000
FXUS63 KIND 200223 AAA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.AVIATION...UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KBMG AND THEY MAY BE IFR AT TIMES UNTIL
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. WILL ADD SOME FOG TO KLAF AND KHUF AS
WELL...BUT NOW WILL KEEP THOSE SITES NO LOWER THAN MVFR CATEGORY.
ANY FOG WILL CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SCT050
POSSIBLE MIDDAY SATURDAY ON.  ALSO AN ISOLD THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE
WEST OF A KHUF-KBMG LINE AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAFS.

&&


.DISCUSSION...

FCST FOCUS REMAINS ON TEMPS/MEAGER PRECIP CHCS

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO MO/KS WHILE A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WERE LOCATED ACROSS
TEXARKANA. ISOLATED STORMS WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SERIOUS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AND WILL USE A NEAR 50/50
GFS/NAM BLEND FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP CHCS.

WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. MEAGER
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT DURING PM HRS BOTH SAT AND SUN ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. SFC CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE WEAK SO ANY PRECIP CHCS APPEAR
VERY SMALL AND LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SUPPORT THE DRIER GFS FOR PRECIP CHCS. MOS TEMPS ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GOING NUMBERS SO LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON HIGHS/LOWS.

BY MON...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN WHILE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY STRENGTHENS SO LOOK FOR A  DRY ENE
FLOW TO RE-DEVELOP LATER SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO BIG CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE 850MB TEMPS SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WESTERLIES IS FCST TO SHEAR NW OF THE AREA
THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. ORIENTATION OF THE MID/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MOISTURE RETURN SO WE WILL KEEP THE FCST
DRY NEXT THU/FRI.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...CO

000
FXUS63 KIWX 200200
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1000 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY NEEDED TO TWEAK THE DEWPINTS SOME
WITH HIGHER VALUES THAN IN THE GRIDS BY ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...OTHERWISE JUST
SOME FRESHENING UP THE HOURLY TEMPS. THIN CI SHIELD WILL CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THE REGION...WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. NO NEW ZONES NEEDED...BUT WILL ISSUE NEW AFM
AND PFM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW DEWPTS FOR THE NEXT 12HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH FROM A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
STILL OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE TOWARDS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TO HELP THE LOW EJECT
NE. SOME MSTR IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH FEATURES WITH ISOL TO SCT
CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS. QUESTION REMAINS IF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL PHASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FLOW
AND WASH OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT ONE ARRIVES INTO
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT
DRY. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BUT FEEL NOT WORTH ANYTHING MORE THAN
THE MENTION HERE.

TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM A BIT HIGHER THAN HIGHS TODAY
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH LOWS BOTH NIGHTS GENERALLY
IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...
RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PD. SHALLOW BACK DOOR CDFNT CROSSING CWA SAT WILL WASH OUT
SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WK RTN WAA
BEGINS TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE AREA ESP MON ONWARD AS MID LVL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVR THE GREAT LAKES SPRTG HIGH TEMPS AOA NORMAL AND NR
SEASONABLE MIN TEMPS ESP W/DWINDLING MSTR. OTHERWISE...SENSIBLE WX
REMAINS NIL IN THIS PATTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

SFC HIGH STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND BKN HIGH CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
BUMP UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND A FRONT APPROACHES.
VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DRY FRONT LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDINESS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...SCHOTT
AVIATION...SCHOTT
UPDATE...SCHOTT

000
FXUS63 KIWX 192342
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
742 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

SFC HIGH STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND BKN HIGH CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
BUMP UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND A FRONT APPROACHES.
VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DRY FRONT LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDINESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH FROM A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
STILL OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE TOWARDS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TO HELP THE LOW EJECT
NE. SOME MSTR IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH FEATURES WITH ISOL TO SCT
CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS. QUESTION REMAINS IF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL PHASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FLOW
AND WASH OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT ONE ARRIVES INTO
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT
DRY. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BUT FEEL NOT WORTH ANYTHING MORE THAN
THE MENTION HERE.

TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM A BIT HIGHER THAN HIGHS TODAY
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH LOWS BOTH NIGHTS GENERALLY
IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...
RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PD. SHALLOW BACK DOOR CDFNT CROSSING CWA SAT WILL WASH OUT
SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WK RTN WAA
BEGINS TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE AREA ESP MON ONWARD AS MID LVL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVR THE GREAT LAKES SPRTG HIGH TEMPS AOA NORMAL AND NR
SEASONABLE MIN TEMPS ESP W/DWINDLING MSTR. OTHERWISE...SENSIBLE WX
REMAINS NIL IN THIS PATTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN
AVIATION...SCHOTT

000
FXUS63 KIND 192332
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
730 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S ALONG WITH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...SO VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SCT050 POSSIBLE MIDDAY
SATURDAY ON.  ALSO AN ISOLD THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLE WEST OF A
KHUF-KBMG LINE AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&


.DISCUSSION...

FCST FOCUS REMAINS ON TEMPS/MEAGER PRECIP CHCS

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO MO/KS WHILE A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WERE LOCATED ACROSS
TEXARKANA. ISOLATED STORMS WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SERIOUS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AND WILL USE A NEAR 50/50
GFS/NAM BLEND FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP CHCS.

WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. MEAGER
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT DURING PM HRS BOTH SAT AND SUN ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. SFC CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE WEAK SO ANY PRECIP CHCS APPEAR
VERY SMALL AND LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SUPPORT THE DRIER GFS FOR PRECIP CHCS. MOS TEMPS ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GOING NUMBERS SO LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON HIGHS/LOWS.

BY MON...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN WHILE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY STRENGTHENS SO LOOK FOR A  DRY ENE
FLOW TO RE-DEVELOP LATER SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO BIG CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE 850MB TEMPS SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WESTERLIES IS FCST TO SHEAR NW OF THE AREA
THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. ORIENTATION OF THE MID/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MOISTURE RETURN SO WE WILL KEEP THE FCST
DRY NEXT THU/FRI.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...CO

000
FXUS63 KIWX 191917
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
317 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH FROM A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
STILL OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SE TOWARDS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TO HELP THE LOW EJECT
NE. SOME MSTR IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH FEATURES WITH ISOL TO SCT
CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS. QUESTION REMAINS IF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL PHASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH IT WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FLOW
AND WASH OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT ONE ARRIVES INTO
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT
DRY. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BUT FEEL NOT WORTH ANYTHING MORE THAN
THE MENTION HERE.

TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM A BIT HIGHER THAN HIGHS TODAY
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH LOWS BOTH NIGHTS GENERALLY
IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PD. SHALLOW BACK DOOR CDFNT CROSSING CWA SAT WILL WASH OUT
SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WK RTN WAA
BEGINS TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE AREA ESP MON ONWARD AS MID LVL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVR THE GREAT LAKES SPRTG HIGH TEMPS AOA NORMAL AND NR
SEASONABLE MIN TEMPS ESP W/DWINDLING MSTR. OTHERWISE...SENSIBLE WX
REMAINS NIL IN THIS PATTN.


&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 116 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WAS ALLOWING FOR THIN LAYER OF CI TO STREAM
NORTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY CLOUD COVER TO IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME QUESTION REMAINS OUTSIDE THIS TIME
FRAME IF THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS THIS WAVE DRIFTS
NORTH AND A WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEFORE WASHING
OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

SHORT TERM...
FAVOR NAM HANDLING WRT ORPHANED OZARK UL SHORTWAVE AS GFS FALTERS
WITH INIT OF VORT IN ERN TX/WRN MO. MID/ULVL RIDGELINE FROM THE
SERN STATES NORTHWEST INTO CORN BELT WL SERVE TO SQUELCH ADVANCING
CI SHIELD WITH PRIMARILY ONLY HIGH/THIN CI ACRS MUCH OF CWA...SAVE
FOR SRN/SWRN ZONES INVOF RIDGE AXIS WHERE OPACITY/COVERAGE MAY
CALL FOR SLIGHTLY HIR CLOUD COVERAGE BY AFTN COINCIDENT WITH NAM
LWRG OF CPD IN 400-300MB LYR. CONSISTENCY REIGNS SUPREME WRT HIGHS
TODAY AND GIVEN EXTREME DRY COLUMN DIURNAL PLUS/LATE AFTN
DRY ADIABATIC LR TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ANTICIPATED. RADIATIONAL
LOSSES HELD IN CHECK TONIGHT AS BL TO REMAIN MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE/FRONT ADVANCE AND HAVE WARMED MINS A FEW
DEGREES. ILL DISCERNED FRONTAL BNDRY/WEAK PREFRONTAL TROF PASSES
ON SATURDAY AFTN..MODIFIED KBEH/NEARSHORE REGION TO NEARLY AS HIGH
AS INLAND MAXT WITH TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND CORE OF
DEEPER/COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOT TO
ARRIVE TIL NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BLV NAM OVERDONE IN ATTEMPT TO
CONVECT SATURDAY AFTN/EVE BRINGING LWR 60S SFC DPS/SBCAPES TO 1500
J/KG ACRS SRN MI. LACK OF DEFINED SFC CONVERGENT BNDRY/BETTER
KINEMATICS HOLDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHEAST AND MEEK COLUMN MOISTURE
POINT TO DRY PASSAGE..ONLY ACK OF POTENTIAL FOR NOW IS TO HAVE
RELINQUISHED ZERO POPS FOR MERE 5 PERCENT FAR NORTH/NERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
AIR AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY FETCH INTO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PREFER THE COOLER 00Z GFS
18/00Z AND 19/00Z AND MEAN MOS TEMPERATURES OVER THE WARMER 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN GIVEN THIS PATTERN.  CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ARE NEAR
72F TO 74F...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE TO COME CLOSER TO THESE
VALUES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN
AVIATION...FISHER

000
FXUS63 KIND 191741
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
140 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FCST FOCUS REMAINS ON TEMPS/MEAGER PRECIP CHCS

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE INTO MO/KS WHILE A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WERE LOCATED ACROSS
TEXARKANA. ISOLATED STORMS WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON.

NO SERIOUS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AND WILL USE A NEAR 50/50
GFS/NAM BLEND FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP CHCS.

WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. MEAGER
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT DURING PM HRS BOTH SAT AND SUN ACROSS THE FAR
WEST. SFC CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE WEAK SO ANY PRECIP CHCS APPEAR
VERY SMALL AND LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SUPPORT THE DRIER GFS FOR PRECIP CHCS. MOS TEMPS ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GOING NUMBERS SO LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON HIGHS/LOWS.

BY MON...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN WHILE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY STRENGTHENS SO LOOK FOR A  DRY ENE
FLOW TO RE-DEVELOP LATER SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO BIG CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE 850MB TEMPS SO LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WESTERLIES IS FCST TO SHEAR NW OF THE AREA
THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. ORIENTATION OF THE MID/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MOISTURE RETURN SO WE WILL KEEP THE FCST
DRY NEXT THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF
HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW DEW POINTS HAVE KEPT THE VSBYS P6SM OVERNGT
DESPITE CALM WINDS. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TODAY AND TNGT WITH
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL TIME SECS FAVORING BKN CI SHIELD. CU
DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL CU TODAY...AND THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE LGT AND SE.


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

AVIATION...MK
PUBLIC...CO

000
FXUS63 KIND 191727
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
127 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE AIR
SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY FOR FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

DISCUSSION...

IR SAT SHOWS SOME CI MVING INTO INDIANA FROM THE SW. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPR LOW OVR ARKANSAS WITH UPR RDG OVR THE MIDWEST AND OH
VLY. TEMPS RANGED FROM 51 AT MIE TO 61 AT IND WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S AND LIGHT ELY WINDS.

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPS/SKY COVER. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WL
USE A BLEND.

TODAY...USED A GUIDANCE BLEND AND KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
H8 TEMPS ARE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY BUT WL SEE SOME CIRRUS OVER THE
AREA AS UPR LOW MEANDERS N SO THINK THESE FACTORS MAY CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT.

TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS AROUND PREFER THE WARMER MET LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPR 50S.

A WEAK UPR LOW MVING UP FROM THE PLAINS WL SLOWLY MEANDER UP TO IL.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FORCING WITH THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS ESPECIALLY WITH SFC HIGH IN
PLACE. AFTER THIS CUTOFF LOW GETS REINGESTED INTO THE MAIN UPR FLOW
ON MONDAY THE RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE SO HAVE KEPT ENTIRE FCST
DRY. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70 TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
CONTINUE THRU THE PD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KIWX 191716
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
116 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WAS ALLOWING FOR THIN LAYER OF CI TO STREAM
NORTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY CLOUD COVER TO IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME QUESTION REMAINS OUTSIDE THIS TIME
FRAME IF THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS THIS WAVE DRIFTS
NORTH AND A WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEFORE WASHING
OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008/

SHORT TERM...
FAVOR NAM HANDLING WRT ORPHANED OZARK UL SHORTWAVE AS GFS FALTERS
WITH INIT OF VORT IN ERN TX/WRN MO. MID/ULVL RIDGELINE FROM THE
SERN STATES NORTHWEST INTO CORN BELT WL SERVE TO SQUELCH ADVANCING
CI SHIELD WITH PRIMARILY ONLY HIGH/THIN CI ACRS MUCH OF CWA...SAVE
FOR SRN/SWRN ZONES INVOF RIDGE AXIS WHERE OPACITY/COVERAGE MAY
CALL FOR SLIGHTLY HIR CLOUD COVERAGE BY AFTN COINCIDENT WITH NAM
LWRG OF CPD IN 400-300MB LYR. CONSISTENCY REIGNS SUPREME WRT HIGHS
TODAY AND GIVEN EXTREME DRY COLUMN DIURNAL PLUS/LATE AFTN
DRY ADIABATIC LR TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ANTICIPATED. RADIATIONAL
LOSSES HELD IN CHECK TONIGHT AS BL TO REMAIN MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE/FRONT ADVANCE AND HAVE WARMED MINS A FEW
DEGREES. ILL DISCERNED FRONTAL BNDRY/WEAK PREFRONTAL TROF PASSES
ON SATURDAY AFTN..MODIFIED KBEH/NEARSHORE REGION TO NEARLY AS HIGH
AS INLAND MAXT WITH TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND CORE OF
DEEPER/COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOT TO
ARRIVE TIL NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BLV NAM OVERDONE IN ATTEMPT TO
CONVECT SATURDAY AFTN/EVE BRINGING LWR 60S SFC DPS/SBCAPES TO 1500
J/KG ACRS SRN MI. LACK OF DEFINED SFC CONVERGENT BNDRY/BETTER
KINEMATICS HOLDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHEAST AND MEEK COLUMN MOISTURE
POINT TO DRY PASSAGE..ONLY ACK OF POTENTIAL FOR NOW IS TO HAVE
RELINQUISHED ZERO POPS FOR MERE 5 PERCENT FAR NORTH/NERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
AIR AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY FETCH INTO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PREFER THE COOLER 00Z GFS
18/00Z AND 19/00Z AND MEAN MOS TEMPERATURES OVER THE WARMER 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN GIVEN THIS PATTERN.  CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ARE NEAR
72F TO 74F...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE TO COME CLOSER TO THESE
VALUES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER

000
FXUS63 KIND 191048
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
648 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF
HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW DEW POINTS HAVE KEPT THE VSBYS P6SM OVERNGT
DESPITE CALM WINDS. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TODAY AND TNGT WITH
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL TIME SECS FAVORING BKN CI SHIELD. CU
DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL CU TODAY...AND THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE LGT AND SE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

IR SAT SHOWS SOME CI MVING INTO INDIANA FROM THE SW. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPR LOW OVR ARKANSAS WITH UPR RDG OVR THE MIDWEST AND OH
VLY. TEMPS RANGED FROM 51 AT MIE TO 61 AT IND WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S AND LIGHT ELY WINDS.

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPS/SKY COVER. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WL
USE A BLEND.

TODAY...USED A GUIDANCE BLEND AND KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
H8 TEMPS ARE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY BUT WL SEE SOME CIRRUS OVER THE
AREA AS UPR LOW MEANDERS N SO THINK THESE FACTORS MAY CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT.

TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS AROUND PREFER THE WARMER MET LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPR 50S.

A WEAK UPR LOW MVING UP FROM THE PLAINS WL SLOWLY MEANDER UP TO IL.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FORCING WITH THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS ESPECIALLY WITH SFC HIGH IN
PLACE. AFTER THIS CUTOFF LOW GETS REINGESTED INTO THE MAIN UPR FLOW
ON MONDAY THE RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE SO HAVE KEPT ENTIRE FCST
DRY. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70 TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
CONTINUE THRU THE PD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

AVIATION...MK
PUBLIC...CP

000
FXUS63 KIWX 190839
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
439 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...
FAVOR NAM HANDLING WRT ORPHANED OZARK UL SHORTWAVE AS GFS FALTERS
WITH INIT OF VORT IN ERN TX/WRN MO. MID/ULVL RIDGELINE FROM THE
SERN STATES NORTHWEST INTO CORN BELT WL SERVE TO SQUELCH ADVANCING
CI SHIELD WITH PRIMARILY ONLY HIGH/THIN CI ACRS MUCH OF CWA...SAVE
FOR SRN/SWRN ZONES INVOF RIDGE AXIS WHERE OPACITY/COVERAGE MAY
CALL FOR SLIGHTLY HIR CLOUD COVERAGE BY AFTN COINCIDENT WITH NAM
LWRG OF CPD IN 400-300MB LYR. CONSISTENCY REIGNS SUPREME WRT HIGHS
TODAY AND GIVEN EXTREME DRY COLUMN DIURNAL PLUS/LATE AFTN
DRY ADIABATIC LR TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ANTICIPATED. RADIATIONAL
LOSSES HELD IN CHECK TONIGHT AS BL TO REMAIN MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE/FRONT ADVANCE AND HAVE WARMED MINS A FEW
DEGREES. ILL DISCERNED FRONTAL BNDRY/WEAK PREFRONTAL TROF PASSES
ON SATURDAY AFTN..MODIFIED KBEH/NEARSHORE REGION TO NEARLY AS HIGH
AS INLAND MAXT WITH TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND CORE OF
DEEPER/COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOT TO
ARRIVE TIL NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BLV NAM OVERDONE IN ATTEMPT TO
CONVECT SATURDAY AFTN/EVE BRINGING LWR 60S SFC DPS/SBCAPES TO 1500
J/KG ACRS SRN MI. LACK OF DEFINED SFC CONVERGENT BNDRY/BETTER
KINEMATICS HOLDS MUCH FURTHER NORTHEAST AND MEEK COLUMN MOISTURE
POINT TO DRY PASSAGE..ONLY ACK OF POTENTIAL FOR NOW IS TO HAVE
RELINQUISHED ZERO POPS FOR MERE 5 PERCENT FAR NORTH/NERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
AIR AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY FETCH INTO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PREFER THE COOLER 00Z GFS
18/00Z AND 19/00Z AND MEAN MOS TEMPERATURES OVER THE WARMER 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN GIVEN THIS PATTERN.  CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ARE NEAR
72F TO 74F...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE TO COME CLOSER TO THESE
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06 UTC TAFS. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH
THIN CI SHIELD TO ADVANCE ACRS NRN IN. CHANGE GROUPS AFFORDED ONLY
TO DETAIL VEERING WINDS AND SPEED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY

000
FXUS63 KIND 190610
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
210 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

IR SAT SHOWS SOME CI MVING INTO INDIANA FROM THE SW. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPR LOW OVR ARKANSAS WITH UPR RDG OVR THE MIDWEST AND OH
VLY. TEMPS RANGED FROM 51 AT MIE TO 61 AT IND WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S AND LIGHT ELY WINDS.

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPS/SKY COVER. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WL
USE A BLEND.

TODAY...USED A GUIDANCE BLEND AND KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
H8 TEMPS ARE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY BUT WL SEE SOME CIRRUS OVER THE
AREA AS UPR LOW MEANDERS N SO THINK THESE FACTORS MAY CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT.

TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS AROUND PREFER THE WARMER MET LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPR 50S.

A WEAK UPR LOW MVING UP FROM THE PLAINS WL SLOWLY MEANDER UP TO IL.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FORCING WITH THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS ESPECIALLY WITH SFC HIGH IN
PLACE. AFTER THIS CUTOFF LOW GETS REINGESTED INTO THE MAIN UPR FLOW
ON MONDAY THE RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE SO HAVE KEPT ENTIRE FCST
DRY. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70 TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
CONTINUE THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES AT KHUF TO
10-15 DEGREES AT KIND AND KLAF.  THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KIND
OR KLAF AND ONLY BRIEFLY MVFR AT KBMG AND KHUF.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.  SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNFICANT LOWER OR MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

AVIATION...JH/MK
PUBLIC...CP

000
FXUS63 KIWX 190534
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.AVIATION...
06 UTC TAFS. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH
THIN CI SHIELD TO ADVANCE ACRS NRN IN. CHANGE GROUPS AFFORDED ONLY
TO DETAIL VEERING WINDS AND SPEED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TRANQUIL FORECAST IN STORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SFC RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. THE COOL EAST TO
NE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AREAS WITH FAVORABLE DRAINAGE POSSIBLY SEEING
LOW 40S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW UNDER NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A FEW DEGRES WARMER BUT STILL GREAT FOR GIVING
THE A/C A BREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CDFNT TO CROSS CWA SAT AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING SW DIGGING
INTO MEAN UPR TROUGH OVR ERN CANADA AND RESURGENT SFC RIDGING BLDG
SEWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND. 12Z MED RANGE INDICATION POINTS TO A FASTER
MID LVL RIDGE EXPANSION ACRS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY AND W/
TEMPERATURES AOA NORMAL THROUGH NXT WEEK. OTHERWISE CONTD DRY
THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN
AVIATION...MURPHY

000
FXUS63 KIND 190403
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1203 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008


.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES AT KHUF TO
10-15 DEGREES AT KIND AND KLAF.  THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KIND
OR KLAF AND ONLY BRIEFLY MVFR AT KBMG AND KHUF.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.  SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNFICANT LOWER OR MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPS/SKY IN SHORT TERM.

WEAK FRONT HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING UNIFORM NE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT 18Z SFC MAP FEATURED A HIGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WHILE
LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAIN JET
AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER.

IN THE SHORT TERM...QUIET WX WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDING NE WINDS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER AT IND WITH
A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON LIGHT NE WINDS.

MAX TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S MOST SPOTS GIVEN FCST 850MB TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE. WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW NOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS COULD TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF HIGHS GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND TIME OF YEAR. COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER SUN WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER LATEST MEXMOS POPS ARE
STILL BELOW CLIMO BY NEXT THU SO WE WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FCST DRY
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...CO

000
FXUS63 KIWX 182340
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
740 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008


.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. EAST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST FLOW
FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TRANQUIL FORECAST IN STORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SFC RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. THE COOL EAST TO
NE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AREAS WITH FAVORABLE DRAINAGE POSSIBLY SEEING
LOW 40S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW UNDER NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A FEW DEGRES WARMER BUT STILL GREAT FOR GIVING
THE A/C A BREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CDFNT TO CROSS CWA SAT AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING SW DIGGING
INTO MEAN UPR TROUGH OVR ERN CANADA AND RESURGENT SFC RIDGING BLDG
SEWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND. 12Z MED RANGE INDICATION POINTS TO A FASTER
MID LVL RIDGE EXPANSION ACRS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY AND W/
TEMPERATURES AOA NORMAL THROUGH NXT WEEK. OTHERWISE CONTD DRY
THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN
AVIATION...WEISSER

000
FXUS63 KIND 182326
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
725 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008


.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPS/SKY IN SHORT TERM.

WEAK FRONT HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING UNIFORM NE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT 18Z SFC MAP FEATURED A HIGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WHILE
LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAIN JET
AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER.

IN THE SHORT TERM...QUIET WX WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDING NE WINDS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER AT IND WITH
A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON LIGHT NE WINDS.

MAX TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S MOST SPOTS GIVEN FCST 850MB TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE. WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW NOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS COULD TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF HIGHS GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND TIME OF YEAR. COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER SUN WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER LATEST MEXMOS POPS ARE
STILL BELOW CLIMO BY NEXT THU SO WE WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FCST DRY
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF
DRY AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.  WE WILL BE A IN LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. DRIER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG AT KIND OR KLAF.  THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MVFR FOG AT
KBMG AND KHUF...BUT EVEN THERE IT LOOKS MORE IFFY THAN LAST FEW
NIGHTS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY OTHERWISE
VFR...

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...CO

000
FXUS63 KIWX 181902
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
302 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TRANQUIL FORECAST IN STORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SFC RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. THE COOL EAST TO
NE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AREAS WITH FAVORABLE DRAINAGE POSSIBLY SEEING
LOW 40S. TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW UNDER NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A FEW DEGRES WARMER BUT STILL GREAT FOR GIVING
THE A/C A BREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CDFNT TO CROSS CWA SAT AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING SW DIGGING INTO
MEAN UPR TROUGH OVR ERN CANADA AND RESURGENT SFC RIDGING BLDG SEWD
ACRS NEW ENGLAND. 12Z MED RANGE INDICATION POINTS TO A FASTER MID
LVL RIDGE EXPANSION ACRS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY AND W/
TEMPERATURES AOA NORMAL THROUGH NXT WEEK. OTHERWISE CONTD DRY
THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ATTM WILL SUBSIDE AND
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FISHER
LONG TERM...HOLSTEN

000
FXUS63 KIWX 181759
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW. WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ATTM WILL SUBSIDE AND
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008/

SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OWING TO
RADIATIONAL SFC COOLING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LK ONT/ERIE
BLO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS PRIMARILY ACRS NERN/ERN CWA
THIS AM WL QUICKLY MIX OUT AS SFC-875MB BECOMES DRY ADIABATIC BY
LATE AM. BREADTH OF DRY AIR ABOVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WL INHIBIT
AFTN TO NO MORE THAN FEW TRANSIENT CU AT MOST. PWAT FALLING TO AOB
0.50 INCHES TDY AND CONT THROUGH FRI TO AFFORD STRONG DIURNAL TEMP
SWINGS. CORE OF 925MB THERMAL TROF ACRS ERN CWA WITH ATMOS QUICKLY
DECOUPLING TONIGHT...WL AFFORD COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF
CWA INTO MID 40S. CUTOFF WAVE ACRS NERN NM TO WEAKEN/STALL AS IT
ENTERS OZARKS/LWR OHIO VLY LT FRI. DIURNAL PLUS FOR FRIDAY AFTN AS
925MB TEMPS WARM AROUND 4C/24HR AS BL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT/SRLY AS
DEEP LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND AND IN ADVANCE OF
SLWLY SWD PROGRESSING NRN STREAM FRONT IN TEMPORARY FLAT/SUMMER-
LIKE NRN STREAM UL PATTERN.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIOD WILL FEATURE PAC NW TROUGHING AND MEAN RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER RIDGE TOPPING PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MERGE WITHOUT THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX...
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT. THIS FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE MAIN
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE NE CONUS.
FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE DISPLAYING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG
THE FINER DETAILS...MAINLY PERTAINING TO THE DEPTH OF TROUGHING
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL EFFECT ON THE LOCAL FORECAST IS MINIMAL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE NORM AFTER SUNDAY. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDAY WITH RIDGING PROGGED WELL
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOCAL AREA TO SEE
A CONTINUED WARMING TREND INTO MID NEXT WEEK. GEFS PROGS POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATION/S INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
BY 12Z WED...A SOLUTION THAT WOULD SPELL ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE REGION. GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DISPLAYED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE CHARTS AND GOOD
DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY WITH HAVING AN
ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE FA...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP MON-WED ABOVE
CLIMO WEIGHTED GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SAVE AN ISOLATED SH/TS THREAT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE ADVANCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PROGS
MODEST MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDER COOLING H5
TEMPS. CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...SO WILL
LEAVE WX MENTION OUT GIVEN VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN
AVIATION...FISHER

000
FXUS63 KIND 181723
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008


.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPS/SKY IN SHORT TERM.

WEAK FRONT HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING UNIFORM NE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT 18Z SFC MAP FEATURED A HIGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WHILE
LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAIN JET
AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER.

IN THE SHORT TERM...QUIET WX WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDING NE WINDS TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER AT IND WITH
A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON LIGHT NE WINDS.

MAX TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S MOST SPOTS GIVEN FCST 850MB TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE. WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW NOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS COULD TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
OF HIGHS GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND TIME OF YEAR. COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER SUN WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER LATEST MEXMOS POPS ARE
STILL BELOW CLIMO BY NEXT THU SO WE WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FCST DRY
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANY MORNING FOG ACRS THE TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY
14Z...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. UNLIMITED CIGS TDY AS STRONG HIGH
PRES ACRS THE AREA AND A POSITIVE CU RULE WL RESULT IN ZERO CLOUDS.

ATTM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH BR ON FRI MORN AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LOWER AND LIGHT E TO NE WINDS KEEP A LITTLE MIXING GOING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
PUBLIC...CO

000
FXUS63 KIND 181715
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THIS DRY AIR IN
PLACE...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR IMPACT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPS/SKY IN SHORT TERM.

AT 06Z A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA /FA/ BUT WAS
ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART. USED A BLEND.

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FA TODAY BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING A FEW
CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE
THAT DIFFERENT FROM WEDNESDAY. MET/MAV MOS ARE SIMILAR AND REFLECT
THIS WELL.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. WINDS WILL PREVENT PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...BUT STILL FEEL WITH DRY ATMS LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
COOLER MAV AT MANY LOCATIONS.

PLENTY OF SUN ON FRI WILL MODIFY AIRMASS SLIGHTLY AND PROVIDE FOR A
LITTLE WARMER DAY. MOS REFLECTS THIS WELL.

WEAK UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TO OUR SW SAT. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING
MOISTURE RETURN WITH GULF CUT OFF...BUT AT ANY RATE ANY PRECIP FROM
THIS FEATURE WOULD REMAIN WELL SW OF THE AREA. DID INCREASE CLOUDS A
BIT WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN...BUT MOSUNNY STILL COVERS
IT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE N ON SUN BUT WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED STILL ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KIND 181047
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
649 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.AVIATION...
ANY MORNING FOG ACRS THE TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY
14Z...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. UNLIMITED CIGS TDY AS STRONG HIGH
PRES ACRS THE AREA AND A POSITIVE CU RULE WL RESULT IN ZERO CLOUDS.

ATTM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH BR ON FRI MORN AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LOWER AND LIGHT E TO NE WINDS KEEP A LITTLE MIXING GOING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPS/SKY IN SHORT TERM.

AT 06Z A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA /FA/ BUT WAS
ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART. USED A BLEND.

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FA TODAY BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING A FEW
CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE
THAT DIFFERENT FROM WEDNESDAY. MET/MAV MOS ARE SIMILAR AND REFLECT
THIS WELL.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. WINDS WILL PREVENT PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...BUT STILL FEEL WITH DRY ATMS LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
COOLER MAV AT MANY LOCATIONS.

PLENTY OF SUN ON FRI WILL MODIFY AIRMASS SLIGHTLY AND PROVIDE FOR A
LITTLE WARMER DAY. MOS REFLECTS THIS WELL.

WEAK UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TO OUR SW SAT. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING
MOISTURE RETURN WITH GULF CUT OFF...BUT AT ANY RATE ANY PRECIP FROM
THIS FEATURE WOULD REMAIN WELL SW OF THE AREA. DID INCREASE CLOUDS A
BIT WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN...BUT MOSUNNY STILL COVERS
IT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE N ON SUN BUT WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED STILL ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
PUBLIC...CS

000
FXUS63 KIWX 180845
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
445 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OWING TO
RADIATIONAL SFC COOLING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LK ONT/ERIE
BLO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS PRIMARILY ACRS NERN/ERN CWA
THIS AM WL QUICKLY MIX OUT AS SFC-875MB BECOMES DRY ADIABATIC BY
LATE AM. BREADTH OF DRY AIR ABOVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WL INHIBIT
AFTN TO NO MORE THAN FEW TRANSIENT CU AT MOST. PWAT FALLING TO AOB
0.50 INCHES TDY AND CONT THROUGH FRI TO AFFORD STRONG DIURNAL TEMP
SWINGS. CORE OF 925MB THERMAL TROF ACRS ERN CWA WITH ATMOS QUICKLY
DECOUPLING TONIGHT...WL AFFORD COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF
CWA INTO MID 40S. CUTOFF WAVE ACRS NERN NM TO WEAKEN/STALL AS IT
ENTERS OZARKS/LWR OHIO VLY LT FRI. DIURNAL PLUS FOR FRIDAY AFTN AS
925MB TEMPS WARM AROUND 4C/24HR AS BL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT/SRLY AS
DEEP LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND AND IN ADVANCE OF
SLWLY SWD PROGRESSING NRN STREAM FRONT IN TEMPORARY FLAT/SUMMER-
LIKE NRN STREAM UL PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIOD WILL FEATURE PAC NW TROUGHING AND MEAN RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER RIDGE TOPPING PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MERGE WITHOUT THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX...
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT. THIS FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE MAIN
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE NE CONUS.
FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE DISPLAYING RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG
THE FINER DETAILS...MAINLY PERTAINING TO THE DEPTH OF TROUGHING
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER THE
OVERALL EFFECT ON THE LOCAL FORECAST IS MINIMAL AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE NORM AFTER SUNDAY. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDAY WITH RIDGING PROGGED WELL
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOCAL AREA TO SEE
A CONTINUED WARMING TREND INTO MID NEXT WEEK. GEFS PROGS POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD DEVIATION/S INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
BY 12Z WED...A SOLUTION THAT WOULD SPELL ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE REGION. GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DISPLAYED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE CHARTS AND GOOD
DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY WITH HAVING AN
ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE FA...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP MON-WED ABOVE
CLIMO WEIGHTED GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SAVE AN ISOLATED SH/TS THREAT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE ADVANCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PROGS
MODEST MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDER COOLING H5
TEMPS. CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...SO WILL
LEAVE WX MENTION OUT GIVEN VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR/SKC THROUGH THE PD WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. ONLY
DETAILS WRT WIND SPEED/DIR WITH VEERING AS 1030MB SFC HIGH ACRS LK
SUP MOVES TO LK ONT BY END OF FCST PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN
AVIATION...MURPHY

000
FXUS63 KIND 180635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPS/SKY IN SHORT TERM.

AT 06Z A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA /FA/ BUT WAS
ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART. USED A BLEND.

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FA TODAY BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING A FEW
CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE
THAT DIFFERENT FROM WEDNESDAY. MET/MAV MOS ARE SIMILAR AND REFLECT
THIS WELL.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. WINDS WILL PREVENT PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...BUT STILL FEEL WITH DRY ATMS LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
COOLER MAV AT MANY LOCATIONS.

PLENTY OF SUN ON FRI WILL MODIFY AIRMASS SLIGHTLY AND PROVIDE FOR A
LITTLE WARMER DAY. MOS REFLECTS THIS WELL.

WEAK UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN TO OUR SW SAT. MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING
MOISTURE RETURN WITH GULF CUT OFF...BUT AT ANY RATE ANY PRECIP FROM
THIS FEATURE WOULD REMAIN WELL SW OF THE AREA. DID INCREASE CLOUDS A
BIT WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN...BUT MOSUNNY STILL COVERS
IT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE N ON SUN BUT WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED STILL ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO
NEAR KIND BY 12Z AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION BY MIDDAY.
FEW CU OCCURRING NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT AND MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OCCURS.  DEWPOINTS SPREADS SIMILAR AS LAST NIGHT.  WINDS MAY
PICK UP A LITTLE AT KLAF SO WILL GO LIGHTER ON FOG THERE.  DEWPOINT
SPREAD HIGHER AT KIND AND WILL NOT MENTION FOG THERE.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE AT KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL FORECAST A
REPEAT OF TEMPO VSBYS 1-2 MILES THERE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY FOG QUICKLY CLEARING BY 13-14Z AND VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

AVIATION...JH/JP
PUBLIC...CS

000
FXUS63 KIWX 180517
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
115 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.AVIATION...
VFR/SKC THROUGH THE PD WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. ONLY
DETAILS WRT WIND SPEED/DIR WITH VEERING AS 1030MB SFC HIGH ACRS LK
SUP MOVES TO LK ONT BY END OF FCST PD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT TROUGH THURSDAY)...

ANOTHER FINE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. ONLY CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDS VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
THROUGH MICHIGAN. DWPTS HAVE BEEN POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY AND
RISEN TO AROUND 60 IN CENTRAL AND LOWER MICHIGAN HOWEVER MOISTURE
IS VERY SHALLOW AND SFC CONVERGENCE QUITE WEAK. VERY LOW
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND WHAT LITTLE IS PRESENT IS NOT BEING
REALIZED WITH ONLY A SCTD CU FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE BNDRY OVER
CENTRAL MI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT LIGHT DRY N TO NE FLOW WILL INVEST THE
CWA. FOG DID NOT MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH
CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE HIGHER TODAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND SOME
GRADIENT FLOW PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN...DONT
FEEL THE THREAT NECESSITATES PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR THURSDAY FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY NICE
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FCST PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND COAST BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER TO THE REGION. ONLY POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PARENT SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIMIT FORCING ALONG FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. ABSENCE OF ANY RETURN FLOW FROM GULF WILL ALSO LIMIT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WILL CONTINUE DRY FCST WITH THIS FEATURE. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AMPLIFYING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS TO CLIMB AOA 80F ON SATURDAY IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT...OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LUDINGTON
LONG TERM...LOGSDON
AVIATION...MURPHY

000
FXUS63 KIND 180437
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO
NEAR KIND BY 12Z AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION BY MIDDAY.
FEW CU OCCURRING NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT AND MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OCCURS.  DEWPOINTS SPREADS SIMILAR AS LAST NIGHT.  WINDS MAY
PICK UP A LITTLE AT KLAF SO WILL GO LIGHTER ON FOG THERE.  DEWPOINT
SPREAD HIGHER AT KIND AND WILL NOT MENTION FOG THERE.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE AT KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL FORECAST A
REPEAT OF TEMPO VSBYS 1-2 MILES THERE LATE TONIGHT.

ANY FOG QUICKLY CLEARING BY 13-14Z AND VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WERE SEEN IN THE MODELS SO
WILL USE A BLEND.

ZONAL FLOW AT H5 CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.  H85 TEMPS STAY
AROUND 12C-13C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EACH DAY.
NIGHTS WILL BE CLEAR ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATION AND COOL TEMPS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SYSTEMS PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH BUT
NOTHING IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE ALL VERY CLOSE AND WILL USE A BLEND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$
AVIATION...JH/JP
PUBLIC...SALLY