Hurricane WILMA

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HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...NORTHERN EYEWALL NEARING COZUMEL...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA
APPROACHES...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
 
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR COZUMEL AND THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MIDDAY TODAY. 
HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLY BEING EXPERIENCED IN COZUMEL AND ADJACENT AREAS. CANCUN
RADAR SHOWS STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND CANCUN.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE 
BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WILMA REGAINS
CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. 
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA.  OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE KEYS...WITH
SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
 
NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. 
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...20.0 N... 86.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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