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Statement of Berrien Moore III, Ph.D. University Distinguished Professor Director of the Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space University of New Hampshire and Co-Chair, Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space National Research Council The National Academies before the The U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Space, Aeronautics, and Related Sciences Subcommittee Hearing on
“National Imperatives for Earth Science Research” 7 March 2007
Mr. Chairman, Ranking Minority Member, and members of the committee: thank you for inviting me here to testify today. My name is Berrien Moore, and I am a professor of systems research at the University of New Hampshire and Director of the Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space I appear today in my capacity as co-chair of the National Research Council (NRC)’s Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future. The National Research Council is the unit of the National Academies that is responsible for organizing independent advisory studies for the federal government on science and technology. In response to requests from NASA, NOAA, and the USGS, the NRC has recently completed a “decadal survey” of Earth science and applications from space. (“Decadal surveys” are the 10-year prioritized roadmaps that the NRC has done for 40 years for the astronomers; this is the first time it is being done for Earth science and applications from space.) Among the key tasks in the charge to the decadal survey committee were to: - Develop a consensus of the top-level scientific questions that should provide the focus for Earth and environmental observations in the period 2005-2020; and
- Develop a prioritized list of recommended space programs, missions, and supporting activities to address these questions.
The NRC survey committee has prepared an extensive report in response to this charge, which I am pleased to be able to summarize here today. Over 100 leaders in the Earth science community participated on the survey steering committee or its seven study panels. It is noteworthy that this was the first Earth science decadal survey, and the committee and panel members did an excellent job in fulfilling the charge and establishing a consensus – a task many previously considered impossible. A copy of the full report has also been provided for your use. The committee’s vision is encapsulated in the following declaration, first stated in the committee’s April 2005 Interim Report: [1] “Understanding the complex, changing planet on which we live, how it supports life, and how human activities affect its ability to do so in the future is one of the greatest intellectual challenges facing humanity. It is also one of the most important challenges for society as it seeks to achieve prosperity, health, and sustainability.” As detailed in the committee’s final report, and as we were profoundly reminded by the latest report from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world faces significant and profound environmental challenges: shortages of clean and accessible freshwater, degradation of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, increases in soil erosion, changes in the chemistry of the atmosphere, declines in fisheries, and above all the rapid pace of substantial changes in climate. These changes are not isolated; they interact with each other and with natural variability in complex ways that cascade through the environment across local, regional, and global scales. Addressing these societal challenges requires that we confront key scientific questions related to ice sheets and sea level change, large-scale and persistent shifts in precipitation and water availability, transcontinental air pollution, shifts in ecosystem structure and function in response to climate change, impacts of climate change on human health, and occurrence of extreme events, such as hurricanes, floods and droughts, heat waves, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Yet at a time when the need has never been greater, we are faced with an Earth observation program that will dramatically diminish in capability over the next 5-10 years. The Interim Report described how satellite observations have been critical to scientific efforts to understand the Earth as a system of connected components, including the land, oceans, atmosphere, biosphere, and solid-Earth. It also gave examples of how these observations have served the nation, helping to save lives and protect property, strengthening national security, and contributing to the growth of our economy [2] through provision of timely environmental information. The Interim Report documented that NASA had cancelled, scaled back, or delayed at least six planned missions (Table 1), including a Landsat continuity mission. This led to the main finding in the Interim Report: “this system of environmental satellites is at risk of collapse.” | Canceled, Descoped, or Delayed Earth Observation Missions (from the April 2005 Pre-Publication of the Interim Report of the Decadal Survey on Earth Science and Applications from Space) Table 1 | | Mission | Measurement | Societal Benefit | Status | | Global Precipitation | Precipitation | Reduced vulnerability to | Delayed | | Measurement (GPM) | | floods and droughts; improved capability to manage water resources in arid regions; improved forecasts of hurricanes | | | Atmospheric Soundings from | Temperature and water vapor | Protection of life and property | Canceled | | Geostationary Orbit (GIFTS— | | through improved weather forecasts | | | Geostationary Imaging Fourier | | and severe storm warnings | | | Transform Spectrometer) | | | | | Ocean Vector Winds (active | Wind speed and direction | Improved severe weather warnings | Canceled | | scatterometer follow-on to | near the ocean surface | to ships at sea; improved crop | | | QuikSCAT) | | planning and yields through better predictions of El Niño | | | Landsat Data Continuity—bridge | Land cover | Monitoring of deforestation; | Canceled | | mission (to fill gap between | | identification of mineral resources; | | | Landsat-7 and NPOESS) | | tracking of the conversion of agricultural land to other uses | | | Glory | Optical properties of aerosols; | Improved scientific understanding | Canceled | | | solar irradiance | of factors that force climate change | | | Wide Swath Ocean Altimeter | Sea level in two dimensions | Monitoring of coastal currents, | Instrument canceled— | | (on the Ocean Surface Topography Mission, OSTM) | | eddies, and tides, all of which affect fisheries, navigation, and ocean climate | descope of an enhanced OSTM | Since the publication of the Interim Report, the Hydros and Deep Space Climate Observatory missions were cancelled; the flagship Global Precipitation Mission was delayed for another two and a half years; significant cuts were made to NASA’s Research and Analysis program; the NPOESS Preparatory Project mission was delayed for a year and a half; a key atmospheric profiling sensor planned for the next generation of NOAA geostationary satellites was canceled; and cost overruns led to the NPOESS program undergoing a “Nunn-McCurdy” review. The recertified NPOESS program delays the first launch by 3 years, eliminates 2 of the planned 6 spacecraft, and de-manifests or de-scopes a number of instruments, with particular consequences for measurement of the forcing and feedbacks that need to be measured to understand the magnitude, pace, and consequences of global and regional climate change. It is against this backdrop that I discuss the present report. The Decadal Survey presents a vision for the Earth science program; an analysis of the existing Earth observing system and recommendations to help restore its capabilities; an assessment of and recommendations for new observations and missions needed for the next decade; an examination of and recommendations concerning effective application of those observations; and an analysis of how best to sustain that observation and applications system. A critical element of the study’s vision is its emphasis on the need to place the benefits to society that can be provided by an effective Earth observation system on a par with scientific advancement. The integrated suite of space missions and supporting and complementary activities that are described in our report will support the development of numerous applications of high importance to society. The expected benefits of the fully-implemented program include: - Human Health
More reliable forecasts of infectious and vector-borne disease outbreaks for disease control and response. - Earthquake Early Warning
Identification of active faults and prediction of the likelihood of earthquakes to enable effective investment in structural improvements, inform land-use decisions, and provide early warning of impending earthquakes. - Weather Prediction
Longer-term, more reliable weather forecasts. - Sea Level Rise
Climate predictions based on better understanding of ocean temperature and ice sheet volume changes and feedback to enable effective coastal community planning. - Climate Prediction
Robust estimates of primary climate forcings for improved climate forecasts, including local predictions of the effects of climate change; determination in time and space of sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. - Freshwater Availability
More accurate and longer-term precipitation and drought forecasts to improve water resource management. - Ecosystem Services
More reliable land-use, agricultural, and ocean productivity forecasts to improve planting and harvesting schedules and fisheries management. - Air Quality
More reliable air quality forecasts to enable effective urban pollution management. - Extreme Storm Warnings
Longer-term, more reliable storm track forecasts and intensification predictions to enable effective evacuation planning. I will now turn to a brief discussion of the budgetary implications of our recommendations. The President’s FY ’08 budget request for NASA Earth science is a mixture of some good news and bad news. The primary bit of good news is the small bottom line increases for 2008 and 2009. These increases address the needs of currently planned missions already in development, the completion of which is consistent with the decadal survey’s baseline set of assumptions. Unfortunately, the out-year budgets reveal fundamental flaws in the budget and NASA’s Earth science plans - the budgets are totally inadequate to accomplish the decadal survey’s recommendations. In 2010, the Earth science budget begins to decline again and reaches a 20-year low, in real terms, in 2012. This decline reflects that the 2008 budget contains no provision for new missions, nor does it allow us to address the significant challenges facing our planet. These disturbing broad budgetary trends are captured in Figure 1. Figure 1: The NASA Earth Science Budget in constant FY06 dollars (normalized for full-cost accounting across entire timescale; assumes 3%/year inflation from 2006 to 2012). Mission supporting activities include Earth Science Research, Applied Sciences, Education and Outreach, and Earth Science Technology. Before turning to NOAA, I want to emphasize that the problems in the out-years appear to be due entirely to the lack of adequate resources. In fact, at a NASA town hall meeting that followed the release of our report on January 15, 2007 at the 2007 annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society, the head of NASA’s Earth Science program, who appears today with me as a witness, stated that the recommendations in our report provided the roadmap for the Earth Science program we should have. The NOAA NESDIS budget picture is also a mixture of some good and bad news. In this case, the budget takes a small downturn in FY08, followed by significant growth in FY09–FY10, before turning down again in FY11 (Figure 2). It remains to be seen whether this ~$200 M/year growth in FY09 and FY10 can enable restoration of some of the lost capabilities to NPOESS and GOES-R. There appears to be no budgetary wedge for new starts. Finally, for a variety of reasons, the NOAA NESDIS budget is far from transparent, especially in the out-years. Figure 2: The NOAA NESDIS Budget in constant 2006 dollars (assumes 3 percent/year inflation from 2006-2012). Mission supporting activities include NOAA’s Data Centers and Information Services, Data System Enhancements, Data Exploitation, and Information Services, and Facilities and Critical Infrastructure Improvements. As detailed in our report, between 2006 and the end of the decade, the number of operating U.S. missions will decrease dramatically and the number of operating sensors and instruments on NASA spacecraft, most of which are well past their nominal lifetimes, may decrease by some 35 percent. If present trends continue, reductions of some 50% are possible by 2015. Were this to pass, we would have chosen, in effect, to partially blind ourselves at a time of increasing need to monitor, predict, and develop responses to numerous global environmental challenges. Vital climate records, such as the measurement of solar irradiance and the Earth’s response, will be placed in jeopardy or lost. Measurements of aerosols, ozone profiles, sea surface height, sources and sinks of important greenhouse gases, patterns of air and coastal pollution, and even winds in the atmosphere are among the numerous critical measurements that are at risk or simply will not occur if we follow the path of the President 2008 budget and the proposed out-year run out. Taking this path, we will also forgo the economic benefits that would have come, for example, from better management of energy and water, and improved weather predictions. [3] Without action on the report’s recommendations, a decades-long improvements in the skill in which we make weather forecasts will stall, or even reverse; this may be accompanied by diminished capacity to forecast severe weather events and manage disaster response and relief efforts. The nation’s capabilities to forecast space weather will also be at risk, with impacts on commercial aviation and space technology. [4] The world is facing significant environmental challenges: shortages of clean and accessible freshwater, degradation of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, increases in soil erosion, changes in the chemistry of the atmosphere, declines in fisheries, and the likelihood of significant changes in climate. These changes are occurring over and above the stresses imposed by the natural variability of a dynamic planet, as well as the effects of past and existing patterns of conflict, poverty, disease, and malnutrition. Further, these changes interact with each other and with natural variability in complex ways that cascade through the environment across local, regional, and global scales. To cope responsibly with these challenges requires information about our planet; it requires us to expand our scientific basis for foreseeing potential changes and patterns, and this science is dependent upon expanded space-based observation. The needed new missions are set forth in the Decadal Survey; these missions need to be implemented in the coming decade. I would like to thank the Committee for inviting me to testify, and I would be delighted to answer any questions.
[1] NRC, Earth Science and Applications from Space: Urgent Needs and Opportunities to Serve the Nation, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2005. Also available online at < http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11281.html>. [2] It has been estimated that one third of the $10 trillion U.S. economy is weather-sensitive or environment-sensitive (NRC, Satellite Observations of the Earth's Environment: Accelerating the Transition of Research to Operations, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2003). [3] In a typical hurricane season, NOAA’s forecasts, warnings, and the associated emergency responses result in a $3 billion savings. Two-thirds of this savings, $2 billion, is attributed to the reduction in hurricane-related deaths, and one-third of this savings, $1 billion, is attributed to a reduction in property-related damage because of preparedness actions. Advances in satellite information, data assimilation techniques, and more powerful computers to run more sophisticated numerical models, have lead to more accurate weather forecasts and warnings. Today, NOAA’s five-day hurricane forecasts, which utilize satellite data, are as accurate as its three-day forecasts were 10 years ago. The additional advanced notice has a significant positive effect on many sectors of our economy. See statement and references therein of Edward Morris, Director, Office of Space Commercialization, NOAA, Hearing on Space and U.S. National Power, Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, U.S. House of Representatives, June 21, 2006. Available at: <http://www.legislative.noaa.gov/Testimony/morris062106.pdf>.
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