000
FXUS61 KPHI 200233
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM EAST OFF
FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AS THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATL IMAGERY IS
SHOWING SOME SC MAKING DECENT WESTWARD MOVEMENT THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. WE WILL REMOVE EVENING WORDING. WE DROPPED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SWRN NJ AND THE MD EASTERN SHORE BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT SLOWLY WEAK AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. THE CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN SAT MORNING
SHOULD BREAK BY AFTN, BUT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SOME
REFORMATION OF THE CLOUDS. ON SUNDAY, STRATOCU SHOULD ALSO FORM IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SUNDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY THIS FRONT LOOKED
MOISTURE STARVED. HOWEVER, THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO FORM JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE DUE TO CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO
MAINLY NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A NEW AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MORE COOL AIR.

MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK OK FOR THE MINS, BUT FOR THE MAX TEMPS,
THEY LOOK TOO HIGH, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT TRACK RECORD
OF BEING TOO HIGH ON THE MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY,
BUT STILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION. WITHOUT ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT, THIS
SHOULD MEAN MORE DRY WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PC SKIES SOUTH, BUT CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE HIGH, IT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH INTO THURSDAY. THEN THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO RETREAT ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO ALLOW A NORTHWARD
SHIFT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA AND
THEN HEADS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA WITH A THREAT OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COULD COME BACK AT EVEN LOWER LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN AFFECT
PLACES AS FAR WEST AS KRDG AND KABE. MOS GUIDANCE WAS NOT UNANIMOUS,
WITH THE GFS MOS THE MOST EXAGGERATED AT SHOWING THIS, BUT THE ETA
MOS ACTUALLY HINTED AT THIS TOWARD AND AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL.
THE NAM BUFKIT DATA ACTUALLY DID SHOW THIS BETTER, EVEN INDICATING
PRETTY LOW MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT.

SO, THE RESULT WAS THAT BROKEN MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL BE BROUGHT
INTO THE TAF SITES TOWARD 04Z, WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER OVERCAST
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. FOR KACY
AND KMIV, THE BASES WILL BE CARRIED EVEN LOWER, AROUND 1 THOUSAND
FEET. ALSO, A MENTION OF FOG WILL BE USED FOR KACY AND KMIV
DEPENDING ON WHAT ACTUALLY COMES OFF THE OCEAN. WITH SOME RADIATION
OCCURRING INLAND TONIGHT, A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG WAS ALSO USED FOR
KRDG AND KABE WHERE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF TO 3 KNOTS OR LESS.

THEN, CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO LIFT AND SEPARATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
TAKES ITS EFFECT BY LATE MORNING. BUT, AMOUNTS WERE STILL KEPT IN
THE BROKEN RANGE THROUGH 18Z FOR NOW FOR SIMPLICITY`S SAKE (EXCEPT
FOR KABE AND KRDG, WHERE SCATTERED WAS USED).

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO NORTHEAST AND LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT AS
PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER SEPARATION OCCURS, THEN VEER BACK TO EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOUPLES SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE OUTLOOK BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BETTER
INFLUENCE OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A LIGHTER
ONSHORE FLOW AND PROBABLY LESS CLOUDINESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, BUT IF THERE ARE ANY MORE PERIODS OF PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW,
THIS COULD YIELD MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND THE
LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF TONIGHT, BUT
BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON DELAWARE BAY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY
REACHING 25 KNOTS, AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON THE
OCEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AND, IT WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO BE 25 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. WAVEWATCH HAS THE WORST
OF THE SEAS TONIGHT, BUMPING THEM UP TO 10 FEET AT BUOY 44009 (WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT 9 FEET), THEN GRADUALLY DROPS THEM OFF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT CONTINUES THE 5 AND 6 FOOT
SEAS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING THEM A LITTLE BIT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS EXTENSION IN TIME WILL MATCH OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. THEN, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT
TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT
SITUATION.

RIP CURRENT...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RESULTED IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY, AND THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH RISK REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 8:00 PM. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER US A BIT SATURDAY, BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE RISK WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE, AND
POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HIGH SATURDAY ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE. BEING THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED
WITH LIFE GUARDS, IT MIGHT BE BEST TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER SATURDAY
AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BUT
SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS MEANS THAT THE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BE A BIT
LESS THAN TODAY WHEN WE HAD SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. HOWEVER,
SINCE DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SATURDAY AND ALSO THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE A BIT LOW, IT LOOKS VERY QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER MINOR FLOODING WILL AGAIN OCCUR SATURDAY SO THE MINOR
FLOODING HEADLINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
TIDES...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...

000
FXUS61 KPHI 191902
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
302 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM EAST OFF
FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA ALLOWED
SOME STRATOCU TO MOVE IN FROM THE OCEAN TODAY AS WELL AS LETTING
CU/STRATOCU FORM IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. COOL AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM TO THE EAST AS WELL
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WAS ALLOWING
CLOUDS TO CONTINUING DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE. FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS, THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED ONSHORE FETCH. WITH THIS
FETCH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE OFFSHORE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT, WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF CLOUDS
COMING IN FROM THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING IN PLACE INTO
SAT MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WELL.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER, I WENT WITH MAV TEMPS, BUT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEM SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT SLOWLY WEAK AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. THE CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN SAT MORNING
SHOULD BREAK BY AFTN, BUT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SOME
REFORMATION OF THE CLOUDS. ON SUNDAY, STATOCU SHOULD ALSO FORM IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SUNDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. INITIALLY THIS FRONT LOOKED
MOISTURE STARVED. HOWEVER, THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO FORM JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE DUE TO CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW A SHOWER OR TWO
MAINLY NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A NEW AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MORE COOL AIR.

MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK OK FOR THE MINS, BUT FOR THE MAX TEMPS,
THEY LOOK TOO HIGH, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT TRACK RECORD
OF BEING TOO HIGH ON THE MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY,
BUT STILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION. WITHOUT ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT, THIS
SHOULD MEAN MORE DRY WEATHER. ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PC SKIES SOUTH, BUT CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE HIGH, IT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH INTO THURSDAY. THEN THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO RETREAT ENOUGH ON FRIDAY TO ALLOW A NORTHWARD
SHIFT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA AND
THEN HEADS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA WITH A THREAT OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL TRY TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOSING UP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE
FEATURES WAS LOADING UP THE LOW LEVEL (ABOVE-SURFACE) MOISTURE, AND
THIS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE GENEROUS STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMED THIS
MORNING. THE PRESENT MID-AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER SHOULD TEND TO BREAK
UP A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY AS THE
CLOUDS HAD THAT DISTINCTIVE DIURNAL APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BUT, MORE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COULD COME BACK AT EVEN
LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
EVEN AFFECT PLACES AS FAR WEST AS KRDG AND KABE. MOS GUIDANCE WAS
NOT UNANIMOUS, WITH THE GFS MOS THE MOST EXAGGERATED AT SHOWING
THIS, BUT THE ETA MOS ACTUALLY HINTED AT THIS TOWARD AND AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY AS WELL. THE NAM BUFKIT DATA ACTUALLY DID SHOW THIS BETTER,
EVEN INDICATING PRETTY LOW MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT.

SO, THE RESULT WAS THAT BROKEN MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL BE BROUGHT
INTO THE TAF SITES TOWARD 04Z, WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER OVERCAST
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. FOR KACY
AND KMIV, THE BASES WILL BE CARRIED EVEN LOWER, AROUND 1 THOUSAND
FEET. ALSO, A MENTION OF FOG WILL BE USED FOR KACY AND KMIV
DEPENDING ON WHAT ACTUALLY COMES OFF THE OCEAN. WITH SOME RADIATION
OCCURRING INLAND TONIGHT, A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG WAS ALSO USED FOR
KRDG AND KABE WHERE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF TO 3 KNOTS OR LESS.

THEN, CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO LIFT AND SEPARATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
TAKES ITS EFFECT BY LATE MORNING. BUT, AMOUNTS WERE STILL KEPT IN
THE BROKEN RANGE THROUGH 18Z FOR NOW FOR SIMPLICITY`S SAKE (EXCEPT
FOR KABE AND KRDG, WHERE SCATTERED WAS USED).

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO NORTHEAST AND LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT AS
PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER SEPARATION OCCURS, THEN VEER BACK TO EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOUPLES SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE OUTLOOK BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BETTER
INFLUENCE OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A LIGHTER
ONSHORE FLOW AND PROBABLY LESS CLOUDINESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, BUT IF THERE ARE ANY MORE PERIODS OF PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW,
THIS COULD YIELD MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND THE
LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF TONIGHT, BUT
BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON DELAWARE BAY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY
REACHING 25 KNOTS, AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON THE
OCEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AND, IT WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO BE 25 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. WAVEWATCH HAS THE WORST
OF THE SEAS TONIGHT, BUMPING THEM UP TO 10 FEET AT BUOY 44009 (WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT 9 FEET), THEN GRADUALLY DROPS THEM OFF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT CONTINUES THE 5 AND 6 FOOT
SEAS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING THEM A LITTLE BIT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS EXTENSION IN TIME WILL MATCH OUR SOUTHERN NEIGHBOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. THEN, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT
TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT
SITUATION.

RIP CURRENT...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RESULTED IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY, AND THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH RISK REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 8:00 PM. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER US A BIT SATURDAY, BUT
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE RISK WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE, AND
POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HIGH SATURDAY ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE. BEING THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED
WITH LIFE GUARDS, IT MIGHT BE BEST TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER SATURDAY
AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BUT
SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS MEANS THAT THE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BE A BIT
LESS THAN TODAY WHEN WE HAD SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. HOWEVER,
SINCE DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SATURDAY AND ALSO THE
ASTRONIMCAL TIDES ARE A BIT LOW, IT LOOKS VERY QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER MINOR FLOODING WILL AGAIN OCCUR SATURDAY SO THE MINOR
FLOODING HEADLINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
TIDES...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...

000
FXUS61 KPHI 191730
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MIDDAY WILL CONTRAST WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, WHEN THE HIGH
WILL BUILD MORE DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. THEN,
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY TO THE AREA. MORE CLOUDINESS FORMED OVER THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING, AND WAS FORMING WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SO, CLOUD COVER
WILL BE BUMPED UP A BIT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA, AND THE WORDING WILL BE ADJUSTED TO MOSTLY SUNNY FAR WEST,
AND TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CENTRAL AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST, AND SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE BY ONE TO A FEW DEGREES. MANY AREAS WILL RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH SOME SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS REACHING THE LOWER
70S. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE A E TO
NE FLOW OVER THE REGION.  TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BUT WITH DEW POINTS, IN THE 50S, ANOTHER A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN
STORE.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS THE AMS IS
QUITE DRY, AS REFLECTED BY THE LOW DEW POINTS.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRI...WITH
AN E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A DECREASING WIND
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE POCONOS WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...COULD
GENERATE SOME CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY.  A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
HIGH WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, AND SERVE AS AN
INTRODUCTION TO AUTUMN.  HOWEVER, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH, NO PRECIP IS FCST.  WITH PERSISTENT NE TO E FLOW OVER
THE AREA, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS.  BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AN UPPER LOW IS
FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OFF
THE SERN COAST.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLN WITH THESE FEATURES AND THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN ON THE
DAY 6 FCST AT THIS POINT.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE SRN ZONES ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME
PRECIP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP,
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH TO THE N AND THE LOW TO THE
S.  OVERALL MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE, AND JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL TRY TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOSING UP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE
FEATURES WAS LOADING UP THE LOW LEVEL (ABOVE-SURFACE) MOISTURE, AND
THIS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE GENEROUS STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMED THIS
MORNING. THE PRESENT EARLY-TO-MID-AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER SHOULD TEND
TO BREAK UP A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, BUT COULD
COME BACK AT EVEN LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN AFFECT PLACES AS FAR WEST AS KRDG AND KABE.
MOS GUIDANCE WAS NOT UNANIMOUS, WITH THE GFS MOS THE MOST
EXAGGERATED AT SHOWING THIS, BUT THE ETA MOS ACTUALLY HINTED AT THIS
TOWARD AND AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL. THE NAM BUFKIT DATA ACTUALLY
DID SHOW THIS BETTER, EVEN INDICATING PRETTY LOW MARGINAL VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.

SO, THE RESULT WAS THAT BROKEN MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL BE BROUGHT
INTO THE TAF SITES TOWARD 04Z, WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER OVERCAST
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. FOR KACY
AND KMIV, THE BASES WILL BE CARRIED EVEN LOWER, AROUND 1 THOUSAND
FEET. ALSO, A MENTION OF FOG WILL BE USED FOR KACY AND KMIV
DEPENDING ON WHAT ACTUALLY COMES OFF THE OCEAN. WITH SOME RADIATION
OCCURRING INLAND TONIGHT, A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG WAS ALSO USED FOR
KRDG AND KABE WHERE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF TO 3 KNOTS OR LESS.

THEN, CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO LIFT AND SEPARATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
TAKES ITS EFFECT BY LATE MORNING. BUT, AMOUNTS WERE STILL KEPT IN
THE BROKEN RANGE THROUGH 18Z FOR NOW FOR SIMPLICITY`S SAKE (EXCEPT
FOR KABE AND KRDG, WHERE SCATTERED WAS USED).

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO NORTHEAST AND LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT AS
PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER SEPARATION OCCURS, THEN VEER BACK TO EAST AND
STRENGTHEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOUPLES SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE OUTLOOK BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BETTER
INFLUENCE OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A LIGHTER
ONSHORE FLOW AND PROBABLY LESS CLOUDINESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, BUT IF THERE ARE ANY MORE PERIODS OF PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW,
THIS COULD YIELD MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MIDDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION INTO SATURDAY, MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS NORTH TO AROUND 30 KNOTS SOUTH ON THE
OCEAN, AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES ON DELAWARE BAY.  WITH WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY, WE WILL
DISCONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY AT 600 PM.
HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS BEING THAT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
FOR NOW, WE WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM ON SATURDAY IN
ORDER TO COVER THE FIRST THREE FORECAST PERIODS. IT WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.

THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT SITUATION.

RIP CURRENTS...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
BEING THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED WITH LIFE GUARDS,
IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT EVERYONE STAY OUT OF THE SURF TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, THEN IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.

AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DURING LAST NIGHT, TIDAL DEPARTURES
WERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. AT MIDDAY,
THEY WERE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY. AS A RESULT, THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH
EXPIRATION UNTIL 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL RANGE
FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE THEY START TO DECREASE. THE
EXPECTED DEPARTURES SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS LOWER, ASTRONOMICALLY SPEAKING, THAN
THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDES. HOWEVER, THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY,
AND THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE DEALT WITH AFTER THE 12Z GUIDANCE
PACKAGE IS REVIEWED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
      ANZ450>455.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ANZ430-431.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.../ NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM.../ NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../ IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

000
FXUS61 KPHI 191605
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1205 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MIDDAY WILL CONTRAST WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, WHEN THE HIGH
WILL BUILD MORE DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. THEN,
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY TO THE AREA. MORE CLOUDINESS FORMED OVER THE OCEAN AND EASTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING, AND WAS FORMING WESTWARD UNDER THE INVERSION
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SO, CLOUD COVER
WILL BE BUMPED UP A BIT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA, AND THE WORDING WILL BE ADJUSTED TO MOSTLY SUNNY FAR WEST,
AND TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CENTRAL AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST, AND SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE BY ONE TO A FEW DEGREES. MANY AREAS WILL RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH SOME SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS REACHING THE LOWER
70S. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE A E TO
NE FLOW OVER THE REGION.  TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BUT WITH DEW POINTS, IN THE 50S, ANOTHER A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN
STORE.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS THE AMS IS
QUITE DRY, AS REFLECTED BY THE LOW DEW POINTS.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRI...WITH
AN E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A DECREASING WIND
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE POCONOS WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...COULD
GENERATE SOME CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY.  A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
HIGH WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, AND SERVE AS AN
INTRODUCTION TO AUTUMN.  HOWEVER, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH, NO PRECIP IS FCST.  WITH PERSISTENT NE TO E FLOW OVER
THE AREA, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS.  BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AN UPPER LOW IS
FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OFF
THE SERN COAST.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLN WITH THESE FEATURES AND THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN ON THE
DAY 6 FCST AT THIS POINT.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE SRN ZONES ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME
PRECIP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP,
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH TO THE N AND THE LOW TO THE
S.  OVERALL MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE, AND JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MIDDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION DURING THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.

THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN,
PERHAPS REACHING 12 OR 14 KNOTS THERE AT TIMES, WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

AT 16Z, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER, STRATOCUMULUS
WAS FORMING WESTWARD FROM THE OCEAN UNDER THE INVERSION AND
AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW, WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
CLOUDS OFF THE OCEAN FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. BUT, CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE, AND THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY AT THE TAF SITES OTHER THAN KRDG AND KABE.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION SATURDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE NEW WEEK. ALL IN ALL, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MIDDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION INTO SATURDAY, MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
GRADUALLY RELAXING LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS NORTH TO AROUND 30 KNOTS SOUTH ON THE
OCEAN, AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES ON DELAWARE BAY.  WITH WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY, WE WILL
DISCONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY AT 600 PM.
HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS BEING THAT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
FOR NOW, WE WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM ON SATURDAY IN
ORDER TO COVER THE FIRST THREE FORECAST PERIODS. IT WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.

THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT SITUATION.

RIP CURRENTS...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.
BEING THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED WITH LIFE GUARDS,
IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT EVERYONE STAY OUT OF THE SURF TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, THEN IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.

AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DURING LAST NIGHT, TIDAL DEPARTURES
WERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. AT MIDDAY,
THEY WERE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY. AS A RESULT, THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH
EXPIRATION UNTIL 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL RANGE
FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE THEY START TO DECREASE. THE
EXPECTED DEPARTURES SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS LOWER, ASTRONOMICALLY SPEAKING, THAN
THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDES. HOWEVER, THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY,
AND THAT POTENTIAL WILL BE DEALT WITH AFTER THE 12Z GUIDANCE
PACKAGE IS REVIEWED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
      ANZ450>455.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ANZ430-431.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.../ NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM.../ NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION.../ IOVINO
MARINE.../ IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

000
FXUS61 KPHI 191027
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.   BEHIND THIS FRONT...YET
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY TO THE AREA.  TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S IN
MANY AREAS WITH, WITH SOME SRN AREAS REACHING THE LOW 70S.  DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S.  SOME SC HAS DEVELOPED,
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN SRN AREAS ON THE PERSISTENT NELY
FLOW.  HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDS.
WITH THE AMS QUITE DRY, EXPECT THESE CLOUDS NOT TO PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING.  LITTLE, IF ANY CLOUD COVER IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE A E TO
NE FLOW OVER THE REGION.  TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BUT WITH DEW POINTS, IN THE 50S, ANOTHER A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN
STORE.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS THE AMS IS
QUITE DRY, AS REFLECTED BY THE LOW DEW POINTS.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRI...WITH
AN E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A DECREASING WIND
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE POCONOS WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...COULD
GENERATE SOME CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY.  A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
HIGH WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, AND SERVE AS AN
INTRODUCTION TO AUTUMN.  HOWEVER, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH, NO PRECIP IS FCST.  WITH PERSISTENT NE TO E FLOW OVER
THE AREA, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS.  BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AN UPPER LOW IS
FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OFF
THE SERN COAST.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLN WITH THESE FEATURES AND THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN ON THE
DAY 6 FCST AT THIS POINT.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE SRN ZONES ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME
PRECIP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP,
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH TO THE N AND THE LOW TO THE
S.  OVERALL MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE, AND JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION DURING THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 0600Z ON
SATURDAY.

THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN AN NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO TONIGHT.  THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN,
PERHAPS REACHING 12 OR 14 KNOTS THERE AT TIMES WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

AT 1000Z, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE AND KRDG.  SOME STRATOCUMULUS WAS DRIFTING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND
AFFECTING PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, WE
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS OFF THE OCEAN FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.  THEIR BASES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
VFR RANGE, AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT KACY, KMIV, KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND PERHAPS KTTN.

THE VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON SATURDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE NEW WEEK.  ALL IN ALL, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO SATURDAY, MAINTAINING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT FOR TODAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY
RELAXING FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS TO PERHAPS 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.  WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY, WE WILL DISCONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY AT 600 PM.  HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS BEING THAT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.  FOR NOW, WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM ON SATURDAY IN ORDER TO COVER THE FIRST THREE
FORECAST PERIODS.  IT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.

THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT SITUATION.

RIP CURRENTS...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.  BEING
THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED WITH LIFE GUARDS, IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT EVERYONE STAY OUT OF THE SURF TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, THEN IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DURING THE NIGHT, TIDAL DEPARTURES
WERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.  THE
DEPARTURES MAY INCREASE TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BY THE TIME
OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY.  AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1000 AM
UNTIL 200 PM.

TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ONE TO ONE AND A HALF FOOT
RANGE FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE THEY START TO DECREASE.
THE EXPECTED DEPARTURES SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS LOWER, ASTRONOMICALLY SPEAKING, THAN
THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDES.  HOWEVER, THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.  WE WILL DEAL WITH THAT POTENTIAL AFTER WE SEE WHAT
TRANSPIRES TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
      ANZ450>455.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ANZ430-431.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

000
FXUS61 KPHI 190801
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.   BEHIND THIS FRONT...YET
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT
DAY TO THE AREA.  TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S IN
MANY AREAS WITH, WITH SOME SRN AREAS REACHING THE LOW 70S.  DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S.  SOME SC HAS DEVELOPED,
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN SRN AREAS ON THE PERSISTENT NELY
FLOW.  HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDS.
WITH THE AMS QUITE DRY, EXPECT THESE CLOUDS NOT TO PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING.  LITTLE, IF ANY CLOUD COVER IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE A E TO
NE FLOW OVER THE REGION.  TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BUT WITH DEW POINTS, IN THE 50S, ANOTHER A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN
STORE.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS THE AMS IS
QUITE DRY, AS REFLECTED BY THE LOW DEW POINTS.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON FRI...WITH
AN E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A DECREASING WIND
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE POCONOS WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...COULD
GENERATE SOME CLOUDINESS SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS FEATURE IS
LACKING MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY.  A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY.  THIS
HIGH WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, AND SERVE AS AN
INTRODUCTION TO AUTUMN.  HOWEVER, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH, NO PRECIP IS FCST.  WITH PERSISTENT NE TO E FLOW OVER
THE AREA, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS.  BY THURSDAY, THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AN UPPER LOW IS
FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OFF THE
SERN COAST.  THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLN
WITH THESE FEATURES AND THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN ON THE DAY
6 FCST AT THIS POINT.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER THE SRN ZONES ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIP BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP, THERE COULD
BE AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH TO THE N AND THE LOW TO THE S.
OVERALL MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE, AND JUST MADE A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION DURING THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 0600Z ON
SATURDAY.

THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN AN NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO TONIGHT.  THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN,
PERHAPS REACHING 12 OR 14 KNOTS THERE AT TIMES WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

AT 0800Z, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE AND KRDG.  SOME STRATOCUMULUS WAS DRIFTING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND
AFFECTING PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.  WITH THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CLOUDS OFF
THE OCEAN FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.  THEIR
BASES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE, AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT KACY, KMIV AND KILG, AND PERHAPS KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN.

THE VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH ONE EXCEPTION.  WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AT KRDG, WE MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT FOG OFF THE SCHUYLKILL RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON SATURDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY,
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE NEW WEEK.  ALL IN ALL, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO SATURDAY, MAINTAINING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT FOR TODAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY
RELAXING FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS TO PERHAPS 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.  WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS LATE TODAY, WE WILL DISCONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY AT 600 PM.  HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS BEING THAT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.  FOR NOW, WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM ON SATURDAY IN ORDER TO COVER THE FIRST THREE
FORECAST PERIODS.  IT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.

THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT SITUATION.

RIP CURRENT...
THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE.  BEING THAT MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED
WITH LIFE GUARDS, IT MIGHT BE BEST TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, THEN IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DURING THE NIGHT, TIDAL DEPARTURES
WERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.  THE
DEPARTURES MAY INCREASE TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BY THE TIME
OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY.  AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1000 AM
UNTIL 200 PM.

TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ONE TO ONE AND A HALF FOOT
RANGE FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE THEY START TO DECREASE.
THE EXPECTED DEPARTURES SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS LOWER, ASTRONOMICALLY SPEAKING, THAN
THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDES.  HOWEVER, THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.  WE WILL DEAL WITH THAT POTENTIAL AFTER WE SEE WHAT
TRANSPIRES TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
      ANZ450>455.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ANZ430-431.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

000
FXUS61 KPHI 182055
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
455 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. A CHILLY
HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY
THEN SLOWLY NUDGE UP INTO THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NJ
ZONES ATTM. INTERACTION OF THIS FRONT WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS
PRODUCED ENHANCED CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER SOUTHERN
NJ...AND WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS/SPRINKLES TO DRIFT SOUTH RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY EVENING. THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH MIN TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE...WITH 40S NORTH/WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
SOME SPOTS IN THE POCONOS COULD GET INTO THE 30S...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
OF A LIGHT N-NE OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT COMPLETE DECOUPLING AS WELL AS
FROST FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRI...WITH AN E-NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN MOST PLACES...PERHAPS TOUCHING 70 ONLY IN/NEAR
PHILADELPHIA. AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FRI NIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE POCONOS AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE COAST...COMBINED WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...COULD GENERATE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN COASTAL SECTIONS. DID NOT THESE CLOUDS AS
HARD AS GFS MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST...GOING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE ERODES CLOUD DECK FROM THE EDGES. PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO WEAKEN SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE
ALONG THE COAST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH DURING THE DAY
ON SUN...AND PASS THROUGH DURING SUN NIGHT. WHILE A LATE DAY SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT ENTERS NORTHWEST SECTIONS
TOWARD EVENING...TIMING OF FROPA AT NIGHT STILL SUGGESTS DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT PASSES S OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING...WITH ANOTHER LARGE
HIGH BUILDING SE FROM CANADA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF FALL-LIKE WX
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ON MON
AT 1144 AM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...AND CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS
LATE WED NIGHT OR THU AS A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SPREADS MARITIME
AIR INTO THE AREA. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS...
MAINLY TAKING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHEST MAXES IN A NOD TO
PERSISTENT MAV MAX TEMP BIAS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...
EXCEPT 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...A
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE ESE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER
E...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NEAR TERM THROUGH SUNSET...A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE NJ COAST AND MOVED INLAND. AT 17Z...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBLM SSWWD W OF KACY AND KWWD. BKN CIGS BETWEEN 4
AND 5 THSD FT WILL BE ALONG AND W OF THIS SEA BREEZE. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL TAKE OVER THE SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z CAUSING E
WINDS ALONG THE NJ COAST TO BECOME NE AROUND 10 KT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET.

SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT...A STEADY NE WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KT IS
FORECAST AT KACY. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE NJ/PA BORDER W.

FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM
NE ALONG THE COAST TO ESE INLAND...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AT KACY.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MON. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRES
FOR MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD SOUTH AND
EAST...PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...AND WIND GUST SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. AS A RESULT...AN SCA
CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...AND COULD EVENTUALLY
BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AS SEAS MAY TAKE A
BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.

THE HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER ON SAT...WITH A DRY
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUN NIGHT.

ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF PERSISTENT/BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITH SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW TONIGHT INTO FRI COULD PRODUCE TIDAL
DEPARTURES OF UP TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HIGH TIDES ON FRI...THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS...AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

GOODMAN/GC

000
FXUS61 KPHI 181754
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIA AFTERNOON...WITH NO
MORE THAN SOME POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. A
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, YET
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS OF
15Z...AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. LATEST NAM
DOING PRETTY WELL PINPOINTING POST-FRONTAL CU AND WAS USED AS
BASIS FOR ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM INITIAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION.  AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL, AND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.  THE AMS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ONE FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.  THE GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.  WHILE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP, THERE COULD BE SOME
SC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND SRN AREAS IN THE MORNING. ANY SC
SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE DAY, WITH FULL OR ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND PLEASANT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TWO
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN.  THE FIRST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS FIRST HIGH RETREATS, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.  THE FRONT IS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED, SO
WHILE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.

BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
CANADA.  THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IT LOOKS AS IF A TOUCH OF FALL WILL
BE RIGHT ON TIME AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS MONDAY AT 1144 AM.

THE NAM IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS IN
DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE SE COAST AND MOVING IT NWD. AS A RESULT,
THE NAM SOLN BRINGS SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP INTO THE SE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE NAM IS ALONE WITH THIS SCENARIO,
WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEP THINGS
DRY.

OVERALL, GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AS THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH STAYS TO THE N.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...A
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE ESE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES FURTHER
E...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NEAR TERM THROUGH SUNSET...A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE NJ COAST AND MOVED INLAND. AT 17Z...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBLM SSWWD W OF KACY AND KWWD. BKN CIGS BETWEEN 4
AND 5 THSD FT WILL BE ALONG AND W OF THIS SEA BREEZE. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL TAKE OVER THE SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z CAUSING E
WINDS ALONG THE NJ COAST TO BECOME NE AROUND 10 KT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET.

SHORT TERM OVERNIGHT...A STEADY NE WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KT IS
FORECAST AT KACY. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE NJ/PA BORDER W.

FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM
NE ALONG THE COAST TO ESE INLAND...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AT KACY.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MON. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRES
FOR MON.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRI.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN A
NORTHERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO START MIXING TO THE SURFACE.  IT
SHOULD BEGIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  WE ARE EXPECTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14
KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S.  AFTER
SUNSET, THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BIT AND THE
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.  ALL IN ALL, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE THIS MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE CANADIAN
ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE
HIGH WILL CAUSE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY AND WIND GUST SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
AS WAVES MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.

THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THE SITUATION.

RIP CURRENTS...
WITH THE INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY, WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CARRY A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE
AND AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.  THE FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES.  WITH THAT IN MIND, WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY`S HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURS BETWEEN
1100 AM AND NOON ALONG THE OCEANFRONT.  TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND
ONE FOOT WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.  BASED ON THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, THOSE DEPARTURES ARE ATTAINABLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GC/IOVINO
MARINE...GOODMAN/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

000
FXUS61 KPHI 181555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1155 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIA AFTERNOON...WITH NO
MORE THAN SOME POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. A
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, YET
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS OF
15Z...AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. LATEST NAM
DOING PRETTY WELL PINPOINTING POST-FRONTAL CU AND WAS USED AS
BASIS FOR ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM INITIAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION.  AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL, AND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.  THE AMS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ONE FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.  THE GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.  WHILE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP, THERE COULD BE SOME
SC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND SRN AREAS IN THE MORNING. ANY SC
SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE DAY, WITH FULL OR ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND PLEASANT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TWO
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN.  THE FIRST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS FIRST HIGH RETREATS, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.  THE FRONT IS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED, SO
WHILE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.

BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
CANADA.  THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IT LOOKS AS IF A TOUCH OF FALL WILL
BE RIGHT ON TIME AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS MONDAY AT 1144 AM.

THE NAM IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS IN
DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE SE COAST AND MOVING IT NWD. AS A RESULT,
THE NAM SOLN BRINGS SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP INTO THE SE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SINCE THE NAM IS ALONE WITH THIS SCENARIO,
WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEP THINGS
DRY.

OVERALL, GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AS THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH STAYS TO THE N.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRI.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN A
NORTHERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO START MIXING TO THE SURFACE.  IT
SHOULD BEGIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  WE ARE EXPECTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14
KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S.  AFTER
SUNSET, THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BIT AND THE
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.  ALL IN ALL, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE THIS MORNING WILL BUILD
SOUTH AND EAST...PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE CANADIAN
ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE
HIGH WILL CAUSE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY AND WIND GUST SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
AS WAVES MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.

THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THE SITUATION.

RIP CURRENTS...
WITH THE INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY, WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CARRY A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE
AND AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.  THE FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES.  WITH THAT IN MIND, WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY`S HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURS BETWEEN
1100 AM AND NOON ALONG THE OCEANFRONT.  TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND
ONE FOOT WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.  BASED ON THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, THOSE DEPARTURES ARE ATTAINABLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GC/IOVINO
MARINE...GOODMAN/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

000
FXUS61 KPHI 181047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY.  THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO
THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND IS
CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS.  CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN DURING THE DAY AND ANOTHER DRY
AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE.  OVERALL, STAT GUID LOOKS GOOD AND WAS
ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION.  AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL, AND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.  THE AMS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ONE FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.  THE GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.  WHILE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP, THERE COULD BE SOME
SC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND SRN AREAS IN THE MORNING. ANY SC
SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE DAY, WITH FULL OR ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND PLEASANT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TWO
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN.  THE FIRST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS FIRST HIGH RETREATS, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.  THE FRONT IS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED, SO
WHILE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.

BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
CANADA.  THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IT LOOKS AS IF A TOUCH OF FALL WILL
BE RIGHT ON TIME AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS MONDAY AT 1144 AM.

THE NAM/WRF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS IN
DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE SERN COAST AND MOVING IT NWD.  AS A RESULT,
THE NAM/WRF SOLN BRINGS SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP INTO THE SERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.  SINCE THE NAM/WRF IS ALONE WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEP
THINGS DRY.

OVERALL, GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AS THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH STAYS TO THE N.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO DURING THE
NIGHT, WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE HIGH WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, ENDING AT 1200Z ON FRIDAY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN A
NORTHERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO START MIXING TO THE SURFACE.  IT
SHOULD BEGIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  WE ARE EXPECTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14
KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S.  AFTER
SUNSET, THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BIT AND THE
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.  ALL IN ALL, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING, IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING
OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF CANADA`S ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE TRACK OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND WIND
GUST SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.  AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 400 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY.  HOWEVER, THE ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AS WAVES MAY
TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.

THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THE SITUATION.

RIP CURRENTS...
WITH THE INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY, WE HAVE DECIDED
TO CARRY A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE
AND AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.  THE FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES.  WITH THAT IN MIND, WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY`S HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURS BETWEEN
1100 AM AND NOON ALONG THE OCEANFRONT.  TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND
ONE FOOT WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.  BASED ON THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, THOSE DEPARTURES ARE ATTAINABLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

000
FXUS61 KPHI 180901
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY.  THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM CANADA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO
THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND IS
CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS.  CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN DURING THE DAY AND ANOTHER DRY
AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE.  OVERALL, STAT GUID LOOKS GOOD AND WAS
ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION.  AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL, AND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.  THE AMS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ONE FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.  THE GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.  WHILE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP, THERE COULD BE SOME
SC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND SRN AREAS IN THE MORNING. ANY SC
SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE DAY, WITH FULL OR ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND PLEASANT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TWO
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN.  THE FIRST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS FIRST HIGH RETREATS, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.  THE FRONT IS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED, SO
WHILE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.

BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
CANADA.  THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IT LOOKS AS IF A TOUCH OF FALL WILL
BE RIGHT ON TIME AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS MONDAY AT 1144 AM.

THE NAM/WRF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS IN
DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE SERN COAST AND MOVING IT NWD.  AS A RESULT,
THE NAM/WRF SOLN BRINGS SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP INTO THE SERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.  SINCE THE NAM/WRF IS ALONE WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEP
THINGS DRY.

OVERALL, GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AS THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH STAYS TO THE N.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO DURING THE
NIGHT, WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE HIGH WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, ENDING AT 0600Z ON FRIDAY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK.  AS A
RESULT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FOG, MAINLY AT OUR
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TAF SITES, KRDG AND KMIV.  HOWEVER, WE HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ITS MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.  WE WILL SIMPLY KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.

AFTER DAYBREAK, A NORTHERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO START MIXING TO THE
SURFACE.  IT SHOULD BEGIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  WE ARE EXPECTING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S.  AFTER SUNSET, THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE A LITTLE BIT AND THE GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.  ALL IN ALL, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING, IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING
OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF CANADA`S ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE TRACK OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND WIND
GUST SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.  AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 400 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY.  HOWEVER, THE ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AS WAVES MAY
TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.

THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THE SITUATION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.  THE FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES.  WITH THAT IN MIND, WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY`S HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURS BETWEEN
1100 AM AND NOON ALONG THE OCEANFRONT.  TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND
ONE FOOT WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.  BASED ON THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, THOSE DEPARTURES ARE ATTAINABLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO

000
FXUS61 KPHI 180755
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TODAY.  THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  A CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM CANADA
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO
THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND IS
CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS.  CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN DURING THE DAY AND ANOTHER DRY
AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE.  OVERALL, STAT GUID LOOKS GOOD AND WAS
ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN CANADA WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE REGION.  AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL, AND WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.  THE AMS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

ONE FCST PROBLEM INVOLVES CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.  THE GFS DOES
GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.  WHILE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY PRECIP, THERE COULD BE SOME
SC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND SRN AREAS IN THE MORNING. ANY SC
SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE DAY, WITH FULL OR ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND PLEASANT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS TWO
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN.  THE FIRST
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS FIRST HIGH RETREATS, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.  THE FRONT IS QUITE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED, SO
WHILE PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
ATTM.

BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN FROM
CANADA.  THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IT LOOKS AS IF A TOUCH OF FALL WILL
BE RIGHT ON TIME ASS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS MONDAY AT 1144 AM.

THE NAM/WRF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS IN
DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE SERN COAST AND MOVING IT NWD.  AS A RESULT,
THE NAM/WRF SOLN BRINGS SOME ORGANIZED PRECIP INTO THE SERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.  SINCE THE NAM/WRF IS ALONE WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEP
THINGS DRY.

OVERALL, GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AS THE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH STAYS TO THE N.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO DURING THE
NIGHT, WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE HIGH WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KPHL, KILG, KMIV, KACY, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, ENDING AT 0600Z ON FRIDAY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK.  AS A
RESULT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FOG, MAINLY AT OUR
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TAF SITES, KRDG AND KMIV.  HOWEVER, WE HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ITS MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.  WE WILL SIMPLY KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.

AFTER DAYBREAK, A NORTHERLY WIND IS FORECAST TO START MIXING TO THE
SURFACE.  IT SHOULD BEGIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  WE ARE EXPECTING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S.  AFTER SUNSET, THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE A LITTLE BIT AND THE GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.  ALL IN ALL, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING, IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING
OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF CANADA`S ATLANTIC PROVINCES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE TRACK OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND WIND
GUST SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE.  AS
A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 400 PM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 600 PM ON FRIDAY.  HOWEVER, THE ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AS WAVES MAY
TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET.

THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME, AND WE MAY AGAIN
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THE SITUATION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.  THE FLOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE
HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDE CYCLES.  WITH THAT IN MIND, WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY`S HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURS BETWEEN
1100 AM AND NOON ALONG THE OCEANFRONT.  TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND
ONE FOOT WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.  BASED ON THE
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW, THOSE DEPARTURES ARE ATTAINABLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO