Hurricane DENNIS

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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

FIXES FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION HAS BEEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DENNIS IS APPARENTLY WEAKER
THAN EARLIER PREDICTED.  THIS MAY IN PART BE A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL
STEERING FLOW INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LAST NIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY...SOME OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THEIR EARLIER SOLUTIONS.  THIS NECESSITATES AN
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK.  ADDITIONALLY...THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE NEW TRACK
AND WIND FIELD FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.

RECON FOUND A RATHER LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 100 KT AT THE 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL.  THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ABOUT 90 KT. 
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS WELL-ORGANIZED AND THE EYE IS STARTING TO
BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DENNIS BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN
24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE ONLY OBVIOUS POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS THE INTERACTION WITH THE LANDMASS OF
CUBA.  SINCE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EFFECT OF LAND DEPENDS ON THE
DETAILS OF THE TRACK...THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH SHIPS AND
DECAY SHIPS.  HOWEVER...IF DENNIS REMAINS MOSTLY OVER WATER IT
COULD EASILY STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.

HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD.

FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 18.0N  75.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 19.3N  77.3W    95 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.3N  79.8W   100 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.8N  81.8W    90 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.7N  83.5W   105 KT
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 28.7N  86.2W   105 KT
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 33.5N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     12/1200Z 37.5N  90.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 
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