NWRN ZNS EITHER DAY. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS...MAINLY DURG AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AGAIN...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN RAISE THEM A BIT MORE IF
NECESSARY.
IT APPEARS THE SRN TAIL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIKELY GRAZE
NRN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RETAINED JUST
BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS SUN AFTN AND SUN NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW TO HANDLE WRN US TROF
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS OVERALL SLOWEST AND STRONGEST
WHILE ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER IN GENERAL. BECAUSE OF THESE
DISCREPANCIES...REATINED PREVIOUS FCST STRATEGY OF NOT MENTIONING
PRECIP AT THIS TIME PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 25 MPH WILL PRECLUDE MAJOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/05
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190240 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
935 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT
WITH A LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WIND.
THE ONLY CHANGES NECESSARY WILL BE SOME MINOR HOURLY GRID UPDATES
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
.79...
&&
.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT.
NO AVIATION CONCERN FOR KDFW OR KACT TRACONS. SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST AND TAKE THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS FIELD TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH GENERALLY SKC TO
SCT AOA 15000FT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS MOST OF
TONIGHT...BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY 10Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TURNS
A LITTLE IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY GULF LOW PRESSURE AND
SURFACE RIDGE TO NORTH DRIFT. WINDS WILL COME BACK NORTHEASTERLY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY.
NOT SURE ABOUT 5-6SM BR OR HZ AROUND DAYBREAK AND AFTERWARD. FOR
NOW WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAF. 75
&&
.DISCUSSION...
358 PM CDT.
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH FORECASTED HIGHS.
ADJUSTED FORECASTED HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
OVERALL...A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN
TX TOMORROW AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
CLEARING ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE NORTH
TEXAS WILL MISS ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH...IT WILL STAY TO THE
NORTH.
RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN. INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON DAYS 6 AND 7.
GFS AND NGM WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEN DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
77/TLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 60 85 63 87 64 / 5 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 59 87 61 89 62 / 5 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 60 84 60 83 60 / 5 10 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 57 86 59 85 60 / 5 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 56 85 58 85 61 / 5 10 5 10 5
DALLAS, TX 62 85 63 86 64 / 5 10 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 59 86 61 84 61 / 5 10 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 85 62 85 63 / 5 10 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 86 61 87 61 / 5 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/77
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190231
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
931 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK 700 TO 300 HPA LOW THAT WAS TO THE WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LAST NIGHT HAS DRIFTED TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF TEXAS TONIGHT. THE MOMENTUM OF THE WEAK
WESTERLIES WILL SLOWLY TAKE THIS LOW FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND ON
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THIS TYPE OF TREND...SLOWLY DECREASED THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUED THIS TREND THRU FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK
700 TO 300 HPA TROF DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST...AND THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE AREA AS A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHT FIELD...A 500 HPA RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A PROGRESSIVE 500 HPA
TROF COMES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TO THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND STAY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL SIGNAL A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS. AS TROF FROM
THE ROCKIES MAKES IT TO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...THE HEIGHT
FIELD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN A TREND
THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS THEN SHOW A WEAK RIDGE FORMING
OVER THE AREA THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND OF SEP. 27 AND 28.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS TAF CYCLE. PACIFIC MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. CU BASES WILL BE AROUND 5K FT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
THE 700MB LOW, WHICH HAS GENERATED THE SPRINKLES AND HIGH BASED
CLOUDS, WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT THEN LIFTS NORTH
FRIDAY LEAVING A WEAK TROF AXIS ALONG I-35 THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA WEST OF I-35 LATE TONIGHT THEN BEGIN
THINNING FRIDAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
NEAR THE PANHANDLE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WILL KICK IN AND SKIES WITH VARY BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THANKS TO THE WAVE ON
THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF.
UPPER HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.. THIS EFFECTIVELY KEEPS
RIDGING FIXED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE STATE OF TEXAS AND
OUR WINDS MOSTLY NORTHEAST AND EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - UPPER HEIGHTS DROP AS THE BROAD LONG WAVE
TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ELONGATES
N/S, NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXPECTED TO RISE TO OPTIMUM 1.3", INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO THE MEAN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 59 87 60 90 / 30 - 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 56 90 58 90 / 30 - 0 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 58 88 61 89 / 10 0 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 60 88 61 89 / 30 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/13/SBS/06/01
000
FXUS64 KHGX 190212
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
912 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE "PCPN" HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDIT-
IONAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE PERSIST W/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING GRIDS AS THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS THE MID/
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MANAGED TO STAY AT
OR BELOW 80 DEGREES DUE MAINLY TO THE CLOUD COVER. SOME VIRGA OR
LIGHT RAIN MAY BE ASSISTING IN KEEPING THESE TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING INTO THE 80S. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE CARRIED 10% POPS AND MENTIONED ISOLATED SPRINKLES GOING INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES AFTER THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE GOING TO DEPEND ON ANY SURFACE TROUGH OR SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WILL CALL FOR
20% POPS OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL GO WITH THE GHOST 10% POPS
INLAND WITH THE THOUGHT THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT DOES OCCUR WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST CAN THEN BE EXPECTED UNTIL
SOME TIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. STATES. FOR NOW...WILL GO
NO HIGHER THAN 20% POPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GRADUAL WARMING
TREND STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING
ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. FALL OFFICIALLY STARTS ON
MONDAY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 86 65 87 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 86 66 87 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 82 71 83 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190207
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
907 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...PATCHY SPRINKLES EXITING EAST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS TO
TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT...SO THINNING SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATE. NOT
TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE UPDATE OR GRIDS THIS EVENING...
JUST SOME MINOR WIND AND DEW POINT ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
AVIATION...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY. VFR WILL CONTINUE AT TAF SITES WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM
WHICH PROG PERIODS OF MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AT LEAST
THROUGH FRI. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR OVR LAND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
PERSIST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN. FURTHER...THE GFS PROGS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MIXING RATIO VALUES AT 300K ISENTROPIC LEVEL
DRG THE PERIOD. CLOUDS NOTWITHSTANDING...ANTICIPATE MIN TEMPS FRI
SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE VALUES...COOLER THAN THE NAM DETERMINISTIC
SOLN.
AVIATION...OWING IN PART TO THE FOREGOING MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WL RETAIN CLOUDS DRG THE PERIOD...YET PREDOMINATELY
IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
MARINE...GFS PROGS PERSISTENT GENERALLY NORTH SFC FLOW OVR THE
WATERS. YET THE TAMUCC/DNR ANN MODEL FOR SELECTED TCOON SITES FCST
MAX WATER LEVELS 1.5 MSL OR BELOW. THUS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW/COASTAL FLOODING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND
4FT. THE GFS PROGS THE SFC TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVR THE NWRN GULF...
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI TO PSBLY AFFECT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THUS...WL RETAIN THE LOW POPS THERE FOR FRI.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVER THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF TEXAS MAINTAINING A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP CAUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
ALONG THE COASTAL BEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THIS TIME.
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER
WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 87 66 90 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 61 86 63 90 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 65 91 67 94 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 62 89 65 91 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 68 85 69 89 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 60 90 63 92 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 63 88 65 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 69 84 69 88 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KBRO 190113
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS STILL DOMINATING THE
WEATHER PATTERN AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND
COULD CAUSE AN ISOLATED SHOWER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS ONCE AGAIN.
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. NO UPDATES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...AT 7PM BUOY020 REPORTED NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10KTS AND SEAS
3 FEET. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS...TRANQUIL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 3
FEET OR LESS THROUGHOUT. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM LAST WEEKS FRONT NOW IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF RETURNS NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...ONLY CLOUDS THIS EVENING ARE CI AROUND 20KFT...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. DAYTIME CU EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
PUBLIC/GRIDS...65
AVIATION/MARINE/MESO...64
000
FXUS64 KBRO 190112
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008
.DISCUSSION...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS STILL DOMINATING THE
WEATHER PATTERN AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND
COULD CAUSE AN ISOLATED SHOWER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS ONCE AGAIN.
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. NO UPDATES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...AT 7PM BUOY020 REPORTED NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10KTS AND SEAS
3 FEET. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS...TRANQUIL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 3
FEET OR LESS THROUGHOUT. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM LAST WEEKS FRONT NOW IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF RETURNS NORTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...ONLY CLOUDS THIS EVENING ARE CI AROUND 20KFT...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. DAYTIME CU EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
PUBLIC/GRIDS...65
AVIATION/MARINE/MESO...64
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190059
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
759 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
&&
.AVIATION...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY. VFR WILL CONTINUE AT TAF SITES WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM
WHICH PROG PERIODS OF MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AT LEAST
THROUGH FRI. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR OVR LAND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
PERSIST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN. FURTHER...THE GFS PROGS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MIXING RATIO VALUES AT 300K ISENTROPIC LEVEL
DRG THE PERIOD. CLOUDS NOTWITHSTANDING...ANTICIPATE MIN TEMPS FRI
SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE VALUES...COOLER THAN THE NAM DETERMINISTIC
SOLN.
AVIATION...OWING IN PART TO THE FOREGOING MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WL RETAIN CLOUDS DRG THE PERIOD...YET PREDOMINATELY
IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
MARINE...GFS PROGS PERSISTENT GENERALLY NORTH SFC FLOW OVR THE
WATERS. YET THE TAMUCC/DNR ANN MODEL FOR SELECTED TCOON SITES FCST
MAX WATER LEVELS 1.5 MSL OR BELOW. THUS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW/COASTAL FLOODING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND
4FT. THE GFS PROGS THE SFC TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVR THE NWRN GULF...
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI TO PSBLY AFFECT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THUS...WL RETAIN THE LOW POPS THERE FOR FRI.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVER THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF TEXAS MAINTAINING A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP CAUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
ALONG THE COASTAL BEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THIS TIME.
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER
WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 87 66 90 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 61 86 63 90 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 66 91 67 94 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 62 89 65 91 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 68 85 69 89 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 60 90 63 92 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 63 88 65 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 69 84 69 88 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AT/15...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KEWX 182324
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
624 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS TAF CYCLE. PACIFIC MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. CU BASES WILL BE AROUND 5K FT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
THE 700MB LOW, WHICH HAS GENERATED THE SPRINKLES AND HIGH BASED
CLOUDS, WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT THEN LIFTS NORTH
FRIDAY LEAVING A WEAK TROF AXIS ALONG I-35 THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA WEST OF I-35 LATE TONIGHT THEN BEGIN
THINNING FRIDAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
NEAR THE PANHANDLE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WILL KICK IN AND SKIES WITH VARY BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THANKS TO THE WAVE ON
THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF.
UPPER HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.. THIS EFFECTIVELY KEEPS
RIDGING FIXED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE STATE OF TEXAS AND
OUR WINDS MOSTLY NORTHEAST AND EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - UPPER HEIGHTS DROP AS THE BROAD LONG WAVE
TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ELONGATES
N/S, NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXPECTED TO RISE TO OPTIMUM 1.3", INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO THE MEAN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 87 64 90 65 / - 0 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 90 59 90 61 / - 0 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 88 62 89 65 / 0 - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/13
000
FXUS64 KMAF 182322
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR 10 MPH OR
LESS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
NW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACRS CWFA WITH TROF AXIS POSITIONED E.
NW MID LEVEL FLOW SEEMS PRETTY DRY AND WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH SFC DWPNTS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL AGAIN BE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
DIURNAL RANGES NEARING 25 DEGREES. INTO FRI NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND GFS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE CONVERGENT SE FLOW
INTO E-NE NM FOR SHRA/TSRA. MODEL QPF/S KEEP PRECIP N-NW OF CWFA
BUT 7H-5H LR/S STILL NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS WITH LIMITED SFC MSTR KEEPS
85H BASED LI/S POSITIVE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FCST. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN SOME MCLOUDY CONDITIONS THRU MIDNIGHT ACRS
NW. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EDGE EWD SAT WHICH WOULD TEND CUT
OFF PRECIP FROM GENERATION SOURCE OF NM MTNS AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRY FCST. NAM 85H TEMPS NEAR 22C OVER MAF SAT WHICH YIELDS
TEMPS LOWER TO UPPER 80S FRI/SAT. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD SUN THUS MAINTAINING DRY FCST AND 5H HGHTS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WILL TREND TEMPS UP SOME. 5H RIDGE AXIS MOVES E SUN WHICH
WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO HAVE MORE OF A WLY COMPONENT WHICH
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENHANCE LEE TROF SOME AND ASSOCD 85H THERMAL
RIDGE. THESE FEATURES LEE TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE MORE
PROMINENT MON AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO INTER MTN W SLOWLY
INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW ACRS SE NM/W TX. GFS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF BUT IN GENERAL TUE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MON BUT WARMER WITH MORE WIND. ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THRU W TX/SE NM LATE WED OR THUR AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
TROF MOVES E. PRE/POST FRONTAL PRECIP ISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING DEGREE OF MSTR RETURN AND DEPTH OF COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THRU BIG BEND. AS OF LATE MORNING THE STAGE AT PRESIDIO
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS JUST BELOW 28 FT. LEVELS CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO BREACHES ON THE LEVEE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE CONCHOS. ALSO IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT THE LEVEE
HAS BEEN BREACHED SE OF PRESIDIO AND OTHER SECTIONS ARE SHOWING
WEAKNESS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 182300 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
600 PM CDT.
NO AVIATION CONCERN FOR KDFW OR KACT TRACONS. SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST AND TAKE THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS FIELD TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH GENERALLY SKC TO
SCT AOA 15000FT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS MOST OF
TONIGHT...BUT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY 10Z AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TURNS
A LITTLE IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY GULF LOW PRESSURE AND
SURFACE RIDGE TO NORTH DRIFT. WINDS WILL COME BACK NORTHEASTERLY BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY.
NOT SURE ABOUT 5-6SM BR OR HZ AROUND DAYBREAK AND AFTERWARD. FOR
NOW WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAF. 75
&&
.DISCUSSION...
358 PM CDT.
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH FORECASTED HIGHS.
ADJUSTED FORECASTED HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
OVERALL...A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN
TX TOMORROW AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
CLEARING ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE NORTH
TEXAS WILL MISS ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH...IT WILL STAY TO THE
NORTH.
RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN. INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON DAYS 6 AND 7.
GFS AND NGM WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEN DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
77/TLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 60 85 63 87 64 / 5 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 59 87 61 89 62 / 5 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 60 84 60 83 60 / 5 10 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 57 86 59 85 60 / 5 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 56 85 58 85 61 / 5 10 5 10 5
DALLAS, TX 62 85 63 86 64 / 5 10 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 59 86 61 84 61 / 5 10 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 85 62 85 63 / 5 10 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 86 61 87 61 / 5 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/77
000
FXUS64 KSJT 182250
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
550 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 58 85 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 53 86 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 54 87 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KAMA 182248 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
548 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
UPPER SPEED MAX PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS HAS
RESULTED IN SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD...AND
CAN MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS...INSERTED ISOLD WORDING
IN ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. UPDATED
PUBLIC PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.
CLK
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY IMPACT KDHT
BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED CIRRUS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
SFJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
TSTMS DVLPG IN PARTS OF ERN AND NERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROF
AND MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF PLUS ATTENDANT SPEED MAX.
DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES ACROSS FAR
NWRN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING IN CASE ONE OR TWO MOVE INTO THAT AREA.
NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS PSBLTY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THAT IS MAINLY
DRY WX DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME TSTMS
TO DVLP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR W...WHICH MAY DRIFT CLOSE TO OUR
FAR NWRN ZNS EITHER DAY. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS...MAINLY DURG AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AGAIN...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN RAISE THEM A BIT MORE IF
NECESSARY.
IT APPEARS THE SRN TAIL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIKELY GRAZE
NRN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RETAINED JUST
BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS SUN AFTN AND SUN NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW TO HANDLE WRN US TROF
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS OVERALL SLOWEST AND STRONGEST
WHILE ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER IN GENERAL. BECAUSE OF THESE
DISCREPANCIES...REATINED PREVIOUS FCST STRATEGY OF NOT MENTIONING
PRECIP AT THIS TIME PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 25 MPH WILL PRECLUDE MAJOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/05/15
000
FXUS64 KFWD 182058
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH FORECASTED HIGHS.
ADJUSTED FORECASTED HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
OVERALL...A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN
TX TOMORROW AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
CLEARING ON SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE NORTH
TEXAS WILL MISS ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH...IT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH.
RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN. INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON DAYS 6 AND 7.
GFS AND NGM WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTINUED SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEN DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
77/TLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 60 85 63 87 64 / 5 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 59 87 61 89 62 / 5 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 60 84 60 83 60 / 5 10 5 10 5
DENTON, TX 57 86 59 85 60 / 5 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 56 85 58 85 61 / 5 10 5 10 5
DALLAS, TX 62 85 63 86 64 / 5 10 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 59 86 61 84 61 / 5 10 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 85 62 85 63 / 5 10 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 86 61 87 61 / 5 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/77
000
FXUS64 KAMA 182049
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
TSTMS DVLPG IN PARTS OF ERN AND NERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROF
AND MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF PLUS ATTENDANT SPEED MAX.
DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES ACROSS FAR
NWRN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING IN CASE ONE OR TWO MOVE INTO THAT AREA.
NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS PSBLTY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THAT IS MAINLY
DRY WX DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME TSTMS
TO DVLP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR W...WHICH MAY DRIFT CLOSE TO OUR
FAR NWRN ZNS EITHER DAY. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS...MAINLY DURG AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AGAIN...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN RAISE THEM A BIT MORE IF
NECESSARY.
IT APPEARS THE SRN TAIL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIKELY GRAZE
NRN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RETAINED JUST
BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS SUN AFTN AND SUN NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW TO HANDLE WRN US TROF
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS OVERALL SLOWEST AND STRONGEST
WHILE ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER IN GENERAL. BECAUSE OF THESE
DISCREPANCIES...REATINED PREVIOUS FCST STRATEGY OF NOT MENTIONING
PRECIP AT THIS TIME PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANDRADE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 25 MPH WILL PRECLUDE MAJOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
ANDRADE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 52 80 54 82 54 / 5 0 5 0 5
BEAVER OK 53 83 54 84 56 / 5 0 5 0 5
BOISE CITY OK 50 81 50 82 53 / 10 10 5 5 5
BORGER TX 56 82 58 84 58 / 5 0 5 0 5
BOYS RANCH TX 51 82 52 83 53 / 5 5 5 0 5
CANYON TX 51 80 53 82 53 / 5 0 5 0 5
CLARENDON TX 53 82 55 84 56 / 5 0 5 0 5
DALHART TX 50 81 50 82 53 / 5 5 5 5 5
GUYMON OK 53 84 54 84 56 / 5 5 5 0 5
HEREFORD TX 50 80 51 82 52 / 5 0 5 0 5
LIPSCOMB TX 53 82 54 83 56 / 5 0 5 0 5
PAMPA TX 53 81 55 83 57 / 5 0 5 0 5
SHAMROCK TX 53 82 55 84 57 / 5 0 0 0 5
WELLINGTON TX 54 83 55 84 58 / 5 0 0 0 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 182049
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM
WHICH PROG PERIODS OF MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AT LEAST
THROUGH FRI. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR OVR LAND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
PERSIST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN. FURTHER...THE GFS PROGS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MIXING RATIO VALUES AT 300K ISENTROPIC LEVEL
DRG THE PERIOD. CLOUDS NOTWITHSTANDING...ANTICIPATE MIN TEMPS FRI
SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE VALUES...COOLER THAN THE NAM DETERMINISTIC
SOLN.
&&
.AVIATION...OWING IN PART TO THE FOREGOING MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WL RETAIN CLOUDS DRG THE PERIOD...YET PREDOMINATELY
IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
&&
.MARINE...GFS PROGS PERSISTENT GENERALLY NORTH SFC FLOW OVR THE
WATERS. YET THE TAMUCC/DNR ANN MODEL FOR SELECTED TCOON SITES FCST
MAX WATER LEVELS 1.5 MSL OR BELOW. THUS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW/COASTAL FLOODING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND
4FT. THE GFS PROGS THE SFC TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVR THE NWRN GULF...
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI TO PSBLY AFFECT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THUS...WL RETAIN THE LOW POPS THERE FOR FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVER THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF TEXAS MAINTAINING A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP CAUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
ALONG THE COASTAL BEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THIS TIME.
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER
WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 87 66 90 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 61 86 63 90 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 66 91 67 94 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 62 89 65 91 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 68 85 69 89 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 60 90 63 92 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 63 88 65 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 69 84 69 88 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
JR/19...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KAMA 182049
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
TSTMS DVLPG IN PARTS OF ERN AND NERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROF
AND MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF PLUS ATTENDANT SPEED MAX.
DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES ACROSS FAR
NWRN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING IN CASE ONE OR TWO MOVE INTO THAT AREA.
NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS PSBLTY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THAT IS MAINLY
DRY WX DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME TSTMS
TO DVLP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR W...WHICH MAY DRIFT CLOSE TO OUR
FAR NWRN ZNS EITHER DAY. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES IN THAT AREA BOTH DAYS...MAINLY DURG AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AGAIN...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN RAISE THEM A BIT MORE IF
NECESSARY.
IT APPEARS THE SRN TAIL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIKELY GRAZE
NRN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RETAINED JUST
BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS SUN AFTN AND SUN NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW TO HANDLE WRN US TROF
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS OVERALL SLOWEST AND STRONGEST
WHILE ECMWF IS FASTER AND WEAKER IN GENERAL. BECAUSE OF THESE
DISCREPANCIES...REATINED PREVIOUS FCST STRATEGY OF NOT MENTIONING
PRECIP AT THIS TIME PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
ANDRADE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 25 MPH WILL PRECLUDE MAJOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
ANDRADE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 52 80 54 82 54 / 5 0 5 0 5
BEAVER OK 53 83 54 84 56 / 5 0 5 0 5
BOISE CITY OK 50 81 50 82 53 / 10 10 5 5 5
BORGER TX 56 82 58 84 58 / 5 0 5 0 5
BOYS RANCH TX 51 82 52 83 53 / 5 5 5 0 5
CANYON TX 51 80 53 82 53 / 5 0 5 0 5
CLARENDON TX 53 82 55 84 56 / 5 0 5 0 5
DALHART TX 50 81 50 82 53 / 5 5 5 5 5
GUYMON OK 53 84 54 84 56 / 5 5 5 0 5
HEREFORD TX 50 80 51 82 52 / 5 0 5 0 5
LIPSCOMB TX 53 82 54 83 56 / 5 0 5 0 5
PAMPA TX 53 81 55 83 57 / 5 0 5 0 5
SHAMROCK TX 53 82 55 84 57 / 5 0 0 0 5
WELLINGTON TX 54 83 55 84 58 / 5 0 0 0 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 182049
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM
WHICH PROG PERIODS OF MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AT LEAST
THROUGH FRI. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR OVR LAND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
PERSIST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN. FURTHER...THE GFS PROGS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MIXING RATIO VALUES AT 300K ISENTROPIC LEVEL
DRG THE PERIOD. CLOUDS NOTWITHSTANDING...ANTICIPATE MIN TEMPS FRI
SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE VALUES...COOLER THAN THE NAM DETERMINISTIC
SOLN.
&&
.AVIATION...OWING IN PART TO THE FOREGOING MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WL RETAIN CLOUDS DRG THE PERIOD...YET PREDOMINATELY
IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
&&
.MARINE...GFS PROGS PERSISTENT GENERALLY NORTH SFC FLOW OVR THE
WATERS. YET THE TAMUCC/DNR ANN MODEL FOR SELECTED TCOON SITES FCST
MAX WATER LEVELS 1.5 MSL OR BELOW. THUS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW/COASTAL FLOODING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND
4FT. THE GFS PROGS THE SFC TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVR THE NWRN GULF...
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI TO PSBLY AFFECT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THUS...WL RETAIN THE LOW POPS THERE FOR FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVER THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF TEXAS MAINTAINING A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP CAUSING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
ALONG THE COASTAL BEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THIS TIME.
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND ANOTHER
WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 87 66 90 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 61 86 63 90 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 66 91 67 94 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 62 89 65 91 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 68 85 69 89 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 60 90 63 92 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 63 88 65 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 69 84 69 88 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
JR/19...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182041
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
241 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATE BIT OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRAY SHOWER MAY MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT. TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
AREAS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE FOUR-CORNER STATES. OVER OUR
REGION SOME MODERATE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. ELEVATED TERRAIN
SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND IN FACT AT 20Z
THERE ARE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE GILA AND SACS. THE LOWLANDS...
HAVING DRIER SURFACE LAYERS ARE CAPPED BY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
THUS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY WORK OFF
THE GILA AND BLACKS INTO W SIERRA...N DONA ANA...AND N LUNA BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. ALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIE
OFF QUICKLY AFTER HEATING ENDS AS THERE ARE NO STRONG IMPULSES IN
THE FLOW.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT FROM
THE WEST. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS THIS SHOULD MOVE OVER OUR
CWFA. HOWEVER FOR FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. LIKE TODAY
THIS COULD MEAN ISOLATED...MAINLY MOUNTAIN...SHOWERS IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HOURS. TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD WITH THE RIDGE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL
AREAS. TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. LOW AND MID FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD ADD A BIT OF MOISTURE
TO OUR ATMOSPHERE. PASSING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL WORK TO GENERATE
INSTABILITY AND THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL PASS NORTH.
BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH IN WED NIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...ALL OTHER ZONES SHOULD BE
DRY. ALSO WILL BE A BIT COOLER THU WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 18/0000Z-19/0000Z
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BUT COULD STILL SEE SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SHOWER
COULD AFFECT TCS BEFORE DARK...BUT THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS...AND THE IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL HOLD ON TO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SACS/GILA THROUGH
FRIDAY... BUT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY FOR ALL ZONES. HOWEVER... WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT... AND FUEL AND SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FROM SUMMER
RAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 59 85 61 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 55 80 57 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 56 84 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 55 82 57 85 58 / 0 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 66 40 67 42 / 10 20 10 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 54 83 56 86 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 50 78 52 79 50 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEMING 54 85 56 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 86 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/25 BIRD/HARDIMAN
000
FXUS64 KLUB 182022
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN
ERN NM. THE ONLY THING THIS HAS DONE FOR OUR WEATHER IS TO
INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND START TO SWING THE WIND TO
A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
LIGHT. WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND ABOUT
THE SAME AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS LAST NIGHT...HAVE GONE 2-3
DEGREES UNDER GUIDANCE FOR MINS TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER PLEASANT
DAY WILL WILL BE IN STORE FOR TOMORROW AND A DRY FORECAST REMAINS
IN PLACE.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. FLOW ALOFT STARTS
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH TRIES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A
LEE SURFACE TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER ERN NM. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 51 79 52 82 52 / 0 0 10 10 0
TULIA 49 80 50 81 52 / 0 0 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 52 81 53 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 51 81 52 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 53 81 54 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 51 81 52 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 50 82 51 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 55 83 56 84 57 / 0 0 10 0 0
SPUR 54 83 55 84 57 / 0 0 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 52 85 53 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/14
000
FXUS64 KHGX 182015
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MANAGED TO STAY AT OR BELOW
80 DEGREES DUE MAINLY TO THE CLOUD COVER. SOME VIRGA OR LIGHT RAIN MAY
BE ASSISTING IN KEEPING THESE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING INTO THE 80S.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CARRIED 10% POPS AND MENTIONED
ISOLATED SPRINKLES GOING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES
AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE ARE GOING TO DEPEND ON ANY SURFACE TROUGH OR
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OUT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WILL CALL
FOR 20% POPS OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. WILL GO WITH THE GHOST 10% POPS INLAND
WITH THE THOUGHT THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT DOES OCCUR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST CAN THEN BE EXPECTED UNTIL SOME TIME AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. STATES. FOR NOW...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20% POPS STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO TIMING AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BEGINNING
TOMORROW AND CONTINUING ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. FALL OFFICIALLY
STARTS ON MONDAY. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES AT MULTIPLE LEVELS ACROSS SE TX AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE
FOR THE MAIN TERMINALS. CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OUT TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
AT AROUND 8 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER VSBY AT KUTS AND KCXO
AGAIN IN THE MORNING.
39
&&
.MARINE...
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS
AXIS STRETCHING INTO TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NE WINDS
ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST MAINLY AROUND 10KTS WITH 15KTS OFF THE
COAST. NE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3FT OFF SHORE. MODELS STILL
INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW GULF FOR TOMORROW. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW. THIS MAY KICK UP
WINDS TO MORE SUSTAINED 15KTS AND SEAS CLOSER TO 3-5FT IN OFFSHORE
AREAS. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH TO LOWER LEVELS. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 86 65 87 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 86 66 87 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 82 71 83 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39
000
FXUS64 KSJT 182007
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
307 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO CONTINUE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. GFS DOES PICK UP
SOME 700-500MB MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT HOW
MUCH GIVEN A WEAK 700 MB RIDGE OVER THE REGION. NAM MODEL IS
DRIER. RIGHT NOW WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MAIN CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL US. MAY SEE A FRONT MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK UPLIFT OVER THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 58 85 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 53 86 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 54 87 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/04
000
FXUS64 KEWX 181946
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE 700MB LOW, WHICH HAS GENERATED THE SPRINKLES AND HIGH BASED
CLOUDS, WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT THEN LIFTS NORTH
FRIDAY LEAVING A WEAK TROF AXIS ALONG I-35 THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA WEST OF I-35 LATE TONIGHT THEN BEGIN
THINNING FRIDAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
NEAR THE PANHANDLE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS. ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WILL KICK IN AND SKIES WITH VARY BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THANKS TO THE WAVE ON
THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF.
UPPER HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.. THIS EFFECTIVELY KEEPS
RIDGING FIXED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE STATE OF TEXAS AND
OUR WINDS MOSTLY NORTHEAST AND EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - UPPER HEIGHTS DROP AS THE BROAD LONG WAVE
TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ELONGATES
N/S, NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXPECTED TO RISE TO OPTIMUM 1.3", INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO THE MEAN
EASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 87 64 90 65 / - 0 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 90 59 90 61 / - 0 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 88 62 89 65 / 0 - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
06/01
000
FXUS64 KMAF 181919
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
NW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACRS CWFA WITH TROF AXIS POSITIONED E.
NW MID LEVEL FLOW SEEMS PRETTY DRY AND WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH SFC DWPNTS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL AGAIN BE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
DIURNAL RANGES NEARING 25 DEGREES. INTO FRI NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND GFS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE CONVERGENT SE FLOW
INTO E-NE NM FOR SHRA/TSRA. MODEL QPF/S KEEP PRECIP N-NW OF CWFA
BUT 7H-5H LR/S STILL NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS WITH LIMITED SFC MSTR KEEPS
85H BASED LI/S POSITIVE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FCST. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN SOME MCLOUDY CONDITIONS THRU MIDNIGHT ACRS
NW. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EDGE EWD SAT WHICH WOULD TEND CUT
OFF PRECIP FROM GENERATION SOURCE OF NM MTNS AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRY FCST. NAM 85H TEMPS NEAR 22C OVER MAF SAT WHICH YIELDS
TEMPS LOWER TO UPPER 80S FRI/SAT. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD SUN THUS MAINTAINING DRY FCST AND 5H HGHTS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WILL TREND TEMPS UP SOME. 5H RIDGE AXIS MOVES E SUN WHICH
WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO HAVE MORE OF A WLY COMPONENT WHICH
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENHANCE LEE TROF SOME AND ASSOCD 85H THERMAL
RIDGE. THESE FEATURES LEE TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE MORE
PROMINENT MON AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO INTER MTN W SLOWLY
INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW ACRS SE NM/W TX. GFS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF BUT IN GENERAL TUE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MON BUT WARMER WITH MORE WIND. ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THRU W TX/SE NM LATE WED OR THUR AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
TROF MOVES E. PRE/POST FRONTAL PRECIP ISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING DEGREE OF MSTR RETURN AND DEPTH OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THRU BIG BEND. AS OF LATE MORNING THE STAGE AT PRESIDIO
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS JUST BELOW 28 FT. LEVELS CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO BREACHES ON THE LEVEE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE CONCHOS. ALSO IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT THE LEVEE
HAS BEEN BREACHED SE OF PRESIDIO AND OTHER SECTIONS ARE SHOWING
WEAKNESS.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 55 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 52 85 55 87 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 57 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 54 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 54 80 59 78 / 0 10 0 10
HOBBS NM 52 86 56 86 / 0 10 10 10
MARFA TX 42 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 54 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 56 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 54 88 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181915
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
215 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN/TNGT...YET
REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE (BASED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/STREAMLINES AND MID/UPPER GFS Q-VECTOR CONVERGENT PATTERN)
WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION TDA. RECENT PCPN ACRS LRD GENERATED ONLY
A TRACE OF PCPN. YET...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PCPN. THUS...ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE FCST FOR TDA.
EXPECT MSLP GRADIENT TO PERSIST OVR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT NE FLOW. THE GFS PROGS WIND TO INCREASE
TO NEAR THE SCA CATEGORY OVR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTN. YET
WL MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST OF 15KT AND MONITOR FOR PSBL UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN COAHUILA MOVING EAST. SOUTH TEXAS
RADARS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
BUT A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP AROUND LAREDO. VERY DRY
LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
A FEW SPRINKLES MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL EVAPORATE AND WILL NOT MENTION SPRINKLES
IN THE FORECAST. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE MID-COAST
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXPECT DECREASE IN CLOUDS TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WITH LESS SKY COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...BY THE WEEKEND THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM PROG A MID LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT ALL CONTINUE TO ONLY SHOW A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES
BELOW 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...AM ONLY EXPECTING AT BEST AN
ISOLATED SHOWER FOR SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ON
SUNDAY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE GULF RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
IN OUR RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE MOISTURE FIELD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MUCH WETTER PATTERN COMPARED TO A MUCH DRIER GFS. IN
FACT...IT SEEMS THE GFS PUSHES THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OUT
ONE MORE DAY EACH RUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. AM EXPECTING THE PATTERN TO BECOME WETTER BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK SINCE BOTH MODELS PROG THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...ONLY QUESTION IS HOW HIGH POPS SHOULD BE. DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO FOR NOW SINCE THE TIME IN
QUESTION IS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED. TRENDED POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
WEST...CONSISTENT WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THIS EVENTUAL
FEATURE AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT ACTUALLY RETURNS. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE.
AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCEC RANGE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE PERIOD BUT GENERALLY WILL BE AROUND
15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 88 68 90 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 61 87 65 90 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 66 91 69 94 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 62 90 67 91 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 67 86 71 89 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 61 91 65 92 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 62 89 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 68 85 71 88 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KBRO 181840
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
140 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FAIR WEATHER TO PERSIST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME STABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW FAR WEST OR
EAST A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF. RAIN...IF ANY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL
ZONES. GFS SUGGESTS THE LOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT MOVING
NORTHEAST MAKINGS ITS CLOSEST APPROACH FRIDAY WITH SOME WRAP
AROUND RAIN REACHING COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS
DEPICTION MOVES THE LOW SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IF THIS OCCURS RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. NAM
INDICATES THE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MOVING NORTH
PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN GULF COAST WORKING ITS WAY JUST SOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE RIVER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING BACK
SOUTH OR WEAKENING WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE PERSISTING IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. GFS MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST ON FRIDAY
WHILE THE NAM SHOWS LOW POPS ON FRIDAY AND HIGHER POPS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON OVERALL OUTCOME AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM. WITH IS SAID...RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO MID TO LONGER RANGE FORECAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF STAGNANT PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES NIL TO SLIGHT
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK . TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR
NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS NOT AS OPPRESSIVE AS MID SEPTEMBER COULD
OFFER WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINTAINING DEWPOINTS AROUND 70
IN THE EAST AND 60S OUT WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...CU BEGINNING TO FILL IN NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ESPECIALLY IN THE BRO AND HRL AREAS. SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FILL IN MORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT SOME AROUND SUNSET. SCT TO BKN HIGHER CLOUDS
COULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME LOCALES. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
COASTAL AREAS. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
AND OTHER REGIONAL AIRPORTS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...AT 1 PM BUOY020 REPORTED A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 16
KNOTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS. IT REMAINS
RATHER QUIET SO FAR TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THE
AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN SURFACE WEATHER FEATURES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS
A RESULT THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY ON THE LIGHT
TO MODERATE SIDE. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FASHION ON FRIDAY. SEAS HAVE REMAINED LOW AND STEADY THE
LAST 24 HOURS AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE AT THAT STATE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 86 71 88 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 67 87 70 90 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 66 88 69 90 / 10 10 10 10
MCALLEN 66 89 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 64 90 68 93 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 86 73 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
59/57
000
FXUS64 KEWX 181739
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS S TX
THIS AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES AND THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFT EAST
AND DRIER W-NWLY WINDS PREVAIL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FT...EXCEPT
FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CU AT 4-5 TSHD FT. A FEW -SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. VARIABLE ELY
SURFACE WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
UPDATE...
CLOUD BASES HAVE GRADUALLY LOWERED DUE TO MOISTENING FROM ABOVE.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, PUNCHING THRU TEXAS, IS CARRYING ITS OWN
PRECIP. NOW THAT THE UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW THIS TROF IS OVER US
AND A 700MB LOW IS BETWEEN DEL RIO AND MIDLAND, AND AT 500MB A
TROF LINE EXTENDS FROM AMARILLO SOUTH TO BETWEEN EL PASO AND
MIDLAND, THE PRECIP WILL FINALLY END FROM THE WEST. WITH THIS NEW
INFORMATION, THE END OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST TO I-35 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA AROUND SUNSET.
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. REST OF
FORECAST GOOD TO GO. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ARE AVAILABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN IS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
HAS MORE ENERGY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR RAIN AND CLOUDINESS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
THIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES SHIFT EAST
AND WESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CIGS/CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FT.
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING AS DISTURBANCES PASS BY.
I-35 CORRIDOR WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK. KDRT TERMINAL SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 500MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT LATER THIS MORNING. THEN RIDGE WILL TAKE FIRM CONTROL.
FORECAST IS VERY DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DON`T EXPECT ANY CHANCE
FOR RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN LEADING TO
SPREADING POPS OVER LONG PERIOD. WHEN IT ACTUALLY GETS HERE THE
PERIOD OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY WITH DRY, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER. THEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL
INCREASE WITH THE RETURN OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 88 64 88 65 / - - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 88 60 88 61 / - - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 60 88 63 89 66 / 0 - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 87 63 88 66 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
06/01
000
FXUS64 KMAF 181739
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
GENERALLY LIGHT SERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING WEAK AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW A STREAM OF DRY AIR CONTINUING TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. MAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED FURTHER OFF
TOWARDS THE EAST WITH DEPARTING WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW/MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY FG/BR.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
32
000
FXUS64 KAMA 181733 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1233 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY 18Z...THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
AFTER 01Z. SO ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
JJB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES WILL SPREAD SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES TODAY. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET.
TAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TDA AND TNGT...WITH MODELS
DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKNESS DEVELOPING LATE TDA AND
TRAVERSING NRN ZONES TNGT. WITH LIMITED INSTBY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED ALONG SFC TROF NEAR NWRN ZONES...HAVE KEPT FCST DRY.
SOME INCREASE IN SFC WINDS EXPECTED TDA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN
ZONES. WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRI THRU SAT AS H5
RDG MIGRATES TOWARD PNHDLS. FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SAT
NGT THRU SUN NGT...THEN BECOME SW ON MON.
GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT CLOSE TO FCST AREA BY LATE TUE...AND ALLOWS
SAME TO SLIP INTO NWRN HALF OF CWA ON WED. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
POPS...AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS TUE NGT AND WED.
ALL POPS REMAIN DRY THRU FCST. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS
ALL PERIODS EXCEPT TUE AND WED...WHERE MEX MAXIMA HAVE BEEN INCREASED
BY ABOUT 2 DEG F. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 25 PCT ACROSS NWRN AND
WRN ZONES TDA THRU SAT. ALTHOUGH 20 FT WINDS WILL INCREASE TDA...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MIN RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT SUN THRU WED...WITH NO
EXCESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/02
000
FXUS64 KHGX 181729
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES AT MULTIPLE LEVELS ACROSS SE TX AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE
FOR THE MAIN TERMINALS. CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OUT TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
AT AROUND 8 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER VSBY AT KUTS AND KCXO
AGAIN IN THE MORNING.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS BEING PICKED UP BY THE HGX RADAR THIS MORNING MOVING
OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
REALLY SURE IF A WHOLE LOT OF IT IS REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A DRIER
AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD BASES. ONE OF THE STRONGER ECHOES WENT
RIGHT OVER CLL AND ONLY PRODUCED A TRACE OF RAIN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING...SO DID A LITTLE TWEAKING
ON THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AREAWIDE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO TODAY`S TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR LOWER 80S PREDICTION MIGHT END
UP A DEGREE OR TWO TOO HIGH DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COMING
INTO THE AREA AND SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE LIGHT RAIN.
UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE IS ALREADY OUT. 42/39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WAS OVER SE TX THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. EVEN THOUGH THE
AIRMASS WAS QUITE DRY OVER SE TX...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD
GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND PUSH THE LOW NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT IS HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE
ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL AND MARINE LOCATIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A BIT FURTHER INLAND NEXT WEEK.
40
AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL AFFECT RURAL TERMINALS LIKE KUTS/KCXO/KLBX
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS
FORECAST TO STAY UP A BIT MORE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS FOG THIS PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10
KTS OR LESS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRI MORNING. 35
MARINE...
DOMINATING FACTOR IN THE MARINE FCST WILL BE THE LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO TEXAS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE STATE FRIDAY WHICH WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
IN THE NW GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME A BIT
MORE NORTHERLY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FRI THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE BORDERLINE SCEC CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER THE
20-60 NM WATERS THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS 15-17 KTS AND SEAS RUNNING
3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AND VEER TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY/TUESDAY AS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TIDE LEVELS RUNNING 0.5 TO 1
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FOOT OF NORMAL. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 82 60 86 64 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 81 62 86 66 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 70 82 73 82 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42
000
FXUS64 KFWD 181726 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS.
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING EAST AND RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF KACT...AND EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF TAF SITES. DECREASING CLOUD
COVER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TEXAS. AS UPPER TROUGH HELPS TO
LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES OVER WESTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY...SURFACE
RIDGE WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND RESULT IN BACKING SURFACE WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. 07/BB
&&
.UPDATE...
1053 AM CDT
DECIDED TO STAY WITH CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT I WOULD COOL THEM OFF A BIT DUE TO MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DO ANTICIPATE SOME
SUNSHINE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS HAD TO BE
BUMPED UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAISED DEWPOINTS AS MUCH AS 8
DEGREES IN SOME PLACES...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CWA.
77/TLD
&&
.AVIATION...
AS NOTED IN PUBLIC DISCUSSION BELOW...PLENTY OF MID/UPR MOISTURE
STREAMING OVER N TX AIRPORTS THIS A.M IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE
MOVING ENE ACROSS TX PANHANDLE ATTM. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP/-RA
EXPECTED DUE TO VERY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 500 MB. SFC HI RIDGE JUST
TO OUR NORTH WILL LEND TO E/NELY WNDS 6-8 KTS ONCE AGAIN...ALONG
WITH AS/CS CIGS AND A FEW CU AROUND 4 KFT. AFTER 00Z FRI...WINDS
GO LGT E/SE AND VFR CONDS CONT...AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
AND SKIES CLEAR A BIT MORE.
/05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
TEXAS. SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A PRECIP-PRODUCING
LAYER TO DEVELOP...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.
NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS REACHED THE GROUND...EVEN FROM
BASES ABOVE 10KFT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE UNMEASURABLE.
THE PERSISTENT PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTH TEXAS HAS BEEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD...AND FREQUENTLY BKN CI/CS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY. FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING FOR AREAS IN WHICH
SUNSHINE WILL FILTER THROUGH...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL MORE READILY DIM THE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
WARMING TREND...BUT WILL STAY A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED FROM THE DRIEST POINT A COUPLE OF DAYS
AGO...BUT STILL REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. SHORTWAVE
THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. INSUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF CWA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BUOY CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT
FOLLOWS SHORTWAVE EXIT. CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN AND INTER-MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT REGARDLESS OF
VERIFYING SOLUTION...LITTLE CHANGE IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 83 63 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO, TX 84 57 87 61 85 / 5 0 0 5 5
PARIS, TX 81 59 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 83 56 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 83 54 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALLAS, TX 83 62 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 82 58 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 83 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 82 58 86 61 87 / 5 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
77/
000
FXUS64 KSJT 181725
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE UNDER 10 KTS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY HAS SHIFTED TO
THE EAST AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. FOR AVIATION CONCERNS READ DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY HIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. HIGHS CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING COME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANCES.
IN THE NEAR TERM...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ATTM AND IS PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE
MOISTURE HAS NOT MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS JUNCTION...WITH OVERCAST
CEILINGS AT 11KFT AND A 45 DEGREE DEWPOINT AT THE SFC. WILL
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF A 20 PERCENT CHANCE POP IS NEEDED
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AFTER 12Z. QG LIFT FROM THE WAVE WILL SHIFT
EAST LATER TODAY...LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN THE NEGATIVE DPVA
SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS DONE VERY
WELL THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MAXES...AND I PLAN ON FOLLOWING
IT AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT
THEY WERE YESTERDAY. WE REMAIN IN AN AREA OF QG SUBSIDENCE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES SLOWLY EAST SO DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE.
TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY SLIDES EAST...AND IT SHOULD
FEEL MORE WARM AND MUGGY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER RIDGING
IN PLACE THRU TUESDAY THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST THE
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO WEST CENTRAL TX. THE COMBINATION OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE IMPINGING ON US FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR POPS...AND BROAD BRUSH A 15 POP
OVER THE FCST AREA. POPS MAY BE INCREASED AS THE DETAILS GET
IRONED OUT LATER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 81 54 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 83 54 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 84 54 86 55 87 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
12
000
FXUS64 KFWD 181553
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1053 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO STAY WITH CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT I WOULD COOL THEM OFF A BIT DUE TO MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DO ANTICIPATE SOME
SUNSHINE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS HAD TO BE
BUMPED UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAISED DEWPOINTS AS MUCH AS 8
DEGREES IN SOME PLACES...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CWA.
77/TLD
&&
.AVIATION...
AS NOTED IN PUBLIC DISCUSSION BELOW...PLENTY OF MID/UPR MOISTURE
STREAMING OVER N TX AIRPORTS THIS A.M IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE
MOVING ENE ACROSS TX PANHANDLE ATTM. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP/-RA
EXPECTED DUE TO VERY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 500 MB. SFC HI RIDGE JUST
TO OUR NORTH WILL LEND TO E/NELY WNDS 6-8 KTS ONCE AGAIN...ALONG
WITH AS/CS CIGS AND A FEW CU AROUND 4 KFT. AFTER 00Z FRI...WINDS
GO LGT E/SE AND VFR CONDS CONT...AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
AND SKIES CLEAR A BIT MORE.
/05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
TEXAS. SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A PRECIP-PRODUCING
LAYER TO DEVELOP...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.
NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS REACHED THE GROUND...EVEN FROM
BASES ABOVE 10KFT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE UNMEASURABLE.
THE PERSISTENT PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTH TEXAS HAS BEEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD...AND FREQUENTLY BKN CI/CS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY. FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING FOR AREAS IN WHICH
SUNSHINE WILL FILTER THROUGH...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL MORE READILY DIM THE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
WARMING TREND...BUT WILL STAY A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED FROM THE DRIEST POINT A COUPLE OF DAYS
AGO...BUT STILL REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. SHORTWAVE
THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. INSUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF CWA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BUOY CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT
FOLLOWS SHORTWAVE EXIT. CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN AND INTER-MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT REGARDLESS OF
VERIFYING SOLUTION...LITTLE CHANGE IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 83 63 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO, TX 84 57 87 61 85 / 5 0 0 5 5
PARIS, TX 81 59 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 83 56 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 83 54 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALLAS, TX 83 62 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 82 58 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 83 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 82 58 86 61 87 / 5 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
77/
000
FXUS64 KHGX 181518
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS BEING PICKED UP BY THE HGX RADAR THIS MORNING MOVING
OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. NOT
REALLY SURE IF A WHOLE LOT OF IT IS REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A DRIER
AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD BASES. ONE OF THE STRONGER ECHOES WENT
RIGHT OVER CLL AND ONLY PRODUCED A TRACE OF RAIN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING...SO DID A LITTLE TWEAKING
ON THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AREAWIDE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO TODAY`S TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR LOWER 80S PREDICTION MIGHT END
UP A DEGREE OR TWO TOO HIGH DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COMING
INTO THE AREA AND SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE LIGHT RAIN.
UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE IS ALREADY OUT. 42/39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WAS OVER SE TX THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. EVEN THOUGH THE
AIRMASS WAS QUITE DRY OVER SE TX...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD
GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND PUSH THE LOW NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT IS HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE
ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL AND MARINE LOCATIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A BIT FURTHER INLAND NEXT WEEK.
40
AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL AFFECT RURAL TERMINALS LIKE KUTS/KCXO/KLBX
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS
FORECAST TO STAY UP A BIT MORE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS FOG THIS PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10
KTS OR LESS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRI MORNING. 35
MARINE...
DOMINATING FACTOR IN THE MARINE FCST WILL BE THE LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO TEXAS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE STATE FRIDAY WHICH WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
IN THE NW GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME A BIT
MORE NORTHERLY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FRI THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE BORDERLINE SCEC CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER THE
20-60 NM WATERS THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS 15-17 KTS AND SEAS RUNNING
3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AND VEER TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY/TUESDAY AS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TIDE LEVELS RUNNING 0.5 TO 1
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FOOT OF NORMAL. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 82 60 86 64 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 81 62 86 66 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 70 82 73 82 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181453
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
953 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE (BASED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/STREAMLINES AND MID/UPPER GFS Q-VECTOR CONVERGENT PATTERN)
WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION TDA. RECENT PCPN ACRS LRD GENERATED ONLY
A TRACE OF PCPN. YET...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PCPN. THUS...ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE FCST FOR TDA.
EXPECT MSLP GRADIENT TO PERSIST OVR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT NE FLOW. THE GFS PROGS WIND TO INCREASE
TO NEAR THE SCA CATEGORY OVR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTN. YET
WL MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST OF 15KT AND MONITOR FOR PSBL UPDATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN COAHUILA MOVING EAST. SOUTH TEXAS
RADARS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
BUT A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP AROUND LAREDO. VERY DRY
LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
A FEW SPRINKLES MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL EVAPORATE AND WILL NOT MENTION SPRINKLES
IN THE FORECAST. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE MID-COAST
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXPECT DECREASE IN CLOUDS TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WITH LESS SKY COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...BY THE WEEKEND THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM PROG A MID LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT ALL CONTINUE TO ONLY SHOW A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES
BELOW 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...AM ONLY EXPECTING AT BEST AN
ISOLATED SHOWER FOR SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ON
SUNDAY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE GULF RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
IN OUR RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE MOISTURE FIELD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MUCH WETTER PATTERN COMPARED TO A MUCH DRIER GFS. IN
FACT...IT SEEMS THE GFS PUSHES THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OUT
ONE MORE DAY EACH RUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. AM EXPECTING THE PATTERN TO BECOME WETTER BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK SINCE BOTH MODELS PROG THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...ONLY QUESTION IS HOW HIGH POPS SHOULD BE. DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO FOR NOW SINCE THE TIME IN
QUESTION IS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED. TRENDED POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
WEST...CONSISTENT WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THIS EVENTUAL
FEATURE AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT ACTUALLY RETURNS. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE.
AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCEC RANGE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE PERIOD BUT GENERALLY WILL BE AROUND
15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 64 88 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 84 61 87 65 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 87 66 91 69 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 86 62 90 67 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 67 86 71 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 88 61 91 65 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 85 62 89 67 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 68 85 71 88 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KBRO 181436
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
936 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...A SPRINKLING OF SHOWERS ARE NOTED SOUTHEAST OF PORT
ISABEL AND JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER. RUC40 DEPICTS A
FEW WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW OTHERS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.53 INCHES AT
BRO...1.25 CRP AND 1.39 INCHES AT DEL RIO. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND AND WITH
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST LIKELY TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST. WITH THIS
SAID 10 PERCENT POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST WILL SUFFICE.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN THE BALLPARK EVEN WITH
BRIEFLY THICKER CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. WOULD EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN ALONG WITH SOME
DEVELOPING CU THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AT LRD. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
AIRPORTS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...AT 8 AM BUOY020 REPORTED A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS. THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER FEATURES. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS SOUTH
AND WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE REGION. NO DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED AS CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. WOULD EXPECT
MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES RETURNING ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LOW THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 311 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008...500 MB
TROFFING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN SOME SCT
CONV OVER CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...OVER THE
WESTERN GULF...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FIRING OFF SOME ISOLD
TO SCT CONV EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE 500 MB TROFFING OVER
TX AND DIGS IT STEADILY EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN PERSISTENT WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE
TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHICH WILL KEEP UP THE THREAT OF
SOME ISOLD TO SCT MARINE CONV JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS
OFFSHORE WILL ADVECT IN OVER THE BRO CWA. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
KEEP THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE IN
THE SHORT RANGE. THE ECMWF SUPPORTS THIS GENERAL TREND AND WILL
LEAVE OUT ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE SHORT RANGE. MAV AND MET
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REFLECTING SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
MAV TEMPS. IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A DRY BIAS WITH THE
ECMWF MAINTAINING A WET BIAS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO BUILD SOME WEAK
TO MODERATE 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE TX COAST WHICH EXPLAINS THE
DRYNESS IN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WEAKNESS IN
THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY EXPLAIN THE HIGHER POPS
AND BETTER MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWN IN THIS MODEL. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS
AND WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE OF POPS BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A
MENTION OF A SLGT CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. MEX TEMP
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THROUGH DAY 7 WITH SO-
SO CONSISTENCY SHOWING UP FOR POPS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL STICK
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 68 88 72 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 85 67 89 69 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 85 65 89 69 / 10 10 10 10
MCALLEN 86 65 90 67 / 10 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 87 65 91 68 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 73 86 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
59/57
000
FXUS64 KEWX 181434
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
CLOUD BASES HAVE GRADUALLY LOWERED DUE TO MOISTENING FROM ABOVE.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, PUNCHING THRU TEXAS, IS CARRYING ITS OWN
PRECIP. NOW THAT THE UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW THIS TROF IS OVER US
AND A 700MB LOW IS BETWEEN DEL RIO AND MIDLAND, AND AT 500MB A
TROF LINE EXTENDS FROM AMARILLO SOUTH TO BETWEEN EL PASO AND
MIDLAND, THE PRECIP WILL FINALLY END FROM THE WEST. WITH THIS NEW
INFORMATION, THE END OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ALMOST TO I-35 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA AROUND SUNSET.
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. REST OF
FORECAST GOOD TO GO. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ARE AVAILABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN IS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
HAS MORE ENERGY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR RAIN AND CLOUDINESS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
THIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES SHIFT EAST
AND WESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CIGS/CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FT.
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING AS DISTURBANCES PASS BY.
I-35 CORRIDOR WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK. KDRT TERMINAL SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 500MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT LATER THIS MORNING. THEN RIDGE WILL TAKE FIRM CONTROL.
FORECAST IS VERY DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DON`T EXPECT ANY CHANCE
FOR RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN LEADING TO
SPREADING POPS OVER LONG PERIOD. WHEN IT ACTUALLY GETS HERE THE
PERIOD OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY WITH DRY, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER. THEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL
INCREASE WITH THE RETURN OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 88 64 88 / 30 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 57 88 60 88 / 30 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 60 88 63 89 / - 0 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 60 87 63 88 / 30 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
06/01
000
FXUS64 KEWX 181159
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
659 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN IS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
HAS MORE ENERGY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. UPDATE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR RAIN AND CLOUDINESS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
THIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES SHIFT EAST
AND WESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CIGS/CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FT.
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING AS DISTURBANCES PASS BY.
I-35 CORRIDOR WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK. KDRT TERMINAL SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 500MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT LATER THIS MORNING. THEN RIDGE WILL TAKE FIRM CONTROL.
FORECAST IS VERY DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DON`T EXPECT ANY CHANCE
FOR RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN LEADING TO
SPREADING POPS OVER LONG PERIOD. WHEN IT ACTUALLY GETS HERE THE
PERIOD OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY WITH DRY, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER. THEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL
INCREASE WITH THE RETURN OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 88 64 88 / 30 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 57 88 60 88 / 30 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 60 88 63 89 / - 0 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 60 87 63 88 / 30 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/02
000
FXUS64 KEWX 181149
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
THIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES SHIFT EAST
AND WESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CIGS/CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FT.
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING AS DISTURBANCES PASS BY.
I-35 CORRIDOR WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK. KDRT TERMINAL SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 500MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT LATER THIS MORNING. THEN RIDGE WILL TAKE FIRM CONTROL.
FORECAST IS VERY DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DON`T EXPECT ANY CHANCE
FOR RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN LEADING TO
SPREADING POPS OVER LONG PERIOD. WHEN IT ACTUALLY GETS HERE THE
PERIOD OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY WITH DRY, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER. THEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL
INCREASE WITH THE RETURN OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 88 64 88 / 10 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 57 88 60 88 / 10 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 60 88 63 89 / - 0 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 60 87 63 88 / 10 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/02
000
FXUS64 KAMA 181128 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
628 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES WILL SPREAD SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES TODAY. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET.
TAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TDA AND TNGT...WITH MODELS
DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKNESS DEVELOPING LATE TDA AND
TRAVERSING NRN ZONES TNGT. WITH LIMITED INSTBY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED ALONG SFC TROF NEAR NWRN ZONES...HAVE KEPT FCST DRY.
SOME INCREASE IN SFC WINDS EXPECTED TDA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN
ZONES. WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRI THRU SAT AS H5
RDG MIGRATES TOWARD PNHDLS. FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SAT
NGT THRU SUN NGT...THEN BECOME SW ON MON.
GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT CLOSE TO FCST AREA BY LATE TUE...AND ALLOWS
SAME TO SLIP INTO NWRN HALF OF CWA ON WED. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
POPS...AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS TUE NGT AND WED.
ALL POPS REMAIN DRY THRU FCST. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS
ALL PERIODS EXCEPT TUE AND WED...WHERE MEX MAXIMA HAVE BEEN INCREASED
BY ABOUT 2 DEG F. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 25 PCT ACROSS NWRN AND
WRN ZONES TDA THRU SAT. ALTHOUGH 20 FT WINDS WILL INCREASE TDA...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MIN RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT SUN THRU WED...WITH NO
EXCESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/03
000
FXUS64 KMAF 181121
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OUT WEST SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID DAY. ELSEWHERE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
HENNIG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS...BRINGING THE
RAIN WITH IT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING MODERATELY DRY MID
LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MAF SOUNDINGS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING DRYING SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...
PRECIP WATER DOWN TO 0.57 INCHES 18/00Z. SO WITH LACK OF MOISTURE
OR FORCING MECHANISM...SHOULD KEEP THE REGION RAIN FREE.
SURFACE HIGH IS STILL LOCATED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEK. WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND BACK INTO THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEKEND AND
PIVOT INTO CANADA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NW U.S.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT A
COLD FRONT GETS PUSHED DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER DIFFERENCE IS
THAT ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WHICH STREAMS PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. HELD OFF ON
POPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM
PRESIDIO DOWNSTREAM TO BOQUILLAS. RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
STEADY ABOVE THE RECORD STAGE AT THE PRESIDIO INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE.
AS HIGH FLOWS CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM...WGRFC FORECASTS THAT NEAR RECORD
LEVELS WILL BE REACHED. AT THIS HEIGHT...THE LEVEE ALONG THE
RIVER WILL BE AT MAXIMUM CAPACITY AND BREACHES OR OVER TOPPING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY GOOD NEWS TO THIS SITUATION IS THAT IT
APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAINFALL ALONG THE RIO GRANDE OR
RIO CONCHOS DRAINAGE BASINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEFFER
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
10
000
FXUS64 KSJT 181110
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
610 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY HAS SHIFTED TO
THE EAST AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. FOR AVIATION CONCERNS READ DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY HIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. HIGHS CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING COME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANCES.
IN THE NEAR TERM...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ATTM AND IS PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE
MOISTURE HAS NOT MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS JUNCTION...WITH OVERCAST
CEILINGS AT 11KFT AND A 45 DEGREE DEWPOINT AT THE SFC. WILL
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF A 20 PERCENT CHANCE POP IS NEEDED
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AFTER 12Z. QG LIFT FROM THE WAVE WILL SHIFT
EAST LATER TODAY...LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN THE NEGATIVE DPVA
SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS DONE VERY
WELL THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MAXES...AND I PLAN ON FOLLOWING
IT AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT
THEY WERE YESTERDAY. WE REMAIN IN AN AREA OF QG SUBSIDENCE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES SLOWLY EAST SO DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE.
TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY SLIDES EAST...AND IT SHOULD
FEEL MORE WARM AND MUGGY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER RIDGING
IN PLACE THRU TUESDAY THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST THE
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO WEST CENTRAL TX. THE COMBINATION OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE IMPINGING ON US FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR POPS...AND BROAD BRUSH A 15 POP
OVER THE FCST AREA. POPS MAY BE INCREASED AS THE DETAILS GET
IRONED OUT LATER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 81 54 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 83 54 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 84 54 86 55 87 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/28
000
FXUS64 KFWD 181109 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.AVIATION...
AS NOTED IN PUBLIC DISCUSSION BELOW...PLENTY OF MID/UPR MOISTURE
STREAMING OVER N TX AIRPORTS THIS A.M IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE
MOVING ENE ACROSS TX PANHANDLE ATTM. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP/-RA
EXPECTED DUE TO VERY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 500 MB. SFC HI RIDGE JUST
TO OUR NORTH WILL LEND TO E/NELY WNDS 6-8 KTS ONCE AGAIN...ALONG
WITH AS/CS CIGS AND A FEW CU AROUND 4 KFT. AFTER 00Z FRI...WINDS
GO LGT E/SE AND VFR CONDS CONT...AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS TO OUR NORTH
AND SKIES CLEAR A BIT MORE.
/05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
TEXAS. SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A PRECIP-PRODUCING
LAYER TO DEVELOP...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.
NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS REACHED THE GROUND...EVEN FROM
BASES ABOVE 10KFT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE UNMEASURABLE.
THE PERSISTENT PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTH TEXAS HAS BEEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD...AND FREQUENTLY BKN CI/CS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY. FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING FOR AREAS IN WHICH
SUNSHINE WILL FILTER THROUGH...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL MORE READILY DIM THE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
WARMING TREND...BUT WILL STAY A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED FROM THE DRIEST POINT A COUPLE OF DAYS
AGO...BUT STILL REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. SHORTWAVE
THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. INSUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF CWA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BUOY CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT
FOLLOWS SHORTWAVE EXIT. CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN AND INTER-MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT REGARDLESS OF
VERIFYING SOLUTION...LITTLE CHANGE IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 83 63 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO, TX 84 57 87 61 85 / 5 0 0 5 5
PARIS, TX 81 59 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 83 56 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 83 54 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALLAS, TX 83 62 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 82 58 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 83 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 82 58 86 61 87 / 5 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 181007
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
407 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WHICH WILL HELP KEEP US SUNNY AND
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS HAS DRIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. TO REPLACE IT IS A WEAK
TROF MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST. WITH DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SURFACE IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE TROF WILL HAVE MUCH TO WORK WITH.
THOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT IN AREA MOUNTAINS TO
BE ABLE TO FIRE OFF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF US WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUNNY DRY
WEATHER. BY THE WEEKEND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE OUR SUNNY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEN ON TUESDAY THE EXTENDED MODELS MOVE A TROF ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. THE DGEX AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE ENERGY AND POPS
NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND STRONGER
WITH THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW I`VE GONE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM SO I`M NOT REAL EXCITED THAT
WE WILL SEE MUCH IN RAINFALL TOTALS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
RIDGE TRY AND BUILD IN TO CONTINUE OUR SUNNY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MAY EVEN MOVE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...18/12Z-19/12Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE ARE TO HELP CONTINUE
KEEPING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM...BUT NOT
ELIMINATE IT. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHTER END OF THE SPECTRUM
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND WITH RH RECOVERIES STILL BEING GOOD...BUT NOT
AS GOOD AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 83 60 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 78 56 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 82 57 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 81 56 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 65 38 69 41 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 82 55 86 57 86 / 10 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 79 51 80 53 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEMING 83 55 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 86 55 88 57 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
BRICE
000
FXUS64 KMAF 180930
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
430 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS...BRINGING THE
RAIN WITH IT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING MODERATELY DRY MID
LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MAF SOUNDINGS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING DRYING SINCE THIS PAST WEEKEND...
PRECIP WATER DOWN TO 0.57 INCHES 18/00Z. SO WITH LACK OF MOISTURE
OR FORCING MECHANISM...SHOULD KEEP THE REGION RAIN FREE.
SURFACE HIGH IS STILL LOCATED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEK. WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND BACK INTO THE
MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEKEND AND
PIVOT INTO CANADA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NW U.S.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT A
COLD FRONT GETS PUSHED DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER DIFFERENCE IS
THAT ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WHICH STREAMS PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. HELD OFF ON
POPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM
PRESIDIO DOWNSTREAM TO BOQUILLAS. RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
STEADY ABOVE THE RECORD STAGE AT THE PRESIDIO INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE.
AS HIGH FLOWS CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM...WGRFC FORECASTS THAT NEAR RECORD
LEVELS WILL BE REACHED. AT THIS HEIGHT...THE LEVEE ALONG THE
RIVER WILL BE AT MAXIMUM CAPACITY AND BREACHES OR OVER TOPPING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY GOOD NEWS TO THIS SITUATION IS THAT IT
APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAINFALL ALONG THE RIO GRANDE OR
RIO CONCHOS DRAINAGE BASINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 82 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 84 51 86 55 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN TX 83 56 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 84 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 78 52 80 59 / 0 0 10 0
HOBBS NM 83 52 85 56 / 0 0 10 10
MARFA TX 78 44 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 83 53 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 84 54 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 85 55 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
77/99
000
FXUS64 KCRP 180917
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
417 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN COAHUILA MOVING EAST. SOUTH TEXAS
RADARS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
BUT A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP AROUND LAREDO. VERY DRY
LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. COULD SEE
A FEW SPRINKLES MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE BUT EXPECT MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL EVAPORATE AND WILL NOT MENTION SPRINKLES
IN THE FORECAST. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE MID-COAST
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXPECT DECREASE IN CLOUDS TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WITH LESS SKY COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND A COOL
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...BY THE WEEKEND THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM PROG A MID LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT ALL CONTINUE TO ONLY SHOW A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES
BELOW 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...AM ONLY EXPECTING AT BEST AN
ISOLATED SHOWER FOR SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ON
SUNDAY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE GULF RESULTING IN AN INCREASE
IN OUR RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE MOISTURE FIELD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MUCH WETTER PATTERN COMPARED TO A MUCH DRIER GFS. IN
FACT...IT SEEMS THE GFS PUSHES THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OUT
ONE MORE DAY EACH RUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. AM EXPECTING THE PATTERN TO BECOME WETTER BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK SINCE BOTH MODELS PROG THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...ONLY QUESTION IS HOW HIGH POPS SHOULD BE. DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO FOR NOW SINCE THE TIME IN
QUESTION IS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED. TRENDED POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER
WEST...CONSISTENT WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...POPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THIS EVENTUAL
FEATURE AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT ACTUALLY RETURNS. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCEC RANGE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE PERIOD BUT GENERALLY WILL BE AROUND
15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 64 88 68 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 84 61 87 65 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 87 66 91 69 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 86 62 90 67 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 67 86 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 88 61 91 65 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 85 62 89 67 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 68 85 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
KR/97...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KFWD 180900
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
TEXAS. SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A PRECIP-PRODUCING
LAYER TO DEVELOP...BUT THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.
NONETHELESS...SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS REACHED THE GROUND...EVEN FROM
BASES ABOVE 10KFT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE UNMEASURABLE.
THE PERSISTENT PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTH TEXAS HAS BEEN
EXPANDING NORTHWARD...AND FREQUENTLY BKN CI/CS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY. FAVOR MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING FOR AREAS IN WHICH
SUNSHINE WILL FILTER THROUGH...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL MORE READILY DIM THE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
WARMING TREND...BUT WILL STAY A BIT BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED FROM THE DRIEST POINT A COUPLE OF DAYS
AGO...BUT STILL REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. SHORTWAVE
THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. INSUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTH TEXAS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF CWA ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BUOY CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT
FOLLOWS SHORTWAVE EXIT. CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN AND INTER-MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT REGARDLESS OF
VERIFYING SOLUTION...LITTLE CHANGE IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 83 63 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO, TX 84 57 87 61 85 / 5 0 0 5 5
PARIS, TX 81 59 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 83 56 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 83 54 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALLAS, TX 83 62 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 82 58 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 83 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 82 58 86 61 87 / 5 0 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/25
000
FXUS64 KEWX 180851
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 500MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT LATER THIS MORNING. THEN RIDGE WILL TAKE FIRM CONTROL.
FORECAST IS VERY DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DON`T EXPECT ANY CHANCE
FOR RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN LEADING TO
SPREADING POPS OVER LONG PERIOD. WHEN IT ACTUALLY GETS HERE THE
PERIOD OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY WITH DRY, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUD COVER. THEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL
INCREASE WITH THE RETURN OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 62 88 64 88 / 10 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 57 88 60 88 / 10 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 60 88 63 89 / - 0 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 60 87 63 88 / 10 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/02
000
FXUS64 KAMA 180849
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TDA AND TNGT...WITH MODELS
DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKNESS DEVELOPING LATE TDA AND
TRAVERSING NRN ZONES TNGT. WITH LIMITED INSTBY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED ALONG SFC TROF NEAR NWRN ZONES...HAVE KEPT FCST DRY.
SOME INCREASE IN SFC WINDS EXPECTED TDA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN
ZONES. WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRI THRU SAT AS H5
RDG MIGRATES TOWARD PNHDLS. FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SAT
NGT THRU SUN NGT...THEN BECOME SW ON MON.
GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT CLOSE TO FCST AREA BY LATE TUE...AND ALLOWS
SAME TO SLIP INTO NWRN HALF OF CWA ON WED. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
POPS...AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS TUE NGT AND WED.
ALL POPS REMAIN DRY THRU FCST. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS
ALL PERIODS EXCEPT TUE AND WED...WHERE MEX MAXIMA HAVE BEEN INCREASED
BY ABOUT 2 DEG F. 03
COCKRELL
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 25 PCT ACROSS NWRN AND
WRN ZONES TDA THRU SAT. ALTHOUGH 20 FT WINDS WILL INCREASE TDA...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MIN RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT SUN THRU WED...WITH NO
EXCESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED. 03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 79 53 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 5 0
BEAVER OK 83 55 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 5 0
BOISE CITY OK 80 53 82 52 83 / 5 5 0 5 5
BORGER TX 81 57 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 5 0
BOYS RANCH TX 84 53 85 56 87 / 0 5 0 5 0
CANYON TX 81 51 82 53 85 / 0 0 0 5 0
CLARENDON TX 80 54 80 59 83 / 0 0 0 5 0
DALHART TX 80 50 82 51 84 / 5 5 0 5 0
GUYMON OK 83 54 83 55 85 / 0 0 0 5 0
HEREFORD TX 80 51 81 51 84 / 0 0 0 5 0
LIPSCOMB TX 81 55 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 5 0
PAMPA TX 76 54 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 5 0
SHAMROCK TX 81 53 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 5 0
WELLINGTON TX 81 54 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 5 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/03
000
FXUS64 KHGX 180846
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WAS OVER SE TX THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. EVEN THOUGH THE
AIRMASS WAS QUITE DRY OVER SE TX...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD
GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND PUSH THE LOW NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT IS HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE
ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL AND MARINE LOCATIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND A BIT FURTHER INLAND NEXT WEEK.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL AFFECT RURAL TERMINALS LIKE KUTS/KCXO/KLBX
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS
FORECAST TO STAY UP A BIT MORE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS FOG THIS PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10
KTS OR LESS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRI MORNING. 35
&&
.MARINE...
DOMINATING FACTOR IN THE MARINE FCST WILL BE THE LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO TEXAS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE STATE FRIDAY WHICH WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
IN THE NW GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME A BIT
MORE NORTHERLY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FRI THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. COULD SEE BORDERLINE SCEC CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER THE
20-60 NM WATERS THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS 15-17 KTS AND SEAS RUNNING
3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AND VEER TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY/TUESDAY AS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TIDE LEVELS RUNNING 0.5 TO 1
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FOOT OF NORMAL. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 82 60 86 64 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 81 62 86 66 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 70 82 73 82 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...35
000
FXUS64 KLUB 180844
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.SHORT TERM...
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY/TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE TROUGH...SOME OF WHICH HAS CONDENSED INTO
CLOUD BANDS AND WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...WITH MORE
THICK CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPSLOPE
FLOW/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL HELP TO INITIATE SOME SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM THIS AFTN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MOVE INTO THE NE NM PLAINS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
TX/NM BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE
N/NE...LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE
LINGERING SFC RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. LOW-SIDE OF
TEMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELIABLE LAST FEW DAYS AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ADVANCING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST /WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/...THOUGH THEY SHOULD
DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWEST CWA FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND ON
INTO WESTERN CANADA SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE ON WEST TEXAS. IN
ITS WAKE MORE SIGNIFICANT JET ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BY NEXT TUE/WED AS THE
TROUGH ADVANCES STEADILY EASTWARD. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY
FORCING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH IT COULD PUSH A COLD
FRONT DOWN INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY NEXT WED OR THU. THIS FRONT
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE/UPPER FEATURES HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 79 52 81 53 83 / 0 0 10 10 10
TULIA 78 51 82 54 82 / 0 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 79 52 82 54 82 / 0 0 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 78 53 83 52 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 79 54 81 56 82 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 79 54 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 79 54 83 55 85 / 0 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 81 56 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 10 10
SPUR 80 56 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 10 10
ASPERMONT 82 56 88 54 86 / 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/23
000
FXUS64 KBRO 180811
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
311 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...500 MB TROFFING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS IS
RESULTING IN SOME SCT CONV OVER CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...OVER THE WESTERN GULF...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FIRING OFF SOME ISOLD TO SCT CONV EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE 500
MB TROFFING OVER TX AND DIGS IT STEADILY EAST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN PERSISTENT WEAK TO
MODERATE SURFACE TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHICH WILL KEEP UP
THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLD TO SCT MARINE CONV JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE LEVELS OFFSHORE WILL ADVECT IN OVER THE BRO CWA. BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM KEEP THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE POSITIONED JUST
OFFSHORE IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE ECMWF SUPPORTS THIS GENERAL TREND
AND WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS IN THE SHORT RANGE. MAV
AND MET TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REFLECTING SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV TEMPS. IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD...THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A DRY
BIAS WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A WET BIAS. BOTH MODELS TRY TO
BUILD SOME WEAK TO MODERATE 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE TX COAST WHICH
EXPLAINS THE DRYNESS IN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A
WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHICH MAY EXPLAIN THE
HIGHER POPS AND BETTER MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWN IN THIS MODEL. THE
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS RUNS AND WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE OF POPS BETWEEN THE
TWO WITH A MENTION OF A SLGT CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. MEX
TEMP GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THROUGH DAY 7 WITH
SO-SO CONSISTENCY SHOWING UP FOR POPS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL STICK
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT
THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...AT 1 AM BUOY 20 REPORTED NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 14
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 16 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A 6 SECOND
PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 68 88 72 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 85 67 89 69 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 85 65 89 69 / 10 10 10 10
MCALLEN 86 65 90 67 / 10 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 87 65 91 68 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 73 86 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...63
000
FXUS64 KSJT 180748
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
248 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING COME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANCES.
IN THE NEAR TERM...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ATTM AND IS PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE
MOISTURE HAS NOT MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS JUNCTION...WITH OVERCAST
CEILINGS AT 11KFT AND A 45 DEGREE DEWPOINT AT THE SFC. WILL
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF A 20 PERCENT CHANCE POP IS NEEDED
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AFTER 12Z. QG LIFT FROM THE WAVE WILL SHIFT
EAST LATER TODAY...LEAVING WEST CENTRAL TX IN THE NEGATIVE DPVA
SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR OUT AND
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS DONE VERY
WELL THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MAXES...AND I PLAN ON FOLLOWING
IT AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT
THEY WERE YESTERDAY. WE REMAIN IN AN AREA OF QG SUBSIDENCE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES SLOWLY EAST SO DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE.
TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY SLIDES EAST...AND IT SHOULD
FEEL MORE WARM AND MUGGY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER RIDGING
IN PLACE THRU TUESDAY THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST THE
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO WEST CENTRAL TX. THE COMBINATION OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE IMPINGING ON US FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW
WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR POPS...AND BROAD BRUSH A 15 POP
OVER THE FCST AREA. POPS MAY BE INCREASED AS THE DETAILS GET
IRONED OUT LATER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 81 54 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 83 54 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 84 54 86 55 87 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
LACY
000
FXUS64 KMAF 180609
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
109 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008/
DISCUSSION...
STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILTED 5H TROF IS EVIDENT IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
FROM THE GREAT BASIN SEWD INTO THE NM/W TX. HOWEVER 7H-5H
INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO CNTRL NM AND EXTENDING W-NW AND WITH
SFC DWPNTS IN THE 40S SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ABSENT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CWFA. FARTHER SW INTO RIO GRANDE/BIG BEND REGION WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MINOR SHRTWV TROF BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
THERE SO WILL TEND TOWARD A DRY FCST WITH ONLY -SHRA. OVERNIGHT
DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACRS PB SETTING UP ANOTHER GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND WIL AGAIN SIDE WITH THE MAVMOS...WHICH
HAS BEEN THE BETTER OF THE 3 THE LAST 2 NIGHTS. 7H-5H INSTABILITY
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER THUR WITH NW MID LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD
BE ENUF SE WIND AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR STORMS ACRS NE NM
BUT DON/T EXPECT THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE IT INTO SE NM. NAM
ADVERTISES 7H-5H LR/S TO STEEPEN TO 7 C/KM AS FAR SE AS PB WITH
NW FLOW CONTINUING. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF SE NM/NW PB FOR NOW
THOUGH...BUT ISOLD/SLGHT CHC POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED THERE
FRI EVENING. 85H TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH 20-21C BY FRI AND
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE. 5H FETCH WILL SHORTEN SAT AND SEEMS
THAT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHRTWV TROF/S WITHIN FLOW WILL LESSENED AS
85H TEMPS NEAR 22C SO TEMPS STEADY OR JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE SAT.
MID LEVEL WINDS BACK INTO SUN/MON AS TROF MOVES THRU ROCKY MTNS.
SFC DWPNTS REMAIN IN THE 40S ACRS SE NM TO 50S ACRS PB AND WITH
SHRTWV TROF/S ABSENT WILL CONTINUE DRY FCST. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED ACRS THE INTER MTN W TUE/WED AND EXPECT THAT LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO AMPLIFY FURTHER...A LITTLE
MORE THAN WHAT MODELS SHOW.
HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THRU BIG BEND. AS OF LATE MORNING THE STAGE AT PRESIDIO
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS NEAR 27.8 FT AND ROSE AS HIGH AS 28.21 FT
AROUND MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT...WHICH IS THE NEW RECORD AT THE
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE. LEVELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE DUE TO YESTERDAY/S BREECH ON THE LEVEE IN MEXICO ALONG THE
CONCHOS AND WATER IS NEARING/AT THE TOP OF THE LEVEE DOWNSTREAM OF
PRESIDIO.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.
&&
$$
10
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