[top]
000
FXUS64 KTSA 200515
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1215 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AREAWIDE. INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FYV AND XNA.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
[top]
000
FXUS64 KOUN 200239
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.UPDATE...
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX SHOULD REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... OTHER THAN A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA... ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
EXPECTED. NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
30
-------------------------------------------------------
242 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD... WITH A FEW MINOR EXCEPTIONS.
PATCHES OF GROUND FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY... MAINLY
IN VALLEYS... AND NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG THERE. ALSO... THERE IS
A REMOTE CHANCE THAT MEASURABLE RAIN MAY FALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT... IF THE SMALL GROUP OF SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SURVIVE THE TREK EAST. IN ANY CASE...
THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF WARM-AIR
ADVECTION-INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN KANSAS... A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY FORM OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL. AGAIN... THIS IS
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.
FINALLY... A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL VERY
SHAKY... MAKING TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE MAIN FEATURES QUITE
UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME... WILL ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWING MOS GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 57 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 53 86 57 85 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 54 83 58 82 / 0 0 10 10
DURANT OK 58 85 60 84 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/23
000
FXUS64 KTSA 200146
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
846 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL UPDATE TO LESSEN SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT AND TO RAISE DEWPOINTS A BIT. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
000
FXUS64 KTSA 200006
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
706 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN REDUCE VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE TOWARD MORNING.
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT KFYV AND
KXNA.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 192027
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ON BACK EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON
BUT WILL ADD A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO ZONE FORECAST.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS AREA SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOO WARM FOR HIGHS/COOL FOR LOWS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND
BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
AND BLENDED THE COOLER MET/WARMER MAV FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BLENDED THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH THE MEX/ECMWF GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 83 62 83 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 62 83 62 83 / 10 20 10 10
MLC 61 83 63 84 / 0 10 10 10
BVO 55 83 59 83 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 56 79 57 79 / 10 20 10 10
BYV 58 77 59 78 / 10 20 10 10
MKO 61 83 62 83 / 10 0 10 0
MIO 56 83 60 83 / 10 0 10 10
F10 61 83 62 83 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 60 84 62 84 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12
000
FXUS64 KOUN 191942
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
THE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD... WITH A FEW MINOR EXCEPTIONS.
PATCHES OF GROUND FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY... MAINLY
IN VALLEYS... AND NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG THERE. ALSO... THERE IS
A REMOTE CHANCE THAT MEASURABLE RAIN MAY FALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT... IF THE SMALL GROUP OF SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SURVIVE THE TREK EAST. IN ANY CASE...
THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF WARM-AIR
ADVECTION-INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN KANSAS... A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY FORM OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL. AGAIN... THIS IS
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.
FINALLY... A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL VERY
SHAKY... MAKING TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE MAIN FEATURES QUITE
UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME... WILL ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWING MOS GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 57 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 53 86 57 85 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 54 83 58 82 / 0 0 10 10
DURANT OK 58 85 60 84 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/23
000
FXUS64 KTSA 191744
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE TO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS.
FOG WILL AGAIN REDUCE VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT. BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KFYV AND
KXNA.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...17
000
FXUS64 KTSA 191543
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN TODAY ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM NEAR
THE FORECAST READINGS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA AS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST. NO UPDATE
PLANNED.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....12
000
FXUS64 KTSA 191110
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
.AVIATION...
OBSERVED FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SOON AFTER SUNRISE WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEING TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN TAF
FORECASTS. PATCHY FOG RETURNS TONIGHT WITH WIDELY VARYING
VISIBILITIES LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY NEGATE CONVECTION...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS ACROSS SE OK AND NW MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ITS TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA...
OR HAS DISSIPATED ALTOGETHER BY SUNDAY. AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS...THE
NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES DONT LOOK TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SCOPE OF
THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 82 58 83 60 / 10 10 10 10
FSM 82 61 84 60 / 20 10 20 10
MLC 82 59 85 59 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 81 55 83 57 / 10 10 10 10
FYV 79 53 78 55 / 20 10 20 10
BYV 79 55 77 57 / 20 10 30 10
MKO 81 57 83 59 / 10 10 10 10
MIO 83 57 82 58 / 10 10 20 10
F10 81 57 84 59 / 10 10 10 10
HHW 83 61 85 62 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07
000
FXUS64 KOUN 190924
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
424 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY. AS WITH
THE FIRST SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT... THE PRIMARY EFFECTS WILL BE TO GENERATE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. IT APPEARS THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY
AND CAPPED TO SUPPORT MUCH CHANCE FOR RAIN. MEANWHILE... THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT CONSISTENCY IN MOVING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS DIFFER
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
AND ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS... AND
DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER... MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN THE FRONT LIKELY BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. AS A RESULT... WE
WILL TRIM THE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS MILD TO WARM AFTERNOONS AND RELATIVELY COOL NIGHTS
CONTINUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 57 84 58 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 83 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 59 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 83 54 86 56 / 0 10 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 80 54 83 58 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 81 58 85 59 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/32
000
FXUS64 KTSA 190756
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL LARGELY NEGATE CONVECTION...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS ACROSS SE OK AND NW MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ITS TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA...
OR HAS DISSIPATED ALTOGETHER BY SUNDAY. AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS...THE
NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES DONT LOOK TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SCOPE OF
THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 82 57 83 60 / 10 10 10 10
FSM 82 60 84 60 / 20 10 20 10
MLC 82 58 85 59 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 81 54 83 57 / 10 10 10 10
FYV 79 53 78 55 / 20 10 20 10
BYV 79 55 77 57 / 20 10 30 10
MKO 81 57 83 59 / 10 10 10 10
MIO 83 56 82 58 / 10 10 20 10
F10 81 57 84 59 / 10 10 10 10
HHW 83 61 85 62 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23
000
FXUS64 KTSA 190450
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG WILL BE PREVALENT AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KTUL UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES.
KTUL WILL SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED AFTER 14Z FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA IS DECREASING FROM
THE WEST. DO NOT BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BUT NEVERTHELESS WILL RAISE MINIMUMS A
COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST PLACES BASED ON THE ECMWF/UKMET/RECENT
GUIDANCE BIASES. HAVE MADE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KTSA 190237
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA IS DECREASING FROM
THE WEST. DO NOT BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BUT NEVERTHELESS WILL RAISE MINIMUMS A
COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST PLACES BASED ON THE ECMWF/UKMET/RECENT
GUIDANCE BIASES. HAVE MADE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
000
FXUS64 KOUN 190214
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
915 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CONT TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FIRST BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ON EAST SIDE
OF CIRCULATION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY... BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT. FOR TONIGHT TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THOSE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES/UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
30
------------------------------------------------------
221 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FEATURE PERSISTENCE...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL TEND TO KEEP
TROUGHING AND THE COOLEST AIR OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A PACIFIC
TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES TOWARD THE PLAINS.
IN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET...A HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION
WAS EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH
CLOUDS...AND DIURNAL HEATING HAS PRODUCED LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH
STABLE AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS NEAR ZERO.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT BEGINNING TONIGHT...AS THE CIRCULATION
MOVES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...THINGS LOOK RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS.
BY SUNDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST...A LEE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO PULL A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD OUT OF TEXAS. INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH MAY SURVIVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL ALSO INCREASE AROUND THIS
TIME...BUT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE APPEARS MARGINAL...WITH 850 MB
RIDGING HOLDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUS...WE WILL MAINTAIN A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO POP VALUES ALONG A COLD FRONT NEXT
WED-THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE 12Z GFS LOOKED A LITTLE OVERDONE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED MUCH
WEAKER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 56 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 53 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 55 80 55 82 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 57 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/22
BURKE
000
FXUS64 KTSA 182318
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
LIGHT FOG FROM 08Z-14Z AT KRVS/KFSM/KXNA/KFYV. OCCASIONAL IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT KFYV AND KXNA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED TODAY. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT
OF TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER IN ARKANSAS
OR SOUTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY. THUS...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS IT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EITHER WAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN PLEASANT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY STEADY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THUS...ALL OTHER
THINGS BEING EQUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT VARY MUCH. DEW
POINTS MAY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL COOL NIGHTS WILL
REMAIN THE RULE. THE GFS MOS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM BUT
IS GENERALLY IN THE BALL PARK.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KTSA 182023
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED TODAY. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT
OF TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER IN ARKANSAS
OR SOUTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY. THUS...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS IT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EITHER WAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN PLEASANT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY STEADY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THUS...ALL OTHER
THINGS BEING EQUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT VARY MUCH. DEW
POINTS MAY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL COOL NIGHTS WILL
REMAIN THE RULE. THE GFS MOS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM BUT
IS GENERALLY IN THE BALL PARK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 56 83 56 83 / 0 10 10 10
FSM 58 84 59 82 / 10 20 10 20
MLC 55 84 57 83 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 50 82 50 82 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 50 79 52 77 / 10 20 10 20
BYV 53 79 55 75 / 10 20 10 30
MKO 56 82 56 82 / 10 10 10 10
MIO 54 84 56 81 / 0 10 10 20
F10 55 82 56 82 / 10 10 10 10
HHW 56 84 60 84 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....17
ABBAS
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181921
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
221 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FEATURE PERSISTENCE...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL TEND TO KEEP
TROUGHING AND THE COOLEST AIR OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A PACIFIC
TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES TOWARD THE PLAINS.
IN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET...A HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION
WAS EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH
CLOUDS...AND DIURNAL HEATING HAS PRODUCED LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH
STABLE AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS NEAR ZERO.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT BEGINNING TONIGHT...AS THE CIRCULATION
MOVES EAST. AT THE SURFACE...THINGS LOOK RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS.
BY SUNDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST...A LEE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO PULL A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD OUT OF TEXAS. INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH MAY SURVIVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL ALSO INCREASE AROUND THIS
TIME...BUT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE APPEARS MARGINAL...WITH 850 MB
RIDGING HOLDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUS...WE WILL MAINTAIN A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO POP VALUES ALONG A COLD FRONT NEXT
WED-THU...ESPECIALLY AS THE 12Z GFS LOOKED A LITTLE OVERDONE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED MUCH
WEAKER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 56 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 53 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 55 80 55 82 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 57 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/22
BURKE
000
FXUS64 KTSA 181534
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WILL SHAVE MAX
TEMPS FOR TODAY TO AROUND 80 IN MOST OF EASTERN OK AND LEAVE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN UPPER 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 IN FSM AREA. LOCAL
EXPERIMENTAL ENSEMBLE MOS SUPPORTS THIS...AS WELL AS THE WEAK TROF
ALOFT TO THE WEST...THAT SHOULD GIVE THE AREA SOME PATCHY CIRRUS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....17
000
FXUS64 KOUN 181527
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES... BUT THERE IS A NOTICEABLE UPPER WAVE
OVER THE PANHANDLES. IT IS GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA... SO THE FORECAST WILL NEED SOME MINOR
ATTENTION REGARDING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. AN UPDATE SHOULD
BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE SOME
CIRRUS... BUT NOT MUCH ELSE AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO AN UPPER LOW
OCCURS AFTER IT HAS ALREADY PASSED TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE LIFT THAT DEVELOPS WITH THIS
REMAINS EAST... THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST
OF THE AREA AS WELL.
NEXT WAVES MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AFTER THE EXIT OF THIS WEEKS WAVE...
ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN GETTING NUDGED EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY... WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP THAT IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE GRIDS /AT LEAST GIVEN THE CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL PROJECTIONS/.
WILL WATCH FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LAKES
THIS MORNING AS WE HAVE SEEN ON RECENT MORNINGS... AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER GRIDS BEFORE ZONE TIME IF NEEDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 56 82 57 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 81 57 83 58 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 57 85 59 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 81 54 82 55 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 82 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 77 57 83 60 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/22
000
FXUS64 KTSA 181119
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
619 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z AT BOTH
KXNA/KFYV WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA TODAY...POSSIBLY LIMITING RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY AT KNXA/KFYV AFTER
09Z TONIGHT BUT INDICATIONS ARE IT WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT AS
LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/
DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
BE INCREASING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THERE REMAINS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS. BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON THE LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTIONS. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH ONLY MINOR
MODIFICATIONS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...14
000
FXUS64 KTSA 180805
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
BE INCREASING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THERE REMAINS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS. BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON THE LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTIONS. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH ONLY MINOR
MODIFICATIONS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 58 82 60 / 0 10 0 10
FSM 80 56 80 59 / 0 10 10 10
MLC 80 56 81 58 / 0 10 10 0
BVO 81 52 80 55 / 0 10 0 10
FYV 78 52 78 53 / 0 10 10 10
BYV 78 53 79 53 / 0 10 10 10
MKO 80 55 81 58 / 0 10 0 10
MIO 80 56 81 57 / 0 10 10 10
F10 80 55 81 58 / 0 10 10 10
HHW 81 57 81 58 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....15
000
FXUS64 KOUN 180758
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
258 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE SOME
CIRRUS... BUT NOT MUCH ELSE AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO AN UPPER LOW
OCCURS AFTER IT HAS ALREADY PASSED TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE LIFT THAT DEVELOPS WITH THIS
REMAINS EAST... THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST
OF THE AREA AS WELL.
NEXT WAVES MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AFTER THE EXIT OF THIS WEEKS WAVE...
ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN GETTING NUDGED EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY... WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP THAT IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE GRIDS /AT LEAST GIVEN THE CURRENT MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL PROJECTIONS/.
WILL WATCH FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEY AND OVER LAKES
THIS MORNING AS WE HAVE SEEN ON RECENT MORNINGS... AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER GRIDS BEFORE ZONE TIME IF NEEDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 56 82 57 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 82 57 83 58 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 57 85 59 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 81 54 82 55 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 80 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 78 57 83 60 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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