000
FXUS63 KJKL 200311
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1111 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/...UPDATED

SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PREVALENT...AND TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT FALLING AS FAST AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO A BIT
HIGHER. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE RAISED 1ST PERIOD LOWS A COUPLE
DEGREES.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT/

SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY BUILT UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CU BUILT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG CAP AROUND 15K
FEET...WHICH KEPT PRECIP MINIMIZED. THE SHOWERS WILL DIE OUT WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIMMED VALLEY FOG BACK JUST A
BIT IN COVERAGE BASED ON THE SCENARIO FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
FOG SHOULD BE IN THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE CASE ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE NATION. FOR EAST
KENTUCKY THIS HAS MEANT ANOTHER RAIN FREE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM
SEPTEMBER DAY. A FEW CU WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH
THE BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING NORTHEAST...AND DISSIPATING...FROM
A WEAK SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM EDT HAD CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS HOVERED IN THE 50
TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE NEAREST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS JUST BRUSHING TENNESSEE...MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THEY
KEEP EAST KENTUCKY IN THE MIDDLE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE A DEEP
LOW CROSSES EASTERN CANADA. ALMOST LOST IN THE RIDGE IS A BIT OF LEFT
OVER ENERGY THAT CAME OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY
CONGEALS INTO A FLEETING...AND VERY MINOR...CLOSED LOW SEEPING
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. QUICKLY...
THOUGH...THIS FEATURE IS DAMPENED OUT BY THE MODELS DURING THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. BY MONDAY...
WHILE THE RIDGE HAS NOT REBUILT COMPLETELY...HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE THROUGH THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT BIG TROUGH ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. GIVEN THE CLOSE AGREEMENT EARLY ON...HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 FOR SPECIFICS DURING THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LEANING MORE TOWARD A ECMWF...FROM 00Z/19...AND GFS BLEND
THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A DRY AND MAINLY PERSISTENT FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE EXTENDED. MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS...MID LEVEL...CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THAT UPPER
LOW DISSOLVES OVERHEAD. DESPITE THE SPURIOUS PRINT OUT OF QPF FROM
THE NAM12...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST BONE DRY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
MARGINALLY AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM SO HAVE
ADJUSTED AWAY FROM PERSISTENCE...ACCORDINGLY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS AND A TAD MILDER NIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LESS CLOUDS ON
MONDAY WILL COMPETE WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA...AS ONE HIGH REPLACES ANOTHER...TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME.

THE MAV MOS NUMBERS FROM YESTERDAY ENDED UP TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY
SO HAVE BACKED OFF OF THEM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DID END UP
WARMER THAN THE MET AT MOST LOCATIONS. FOR LOWS MAINLY FOLLOWED A
MODIFIED PERSISTENCE MAINTAINING A NOTICEABLE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALSO THREW OUT THE TOO COOL
MAV AT LOZ. POPS REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HOLDS LITTLE HOPE FOR PCPN
MAKING INTO EAST KENTUCKY AS THE RIDGE...MENTIONED ABOVE...TILTS
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH PLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER PATTERN THUS FLATTENS OUT...
RIDGING WILL HOLD ON STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS THE NATION WHILE
THE WESTERLIES RACE BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF FROM 00Z/19 WAS
FOLLOWED CLOSEST GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE AND REASONABLE
SOLUTION. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT OF IT/S SOLUTION...THOUGH ONE NOT SO
MUCH RESOLVED IN THE GFS...WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS APPEARS TO FURTHER AMPLIFY
THE RIDGE TO ITS WEST...HAMMERING HOME THE IDEA OF A DRY EXTENDED FOR
OUR AREA. A QUICK PEEK AT THE 12Z ECMWF SEES IT CONTINUING THIS
TREND.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT IS AS IF THE WEATHER PATTERN IS COMING UP
WITH NEW WAYS TO KEEP EAST KENTUCKY DRY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE ANY
FRONT THAT MANAGES TO COME THROUGH HERE A DRY PASSAGE...AN UPPER
LOW...AND ITS WEAK SFC REFLECTION...TO THE WEST WILL FALL APART
BEFORE GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE US RAIN...AND FINALLY A
POTENTIAL EAST COAST SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL ONLY SERVE TO
KEEP OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENCE WHILE STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGING
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. IN THIS REGIME...AM LOATH TO FORECAST ANY PCPN.
AS A RESULT...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS CARRIED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE VAGARIES OF DRY FRONTS AND VARIOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH. THE ONLY HOPE I SEE FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAIN IS THE SEASONAL EXPECTATION OF THE WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY
PUSHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT US...BEYOND THE EXTENDED. UNTIL
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH END
OF TAF PERIOD. LATEST NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LOCKED UP IN A DECK OF SCATTERED
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD FURTHER RETARD FOG FORMATION AT THE TAF
SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEPING TOO MUCH OF A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
TO SUPPORT FOG FORMATION AT THE TAF SITES. MOST OF FOG THAT DOES FORM
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS...AND TO LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES
AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF/HAL
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS63 KLMK 200121
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
920 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008


.EVENING UPDATE...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
MISSOURI ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT CONVECTION IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AS CLOSE AS
OWENSBORO. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR RESIDES IN OUR AREA AND FEEL THAT
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STAY TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. PATCHY BROKEN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND WILL NOT ALLOW OUR
LOWS TO FALL QUITE AS LOW AS THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...HAVE WARMED THEM A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORMALLY COOL SPOTS ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS AND THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA.



&&



.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

CLOUD COVER SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH A CLEARING OUT IN THE BLUEGRASS
REGION OVERNIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME UPPER 40S OUT THERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO MISSOURI TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
TO THE NORTH THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

LATEST MODELS SHOW TROUGHING OVER MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY AT THE START OT THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WITH THIS TROUGH
GIVING WAY TO RIDGING BY SUNDAY EVENING. SOME FORECAST MODELS TRY
TO BRING A LITTLE PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE TO OUR WEST.
THIS LOOKS IFFY AT BEST AND WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS TRIES TO BRING A FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE THE PREFERRED ECMWF KEEPS
THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. THUS OUR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL FAIR-WEATHER CU WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT AFTER 15Z TOMORROW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.



&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...JSD
LONG TERM....SCHOLZ
AVIATION.....JSD

000
FXUS63 KJKL 200019
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/...UPDATED

SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY BUILT UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CU BUILT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR PRECIP...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG CAP AROUND 15K
FEET...WHICH KEPT PRECIP MINIMIZED. THE SHOWERS WILL DIE OUT WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIMMED VALLEY FOG BACK JUST A
BIT IN COVERAGE BASED ON THE SCENARIO FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
FOG SHOULD BE IN THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO BE
THE CASE ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE NATION. FOR EAST
KENTUCKY THIS HAS MEANT ANOTHER RAIN FREE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM
SEPTEMBER DAY. A FEW CU WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH
THE BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING NORTHEAST...AND DISSIPATING...FROM
A WEAK SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM EDT HAD CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS HOVERED IN THE 50
TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE NEAREST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS JUST BRUSHING TENNESSEE...MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THEY
KEEP EAST KENTUCKY IN THE MIDDLE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE A DEEP
LOW CROSSES EASTERN CANADA. ALMOST LOST IN THE RIDGE IS A BIT OF LEFT
OVER ENERGY THAT CAME OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY
CONGEALS INTO A FLEETING...AND VERY MINOR...CLOSED LOW SEEPING
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. QUICKLY...
THOUGH...THIS FEATURE IS DAMPENED OUT BY THE MODELS DURING THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. BY MONDAY...
WHILE THE RIDGE HAS NOT REBUILT COMPLETELY...HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE THROUGH THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT BIG TROUGH ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. GIVEN THE CLOSE AGREEMENT EARLY ON...HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 FOR SPECIFICS DURING THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LEANING MORE TOWARD A ECMWF...FROM 00Z/19...AND GFS BLEND
THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A DRY AND MAINLY PERSISTENT FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE EXTENDED. MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS...MID LEVEL...CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THAT UPPER
LOW DISSOLVES OVERHEAD. DESPITE THE SPURIOUS PRINT OUT OF QPF FROM
THE NAM12...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST BONE DRY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
MARGINALLY AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM SO HAVE
ADJUSTED AWAY FROM PERSISTENCE...ACCORDINGLY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS AND A TAD MILDER NIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LESS CLOUDS ON
MONDAY WILL COMPETE WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA...AS ONE HIGH REPLACES ANOTHER...TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME.

THE MAV MOS NUMBERS FROM YESTERDAY ENDED UP TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY
SO HAVE BACKED OFF OF THEM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DID END UP
WARMER THAN THE MET AT MOST LOCATIONS. FOR LOWS MAINLY FOLLOWED A
MODIFIED PERSISTENCE MAINTAINING A NOTICEABLE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALSO THREW OUT THE TOO COOL
MAV AT LOZ. POPS REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HOLDS LITTLE HOPE FOR PCPN
MAKING INTO EAST KENTUCKY AS THE RIDGE...MENTIONED ABOVE...TILTS
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH PLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER PATTERN THUS FLATTENS OUT...
RIDGING WILL HOLD ON STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS THE NATION WHILE
THE WESTERLIES RACE BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF FROM 00Z/19 WAS
FOLLOWED CLOSEST GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE AND REASONABLE
SOLUTION. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT OF IT/S SOLUTION...THOUGH ONE NOT SO
MUCH RESOLVED IN THE GFS...WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS APPEARS TO FURTHER AMPLIFY
THE RIDGE TO ITS WEST...HAMMERING HOME THE IDEA OF A DRY EXTENDED FOR
OUR AREA. A QUICK PEEK AT THE 12Z ECMWF SEES IT CONTINUING THIS
TREND.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT IS AS IF THE WEATHER PATTERN IS COMING UP
WITH NEW WAYS TO KEEP EAST KENTUCKY DRY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE ANY
FRONT THAT MANAGES TO COME THROUGH HERE A DRY PASSAGE...AN UPPER
LOW...AND ITS WEAK SFC REFLECTION...TO THE WEST WILL FALL APART
BEFORE GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE US RAIN...AND FINALLY A
POTENTIAL EAST COAST SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL ONLY SERVE TO
KEEP OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENCE WHILE STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGING
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. IN THIS REGIME...AM LOATH TO FORECAST ANY PCPN.
AS A RESULT...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS CARRIED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE VAGARIES OF DRY FRONTS AND VARIOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH. THE ONLY HOPE I SEE FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAIN IS THE SEASONAL EXPECTATION OF THE WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY
PUSHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT US...BEYOND THE EXTENDED. UNTIL
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH END
OF TAF PERIOD. LATEST NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LOCKED UP IN A DECK OF SCATTERED
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD FURTHER RETARD FOG FORMATION AT THE TAF
SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEPING TOO MUCH OF A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
TO SUPPORT FOG FORMATION AT THE TAF SITES. MOST OF FOG THAT DOES FORM
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS...AND TO LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES
AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF/HAL
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS63 KJKL 192327
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
727 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE NATION. FOR EAST
KENTUCKY THIS HAS MEANT ANOTHER RAIN FREE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM
SEPTEMBER DAY. A FEW CU WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH
THE BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING NORTHEAST...AND DISSIPATING...FROM
A WEAK SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM EDT HAD CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS HOVERED IN THE 50
TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE NEAREST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS JUST BRUSHING TENNESSEE...MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THEY
KEEP EAST KENTUCKY IN THE MIDDLE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE A DEEP
LOW CROSSES EASTERN CANADA. ALMOST LOST IN THE RIDGE IS A BIT OF LEFT
OVER ENERGY THAT CAME OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY
CONGEALS INTO A FLEETING...AND VERY MINOR...CLOSED LOW SEEPING
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. QUICKLY...
THOUGH...THIS FEATURE IS DAMPENED OUT BY THE MODELS DURING THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. BY MONDAY...
WHILE THE RIDGE HAS NOT REBUILT COMPLETELY...HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE THROUGH THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT BIG TROUGH ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. GIVEN THE CLOSE AGREEMENT EARLY ON...HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 FOR SPECIFICS DURING THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LEANING MORE TOWARD A ECMWF...FROM 00Z/19...AND GFS BLEND
THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A DRY AND MAINLY PERSISTENT FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE EXTENDED. MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS...MID LEVEL...CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THAT UPPER
LOW DISSOLVES OVERHEAD. DESPITE THE SPURIOUS PRINT OUT OF QPF FROM
THE NAM12...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST BONE DRY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
MARGINALLY AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM SO HAVE
ADJUSTED AWAY FROM PERSISTENCE...ACCORDINGLY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS AND A TAD MILDER NIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LESS CLOUDS ON
MONDAY WILL COMPETE WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA...AS ONE HIGH REPLACES ANOTHER...TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME.

THE MAV MOS NUMBERS FROM YESTERDAY ENDED UP TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY
SO HAVE BACKED OFF OF THEM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DID END UP
WARMER THAN THE MET AT MOST LOCATIONS. FOR LOWS MAINLY FOLLOWED A
MODIFIED PERSISTENCE MAINTAINING A NOTICEABLE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALSO THREW OUT THE TOO COOL
MAV AT LOZ. POPS REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HOLDS LITTLE HOPE FOR PCPN
MAKING INTO EAST KENTUCKY AS THE RIDGE...MENTIONED ABOVE...TILTS
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH PLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER PATTERN THUS FLATTENS OUT...
RIDGING WILL HOLD ON STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS THE NATION WHILE
THE WESTERLIES RACE BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF FROM 00Z/19 WAS
FOLLOWED CLOSEST GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE AND REASONABLE
SOLUTION. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT OF IT/S SOLUTION...THOUGH ONE NOT SO
MUCH RESOLVED IN THE GFS...WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS APPEARS TO FURTHER AMPLIFY
THE RIDGE TO ITS WEST...HAMMERING HOME THE IDEA OF A DRY EXTENDED FOR
OUR AREA. A QUICK PEEK AT THE 12Z ECMWF SEES IT CONTINUING THIS
TREND.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT IS AS IF THE WEATHER PATTERN IS COMING UP
WITH NEW WAYS TO KEEP EAST KENTUCKY DRY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE ANY
FRONT THAT MANAGES TO COME THROUGH HERE A DRY PASSAGE...AN UPPER
LOW...AND ITS WEAK SFC REFLECTION...TO THE WEST WILL FALL APART
BEFORE GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE US RAIN...AND FINALLY A
POTENTIAL EAST COAST SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL ONLY SERVE TO
KEEP OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENCE WHILE STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGING
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. IN THIS REGIME...AM LOATH TO FORECAST ANY PCPN.
AS A RESULT...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS CARRIED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE VAGARIES OF DRY FRONTS AND VARIOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH. THE ONLY HOPE I SEE FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAIN IS THE SEASONAL EXPECTATION OF THE WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY
PUSHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT US...BEYOND THE EXTENDED. UNTIL
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH END
OF TAF PERIOD. LATEST NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LOCKED UP IN A DECK OF SCATTERED
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD FURTHER RETARD FOG FORMATION AT THE TAF
SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO KEEPING TOO MUCH OF A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
TO SUPPORT FOG FORMATION AT THE TAF SITES. MOST OF FOG THAT DOES FORM
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPEST AND MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS...AND TO LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES
AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS63 KPAH 192324 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.UPDATED...
FOR 00Z AVIATION PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...LIFT WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH NAM AND GFS TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE STRONG MID LEVEL UPWARD MOTION TONIGHT OVER
SE MISSOURI. WHILE THE ACTUAL VALUES APPEAR SUSPICIOUSLY HIGH DUE TO
THE BULLSEYE SHAPE OF THE CONTOURS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE MODELS DEPICT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BENEATH THE 500 MB LOW. THE 12Z NAM EVEN SHOWS A WEAK 850 MB LOW
FORMING OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NE ARKANSAS/FAR WEST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
SE MISSOURI TONIGHT. A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER
WESTERN KY AND SE ILLINOIS. PARTS OF SW INDIANA AND WESTERN KY WILL
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. SINCE THE LOW WILL MAKE LITTLE EASTWARD
PROGRESS...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF
SE MISSOURI. AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REACH THE KHOP/KOWB AREAS DURING THE DAY. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE 500 MB
LOW BEGINS TO SHEAR APART OVER MISSOURI. ON SUNDAY...AT LEAST A
SMALL POP WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH
LIFT ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TIMING OF 500 MB SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. WEAK COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL DISSIPATE OR STALL AS THEY APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. WHILE THE LONG TERM
APPEARS MAINLY DRY...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH ANY WEAKENING COLD FRONTS. FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY UNLESS OR UNTIL MODELS HONE IN ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGHEST CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...THROUGH 04Z...WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A CERTAINTY
AT THE CGI SITE EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL FLIRT WITH THE PAH
AREA. AFT 06Z...THINK CONVECTION WILL STAY MOSTLY WEST OF THE CGI
AREA. EVV AND OWB SITES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...GM

000
FXUS63 KLMK 192312
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
710 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

CLOUD COVER SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH A CLEARING OUT IN THE BLUEGRASS
REGION OVERNIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME UPPER 40S OUT THERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO MISSOURI TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
TO THE NORTH THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

LATEST MODELS SHOW TROUGHING OVER MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY AT THE START OT THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WITH THIS TROUGH
GIVING WAY TO RIDGING BY SUNDAY EVENING. SOME FORECAST MODELS TRY
TO BRING A LITTLE PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE TO OUR WEST.
THIS LOOKS IFFY AT BEST AND WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS TRIES TO BRING A FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE THE PREFERRED ECMWF KEEPS
THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. THUS OUR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL FAIR-WEATHER CU WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT AFTER 15Z TOMORROW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.



&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...JSD
LONG TERM....SCHOLZ
AVIATION.....JSD

000
FXUS63 KJKL 191940 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE NATION. FOR EAST
KENTUCKY THIS HAS MEANT ANOTHER RAIN FREE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM
SEPTEMBER DAY. A FEW CU WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH
THE BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING NORTHEAST...AND DISSIPATING...FROM
A WEAK SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST...IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM EDT HAD CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS HOVERED IN THE 50
TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. THE NEAREST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS JUST BRUSHING TENNESSEE...MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THEY
KEEP EAST KENTUCKY IN THE MIDDLE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE A DEEP
LOW CROSSES EASTERN CANADA. ALMOST LOST IN THE RIDGE IS A BIT OF LEFT
OVER ENERGY THAT CAME OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY
CONGEALS INTO A FLEETING...AND VERY MINOR...CLOSED LOW SEEPING
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. QUICKLY...
THOUGH...THIS FEATURE IS DAMPENED OUT BY THE MODELS DURING THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. BY MONDAY...
WHILE THE RIDGE HAS NOT REBUILT COMPLETELY...HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE THROUGH THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT BIG TROUGH ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. GIVEN THE CLOSE AGREEMENT EARLY ON...HAVE
FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 FOR SPECIFICS DURING THE WEEKEND
BEFORE LEANING MORE TOWARD A ECMWF...FROM 00Z/19...AND GFS BLEND
THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A DRY AND MAINLY PERSISTENT FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE EXTENDED. MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS...MID LEVEL...CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THAT UPPER
LOW DISSOLVES OVERHEAD. DESPITE THE SPURIOUS PRINT OUT OF QPF FROM
THE NAM12...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST BONE DRY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
MARGINALLY AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM SO HAVE
ADJUSTED AWAY FROM PERSISTENCE...ACCORDINGLY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS AND A TAD MILDER NIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LESS CLOUDS ON
MONDAY WILL COMPETE WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA...AS ONE HIGH REPLACES ANOTHER...TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME.

THE MAV MOS NUMBERS FROM YESTERDAY ENDED UP TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY
SO HAVE BACKED OFF OF THEM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DID END UP
WARMER THAN THE MET AT MOST LOCATIONS. FOR LOWS MAINLY FOLLOWED A
MODIFIED PERSISTENCE MAINTAINING A NOTICEABLE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALSO THREW OUT THE TOO COOL
MAV AT LOZ. POPS REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HOLDS LITTLE HOPE FOR PCPN
MAKING INTO EAST KENTUCKY AS THE RIDGE...MENTIONED ABOVE...TILTS
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH PLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER PATTERN THUS FLATTENS OUT...
RIDGING WILL HOLD ON STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS THE NATION WHILE
THE WESTERLIES RACE BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF FROM 00Z/19 WAS
FOLLOWED CLOSEST GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE AND REASONABLE
SOLUTION. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT OF IT/S SOLUTION...THOUGH ONE NOT SO
MUCH RESOLVED IN THE GFS...WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MIDWEEK ON. THIS APPEARS TO FURTHER AMPLIFY
THE RIDGE TO ITS WEST...HAMMERING HOME THE IDEA OF A DRY EXTENDED FOR
OUR AREA. A QUICK PEEK AT THE 12Z ECMWF SEES IT CONTINUING THIS
TREND.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT IS AS IF THE WEATHER PATTERN IS COMING UP
WITH NEW WAYS TO KEEP EAST KENTUCKY DRY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE ANY
FRONT THAT MANAGES TO COME THROUGH HERE A DRY PASSAGE...AN UPPER
LOW...AND ITS WEAK SFC REFLECTION...TO THE WEST WILL FALL APART
BEFORE GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE US RAIN...AND FINALLY A
POTENTIAL EAST COAST SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL ONLY SERVE TO
KEEP OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENCE WHILE STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGING
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. IN THIS REGIME...AM LOATH TO FORECAST ANY PCPN.
AS A RESULT...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS CARRIED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE VAGARIES OF DRY FRONTS AND VARIOUS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH. THE ONLY HOPE I SEE FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAIN IS THE SEASONAL EXPECTATION OF THE WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY
PUSHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT US...BEYOND THE EXTENDED. UNTIL
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIFR FOG NEAR THE MAJOR RIVERS OF EAST
KENTUCKY DURING THE EARLY MORNING LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG WILL
NOT BE AT THE TAF SITES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL OTHERWISE
SPREAD CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GV

000
FXUS63 KLMK 191901
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
301 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

CLOUD COVER SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH A CLEARING OUT IN THE BLUEGRASS
REGION OVERNIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME UPPER 40S OUT THERE.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO MISSOURI TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
TO THE NORTH THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

LATEST MODELS SHOW TROUGHING OVER MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY AT THE START OT THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WITH THIS TROUGH
GIVING WAY TO RIDGING BY SUNDAY EVENING. SOME FORECAST MODELS TRY
TO BRING A LITTLE PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE TO OUR WEST.
THIS LOOKS IFFY AT BEST AND WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS TRIES TO BRING A FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE THE PREFERRED ECMWF KEEPS
THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. THUS OUR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
THOUGH THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
UNTIL AFTER 18Z. THUS...WILL KEEP SHOWER MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS
WITH PREVAILING VFR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM....SCHOLZ
AVIATION.....MACZKO

000
FXUS63 KPAH 191739
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...LIFT WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH NAM AND GFS TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE STRONG MID LEVEL UPWARD MOTION TONIGHT OVER
SE MISSOURI. WHILE THE ACTUAL VALUES APPEAR SUSPICIOUSLY HIGH DUE TO
THE BULLSEYE SHAPE OF THE CONTOURS...THERE WILL BE INCREASED FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE MODELS DEPICT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BENEATH THE 500 MB LOW. THE 12Z NAM EVEN SHOWS A WEAK 850 MB LOW
FORMING OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NE ARKANSAS/FAR WEST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
SE MISSOURI TONIGHT. A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER
WESTERN KY AND SE ILLINOIS. PARTS OF SW INDIANA AND WESTERN KY WILL
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. SINCE THE LOW WILL MAKE LITTLE EASTWARD
PROGRESS...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF
SE MISSOURI. AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REACH THE KHOP/KOWB AREAS DURING THE DAY. THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE 500 MB
LOW BEGINS TO SHEAR APART OVER MISSOURI. ON SUNDAY...AT LEAST A
SMALL POP WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH
LIFT ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TIMING OF 500 MB SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. WEAK COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL DISSIPATE OR STALL AS THEY APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. WHILE THE LONG TERM
APPEARS MAINLY DRY...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH ANY WEAKENING COLD FRONTS. FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY UNLESS OR UNTIL MODELS HONE IN ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
SATURDAY. MVFR VISIBILITIES AND RW/TRW ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 05-10Z
SATURDAY FOR KCGI AND KPAH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST OR CALM.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...JAP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 191738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

VERY LITTLE CHANGE NECESSARY TO FORECASTS. MIXING TO 800 MB WILL
PRODUCE MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND DO NOT BELIEVE
THE CIRRUS COMING IN WILL HOLD THEM DOWN. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY IS STILL APPLICABLE AND WILL NOT UPDATE ZONES. MOISTURE ON
12Z BNA SOUNDING IS TOO LIMITED TO SUGGEST A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
WILL HAVE WEAK FLOW OFF OF THE APPALACHIANS ANYWAY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...AN EXPANSIVE AND RATHER STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US...WITH
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS. FURTHER WEST A
WEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER OK/KS BORDER. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS THEN FALLING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN
MEANDER TO NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AT THE SAME TIME AND BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

THIS SCENARIO LEADS TO MAINLY A CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL
FOR MAX T GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND SUSPECT THAT THE SAME WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT AND SUN AS WELL. DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WELL ALOFT IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS AND IN THE 850
TO 700 MB LAYER TODAY...FEEL THAT PERSISTENCE OF THU AFTERNOON HIGHS
OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IS IN ORDER. MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH. THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A SMALLER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER MIN T ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A LARGER RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 TO 700 MB ALONG
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS ABOVE THAT LEVEL WILL LINGER WELL INTO SAT AS
WELL PER MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO
SHALLOW AND THE UPPER LOW TOO FAR WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY SHOWERS...BUT
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY/S
READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW. LESS IN THE WAY OF 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON
SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT...SO THE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR SUN MAX T.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

LARGELY RELIED ON HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AND KEPT CLOUD COVER AT A
MINIMUM. COMFORTABLE DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN...SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
ONLY CHANGE THIS AM WAS TO LOWER MAX T A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD MORE RECENT MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC NUMBERS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DRY GROUND FROM ONGOING DROUGHT OPTED FOR ABOUT TWO
TO THREE DEGREE ABOVE GUIDANCE ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIFR FOG NEAR THE MAJOR RIVERS OF EAST
KENTUCKY DURING THE EARLY MORNING LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FOG WILL
NOT BE AT THE TAF SITES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL OTHERWISE
SPREAD CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP/GV
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...GV
FIRE WEATHER...GV

000
FXUS63 KLMK 191703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON THE WV SATELLITE LOOP. THIS WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CIRRUS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THIS
CIRRUS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST
VIRGINIA WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. EXCEPT FOR THE INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE THURSDAY. WE SEE NO REASON
WHY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY AND WILL ADJUST
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES. AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
BE NOTED AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

LATEST SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN H5 TROF AXIS APPROACHING THE
REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A INFLUX OF MODIFIED GULF
AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT LIFT AND FOCUSING MECHANISMS STILL LOOK
RATHER DISORGANIZED ATTM. THE 00Z GFS RUNS KEEP BEST PRECIP
CHANCES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT MORE
BULLISH IN GENERATING PRECIPITATION AS FAR EAST AS I-65.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE OP NCEP MODELS...TOOK A GOOD LOOK AT
THE 18/15Z AND 18/21Z SREF ENSEMBLES. SEVERAL OF THE SREF MEMBERS
DO INDEED PAINT SOME QPF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FA...BUT
THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS SUGGEST
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. THUS...WILL
KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WILL INCREASE CLOUD
COVER A BIT.

THE MODELS THEN LIFT THE H5 TROF OFF THE NE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH H5 HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING RIGHT OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS
SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
THOUGH THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
UNTIL AFTER 18Z. THUS...WILL KEEP SHOWER MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS
WITH PREVAILING VFR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MACZKO

000
FXUS63 KJKL 191415
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1015 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

VERY LITTLE CHANGE NECESSARY TO FORECASTS. MIXING TO 800 MB WILL
PRODUCE MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND DO NOT BELIEVE
THE CIRRUS COMING IN WILL HOLD THEM DOWN. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY IS STILL APPLICABLE AND WILL NOT UPDATE ZONES. MOISTURE ON
12Z BNA SOUNDING IS TOO LIMITED TO SUGGEST A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
WILL HAVE WEAK FLOW OFF OF THE APPALACHIANS ANYWAY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...AN EXPANSIVE AND RATHER STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US...WITH
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS. FURTHER WEST A
WEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER OK/KS BORDER. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS THEN FALLING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN
MEANDER TO NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AT THE SAME TIME AND BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

THIS SCENARIO LEADS TO MAINLY A CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL
FOR MAX T GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND SUSPECT THAT THE SAME WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT AND SUN AS WELL. DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WELL ALOFT IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS AND IN THE 850
TO 700 MB LAYER TODAY...FEEL THAT PERSISTENCE OF THU AFTERNOON HIGHS
OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IS IN ORDER. MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH. THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A SMALLER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER MIN T ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A LARGER RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 TO 700 MB ALONG
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS ABOVE THAT LEVEL WILL LINGER WELL INTO SAT AS
WELL PER MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO
SHALLOW AND THE UPPER LOW TOO FAR WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY SHOWERS...BUT
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY/S
READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW. LESS IN THE WAY OF 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON
SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT...SO THE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR SUN MAX T.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

LARGELY RELIED ON HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AND KEPT CLOUD COVER AT A
MINIMUM. COMFORTABLE DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN...SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
ONLY CHANGE THIS AM WAS TO LOWER MAX T A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD MORE RECENT MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC NUMBERS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DRY GROUND FROM ONGOING DROUGHT OPTED FOR ABOUT TWO
TO THREE DEGREE ABOVE GUIDANCE ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

BESIDES A FEW AFTERNOON CU AS WELL AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIFR RIVER
VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE SEEN AT ANY
OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP/GV
LONG TERM....RLX/HAL/JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KPAH 191131 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.UPDATE...
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z FRIDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
SATURDAY. MVFR VISIBILITY IS FORECAST BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY FOR
KCGI...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED VALUES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z AND
07Z SATURDAY IN THE KCGI AND KPAH TAF SITES...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

DISCUSSION...

ALL MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER TONIGHT-SATURDAY. WE LOOK UPSTREAM
AND SEE SATURATION DOWN TO ABOUT 5-6K FEET...AND THIS AREA WILL
LIFT OVERHEAD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE`VE THEREFORE FOLLOWED
OUR INHERITED CHANGES W/POPS AND ONLY TWEEKED TO THE LATEST
NOS...ALBEIT SHY OF MOS AT THAT. IT FITS THE COLLAB PIC REASONABLY
WELL...WHICH MEANS BEST POPS WEST TO LEAST EAST.

BY SAT NIGHT THE MOISTURE HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
HEIGHT FALLS HAVE WANED SO WE REMOVED POPS DESPITE A HINT THAT
MAYBE A 20 OR SO COULD BE LEFT A LITTLE LONGER. INSTEAD WE WAIT
TIL SUN AND GO WITH ANOTHER SMALL POP TIL THE LOW FILLS AND DRIER
AIR IS DRAGGED DOWN THE COLUMN.

BEYOND DAY 4 WERE NO CHANGES. WITH THE MOVE TOWARD THE WETTER NAM
WE LIKEWISE STARTED EDGING OUR MOS TEMPS/TDS THAT WAY AS
WELL...WHICH WAS THE BEST COLLAB FIT.

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KCGI AND MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KPAH
THRU 12Z FRIDAY...KEPT THE CURRENT VISIBILITY FORECAST IN PLACE.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ON-GOING FORECAST...EXCEPT TO
ADD THE MID CLOUD CEILINGS TO KCGI/KPAH AND A CIRRUS DECK TO
KEVV/KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...SMITH

000
FXUS63 KJKL 191104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...AN EXPANSIVE AND RATHER STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US...WITH
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS. FURTHER WEST A
WEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER OK/KS BORDER. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS THEN FALLING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN
MEANDER TO NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AT THE SAME TIME AND BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

THIS SCENARIO LEADS TO MAINLY A CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL
FOR MAX T GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND SUSPECT THAT THE SAME WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT AND SUN AS WELL. DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WELL ALOFT IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS AND IN THE 850
TO 700 MB LAYER TODAY...FEEL THAT PERSISTENCE OF THU AFTERNOON HIGHS
OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IS IN ORDER. MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH. THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A SMALLER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER MIN T ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A LARGER RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 TO 700 MB ALONG
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS ABOVE THAT LEVEL WILL LINGER WELL INTO SAT AS
WELL PER MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO
SHALLOW AND THE UPPER LOW TOO FAR WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY SHOWERS...BUT
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY/S
READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW. LESS IN THE WAY OF 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON
SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT...SO THE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR SUN MAX T.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

LARGELY RELIED ON HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AND KEPT CLOUD COVER AT A
MINIMUM. COMFORTABLE DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN...SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
ONLY CHANGE THIS AM WAS TO LOWER MAX T A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD MORE RECENT MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC NUMBERS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DRY GROUND FROM ONGOING DROUGHT OPTED FOR ABOUT TWO
TO THREE DEGREE ABOVE GUIDANCE ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

BESIDES A FEW AFTERNOON CU AS WELL AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIFR RIVER
VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE SEEN AT ANY
OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....RLX/HAL/JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KLMK 191027
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING AS SEEN ON THE WV SATELLITE LOOP. THIS WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CIRRUS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THIS CIRRUS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WITH A DRY EASTERLY
FLOW. EXCEPT FOR THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE
THURSDAY. WE SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY AND WILL ADJUST CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL
DEGREES. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE NOTED AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS
COOL AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

LATEST SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN H5 TROF AXIS APPROACHING THE
REGION BY SATURDAY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A INFLUX OF MODIFIED GULF AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT LIFT AND FOCUSING MECHANISMS STILL LOOK RATHER
DISORGANIZED ATTM.  THE 00Z GFS RUNS KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT MORE BULLISH IN
GENERATING PRECIPITATION AS FAR EAST AS I-65.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE OP NCEP MODELS...TOOK A GOOD LOOK AT
THE 18/15Z AND 18/21Z SREF ENSEMBLES.  SEVERAL OF THE SREF MEMBERS
DO INDEED PAINT SOME QPF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FA...BUT THE
OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS SUGGEST VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.  THUS...WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER A
BIT.

THE MODELS THEN LIFT THE H5 TROF OFF THE NE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH H5 HEIGHT RISES OCCURING RIGHT OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.  HIGHS
SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
REGION WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....MRJ
AVIATION.....JA

000
FXUS63 KPAH 190717
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
217 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

ALL MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER TONIGHT-SATURDAY. WE LOOK UPSTREAM
AND SEE SATURATION DOWN TO ABOUT 5-6K FEET...AND THIS AREA WILL
LIFT OVERHEAD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE`VE THEREFORE FOLLOWED
OUR INHERITED CHANGES W/POPS AND ONLY TWEEKED TO THE LATEST
NOS...ALBEIT SHY OF MOS AT THAT. IT FITS THE COLLAB PIC REASONABLY
WELL...WHICH MEANS BEST POPS WEST TO LEAST EAST.

BY SAT NIGHT THE MOISTURE HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
HEIGHT FALLS HAVE WANED SO WE REMOVED POPS DESPITE A HINT THAT
MAYBE A 20 OR SO COULD BE LEFT A LITTLE LONGER. INSTEAD WE WAIT
TIL SUN AND GO WITH ANOTHER SMALL POP TIL THE LOW FILLS AND DRIER
AIR IS DRAGGED DOWN THE COLUMN.

BEYOND DAY 4 WERE NO CHANGES. WITH THE MOVE TOWARD THE WETTER NAM
WE LIKEWISE STARTED EDGING OUR MOS TEMPS/TDS THAT WAY AS
WELL...WHICH WAS THE BEST COLLAB FIT.

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KCGI AND MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KPAH
THRU 12Z FRIDAY...KEPT THE CURRENT VISIBILITY FORECAST IN PLACE.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ON-GOING FORECAST...EXCEPT TO
ADD THE MID CLOUD CEILINGS TO KCGI/KPAH AND A CIRRUS DECK TO
KEVV/KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 190713
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
313 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...AN EXPANSIVE AND RATHER STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US...WITH
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS. FURTHER WEST A
WEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER OK/KS BORDER. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS THEN FALLING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN
MEANDER TO NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AT THE SAME TIME AND BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

THIS SCENARIO LEADS TO MAINLY A CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL
FOR MAX T GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND SUSPECT THAT THE SAME WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT AND SUN AS WELL. DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WELL ALOFT IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS AND IN THE 850
TO 700 MB LAYER TODAY...FEEL THAT PERSISTENCE OF THU AFTERNOON HIGHS
OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IS IN ORDER. MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH. THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A SMALLER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER MIN T ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A LARGER RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 TO 700 MB ALONG
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS ABOVE THAT LEVEL WILL LINGER WELL INTO SAT AS
WELL PER MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO
SHALLOW AND THE UPPER LOW TOO FAR WEST OF THE AREA FOR ANY SHOWERS...BUT
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY/S
READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW. LESS IN THE WAY OF 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON
SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT...SO THE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR SUN MAX T.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

LARGELY RELIED ON HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AND KEPT CLOUD COVER AT A
MINIMUM. COMFORTABLE DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN...SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
ONLY CHANGE THIS AM WAS TO LOWER MAX T A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD MORE RECENT MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC NUMBERS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DRY GROUND FROM ONGOING DROUGHT OPTED FOR ABOUT TWO
TO THREE DEGREE ABOVE GUIDANCE ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE MARJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VLIFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE SEEN
AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...RLX/HAL/JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KLMK 190626
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING AS SEEN ON THE WV SATELLITE LOOP. THIS WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CIRRUS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THIS CIRRUS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WITH A DRY EASTERLY
FLOW. EXCEPT FOR THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE
THURSDAY. WE SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY AND WILL ADJUST CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL
DEGREES. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE NOTED AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS
COOL AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

LATEST SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THE NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN H5 TROF AXIS APPROACHING THE
REGION BY SATURDAY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A INFLUX OF MODIFIED GULF AIR
INTO THE REGION...BUT LIFT AND FOCUSING MECHANISMS STILL LOOK RATHER
DISORGANIZED ATTM.  THE 00Z GFS RUNS KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT MORE BULLISH IN
GENERATING PRECIPITATION AS FAR EAST AS I-65.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE OP NCEP MODELS...TOOK A GOOD LOOK AT
THE 18/15Z AND 18/21Z SREF ENSEMBLES.  SEVERAL OF THE SREF MEMBERS
DO INDEED PAINT SOME QPF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FA...BUT THE
OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS SUGGEST VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.  THUS...WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER A
BIT.

THE MODELS THEN LIFT THE H5 TROF OFF THE NE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH H5 HEIGHT RISES OCCURING RIGHT OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.  HIGHS
SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION
WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....MRJ
AVIATION.....JA

000
FXUS63 KPAH 190548 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1248 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.UPDATE...
DISCUSSION FOR 06Z FRIDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KCGI AND MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KPAH
BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z FRIDAY...KEPT THE CURRENT VISIBILITY FORECAST
IN PLACE.

NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ON-GOING FORECAST...EXCEPT TO
ADD THE MID CLOUD CEILINGS TO KCGI/KPAH AND A CIRRUS DECK TO
KEVV/KOWB.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER
LATEST SAT PIX SHOWING A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...IT WEAKENS AND STALLS OUT. AS A RESULT...
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCE FOR POPS/QPF FOR THOSE
TIME FRAMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. POPS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY POP CHANCES DONT LOOK AS GOOD AS UPPER
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKER AND NO LONGER PROVIDING AS MUCH LIFT
THROUGH THE COLUMN...SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER RUNS TRY AND GENERATE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP
FOR THESE PERIODS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER TROF
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST...SO THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...SINCE MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE...JUST WENT
WITH A BLEND.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A DRY EAST WIND
FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KCGI. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH ANY CIGS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE 15K.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...SMITH

000
FXUS63 KJKL 190540
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
140 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WEATHER. STRATOCU HAS
DRIED UP...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. CIRRUS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS
APPROACHING...BUT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET HERE UNTIL TOWARD DAWN OR ON
FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED FOG WORDING...USING AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE IT SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT AGAIN...AND
USING PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AS OF 18Z WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A LINE FRM
KPKB...WESTWARD TO KCVG. LATEST VIS SHOWS A BAND OF STRATOCU
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...GETTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
CWA. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH ANY STRATOCU
DISSIPATING BY 00Z. MAIN FCST CONUNDRUM REMAINS EXTENT OF FG
TOWARD DAWN. THIS MORNINGS VIS SHOWED MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FG
WAS LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF K-80...INCLUDING K1AG AND K5I3 IN
PIKE CO. HOWEVER...WITH BUFKIT SHOWING BL WINDS ARND 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT...FG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SHELTERED/DEEPEST VALLEYS
LIFTING BY 14Z.

H5 RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRI...PROVIDING
PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS OVER NORTH.
12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW H5 LOW CLOSING OFF /TO VARYING DEGREES/ JUST
EAST OF OZARKS BY END OF FCST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DEPICT A BAND OF
H3 MOIST EJECTING NE FROM H5 LOW ON FRI...REACHING CWA FRI NIGHT.
INCREASED SKY INTO P/C RANGE FOR CIRRUS...WITH MID LEVEL CLDS
LAGGING BEHIND.

FOR TMPS...BASED MINT ON LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE EARLY. COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AROUND ONGOING FCSTED MAXT FOR FRI...WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO INCREASE INSERTED OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

HAVE ADJUSTED THE FOG FORECAST AS WAS DONE FOR THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
USED AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE IT SHOULD BE
MOST PREVALENT AGAIN...AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT A LARGER
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VALLEYS AND RIDGES...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE IS
NOT NECESSARILY REFLECTED IN THE MORE GENERALIZED ZFP AT THIS LONGER
TIME RANGE.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MADE THE CLOUD FORECASTING PARTICULARLY
DIFFICULT. WITH THIS NOT BEING AN OVERLY STRONG FEATURE...MODELS DO
SEEM TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHERE TO THROW THE MOISTURE. APPEARS THAT A
MODEST BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CLOUDS. HIGH LEVEL
PATCHY CIRRUS LOOKS REASONABLE DURING THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH IN ANY LAYER FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.

LARGELY RELIED ON HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AND KEPT CLOUD COVER AT A
MINIMUM. COMFORTABLE DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN...SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE MARJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VLIFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE SEEN
AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/HAL
LONG TERM....26/HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KLMK 190501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WHAT OCCURRED TODAY. SOME INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
DAYTIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER
PATTERN QUIET AND UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN
UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAMES. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN THE DAY TIME AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WITH
COOL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
OVERALL...ANOTHER DAY OF MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION
WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...JSD
LONG TERM....MACZKO
AVIATION.....JA

000
FXUS63 KJKL 190121
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
921 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/...UPDATED

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WEATHER. STRATOCU HAS
DRIED UP...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. CIRRUS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS
APPROACHING...BUT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET HERE UNTIL TOWARD DAWN OR ON
FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED FOG WORDING...USING AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE IT SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT AGAIN...AND
USING PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AS OF 18Z WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A LINE FRM
KPKB...WESTWARD TO KCVG. LATEST VIS SHOWS A BAND OF STRATOCU
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...GETTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
CWA. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH ANY STRATOCU
DISSIPATING BY 00Z. MAIN FCST CONUNDRUM REMAINS EXTENT OF FG
TOWARD DAWN. THIS MORNINGS VIS SHOWED MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FG
WAS LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF K-80...INCLUDING K1AG AND K5I3 IN
PIKE CO. HOWEVER...WITH BUFKIT SHOWING BL WINDS ARND 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT...FG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SHELTERED/DEEPEST VALLEYS
LIFTING BY 14Z.

H5 RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRI...PROVIDING
PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS OVER NORTH.
12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW H5 LOW CLOSING OFF /TO VARYING DEGREES/ JUST
EAST OF OZARKS BY END OF FCST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DEPICT A BAND OF
H3 MOIST EJECTING NE FROM H5 LOW ON FRI...REACHING CWA FRI NIGHT.
INCREASED SKY INTO P/C RANGE FOR CIRRUS...WITH MID LEVEL CLDS
LAGGING BEHIND.

FOR TMPS...BASED MINT ON LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE EARLY. COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AROUND ONGOING FCSTED MAXT FOR FRI...WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO INCREASE INSERTED OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

HAVE ADJUSTED THE FOG FORECAST AS WAS DONE FOR THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
USED AREAS OF VALLEY FOG IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE IT SHOULD BE
MOST PREVALENT AGAIN...AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT A LARGER
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VALLEYS AND RIDGES...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE IS
NOT NECESSARILY REFLECTED IN THE MORE GENERALIZED ZFP AT THIS LONGER
TIME RANGE.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MADE THE CLOUD FORECASTING PARTICULARLY
DIFFICULT. WITH THIS NOT BEING AN OVERLY STRONG FEATURE...MODELS DO
SEEM TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHERE TO THROW THE MOISTURE. APPEARS THAT A
MODEST BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CLOUDS. HIGH LEVEL
PATCHY CIRRUS LOOKS REASONABLE DURING THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH IN ANY LAYER FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.

LARGELY RELIED ON HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AND KEPT CLOUD COVER AT A
MINIMUM. COMFORTABLE DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN...SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THUS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/HAL
LONG TERM....26/HAL
AVIATION...ABE

000
FXUS63 KJKL 182321
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
720 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AS OF 18Z WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A LINE FRM
KPKB...WESTWARD TO KCVG. LATEST VIS SHOWS A BAND OF STRATOCU
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...GETTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
CWA. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH ANY STRATOCU
DISSIPATING BY 00Z. MAIN FCST CONUNDRUM REMAINS EXTENT OF FG
TOWARD DAWN. THIS MORNINGS VIS SHOWED MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FG
WAS LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF K-80...INCLUDING K1AG AND K5I3 IN
PIKE CO. HOWEVER...WITH BUFKIT SHOWING BL WINDS ARND 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT...FG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SHELTERED/DEEPEST VALLEYS
LIFTING BY 14Z.

H5 RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRI...PROVIDING
PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS OVER NORTH.
12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW H5 LOW CLOSING OFF /TO VARYING DEGREES/ JUST
EAST OF OZARKS BY END OF FCST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DEPICT A BAND OF
H3 MOIST EJECTING NE FROM H5 LOW ON FRI...REACHING CWA FRI NIGHT.
INCREASED SKY INTO P/C RANGE FOR CIRRUS...WITH MID LEVEL CLDS
LAGGING BEHIND.

FOR TMPS...BASED MINT ON LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE EARLY. COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AROUND ONGOING FCSTED MAXT FOR FRI...WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO INCREASE INSERTED OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MADE THE CLOUD FORECASTING PARTICULARLY
DIFFICULT. WITH THIS NOT BEING AN OVERLY STRONG FEATURE...MODELS DO
SEEM TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHERE TO THROW THE MOISTURE. APPEARS THAT A
MODEST BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CLOUDS. HIGH LEVEL
PATCHY CIRRUS LOOKS REASONABLE DURING THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH IN ANY LAYER FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.

LARGELY RELIED ON HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AND KEPT CLOUD COVER AT A
MINIMUM. COMFORTABLE DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN...SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THUS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ABE

000
FXUS63 KLMK 182319
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WHAT OCCURRED TODAY. SOME INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
DAYTIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER
PATTERN QUIET AND UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN
UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAMES. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN THE DAY TIME AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WITH
COOL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
OVERALL...ANOTHER DAY OF MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...


CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO
HAZE. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 MPH THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO NEARLY
CALM BY 06Z. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z BUT WILL NOT
AFFECT GENERAL AVIATION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...JSD
LONG TERM....MACZKO
AVIATION.....JSD

000
FXUS63 KPAH 181945
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER
LATEST SAT PIX SHOWING A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...IT WEAKENS AND STALLS OUT. AS A RESULT...
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCE FOR POPS/QPF FOR THOSE
TIME FRAMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. POPS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY POP CHANCES DONT LOOK AS GOOD AS UPPER
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKER AND NO LONGER PROVIDING AS MUCH LIFT
THROUGH THE COLUMN...SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER RUNS TRY AND GENERATE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP
FOR THESE PERIODS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER TROF
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST...SO THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...SINCE MOS NUMBERS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE...JUST WENT
WITH A BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP A DRY EAST WIND
FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR
SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KCGI. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH ANY CIGS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE 15K.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JP
AVIATION...MY

000
FXUS63 KLMK 181851
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WHAT OCCURRED TODAY. SOME INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
DAYTIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER
PATTERN QUIET AND UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN
UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAMES. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES IN THE DAY TIME AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WITH
COOL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
OVERALL...ANOTHER DAY OF MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM....MACZKO
AVIATION.....MACZKO

000
FXUS63 KJKL 181835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AS OF 18Z WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A LINE FRM
KPKB...WESTWARD TO KCVG. LATEST VIS SHOWS A BAND OF STRATOCU
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...GETTING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
CWA. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH ANY STRATOCU
DISSIPATING BY 00Z. MAIN FCST CONUNDRUM REMAINS EXTENT OF FG
TOWARD DAWN. THIS MORNINGS VIS SHOWED MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FG
WAS LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF K-80...INCLUDING K1AG AND K5I3 IN
PIKE CO. HOWEVER...WITH BUFKIT SHOWING BL WINDS ARND 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT...FG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SHELTERED/DEEPEST VALLEYS
LIFTING BY 14Z.

H5 RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRI...PROVIDING
PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS OVER NORTH.
12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW H5 LOW CLOSING OFF /TO VARYING DEGREES/ JUST
EAST OF OZARKS BY END OF FCST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS DEPICT A BAND OF
H3 MOIST EJECTING NE FROM H5 LOW ON FRI...REACHING CWA FRI NIGHT.
INCREASED SKY INTO P/C RANGE FOR CIRRUS...WITH MID LEVEL CLDS
LAGGING BEHIND.

FOR TMPS...BASED MINT ON LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE EARLY. COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. GUIDANCE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AROUND ONGOING FCSTED MAXT FOR FRI...WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO INCREASE INSERTED OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MADE THE CLOUD FORECASTING PARTICULARLY
DIFFICULT. WITH THIS NOT BEING AN OVERLY STRONG FEATURE...MODELS DO
SEEM TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHERE TO THROW THE MOISTURE. APPEARS THAT A
MODEST BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CLOUDS. HIGH LEVEL
PATCHY CIRRUS LOOKS REASONABLE DURING THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH IN ANY LAYER FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.

LARGELY RELIED ON HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING AT A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...AND KEPT CLOUD COVER AT A
MINIMUM. COMFORTABLE DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN...SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FG TOWARD DAWN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE DEEPEST SHELTERED VALLEYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
K-80...INCLUDING K1AG AND K513. THIS FG WILL LIFT BY 13Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30

000
FXUS63 KJKL 181831
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
231 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/
ONLY CHG WAS TO INCREASE SKIES EVER SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AS LOCAL MDLS INDICATE SOME H85 MOIST THIS AFTN AHEAD OF
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
INTO WV. LACK OF ANY DEEP MOIST AND LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
KEEP AREA DRY THIS AFTN.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE OCCURRENCE AND AREAL EXTENT
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND THE WHETHER OR NOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DURING THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BULK OF THE FOG THAT HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS
BEEN FORMING IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS...BASICALLY EAST OF
A LINE EXTENDING FROM INEZ TO HAZARD TO WILLIAMSBURG. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT THINGS WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE
OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THE DEEPER AND MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE...PARTICULARLY NEAR
RIVERS AND LAKES.

CONDITIONS ARE ALSO NEAR IDEAL FOR CONTINUED RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLITS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST. YESTERDAYS COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER
REPORTS REVEALED THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS NUMBERS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...DECIDED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...GOING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA BORDERS.
DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE ON NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE NEW ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

DROUGHT BEGETS DROUGHT. CAN SEE NO PCPN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER FOR THE HAY FARMERS BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
PROPER DRYING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR RH AND FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE/COOL
FNT TO AFFECT THE NRN OH VLY ON SUNDAY BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP LVL
MOISTURE AND LACK OF STRENGTH TO THE FNT...THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLOUD
FCST SO HAVE BUMPED THE SKY VALUES UP. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FG TOWARD DAWN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE DEEPEST SHELTERED VALLEYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
K-80...INCLUDING K1AG AND K513. THIS FG WILL LIFT BY 13Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...30

000
FXUS63 KJKL 181828
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
228 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/
ONLY CHG WAS TO INCREASE SKIES EVER SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AS LOCAL MDLS INDICATE SOME H85 MOIST THIS AFTN AHEAD OF
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
INTO WV. LACK OF ANY DEEP MOIST AND LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
KEEP AREA DRY THIS AFTN.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE OCCURRENCE AND AREAL EXTENT
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND THE WHETHER OR NOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DURING THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BULK OF THE FOG THAT HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS
BEEN FORMING IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS...BASICALLY EAST OF
A LINE EXTENDING FROM INEZ TO HAZARD TO WILLIAMSBURG. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT THINGS WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE
OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THE DEEPER AND MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE...PARTICULARLY NEAR
RIVERS AND LAKES.

CONDITIONS ARE ALSO NEAR IDEAL FOR CONTINUED RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLITS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST. YESTERDAYS COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER
REPORTS REVEALED THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS NUMBERS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...DECIDED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...GOING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA BORDERS.
DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE ON NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE NEW ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

DROUGHT BEGETS DROUGHT. CAN SEE NO PCPN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER FOR THE HAY FARMERS BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
PROPER DRYING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR RH AND FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE/COOL
FNT TO AFFECT THE NRN OH VLY ON SUNDAY BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP LVL
MOISTURE AND LACK OF STRENGTH TO THE FNT...THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLOUD
FCST SO HAVE BUMPED THE SKY VALUES UP. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FG TOWARD DAWN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE DEEPEST SHELTERED VALLEYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
K-80...INCLUDING K1AG AND K513.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...30

000
FXUS63 KLMK 181704
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
PROVIDE THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHERN INDIANA
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH NO AFFECT ON THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY
(LOW TO MID 80). WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE MID 50S...
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID
50S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE FCST ATTM. QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD. MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED. THE 00Z GFS AND EURO RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID
LEVEL H5 TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...SO I AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FCST THAT ONLY A MINOR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S CONTINUE
TO LOOK GOOD. SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THIS TIME PD. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SW THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....MACZKO

000
FXUS63 KJKL 181426
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1026 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED
ONLY CHG WAS TO INCREASE SKIES EVER SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AS LOCAL MDLS INDICATE SOME H85 MOIST THIS AFTN AHEAD OF
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
INTO WV. LACK OF ANY DEEP MOIST AND LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
KEEP AREA DRY THIS AFTN.


THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE OCCURRENCE AND AREAL EXTENT
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND THE WHETHER OR NOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DURING THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BULK OF THE FOG THAT HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS
BEEN FORMING IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS...BASICALLY EAST OF
A LINE EXTENDING FROM INEZ TO HAZARD TO WILLIAMSBURG. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT THINGS WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE
OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THE DEEPER AND MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE...PARTICULARLY NEAR
RIVERS AND LAKES.

CONDITIONS ARE ALSO NEAR IDEAL FOR CONTINUED RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLITS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST. YESTERDAYS COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER
REPORTS REVEALED THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS NUMBERS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...DECIDED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...GOING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA BORDERS.
DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE ON NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE NEW ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

DROUGHT BEGETS DROUGHT. CAN SEE NO PCPN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER FOR THE HAY FARMERS BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
PROPER DRYING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR RH AND FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE/COOL
FNT TO AFFECT THE NRN OH VLY ON SUNDAY BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP LVL
MOISTURE AND LACK OF STRENGTH TO THE FNT...THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLOUD
FCST SO HAVE BUMPED THE SKY VALUES UP. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US...INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CU NEAR 6KFT AND PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
IS IN ORDER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL THE TAF SITES. NO FOG
WAS OBSERVED AT LOZ OR SME THIS AM AND WITH AN EQUALLY DRY AIRMASS...
FEEL THAT THE SAME WILL OCCUR IN 24 HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...

000
FXUS63 KPAH 181129 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
629 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATE FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODEL SUITE SHOWS COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH
GETTING OVERTAKEN/DISINTEGRATED BY PLUNGE OF GREAT LAKES SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. IT IS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRAG
DRIER AIR INTO OUR LOWER TROP ON ITS LIGHT ELYS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUDS TODAY (AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG BURNOFF).

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND YIELDS A SLIGHT VEER TO THE SE
FOR OUR LOWER TROP STEERING FLOW. MEANWHILE WE SEE 60S TDS ALONG
THE GULF COAST...WHICH START TO CREEP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS SIGNAL UPPER HEIGHT FALLS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SRN PLAINS. THE NAM ACTUALLY GENERATES SOME PCPN
INTO SEMO AS IT RETURNS THESE 60S TDS INTO THE OZARKS...BUT IT IS
THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES SO ATTM. HOWEVER THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
SIMILARITY TO THE MOISTURE RETURN. CLOSER EXAMINATION OF SOUNDING
DATA OUT OF THE GFS REVEALS A MOISTENING IN THE 800-700MB LEVEL
BUT SURFACE TDS REMAIN IN THE 50S. AND THE 850MB THETA-E ONLY
INCREASES TO 324K (NAM CLOSER TO 330K WHERE GFS HAS PCPN JUST TO
OUR SOUTH). WE`LL LAY OFF POPS FOR NOW PER THE COLLAB PIC...BUT
IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE UPON TODAY.

BEYOND THE FRI-SAT SCENARIO AFOREMENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
AREA STAYS SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEATHER TO OUR NORTH/WEST AND
WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW RIDGING ALOFT THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WELL THRU NEXT WEEK SO A CONTINUING
DRY/SEASONAL FORECAST LOOKS TO HOLD.

GFS FLAVOR TO FORECAST CAUSED US TO BIAS OUR TEMPS TOWARD ITS MAV
MOS THOUGH NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE NOTED AMONGST THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. BLENDED INTO COLLAB PIC PER THE USUAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...DEALING WITH
VSBYS OF 1/4SM AT KCGI BUT VFR EVERYWHERE ELSE. ONCE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF IN A FEW HOURS...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER TODAY
DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AS WELL. FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY FOR KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

HUMPHREY/WIELGOS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 181128
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE OCCURRENCE AND AREAL EXTENT
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND THE WHETHER OR NOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DURING THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BULK OF THE FOG THAT HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS
BEEN FORMING IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS...BASICALLY EAST OF
A LINE EXTENDING FROM INEZ TO HAZARD TO WILLIAMSBURG. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT THINGS WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE
OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THE DEEPER AND MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE...PARTICULARLY NEAR
RIVERS AND LAKES.

CONDITIONS ARE ALSO NEAR IDEAL FOR CONTINUED RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLITS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST. YESTERDAYS COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER
REPORTS REVEALED THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS NUMBERS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...DECIDED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...GOING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA BORDERS.
DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE ON NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE NEW ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

DROUGHT BEGETS DROUGHT. CAN SEE NO PCPN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER FOR THE HAY FARMERS BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
PROPER DRYING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR RH AND FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE/COOL
FNT TO AFFECT THE NRN OH VLY ON SUNDAY BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP LVL
MOISTURE AND LACK OF STRENGTH TO THE FNT...THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLOUD
FCST SO HAVE BUMPED THE SKY VALUES UP. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US...INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CU NEAR 6KFT AND PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
IS IN ORDER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL THE TAF SITES. NO FOG
WAS OBSERVED AT LOZ OR SME THIS AM AND WITH AN EQUALLY DRY AIRMASS...
FEEL THAT THE SAME WILL OCCUR IN 24 HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 181040
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
PROVIDE THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.  A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHERN
INDIANA THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH NO AFFECT ON THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY
(LOW TO MID 80). WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE MID 50S... AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE FCST ATTM.  QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD.  MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED.  THE 00Z GFS AND EURO RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL H5
TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...SO I AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST THAT
ONLY A MINOR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S CONTINUE TO LOOK
GOOD.  SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THIS TIME PD.  STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SW THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY.  THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR FLIGHT CAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....MRJ
AVIATION.....MRJ

000
FXUS63 KPAH 180714
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
214 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODEL SUITE SHOWS COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH
GETTING OVERTAKEN/DISINTEGRATED BY PLUNGE OF GREAT LAKES SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. IT IS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRAG
DRIER AIR INTO OUR LOWER TROP ON ITS LIGHT ELYS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUDS TODAY (AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG BURNOFF).

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND YIELDS A SLIGHT VEER TO THE SE
FOR OUR LOWER TROP STEERING FLOW. MEANWHILE WE SEE 60S TDS ALONG
THE GULF COAST...WHICH START TO CREEP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS THE MODELS SIGNAL UPPER HEIGHT FALLS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SRN PLAINS. THE NAM ACTUALLY GENERATES SOME PCPN
INTO SEMO AS IT RETURNS THESE 60S TDS INTO THE OZARKS...BUT IT IS
THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES SO ATTM. HOWEVER THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
SIMILARITY TO THE MOISTURE RETURN. CLOSER EXAMINATION OF SOUNDING
DATA OUT OF THE GFS REVEALS A MOISTENING IN THE 800-700MB LEVEL
BUT SURFACE TDS REMAIN IN THE 50S. AND THE 850MB THETA-E ONLY
INCREASES TO 324K (NAM CLOSER TO 330K WHERE GFS HAS PCPN JUST TO
OUR SOUTH). WE`LL LAY OFF POPS FOR NOW PER THE COLLAB PIC...BUT
IT`S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE UPON TODAY.

BEYOND THE FRI-SAT SCENARIO AFOREMENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
AREA STAYS SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEATHER TO OUR NORTH/WEST AND
WEATHER TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW RIDGING ALOFT THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WELL THRU NEXT WEEK SO A CONTINUING
DRY/SEASONAL FORECAST LOOKS TO HOLD.

GFS FLAVOR TO FORECAST CAUSED US TO BIAS OUR TEMPS TOWARD ITS MAV
MOS THOUGH NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE NOTED AMONGST THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. BLENDED INTO COLLAB PIC PER THE USUAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY CALM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/NIL WINDS WILL ALLOW FORMATION/CONTINUATION
OF SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG...W/ALTERNATING IFR (CGI) TO MVFR
(ELSEWHERE) VSBYS LIKELY. OUTSIDE OF FOG PRONE AREAS AND THE TIME
FRAME OF A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO/THRU SUNRISE...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME FORECAST. THEN THE FLOW WILL
START TO COME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH
MAY MITIGATE ANOTHER NIGHT`S FOG DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

HUMPHREY/WIELGOS

000
FXUS63 KLMK 180655
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
PROVIDE THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.  A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHERN
INDIANA THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH NO AFFECT ON THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY
(LOW TO MID 80). WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE MID 50S... AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE FCST ATTM.  QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD.  MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED.  THE 00Z GFS AND EURO RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL H5
TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...SO I AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST THAT
ONLY A MINOR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S CONTINUE TO LOOK
GOOD.  SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THROUGH THIS TIME PD.  STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SW THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....MRJ
AVIATION.....JA

000
FXUS63 KJKL 180648
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
248 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE OCCURRENCE AND AREAL EXTENT
OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND THE WHETHER OR NOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT DURING THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BULK OF THE FOG THAT HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS
BEEN FORMING IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ALONG AND TO
THE WEST OF THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS...BASICALLY EAST OF
A LINE EXTENDING FROM INEZ TO HAZARD TO WILLIAMSBURG. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT THINGS WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE
OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THE DEEPER AND MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE...PARTICULARLY NEAR
RIVERS AND LAKES.

CONDITIONS ARE ALSO NEAR IDEAL FOR CONTINUED RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLITS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST. YESTERDAYS COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVER
REPORTS REVEALED THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS DROPPED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS NUMBERS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...DECIDED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...GOING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA BORDERS.
DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT AS WELL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE ON NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE NEW ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

DROUGHT BEGETS DROUGHT. CAN SEE NO PCPN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER FOR THE HAY FARMERS BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
PROPER DRYING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR RH AND FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE/COOL
FNT TO AFFECT THE NRN OH VLY ON SUNDAY BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP LVL
MOISTURE AND LACK OF STRENGTH TO THE FNT...THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLOUD
FCST SO HAVE BUMPED THE SKY VALUES UP. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US...INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CU NEAR 6KFT AND PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 6Z AND 13Z IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
IS IN ORDER. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 180550
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WILL
FORECAST PERSISTENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TO
OVERNITE LOWS AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG...MAINLY IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER
VALLEY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE KENTUCKY...BIG SANDY AND
LICKING. HAVE TWEAKED MORNING LOW TEMPS TO REFLECT THE RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT AND THIS HELPED WITH THE FOG TOOL IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

DROUGHT BEGETS DROUGHT. CAN SEE NO PCPN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER FOR THE HAY FARMERS BUT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
PROPER DRYING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR RH AND FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE/COOL
FNT TO AFFECT THE NRN OH VLY ON SUNDAY BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP LVL
MOISTURE AND LACK OF STRENGTH TO THE FNT...THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLOUD
FCST SO HAVE BUMPED THE SKY VALUES UP. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US...INCLUDING THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CU NEAR 6KFT AND PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 6Z AND 13Z IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
IS IN ORDER. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...ABE/JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 180511
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
115 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH VERY
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE TO LEAVE A CRISP AND CLEAR NIGHT. OTHER
THAN SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TOWARDS MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 50S. THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH FEW
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING. TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY WIND OF 7-12 MPH.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING FCST PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH
OVER CNTRL U.S. AND OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN CONTROL. THIS WILL KEEP
DAYS WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S...AND NIGHTS
MILD WITH LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR MUCH OF PERIOD.

12Z GFS NAM AND GEM DO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS OVER
THE WEEKEND IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WILL FCST NO WORSE THAN PARTLY
SUNNY AT THIS TIME...WITH A CONTINUED DRY FCST DESPITE MODELS
SHOWING LIFTED INDEX VALUES GETTING DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....TWF
AVIATION.....JA