Wall Street Journal Editorial
March 7, 2008
Congress is starting to move its annual budget outline, and
the Members are lucky there's a hot Presidential race. Maybe
the voters won't notice that "fiscal discipline,"
in the phony Beltway phrase, is less disciplined than ever.
Look no further than Kent Conrad, the Senate Budget Chairman
and godfather of "pay as you go" budgeting. Paygo
requires that new entitlement spending and tax cuts be offset
dollar for dollar with spending cuts or tax increases. As
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi put it: "Instead of compiling
trillions of dollars of debt onto our children and grandchildren,
we will restore pay as you go budget discipline."
Well, Mr. Conrad has just announced that paygo has officially
gone. Last month he and his fellow Democrats joined hands
with Republicans to pass a "stimulus" bill that
pads the budget deficit this year by $152 billion. No paygo
offsets. Now he's unveiling a budget for fiscal 2008 to add
another $35 billion stimulus, this time in spending for home
heating subsidies, unemployment insurance, and road projects.
Asked if the $35 billion would be offset under paygo, Mr.
Conrad replied that it wouldn't be a stimulus if other spending
had to be cut.
Mr. Conrad has also announced that the Senate will suspend
paygo in order to pass another one-year fix sparing some 20
million taxpayers from the Alternative Minimum Tax. That'll
cost $65 billion. A year ago, Mr. Conrad claimed it would
be "unbelievably irresponsible" to waive paygo for
the AMT fix. This year he didn't even try to enforce the paygo
rule, saying, "I can read the tea leaves" in the
Senate. But then he claims to "balance the budget"
in 2013 by assuming that these same 20 million mostly middle
class tax filers will pay the AMT that year.
It gets better. Mr. Conrad is also a leading backer of the
farm subsidy bill now in House-Senate conference. That beauty
exceeds paygo rules by at least $10 billion through the scam
of shifting the timing of the payments outside the five-year
budget window.
As it happens, the farm bill also exposes the real purpose
of paygo -- to make spending easier but tax-cutting harder.
The farm bill is scheduled to expire later this month and
the cost of extending it over 10 years is $597 billion. But
does paygo require offsetting all the cost of the farm bill?
Heavens no. The cost of extending such entitlement programs
is already imbedded into the budget "baseline,"
and thus these programs get automatic extensions. Only new
and expanded benefits have to be "paid for."
Meanwhile the Bush tax cuts, which are scheduled to expire
at the end of 2010, are not part of the revenue baseline,
so extending the capital gains and dividend tax cuts requires
budget cuts or tax increases of $215 billion. Paygo thus virtually
guarantees a gigantic tax increase in 2011.
Meanwhile, Mr. Conrad's budget adds $18 billion of new domestic
spending while it rejects every penny of the $91 billion in
Medicare savings over five years that President Bush proposed
earlier this year. Medicare is easily the biggest driver of
future federal spending, but Democrats won't agree to trim
its growth even to 5% a year from 7.5%. As we say, Democrats
are lucky no one is paying attention.