Hurricane WILMA

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HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL242005
0900Z WED OCT 19 2005
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  82.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  884 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE  90SE  90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  82.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  82.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N  83.4W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  90SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N  84.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N  85.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N  86.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.5N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 33.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  82.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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