Hurricane WILMA

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HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.  A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO.    A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE.  HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO.  THIS IS ALSO ABOUT  375
MILES... 605 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR  3 MPH... 6 KM/HR.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND WILMA COULD AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.  AN AUTOMATED STATION AT THE ISLA MUJERES
MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH... 86 KM/HR...
WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH... 111 KM/HR.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL.  STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  STORM SURGE
FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 50 INCHES.  RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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